MikhailLF Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 EUR/USD Today, during the Asian session, the EUR/USD pair is steadily strengthening, renewing local highs since February 12. The growing risks of the further spread of coronavirus outside of China contribute to a noticeable increase in volatility, which supports EUR. At the same time, investors are worried about EU statistics, which indicates a slowdown in economic growth. Moreover, traders are increasingly talking about a possible recession in the German or Italian economies. On Thursday, the market is focused on a block of statistics on EU business sentiment for February. With the opening of the American session, analysts are waiting for the publication of data on the dynamics of US Durable Goods Orders, as well as updated data on Q4 2019 US GDP. GBP/USD Today, during the Asian session, the GBP/USD pair is growing slightly, being corrected after yesterday’s decline, which has thrown off GBP from local highs of February 19. GBP is under pressure of the expectations that the Bank of England may decide to lower the interest rate closer to the summer. Such a decision can be made to support the national economy due to the negative effects of coronavirus and uncertainty regarding trade negotiations between the UK and the EU. In turn, the instrument is supported by optimistic forecasts regarding the new budget, which is due to be submitted on March 11 by Finance Minister Rishi Sunak. The market expects a significant increase in budget spending, which should contribute to the restoration of the British economy. NZD/USD Today, during the Asian session, the NZD/USD pair shows flat dynamics, trading near local lows since October 17. Now the instrument has added insignificant 0.02% and is preparing to retest the level of 0.6300 for a breakout. NZD maintains multidirectional dynamics amid the publication of ambiguous macroeconomic statistics from New Zealand. Thus, ANZ Business Confidence for January fell from –13.2 to –19.4 points with a forecast of –7.9 points. NBNZ Own Activity for the same period decreased from +17.2 to +12% with an optimistic forecast of +24.7%. Q4 2019 private capital expenditures fell by 2.8% QoQ after a weakening of 0.4% QoQ in the previous period. Analysts had expected an increase of +0.4% QoQ. Investors were also disappointed with data on the dynamics of exports from New Zealand. At the end of January, the indicator slowed down from +$5.5 billion to +$4.73 billion, which was worse than market expectations and helped to reduce the trade surplus. USD/JPY Today, during the Asian session, the USD/JPY pair is falling, returning to a downtrend in the short term after an attempt at yesterday’s corrective growth. USD and JPY are fighting for the title of the safest currency amid a notable increase in risks due to the spread of coronavirus and a slowdown in the global economy. Yesterday, USD was supported by positive data from the United States. So, New Home Sales for January grew by 7.9% MoM after rising 2.3% MoM last month. Analysts had expected an increase in dynamics to +3.5% MoM. A large block of key statistics from Japan will be released on Friday. Investors are interested in data on the dynamics of retail sales, the labor market, and industrial production for January. XAU/USD Today, during the Asian session, gold prices show a positive trend, continuing the development of the “bullish” impulse formed yesterday. Demand for the instrument is again noticeably recovering amid growing risks of the spread of coronavirus. Numerous outbreaks of disease outside of China have scared investors who are looking for rescue in shelter assets. Also, amid the spread of the epidemic, the market actively talked about possible stimulation measures that the leading Central Banks of the world will take if necessary. In particular, the Fed and ECB are expected to reduce rates. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 EUR/USD EUR shows a slight decrease against USD during today's Asian session, correcting after a sharp yesterday's increase in the instrument which led to the renewal of local highs of February 6. The reason for the strengthening of the "bullish" sentiment on Thursday was the weak macroeconomic statistics from the US, which only strengthened market concerns about a possible interest rate cut by the Fed. In turn, European data came close to their forecasts, although they did not radiate much optimism either. One way or another, published statistics confirmed that the US economy grew by 2.1% YoY in Q4 2019. At the same time, GDP Price Index for the same period slowed down from 1.5% to 1.3%, which turned out to be worse than market expectations of 1.4%. Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices also weakened from 1.6% QoQ to 1.3% QoQ with a neutral outlook. Today, investors are focused on German data on Unemployment Rate and Consumer Inflation for February. The US will publish statistics on Personal Income and Spending for January. GBP/USD GBP is trading near zero against USD during today's Asian session, trading near the local lows of February 20. Pressure on GBP intensified amid growing concerns about Britain’s ability to negotiate a trade deal with the EU. The day before, UK officials reiterated that they were not ready to make concessions to the detriment of the country's sovereignty for the sake of concluding a deal with the EU. In addition, investors are somewhat disappointed with the Treasury’s reaction to the plans of the new UK finance minister, Rishi Sunak, to sharply increase government spending and reduce taxes. Apparently, Sunak will not be able to implement the initial plan, which may push the Bank of England to new measures to stimulate the national economy. AUD/USD AUD declines against USD during today's Asian session, updating record lows of March 2009. The instrument loses about 0.63%, testing the level of 0.6520 for a breakdown. Investors are again selling AUD amid growing risks of the further spread of coronavirus outside of China, which is increasingly threatening global financial stability and pushing regulators to new stimulation measures. Uncertain macroeconomic statistics from the USA published the day before contributed to the appearance of a moderate growth of the pair, of which there is currently no trace. Friday's data from Australia so far remain without attention. Meanwhile, Private Sector Credit in January accelerated from 0.2% MoM to 0.3% MoM, which turned out to be better than market expectations. In annual terms, the indicator grew by 2.5% YoY after an increase of 2.4% YoY in the previous month. USD/JPY USD is actively falling against JPY during today's Asian session. The instrument loses about 0.58%, testing the level of 109.00 for a breakdown. JPY again seized the initiative for some period and now it attracts investors as a safe asset. In turn, the macroeconomic statistics from Japan published today leaves much to be desired. Tokyo Core CPI slowed down in February from 0.7% YoY to 0.5% YoY, which turned out to be worse than market expectations of 0.6% YoY. Unemployment Rate in January rose sharply from 2.2% to 2.4% with a neutral forecast. Retail Sales in January rose by 0.6% MoM after rising by 0.2% MoM in the previous month. Analysts had expected the increase of 2.4% MoM. Industrial Production Rates in January continued to decline by 2.5% YoY after a decrease of 3.1% YoY in December. Analysts predicted a more significant decrease of 9.5% YoY. In monthly terms, production slowed down from 1.2% MoM to 0.8% MoM with a forecast of growth of 0.2% MoM. XAU/USD Gold prices show an uncertain downtrend during today's Asian session, correcting after rising for two consecutive sessions. Quotations are still supported by increased risks of the further spread of coronavirus outside of China. In addition, markets are concerned about a possible reduction in interest rates by leading regulators. Macroeconomic statistics from the USA published the day before did not add optimism to USD; however, low demand for risk continues to support it as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 EUR/USD EUR has shown ambiguous growth against USD during today's Asian session, updating monthly highs at the opening. The growth of the instrument was slightly corrected and EUR retreated from its highs to 1.1050, maintaining the general "bullish" sentiment. Investors are still focused on macroeconomic statistics from Germany, which appeared at the end of last week. Investors were optimistic about the decrease in Unemployment Change in Germany in February by 10K after a decrease of 4K in the previous month. Experts expected the growth by 3K. At the same time, the Unemployment Rate in February remained at the same level of 5%. Consumer inflation data also supported EUR. German Consumer Price Index in February showed an increase of 0.4% MoM and 1.7% YoY, which was slightly better than market expectations of 0.3% MoM and 1.7% YoY. Harmonized Price Index for the same period accelerated from 1.6% YoY to 1.7% YoY, exceeding forecasts. GBP/USD GBP shows corrective growth against USD during today's Asian session, retreating from the lows of October 2019, updated at the end of trading last week. The instrument is testing the level of 1.2820 for a breakout. The development of corrective sentiment, in addition to the technical factors of short profit taking, is facilitated by the publication of contradictory macroeconomic statistics from the US last Friday. In particular, investors were disappointed by the weak dynamics of Personal Spending of US citizens. In January, the growth in spending dynamics slowed from 0.4% MoM to 0.2% MoM, which turned out to be worse than market expectations of 0.3% MoM. At the same time, the Chicago PMI in February increased from 42.9 to 49 points against the forecast of growth to 45.9 points. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for the same period slightly strengthened from 100.9 to 101 points. During the day, investors expect the publication of macroeconomic statistics on business activity in the manufacturing sector of the UK and the USA. AUD/USD AUD has shown a sharp increase during today's Asian session, quickly retreating from record lows updated last Friday. Macroeconomic statistics from Australia provides moderate support for AUD on Monday, while USD remains vulnerable after hints of a possible reduction in interest rates by the Fed. Commonwealth Bank’s Manufacturing PMI rose from 49.6 to 50.2 points in February against a forecast of growth of only 49.8 points. At the same time, AiG Manufacturing PMI fell in February from 45.4 to 44.3 points. The inflation data from TD Securities also turned out to be negative. In February, prices fell by 0.1% MoM after rising by 0.3% MoM in January. Pressure on the instrument is provided by weak data from China, which continue to testify to the negative consequences of the spread of coronavirus in China and beyond. Caixin Manufacturing PMI in February fell sharply from 51.1 to 40.3 points, which was worse than market expectations of 45.7 points. USD/JPY USD is strengthening against JPY during today's Asian session, correcting after a sharp decline at the end of last trading week. The growth of USD is largely technical in nature, while the market still cannot decide on the safest assets amid the growing risks of the spread of coronavirus. Published macroeconomic statistics from the US and Japan last Friday turned out to be mixed, but Japanese data had a slightly greater effect. The statistics of the new week so far remain in the background. Japan's Manufacturing PMI from Jibun Bank in February rose from 47.6 to 47.8 points, which turned out to be better than neutral market forecasts. Capital Spending in Q4 2019 decreased by 3.5% QoQ after an increase of 7.1% QoQ in the previous period. Analysts had expected a positive trend to remain at 1.6% QoQ. XAU/USD Gold prices are recovering during today's Asian session, correcting after a sharp decline at the end of last week, when traders fixed long profits. Meanwhile, support for the instrument is still provided by the situation with the spread of coronavirus outside of China. Demand for safe assets is also supported by the expectation of new stimulus measures from leading financial regulators. Amid a sharp decline in the US stock market, US Fed Chairman Jerome Powell issued a statement calling the coronavirus a serious dynamic risk for the US economy, not excluding new support measures through interest rate cuts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 EUR/USD Today, during the Asian session, the EUR/USD pair is trading in an upward direction, continuing the development of the “bullish” rally from February 21. Now EUR is adding about 0.20% and is testing the level of 1.1150 for a breakout. It is supported by expectations of easing monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve. The risks of a decrease in the rate by the regulator significantly increased after last Friday, the head of the regulator Jerome Powell noted that he was ready to act to neutralize the negative effect of the coronavirus epidemic. Macroeconomic statistics released on Monday were ambiguous again. EUR was supported by Manufacturing PMI in Europe. So, in February, the German Markit PMI rose from 47.8 to 48.0 points, which was better than analysts' neutral forecasts. EU PMI rose from 49.1 to 49.2 points, which also exceeded experts' expectations. GBP/USD Today, during the Asian session, the GBP/USD pair is growing within the correction, departing from local lows renewed at the end of the last trading week. The instrument is under pressure by the start of trade negotiations between the UK and the EU, which may be complicated, given the position of London on this issue. The parties need to agree on the access of the UK to a single market, as well as resolve the issue with the Irish border. In some cases, the EU insists on compliance with European laws, which Boris Johnson categorically rejects. Monday’s Macroeconomic UK statistics did not significantly support GBP. Thus, Manufacturing PMI for February fell from 51.9 to 51.7 points against the forecast of a decrease to 51.8 points. AUD/USD Today, during the Asian session, the AUD/USD pair is growing uncertainly, continuing to develop the correction impulse formed yesterday. The dynamics is developing against the background of the publication of the minutes of the RBA meeting, which indicates a decrease in the interest rate from 0.75% to a new record low of 0.50%. Although market forecasts presupposed that the rate would not be changed during this meeting, investors were optimistic about the decision of the Australian regulator and only strengthened the belief that the Fed could also decide to mitigate monetary policy. Australia's macroeconomic statistics released on Tuesday was ambiguous. Traders were disappointed by the negative dynamics of building permits (–15.3% MoM compared to the previous +3.9% MoM) but supported the data on the dynamics of new home sales in January from HIA: +5.7% MoM +2% MoM in December. USD/JPY Today, during the Asian session, the USD/JPY pair is declining and is currently compensating for yesterday's growth of the American currency. The “bearish” dynamics develops against the expectations of easing of the US Federal Reserve monetary policy due to the coronavirus epidemic. Goldman Sachs analysts believe that the regulator may decide to lower the rate at the meeting on March 18, and during the year will resort to another decrease of 0.50%. Monday’s US macroeconomic statistics also put pressure on the instrument. So, the Markit for February showed a slight decrease from 50.8 to 50.7 points. ISM Manufacturing PMI fell from 50.9 to 50.1 points, which was significantly worse than market forecasts for a decrease to 50.5 points. The production index of gradual acceleration of inflation from ISM in February fell from 53.3 to 45.9 points with a forecast of 51.0 points. XAU/USD Today, during the Asian session, the gold prices are rising, recovering from a sharp decline last Friday due to a sharp closing pf the positions by investors. Now, the price is supported by the spread of coronavirus. Investors are preparing for a possible easing of monetary policy by the world's leading central banks. Today, the RBA unexpectedly lowered its rate, which only strengthened the market's belief that the Fed would soon decide to decrease it, too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 EUR/USD EUR is correcting against USD during today's Asian session, falling after an 8-day rally, which brought EUR to new highs since the beginning of the year. The steady increase in EUR over the past two weeks was caused by the closure of part of the carry trade positions against the backdrop of increasing risks of the spread of the coronavirus epidemic. Now, under the threat of lower interest rates by global financial regulators, the focus of attention of European investors is changing significantly. The finance ministers and bank managers of the largest economies in the world (G7) agreed on readiness for the most decisive action to protect the global economy. After a telephone conversation, having held an emergency meeting, the Fed lowered the interest rate immediately by 0.50%, reducing speculation regarding the March meeting of the regulator to nothing. However, some analysts believe that at the scheduled meeting in March, the regulator can go for additional stimulation measures. GBP/USD GBP is trading near zero against USD during today's Asian session, awaiting the emergence of new drivers. GBP managed to recover slightly the day before, having received support from the sudden reduction in the interest rate by the Fed. However, the general negative sentiment regarding the situation with the coronavirus epidemic and the uncertain prospects of trade negotiations between the UK and the EU kept the currency near the lows of October 2019. In addition, after the Fed's action, investors expect similar actions from the Bank of England. Analysts estimate that the British regulator may reduce the interest rate by 0.25% at a meeting on March 26, and by the end of the calendar year may take another similar reduction. NZD/USD NZD shows ambiguous trading dynamics against USD during today's Asian session, trading near zero. The "bullish" impulse that has formed in the market after an unexpected decrease in the interest rate by the Fed is rapidly weakening, and investors expect similar actions from other regulators. The RBNZ will hold a meeting on the rate on March 25, and so far the risks of easing monetary policy are very high. New Zealand macroeconomic statistics released today do not strengthen the instrument. Building Permits in January decreased by 2% MoM after growth by 9.8% MoM in the previous month. Analysts had expected decline of 0.9% MoM. ANZ Commodity Price Index collapsed by 2.1% MoM in February after a decline of 0.9% MoM in January. Analysts had expected decrease of 0.8% MoM. USD/JPY USD is strengthening against JPY during today's Asian session, recovering from a sharp fall of the instrument yesterday, which took place against the background of a sudden decrease in the interest rate by the Fed immediately by 0.50%. USD is adding about 0.10%, testing the levels of 107.40-107.50 for a breakout. The reason for the emergence of positive dynamics was the technical factors of correction of short profit, as investors are still worried about uncertain prospects and show considerable caution. In addition, the market does not receive the most confident macroeconomic statistics. Jibun Bank Services PMI in Japan fell from 51 points to 47 points in February, which, however, was 0.3 points better than market expectations. Caixin Services PMI fell from 51.8 to 26.5 points over the same period. XAU/USD Gold prices rose sharply at yesterday's trading, completely leveling the negative dynamics of the instrument at the end of last trading week. A slight increase can be seen during today's Asian session; however, the "bullish" activity is noticeably reduced. The reason for the surge in purchasing activity for the instrument was a sudden decrease in the interest rate by the Fed after a conference of G7 finance ministers. The US regulator set a precedent, and now investors are even more nervous, expecting similar actions from other banks. The focus of investors today is a block of macroeconomic statistics from the US on business activity from ISM and Markit. In addition, closer to the end of the afternoon session, the Fed will publish its updated economic review, the so-called Beige Book. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted March 5, 2020 Share Posted March 5, 2020 EUR/USD Today, during the Asian session, the EUR/USD pair is growing slightly, being corrected after yesterday’s active decline, when the euro moved away from local highs of the beginning of the year and stopped the protracted “bullish” rally. The weakening of the instrument was facilitated by a decrease in the Fed interest rate at an emergency meeting of the regulator by 50 basis points to 1.25%. Now, investors expect the European regulator to lower the deposit rate next week, and may also expand the quantitative incentive program. Macroeconomic statistics from Europe published on Wednesday were ambiguous. Thus, German Composite Markit PMI for February fell from 51.1 to 50.7 points with a neutral forecast. EU Composite Markit PMI adjusted from 52.8 to 52.6 points, which also was worse than market expectations. GBP/USD Today, during the Asian session, the GBP/USD pair is trading flat, consolidating near local highs since February 28. Since Tuesday, the pound has been developing a slight correction, which is supported by a sudden decrease in the interest rate of the US Federal Reserve and expectations of the first results of trade negotiations between the UK and the EU. Also, on March 11, traders wait for the publication of the UK budget from the new Minister of Finance, Rishi Sunak, which is expected to significantly increase budget spending and bring several changes to the country's fiscal policy. On Thursday, traders are focused on the publication of data on the dynamics of approved mortgages in the UK in January from the BBA. At the end of the afternoon session, Mark Carney, the head of the Bank of England, will speak. AUD/USD Today, during the Asian session, the AUD/USD pair shows flat dynamics, consolidating near the level of 0.6620 and maintaining the “bullish” momentum formed at the beginning of the week. Support for the Australian currency is provided by positive national macroeconomic statistics, as well as a decrease in the interest rate of the US Federal Reserve by 50 basis points. On Wednesday, investors with a fair amount of optimism met data on the dynamics of Australia's GDP. Q4 2019 GDP grew by 0.5% QoQ, which was 0.2% better than market expectations. In annual terms, economic growth accelerated from +1.7% YoY to +2.2% YoY, exceeding market forecasts of +1.9% YoY. However, Thursday’s statistics leaves much to be desired. Export volumes from Australia in January decreased by 3% after an increase of 1% over the previous period. Imports in January fell by 3%, which ultimately led to a reduction in the trade surplus from 5376 million to 5210 million Australian dollars. USD/JPY Today, during the Asian session, the USD/JPY pair is falling again, retreating after yesterday’s correctional growth, which was supported by the publication of moderately optimistic macroeconomic statistics from the USA. Now, the dollar has lost about 0.16%, testing the level of 107.30 for a breakdown. Yesterday’s data indicated a sharp increase in the February US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI from 55.5 to 57.3 points, which was significantly better than market expectations of 54.9 points. ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment also rose significantly from 53.1 to 55.6 points with a forecast of 54.1 points. ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders for the same period increased from 56.2 to 63.1 points against market expectations for growth of only 56.3 points. XAU/USD Today, during the Asian session, gold prices show flat dynamics, consolidating after a sharp increase on Tuesday, when the US Federal Reserve unexpectedly cut its interest rate by 50 basis points at once, recognizing a significant negative risk from the further spread of the coronavirus epidemic. Also, the American regulator was one of the first to decide on a significant easing of monetary policy, and now the market expects similar actions from almost all the world's leading central banks. Moreover, analysts believe that the Fed will take another reduction before the end of this year. On Thursday, investors are focused on a block of macroeconomic statistics from the United States on the dynamics of applications for unemployment benefits and production orders for January. The centerpiece of all macroeconomic publications is Friday when the US unveils February labor market data. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted March 6, 2020 Share Posted March 6, 2020 EUR/USD EUR is consolidating together with USD during today's Asian session. The instrument is trading near 1.2330, slightly departing from the local highs of August 2019, updated the day before. EUR is supported by alarming market sentiment due to the further spread of the coronavirus epidemic and the measures taken by the world's leading financial regulators to maintain economic growth. On Tuesday, the Fed sharply cut interest rates by 0.50%, setting an example to all other regulators who are just thinking about support measures. EUR was also supported by macroeconomic data from the US, released yesterday. Nonfarm Productivity in Q4 2019 slowed down from +1.4% QoQ to +1.2% QoQ, which turned out to be worse than neutral forecasts of investors. Factory Orders in January fell by 0.5% MoM after an increase of 1.9% MoM in December. Analysts had expected negative trend to appear, but counted on only –0.1% MoM decline. GBP/USD GBP shows a slight increase against USD during today's Asian session, trading near local highs of February 26, updated the day before. Moderate support for GBP is provided by weakening expectations of lower interest rates by the Bank of England. The new head of the British regulator, Andrew Bailey, who is due to take office March 16, said the Bank of England should not rush to cut rates after the Fed. First of all, according to Bailey, it is necessary to assess the risks of the spread of the virus and its economic consequences. Additional support for the instrument is provided by weak positions in USD, which turned out to be vulnerable after an unexpected decrease in the interest rate of the Fed on Tuesday. In turn, the growth of GBP above 1.3000 is hindered by the uncertain situation around the trade negotiations between the UK and the EU. Boris Johnson remains adamant and he declares his readiness to leave the negotiations without an agreement if the EU does not reduce its requirements. AUD/USD AUD is falling against USD during today's Asian session, developing a weak correctional impulse formed yesterday. Pressure on the instrument is exerted by weak macroeconomic statistics from Australia, as well as the general negative market background associated with the spread of coronavirus and the efforts of world regulators to minimize damage to the global economy. AiG Performance of Services Index in February fell from 47.4 to 47.0 points, which turned out to be worse than market expectations. Retail Sales in January fell by 0.3% MoM after a decline of 0.7% MoM in the previous month. Analysts had expected zero dynamics. On Friday, investors focus on the publication of the February report on the US labor market. USD/JPY USD continues to develop negative dynamics against JPY, updating record lows. The instrument is trying to consolidate below 105.90, a local low of September 2019. Demand for JPY again began to recover in the market after a sudden decrease in the interest rate by the Fed on Tuesday, which gave rise to a new wave of concern in the market regarding the further spread of the coronavirus epidemic. JPY is also supported by Friday's macroeconomic data from Japan. Labor Cash Earnings in January increased by 1.5% YoY after a decrease of 0.2% YoY last month. Analysts expected growth by 1.3% YoY. Overall Household Spending in January remained negative, but the indicator increased slightly compared to the previous month: –3.9% YoY against –4.8% YoY. XAU/USD Gold prices show growth during today's Asian session, continuing the development of the "bullish" momentum formed on Tuesday. Yesterday, the quotes rose by more than 1%, as investors continued to avoid risky transactions amid the spread of the coronavirus epidemic outside of China. Investors were particularly worried about the outbreak in the United States, as a result of which the authorities in California were forced to declare a state of emergency, and the Fed unexpectedly lowered interest rates by 0.50% on Tuesday, trying to minimize the negative consequences for American business. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 EUR/USD Today, during the Asian session, the EUR/USD pair is actively falling, retreating from record highs, renewed yesterday. The weakening of EUR is facilitated by technical factors, as well as the slow recovery of US stock markets, which opened at the beginning of the week with a sharp decline. Now, the instrument has lost about 0.80%, testing the 1.1350 the level of for a breakdown. However, the price receives moderate support from yesterday’s German macroeconomic statistics. Thus, industrial production in January grew by 3% MoM after a decrease of 2.2% MoM last month. Analysts predicted the appearance of positive dynamics only at the level of +1.5% MoM. In annual terms, the decline in production slowed down from –5.3% YoY to –1.3% YoY, which also was noticeably better than the forecasts of –4.5% YoY. On Tuesday, investors expect the publication of updated data on EU Q4 2019 GDP. GBP/USD Today, during the Asian session, the GBP/USD pair again reverses downwards and retreats from local highs of early February, renewed on Monday. The appearance of a “bearish” dynamics is facilitated by corrective sentiment in favor of USD, which finally recovers after a sudden decrease in the Fed’s interest rate last week. Additional pressure on GBP has poor UK macroeconomic statistics. Thus, retail sales for February, according to data from the Confederation of British Industrialists, decreased by 0.4% YoY after zero dynamics last month. Real dynamics was half the market expectations. Tomorrow, a large block of macroeconomic statistics: data on the dynamics of GDP, industrial production and the balance of trade in goods for January will be released. NZD/USD Today, during the Asian session, the NZD/USD pair is moderately declining, consolidating after the ambiguous dynamics of the beginning of the week, which was characterized by the highest level of activity. The instrument decreases due to the increase in correctional sentiment in favor of USD, which was oversold after the US Federal Reserve cut its interest rate by 50 basis points last week. Tuesday’s ambiguous macroeconomic statistics have added pressure on the course. Q4 2019 sales in the industrial sector of New Zealand increased by 2.7% QoQ after a decrease of 0.3% QoQ in the previous period. However, the indicator was noticeably worse than market expectations of +4.3% QoQ. USD/JPY Today, during the Asian session, the USD/JPY pair is actively growing. Now, the dollar has added about 1.75%, testing the level of 104.20 for a breakout. Thanks to the active actions of the “bulls”, the instrument managed to compensate for the decline in the instrument at the beginning of the week and move away from record lows since September 2016. The development of upward dynamics contributes to the strengthening of USD throughout the spectrum of the market, which remains subject to panic. Macroeconomic statistics from Japan, released earlier this week, which previously had been neglected, also put pressure on JPY. The country reported a further slowdown in the economy. Q4 2019 GDP decreased by 1.8% QoQ after weakening by 1.6% QoQ in the third quarter. Over the year, the Japanese economy collapsed by 7.1% YoY after a decline of 6.3% YoY in the third quarter. XAU/USD Today, during the Asian session, gold prices are falling, continuing the development of the “bearish” impulse formed yesterday when the instrument retreated from its record highs since December 2012. The development of negative dynamics is facilitated by the strengthening of the position of USD, which is again in demand against the background of a complicating economic situation in the world. Markets reacted extremely violently to the collapse of oil prices, and they also expect a further easing of monetary policy by the leading central banks in response to the spread of the coronavirus epidemic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 EUR/USD EUR is growing against USD during today's Asian session, correcting after sharp fall the day before. Moderate support for EUR is provided by data from the euro area released on Tuesday. Employment Change in Q4 2019 increased by 1.1% YoY, maintaining the same pace despite forecasts of a slowdown to 1.0% YoY. In quarterly terms, employment accelerated from 0.2% QoQ to 0.3% QoQ, which met market expectations. Eurozone GDP in Q4 2019 increased by 0.1% QoQ and 1.0% YoY, slightly ahead of its preliminary estimates (0.1% QoQ and 0.9% YoY). The focus of European investors remains on the ECB meeting on interest rates on Thursday. It is expected that the European regulator can follow the example of the Fed and will consider the possibility of easing monetary policy in the region. However, the ECB has not so many opportunities in this regard. The interest rate remains at zero level, and the deposit rate remains at –0.5% per annum. GBP/USD GBP is showing moderate growth against USD during today's Asian session, recovering after sharp fall the day before. Amid some panic in the market due to collapsed oil prices, USD received a powerful impetus for growth on Tuesday and rose significantly against almost all its major competitors. Today corrective sentiment reigns supreme, and investors expect new growth drivers. Traders are focused on macroeconomic statistics from the UK on the dynamics of Industrial Production and GDP growth in January. The US will publish statistics on Consumer Inflation. It is expected that amid the slowdown in global economic growth in February, Consumer Inflation in the US may decline from 2.5% YoY to 2.2% YoY. AUD/USD AUD is showing moderate growth against USD during today's Asian session, correcting after a collapse the day before. The instrument adds about 0.20% and tests the level of 0.6500–0.6510 for a breakout. Some support for AUD is provided by macroeconomic statistics from Australia. Home Loans in January grew by 3.1% MoM after growth of 3.5% MoM in December. Analysts had expected a sharp decline in the growth rate of the indicator to 0.5% MoM. Investment Lending for Homes in January also increased from 2.8% MoM to 3.6% MoM. Only Westpac Consumer Confidence Index was disappointing: in March, the indicator decreased by 3.8% MoM after a steady growth of 2.3% MoM in February. Analysts had expected negative trend to appear, but counted on only 0.4% MoM decline. USD/JPY USD is falling against JPY during today's Asian session, retreating from local highs, updated the day before. On Tuesday, USD showed strong growth across the entire spectrum of the market, supported by rising fears amid collapse in oil prices. Meanwhile, USD is under pressure due to the possibility of a further reduction in the interest rate by the Fed. Many analysts believe that the US regulator may go for an additional reduction of 0.50% by the end of March, which will contribute to a noticeable outflow of USD buyers. During the day, investors expect the publication of statistics from the US on consumer inflation. Forecasts suggest a slight decline, but USD may partly ignore weak data, as rates and the coronavirus epidemic still dominate the minds of investors. XAU/USD Gold prices are recovering during today's Asian session, correcting after a sharp decline at the beginning of the week, when quotes retreated from their record highs since December 2012. The instrument adds about 0.77% and is actively testing the level of 1660.00 for a breakout. Hopes for new measures to support the global economy have a positive effect on the dynamics of USD. At the same time, investors remain wary of the uncertain situation with the coronavirus epidemic and the recent collapse in oil prices caused by the price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia. Finally, gold is supported by expectations of the next reduction in the interest rate by the Fed at the meeting on March 18. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 EUR/USD Today, during the Asian trading session, the EUR/USD pair is growing moderately, being correcting upwards after a two-day decline. USD is under pressure despite the publication of positive US macroeconomic statistics on Monday. Thus, the Consumer Price Index for February grew by 0.1% MoM and 2.3% YoY, which was slightly better than market expectations of 0.0% MoM and +2.2% YoY. Core CPI s. a. for the same period increased from 266.48 to 267.07 points. On Thursday, European investors wait for the EU statistics on industrial production for January, as well as the ECB's interest rate decision with the following press conference. It is expected that the European regulator will lower the rate, which may have negative consequences for the banking sector of the region, which in this case will need additional support. GBP/USD Today, during the Asian trading session, the GBP/USD pair shows ambiguous dynamics and is leaning towards a slight correction after an active decline for two consecutive sessions. The instrument is under significant pressure of the Bank of England’s unexpected decision on lowering interest rates by 50 basis points to 0.25% in order to support weakening markets amid the spread of the coronavirus epidemic and a widespread economic slowdown. The decision to soften monetary policy was adopted unanimously by all nine board members. Additionally, the pound is negatively affected by poor macroeconomic statistics from the UK. Thus, Industrial Production for January decreased by 2.9% YoY after a decrease of 1.8% YoY last month. Analysts had expected a decrease of 2.6% YoY. GDP for January showed zero dynamics, while experts expected a slight increase of +0.2% MoM. Nevertheless, despite such powerful negative factors, the pound remains relatively stable. It is partly due to the traders’ hopes for a new UK budget presented in parliament on Wednesday. AUD/USD Today, during the Asian trading session, the AUD/USD pair is falling, continuing the development of the “bearish” momentum. Now, the Australian dollar has lost about 0.35% and is testing the 0.6450 the level of for a breakdown. The instrument is under pressure by uncertain macroeconomic statistics from Australia, published on Wednesday. In particular, the Westpac Consumer Confidence Index fell by 3.8% MoM in March after rising 2.3% MoM in the previous month. Experts expected a decrease of only 0.4% MoM. The US published optimistic data on the dynamics of consumer inflation, although traders were also scared by the figures on the state of the budget for February. According to a published report, its deficit reached $235 billion, while last month it was only $33 billion. USD/JPY Today, during the Asian trading session, the USD/JPY pair shows ambiguous trading dynamics, while maintaining a negative mood. Despite yesterday's publication of positive US macroeconomic statistics on consumer inflation, the dollar is currently giving way to the yen in the race for the “safest” currency. Meanwhile, macroeconomic statistics from Japan published on Thursday are poor. Thus, the February domestic price index for corporate goods slowed down from +1.5% YoY to +0.8% YoY, which was worse than market expectations +1.0% YoY. The producer price index of goods for the same period fell by 0.4% MoM after rising by 0.1% MoM last month. The indicator also was worse than its forecast, which suggested a decrease of 0.3% MoM. Additional pressure on the dollar against the yen is having a rapid reduction in the difference in interest rates between the Fed and the Bank of Japan. Considering that the American regulator may decide on another rate cut before the end of March, this negative factor will only strengthen. XAU/USD Today, during the Asian trading session, gold prices show ambiguous dynamics, trying to be corrected after an active decline in the instrument for three consecutive sessions. It is facilitated by a slight weakening of the US currency, which occurs despite the publication of US optimistic macroeconomic statistics on consumer inflation. Demand for gold also increased after yesterday’s emergency meeting of the Bank of England, during which the regulator decided to reduce the interest rate by 50 basis points. On Thursday, traders are focused on the ECB meeting, which may also end with a softening of monetary policy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 EUR/USD EUR is showing corrective growth against USD during today's Asian session, recovering from an active decline for three consecutive sessions, which allowed the instrument to retreat from the January 2019 highs. The growth of EUR is facilitated by the weakening of USD in the market after the speech of Donald Trump, which frankly disappointed investors. Trump announced a ban on entering the US from 26 eurozone countries for a month, and also allowed the introduction of additional tax and credit exemptions for small and medium-sized enterprises. However, investors have not heard anything about new measures to combat coronavirus, in particular regarding the development of a vaccine. Meanwhile, the ECB held a meeting on monetary policy on Thursday, at which the president of the regulator, Christine Lagarde, announced new measures to stimulate the economy. The Bank kept rates at the previous minimum levels and noted that it would increase the volume of additional net asset purchases by EUR 120B. In addition, Lagarde called on EU leaders to take the most decisive actions aimed at stabilizing the economic situation in the region, pointing out the high risks of delay. GBP/USD GBP is developing an active downtrend against USD in trading this week, updating the local lows of October 2019 closer to the end of the weekly session. GBP remains under pressure amid growing panic and market uncertainty. Earlier in the week the Bank of England quite unexpectedly decided to reduce the interest rate immediately by 0.50%, bringing it to the level of 0.25%. The regulator explained this decision by the desire to help a rapidly slowing economy amid the spread of the coronavirus epidemic and the introduction of new bans from various states. Additional pressure on the instrument was provided by macroeconomic statistics from the UK on the dynamics of industrial production and the growth rate of GDP in January. Investors are focused on the publication of the Bank of England Meeting Minutes, from which the markets will be able to learn about the updated forecasts of the regulator in the near future. NZD/USD NZD shows a slight increase during today's Asian session, correcting after an active decline the day before. The instrument adds about 25 points and is actively testing the level of 0.6150 for a breakout. The development of the uptrend in the pair proceeds against the background of a slight decrease in USD, which is undergoing sales after the speech of US President Donald Trump the day before. Investors were disappointed with Trump's statements, as they expected to hear about concrete steps to develop a vaccine and curb the spread of the disease within the country. Additional support for NZD on Friday is provided by published data on Business NZ PMI. In February, the indicator rose sharply from 49.6 to 53.2 points, significantly exceeding forecasts of growth to 50.3 points. At the same time, the Food Price Index for the same period slowed down from 2.1% MoM to 0.0% MoM, being worse than forecasts of 0.2% MoM. USD/JPY USD is strengthening against JPY during today's Asian session, continuing to develop an unsteady "bullish" momentum that formed the day before. The growth of the instrument is facilitated by technical factors, while USD remains vulnerable after Donald Trump's controversial speech the day before. In addition, markets were unsatisfied with the publication of statistics on industrial inflation in the US for February. Today’s Japanese statistics provides insignificant support for JPY. Tertiary Industry Index in January increased by 0.8% MoM after a decline of 0.3% MoM last month. Analysts had expected positive trend to emerge, but counted on 1.2% MoM growth. XAU/USD Gold prices show multidirectional dynamics during today's Asian session, consolidating after a sharp decline the day before, which was triggered by profit taking on the instrument and an increase in demand for USD as a safe haven currency. At the same time, investors were disappointed by Donald Trump's speech, in which he announced a ban on entry into the US from 26 European countries, but did not touch on the development of other measures to combat coronavirus. Meanwhile, disturbing news about the spread of the coronavirus epidemic provoked another panic sale on the stock market, which could push the leading financial regulators to new measures to support the economy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted March 16, 2020 Share Posted March 16, 2020 EUR/USD EUR declines against USD during today's Asian session, returning to a downtrend after the opening with the rising gap against the backdrop of an unexpected reduction in the interest rate by the Fed to zero. In an effort to help a weakening economy, the US regulator lowered its key rate range to 0.00–0.25%, and also announced that it would increase its balance sheet to USD 700B. In addition, at the end of last week, US President Donald Trump announced the introduction of a state of emergency in the US, which will allow the country to attract additional investments on the ground and increase funding for the program to combat the epidemic. The ECB also seeks to create additional support for the economy. Despite the fact that at its last meeting, the European regulator did not change the rate parameters, the EU intends to create a special fund in the amount of EUR 37B, and also guarantees support for small and medium-sized businesses through the issuance of loans in the amount of EUR 8B. GBP/USD GBP is again trading with a downtrend paired with USD, approaching the previous local lows, updated at the end of last week. GBP, like many other currencies, opened on Monday with a noticeable increase, which was caused by an unexpected decrease in the interest rate of the Fed immediately by 100 basis points. However, despite the unprecedented measures that the US government is taking to curb the negative effects of coronavirus, demand for USD remains very high, as investors fear a negative scenario. Today's macroeconomic statistics from the UK got lost amid news from the United States. However, Rightmove House Price Index in March rose by 1.0% MoM, accelerating after rising by 0.8% MoM. In annual terms, the indicator grew by 3.5% YoY after an increase of 2.9% YoY in the previous month. Traders are awaiting the publication of the February report on the UK labor market, which is due to appear on Tuesday. NZD/USD NZD is falling against USD during today's Asian session, returning to the lows of last Friday after the opening with the gap up due to a sharp interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve. The American regulator did not wait for the scheduled meeting at the end of the month and announced the most decisive measures to support the national economy, trying to minimize the damage from the further spread of the coronavirus epidemic. Macroeconomic statistics released this morning have been mixed. Investors were disappointed with the Chinese data on retail sales and industrial production, but were optimistic about the statistics on the number of Visitor Arrivals in New Zealand in January, reflecting an increase in the indicator (it is obvious that in the coming months the tourist flow will noticeably decrease). Industrial production in China fell by 13.5% YoY in February, after rising by 6.9% YoY last month. Analysts had expected positive dynamics to remain at 1.5% YoY. Retail Sales went down by 20.5% YoY after rising by 8% YoY in January. Forecasts suggested an increase of 0.8% YoY. USD/JPY USD shows ambiguous dynamics against JPY during today's Asian session, trading near the opening level at 107.00. Investors take a lead from a sudden decision of the US Fed to lower interest rates to zero, which should help a weakening global economy amid the further spread of the coronavirus epidemic. Other leading regulators come forward with similar measures. Earlier, the Bank of Japan announced a new program of purchases of government bonds worth JPY 200B, and also announced the issuance of JPY 1.5T of short-term loans for small and medium-sized businesses. Moderate support for JPY at the beginning of the week is provided by macroeconomic statistics published in Japan. Machinery Orders in January grew by 2.9% MoM after a decrease of 12.5% MoM last month. Analysts had expected negative dynamics to remain at –1.6% MoM. In annual terms, the decline slowed from –3.5% YoY to –0.3% YoY, which also turned out to be better than forecast of –0.5% YoY. XAU/USD Gold prices are falling during today's Asian session, gradually returning to the levels of the end of last week, when the instrument recorded a strong decline and updated local lows of the end of December 2019. Gold, like many other assets paired with USD, showed a positive gap at the opening of trading of the new week, which was caused by extremely aggressive measures of support for the national economy by the US Fed. Without waiting for the scheduled meeting, the regulator announced a reduction in interest rates to zero, which, coupled with unprecedented support of USD 1.5T, should significantly help the national and global economy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted March 17, 2020 Share Posted March 17, 2020 EUR/USD Today, during the Asian session, the EUR/USD pair is trading in different directions, consolidating near the level of 1.1180. Investors are concerned about the rapid development of the situation with coronavirus in the world and are looking for salvation in shelter assets, which are becoming less and less. Yesterday, the main news came from the United States: the Fed announced a sudden rate cut to almost zero. However, a sharp decline in USD did not follow, it was able to quickly recover and move into the green zone. The single currency closed Monday trading with a slight decrease, which, among other things, was due to the publication of poor macroeconomic statistics on consumer inflation in Italy. Investors also focused on a sharp decline in February industrial production by 13.5% YoY in China. During the day, traders expect the publication of data on business sentiment in the EU and Germany from ZEW, as well as statistics on production volumes in the construction sector in January. Europe also plans to hold a meeting of the Council of Ministers of Finance and Economics, which will discuss additional measures to support the region's economy in the context of the further spread of the epidemic. GBP/USD Today, during the Asian session, the GBP/USD pair is trading in a downward direction, continuing the development of a “bearish” trend since March 9, which led to the renewing of local lows from October 2019. New measures to support the economy, which the Fed announced the day before, had virtually no effect on the active growth of USD across the entire spectrum of the market. This was especially noticeable in the dynamics of the pound against the dollar since the British currency in the current realities is far from the concept of a “shelter asset”. Also, after the Fed’s decision, investors expect the Bank of England to take additional measures to support the economy at its next meeting on March 26. The focus of investors on Tuesday is the publication of information on the UK labor market for January-February of this year. AUD/USD Today, during the Asian session, the AUD/USD pair is growing slightly, retreating from record lows of the end of 2008, renewed the day before. Now, the instrument has added insignificant 0.07% and is trying to consolidate above the levels of 0.6100–0.6110. The price is under pressure amid the coronavirus pandemic, which is forcing the world's leading central banks to resort to the most decisive measures to support the global economy. The weakening of the Australian currency on Monday was also due to the disappointing data from China. February industrial production decreased by 13.5% YoY after an increase by 6.9% YoY in January. Retail sales for the same period fell by 20.5% YoY after rising by 8% YoY at the beginning of the year. On Tuesday, slight support for the instrument is provided by data from Australia on the dynamics of housing prices. In the fourth quarter, prices rose by 3.9% QoQ and 2.5% YoY, which was noticeably better than the data for the previous period +2.4% QoQ and –3.7% YoY. USD/JPY Today, during the Asian session, the USD/JPY pair is growing, compensating for the decline the day before, when the yen still got a chance to strengthen after a sharp decrease in the Fed’s interest rate. The Bank of Japan, in turn, left rates at the previous lows, however, noted that it would increase the quantitative easing program and also develop a new corporate lending scheme that should support economic activity in the country. On Tuesday, JPY was slightly supported by macroeconomic statistics from Japan. Thus, industrial production in January increased by 1% MoM after an increase by 0.8% MoM over the past month. In annual terms, production slowed down its decline from –2.5% YoY to –2.3% YoY. The capacity utilization rate for January increased by 1.1% MoM after a decline by 0.4% MoM for December. XAU/USD Today, during the Asian session, gold prices remain under pressure and are testing for a downward breakdown of the level of 1500.00. The instrument continues to develop a confident “bearish” trend, which led to the renewing of record lows on Monday. Although at the beginning of the new week at Forex, the Fed announced a sudden decrease in the interest rate to almost lows, investors actively sold the precious metal, compensating for their losses in other assets. Meanwhile, US bond yields continued to decline steadily. Collapses were also recorded on stock and commodity platforms. Macroeconomic statistics published yesterday was poor. Investors were disappointed by the Chinese record decline in February industrial production by 13.5% YoY. The index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in March fell from 12.9 to –21.5 points against the forecast of a decrease to only 4 points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted March 18, 2020 Share Posted March 18, 2020 EUR/USD EUR is growing against USD during today's Asian session, correcting after another active decline yesterday when EUR was under pressure from the depressing statistics on business activity from ZEW. The German ZEW Economic Sentiment collapsed from 8.7 points to –49.5 points in March, which turned out to be almost half the market’s expectations of –26.4 points. The German ZEW Economic Sentiment for the same period fell from –15.7 to –43.1 points with a forecast of –30 points. ZEW Economic Sentiment in the euro area in March fell from 10.4 to –49.5 points with a forecast of a decrease of only 35.4 points. Meanwhile, the coronavirus pandemic continues to rage in Europe, which is pushing states to take new measures to support the economy and tighten quarantine. Many European companies have announced that they will suspend their production for several weeks in an attempt to minimize their losses. On Wednesday, European investors are focused on the February statistics on consumer inflation in the euro area. GBP/USD GBP is correcting against USD during today's Asian session, retreating from half-year lows, updated the day before. The instrument adds about 0.45% and is trying to consolidate above 1.2100–1.2110. The main driver of the pair's movement remains the coronavirus epidemic, which stirs the markets. Investors continue to buy USD as a safe currency, only occasionally paying attention to more risky assets. The current growth of GBP can be attributed to the fixation of quick profits, while fundamentally the situation remains the same. Macroeconomic statistics from the UK published yesterday turned out to be mixed. Claimant Count Rate in February increased by 17.3K after a decrease of 0.2K in the previous period. Analysts had expected a more confident growth of 21.4K. Average Earning Including Bonus in January increased from 2.9% 3MoY to 3.1% 3MoY, which was 0.1% better than expected. At the same time, the Unemployment Rate in January rose from 3.8% to 3.9%. NZD/USD NZD today shows flat trading dynamics, consolidating after another decline yesterday, which led to the updating of record lows since May 2009. NZD noticeably lose to USD, which is popular with those trying to minimize their risks. The pursuit of liquidity does not interfere even with unprecedented measures to support the US economy. On Monday, the Fed sharply reduced its rates to the lowest levels, and also said that it had adjusted its program aimed at providing USD abroad with other leading regulators. The US Treasury Department announced that it intends to buy back USD 1 trillion in securities by US companies, while the business can expect a deferment in paying taxes. Yesterday's macroeconomic statistics from New Zealand put additional pressure on the instrument. Global Dairy Trade Price Index in February fell by 3.9% MoM after a decrease of 1.2% MoM in the previous month. The indicator was worse than the forecast of –2.7% MoM. USD/JPY USD is falling against JPY during today's Asian session, correcting after active growth yesterday, which proceeded against the backdrop of a market race for liquidity. At the same time, Japanese macroeconomic statistics released on Tuesday provided insignificant support to JPY. Industrial Production in January slightly increased from 0.8% MoM to 1.0% MoM. Capacity Utilization in the same period added 1.1% MoM after the decline by 0.4% MoM in December. At the same time, US data were disappointing. Retail sales fell in February by 0.5% MoM after rising by 0.6% MoM in January. XAU/USD Gold prices are consolidating during today's Asian session near the level of 1530.00, to which the instrument managed to rise due to corrective growth the day before. Investors drew attention to gold amid the ongoing rally of USD, as concerns about a further slowdown in the global economy remain. Additional support for the instrument was provided by weak US Retail Sales data, which reflected a natural weakening of economic activity at the beginning of the epidemic. On Wednesday, investors expect the appearance of statistics on the housing market in the US for February, but do not expect to receive any additional support for USD. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 EUR/USD Today, during the Asian session, the EUR/USD pair is falling, continuing to develop a downtrend, which leads to the renewing of local minimums on the instrument since February 21. Now, the European currency has lost about 0.16%, testing the level of 1.0900 for a breakdown. The instrument remains under pressure amid the ongoing collapse in the stock markets and the growth of panic sentiment that is pushing investors to buy USD. Yesterday, European stock exchanges recorded the strongest decline in the last 7 years. Traders are also shocked by the price of oil, which fell to $20 per barrel (WTI Crude Oil). Yesterday’s macroeconomic statistics on consumer inflation in the EU met the forecasts but failed to provide significant support to the euro. The consumer price index in March rose by 0.2% MoM after a decline by 1% MoM in January. Annual inflation growth rates remained at the previous level of +1.2% YoY. GBP/USD The GBP/USD pair continues to renew record lows amid a sharp decline since March 10. Today, during the Asian session, the instrument tries to consolidate below 1.1500, the lowest level since 1985. Investors are actively buying up dollars in the market, fearing a negative scenario for the development of the coronavirus epidemic. Also, the UK, unlike many other countries, delayed the introduction of strict quarantine, and now investors fear that with an outbreak of illness, the health system may not be able to cope with the flow of patients. AUD/USD Today, during the Asian session, the AUD/USD pair is actively declining, renewing record multi-year lows against the ongoing rally of the US dollar. Panic in the market, as well as the sharp collapse of stock exchanges, are pushing investors to buy US currency, which currently serves as one of the main sources of liquidity in the market. Also to the situation with the coronavirus epidemic, the RBA decision on the interest rate is in the spotlight on Thursday. As many expected, the Australian regulator took additional measures to support the economy and lowered the interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.25%. At the same time, the published Australian labor market report for February added some optimism to the markets. So, the level of employment in February rose sharply by 26.7K jobs after rising by 12.9K last month. Analysts had expected an increase of only 10K. The unemployment rate in February unexpectedly dropped from 5.3% to 5.1% with a constant forecast. USD/JPY Today, during the Asian session, the USD/JPY pair is growing, renewing local highs since February 28. Amid a sharply negative picture in the stock markets and the difficult epidemiological situation in the world, investors are inclined to buy the dollar as a source of liquidity. Demand for the yen as a shelter asset remains quite low, although it allows its dynamics to be relatively calm. Additional pressure on the position of the Japanese currency has published poor macroeconomic statistics from Japan. Thus, according to the results of February, CPI slowed down from +0.7% YoY to +0.4% YoY against the forecast of growth to +0.8% YoY. However, the activity index in all sectors of Japan at the beginning of the year steadily increased by 0.8% MoM, which was significantly better than market expectations +0.2% MoM. XAU/USD Today, during the Asian session, gold prices show a negative trend, however, they make no attempt to consolidate below local lows since November 2019, renewed at the beginning of the week. Investors prefer the American currency to the precious metal, fearing that measures taken by the world Central Bank will be insufficient to curb negative trends. The US cannot yet calm the markets, which reflected in the sharp collapse of stock exchanges the day before. The Fed has promised to restore its mechanism for issuing loans directly to companies and households, which it has used during the 2008 financial crisis. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted March 20, 2020 Share Posted March 20, 2020 EUR/USD EUR has shown rather active growth against USD during today's Asian session, recovering from an active rally in the last 3 trading days, which led to the updating of record lows of April 2017. The growth of the pair is observed against the background of profit taking by investors at the end of the week, while the fundamental picture is not changing much. World regulators are taking the most decisive measures to stabilize the situation, but the panic in the market has not yet been stopped. USD, despite the reduction in the rate to almost zero, is still considered a risk aversion and serves as a reliable source of liquidity. Macroeconomic statistics published from the euro area and Germany turned out to be mixed, but, as has already become usual recently, has remained without proper attention. German IFO Business Climate index fell from 96 to 87.7 points in March. German IFO Current Assessment index for the same period decreased from 99 to 93.8 points. German IFO Expectations index fell from 93.2 points to 82 points. At the same time, Construction Output data in the euro area in January reflected an increase from –2.3% YoY to 6% YoY, which was noticeably better than market expectations of 1.3% YoY. GBP/USD GBP is trading upwards against USD during today's Asian session, retreating from record lows since 1985. The instrument adds more than 1.2% and is testing the level of 1.1650 for a breakout. Investors are focused on yesterday's meeting of the Bank of England, at which it was decided to lower the interest rate from 0.25% to 0.1%, trying to minimize the damage from the spread of the coronavirus epidemic and slowdown the global economy. In addition, the British regulator increased the volume of the quantitative easing program from 435B to 645B pounds. AUD/USD AUD strengthens against USD during today's Asian session, retreating from record lows updated the day before. The corrective sentiment on the instrument began to strengthen on Thursday, which allowed AUD to win back most of the losses. The Reserve Bank of Australia announced next stimulus measures following other global regulators. The interest rate was reduced from 0.50% to 0.25%, while traders expressed cautious optimism in connection with the publication of a relatively good Australian labor market report for February. However, the markets agree that the February statistics weakly reflects the real situation in the economy and the March data will be significantly worse. USD/JPY USD is falling against JPY during today's Asian session, retreating from local highs since February 24. The decline in the instrument proceeds against the background of the growth of correctional sentiments in USD at the end of this week, while the general situation in the market does not change much. Macroeconomic statistics fade into the background, especially when it comes to February or even January data, and the market is firmly focused on the coronavirus pandemic and related measures that world regulators are taking to stabilize the economy. XAU/USD Gold prices are rising during today's Asian session, correcting against the background of a slight decline in USD. In addition, the low exchange rate of the instrument made the purchase of gold an attractive investment, given that fundamentally the situation in the markets does not change much. Gold is also supported by the rapid decline in interest rates by global regulators and additional quantitative easing measures designed to help a slowing economy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted March 23, 2020 Share Posted March 23, 2020 EUR/USD EUR shows strong growth during today's Asian session, continuing the development of a weak correction, which gradually comes to the market after the rally of USD. Last week, due to a sharp collapse in the quotes of risky assets in the market, EUR updated its record lows since April 2017. Despite the fact that coronavirus remains one of the main topics in the current market, investor sentiment is gradually improving. The active measures that global regulators are taking seem to have taken, if not economic, then psychological action. Macroeconomic statistics published on Friday again turned out to be rather depressing, but did not have a noticeable effect on the market. German Producer Price Index in February fell by 0.4% MoM after rising by 0.8% MoM in the previous month. Analysts had expected decline by 0.1% MoM. The euro area's Current Account n.s.a. collapsed from EUR 51.2B to 8.7B in January, while forecasts suggested a decrease of only EUR 20.5B. GBP/USD GBP is showing uncertain growth against USD during today's Asian session, trying to win back losses at the opening. The recovery of the instrument proceeds against the background of the growth of corrective sentiment in the market, as investors calmed down after the active support measures undertaken by the leading regulators of the world. Last Thursday, the Bank of England lowered rates to a record level of 0.1% and significantly expanded its quantitative easing program in an effort to minimize the damage from the coronavirus crisis. It is not yet clear how exactly these measures will affect the UK economy, but the markets still got the main signal – politicians and economists are ready to undertake emergency measures to deal with the crisis. Last Friday's macroeconomic statistics from the UK was ambiguous. The UK Public Sector Net Borrowing reflected a sharp increase from GBP –12.433B to –0.394B. However, the figure turned out better than the forecast of +0.85B pounds. AUD/USD AUD is falling against USD during today's Asian session; however, it shows a tendency to corrective growth against the background of some stabilization of the situation in the foreign exchange markets. The active measures that global regulators are taking to curb negative trends in the economy seem to be gradually bearing fruit. A quantitative increase in indicators is out of the question, but moral support is undoubtedly being formed. In addition, investors are very optimistic about the experience of China in the fight against coronavirus. Last Friday, the People’s Bank of China kept its key rate at 4.05%, and economic activity in the country is gradually recovering, which also gives hope for a favorable outcome of the coronavirus crisis outside the PRC. Only a few publications from the USA are in the spotlight today, and interesting statistics from Australia will appear on Tuesday when business activity data from Commonwealth Bank is published. USD/JPY USD is falling against JPY during today's Asian session, retreating from local highs, updated last week. The instrument loses about 0.7%, testing the level of 110.00 for a breakdown. The growth of correctional dynamics is facilitated by a slight improvement in market sentiment. Active support of the global economy by leading financial regulators had a calming effect on investors, while previous negative assessments of the coronavirus epidemic did not change significantly. In addition, investors still use JPY as a safe haven asset, although USD looks a bit more attractive during a major crisis. XAU/USD Gold prices are falling again during today's Asian session, correcting after moderate growth at the end of last week, caused by further purchase of safe haven assets amid concerns about the economic consequences of coronavirus. Demand for gold remains quite low, as investors seek to seize the source of increased liquidity in the market by actively buying USD. However, against the background of a slight improvement in the situation and measures taken by leading regulators, the demand for liquidity is somewhat reduced and gold in this case looks like a very attractive investment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 EUR/USD Today, during the Asian session, the EUR/USD pair is actively growing, retesting the level of 1.0800 for a breakout. EUR is supported by growing political uncertainty in the USA and new measures to support the European economy. On Sunday, US parliamentarians blocked a bill to stimulate the economy amounting to more than $1 trillion but investors continue to hope that additional support will be provided anyway. Now, the Fed is trying to push the measures for virtually unlimited QE, which should help restore the stalled sectors of the economy. The EU Council on Economics and Finance has made an unprecedented decision and suspended the Stability and Growth Pact, one of the main documents of the EU, which implies that countries must adhere to a certain level of the budget deficit and not exceed a predetermined public debt ceiling. On Tuesday, investors are focused on the publication of a block of statistics on business activity in Europe for March. GBP/USD Today, during the Asian session, the GBP/USD pair is trading in an upward direction, recovering from another decline at the beginning of the week, which violated the plans of investors who hoped to see the corrective growth of the oversold pound. GBP is supported by a slight weakening of USD, as the Senate slowed down the adoption of the bill on new stimulus measures. Traders fear the development of a new American political crisis, which would be completely out of place, given the current realities and the further spread of the coronavirus epidemic. On Tuesday, traders expect the publication of March statistics on business activity in the manufacturing sector and the services sector from Markit. Also, today, Meeting Minutes of the Committee on the financial policy will be published. AUD/USD Today, during the Asian session, the AUD/USD pair is growing significantly, adding more than 1.1% and trying to consolidate above the level of 0.5900. The instrument is actively being strengthened after the US Federal Reserve's statement on the purchase of treasury securities and bonds in virtually unlimited quantities. Also, investors are focused on the fact that the Senate slowed down the adoption of new stimulus measures proposed by the Donald Trump administration, and this could lead to an increase in political uncertainty in the country. Australian macroeconomic statistics released on Tuesday was ambiguous. Thus, the Commonwealth Bank PMI in the service sector fell from 49 to 39.8 points for March, which was significantly worse than market expectations of 48.3 points. At the same time, Manufacturing PMI for the same period from 50.2 points corrected only to 50.1 points, which was better than forecasts and contributed to the growth of optimistic market sentiment. USD/JPY Today, during the Asian session, the USD/JPY pair significantly reduced, retreating from local highs since February 24, renewed yesterday. Investors dropped some of the long USD positions amid unprecedented economic support measures by the US Federal Reserve. On Monday, the regulator announced unlimited QE, while the Senate suspended the approval of the bill on economic incentives amounting to more than $1 trillion. Japanese macroeconomic statistics released on Tuesday slightly disappointed investors. So, Manufacturing PMI from Jibun Bank for March fell from 47.8 to 44.8 points against the forecast of a decrease to 47.6 points. XAU/USD Today, during the Asian session, gold prices are actively rising, continuing to develop a confident “bullish” signal formed yesterday. The instrument is supported by the weakening of USD amid the launch of new Fed measures to support the economy. In addition to the virtually unlimited volume of purchases of US Treasury bonds, the regulator will prepare new programs for lending to companies and households. Meanwhile, the market situation remains difficult due to the further spread of the coronavirus epidemic. The United States is trying to significantly limit the movement of citizens within the country, while Italy has completely banned all domestic travel to contain the increase in the number of deaths. In China, the number of cases is growing again; however, as noted in official statistics, most of these cases are imported from abroad. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted March 25, 2020 Share Posted March 25, 2020 EUR/USD EUR again shows active growth during today's Asian session, continuing the development of the "bullish" impulse that formed at the beginning of this week. USD has come under pressure amid unprecedented economic support measures taken by the Fed over the past few days. On Monday, the regulator announced an unlimited quantitative easing program, as well as new lending programs for small and medium-sized businesses. The EU, in turn, will suspend one of its fundamental documents, which imposes a restriction on the size of the budget deficit and public debt for EU members. The macroeconomic statistics from the euro area published on Tuesday was quite weak. Composite Manufacturing PMI of the euro area in March fell from 51.6 to 31.4 points against the forecast of 38.8 points. GBP/USD GBP is strengthening against USD during today's Asian session, updating local highs of March 20. Support for the "bullish" sentiment is still provided by the weakening USD against the backdrop of the announcement of new measures to support the US economy. At the same time, the liquidity crisis in the market continues to provide significant support to USD, and the overall risk demand remains rather weak. Macroeconomic statistics from the UK released on Tuesday turned out to be ambiguous, but did not have a noticeable effect on the dynamics of the instrument. Markit Services PMI in March fell from 53.2 to 35.7 points against the forecast of a decrease to 45 points. At the same time, Manufacturing PMI over the same period decreased from 51.7 to 48 points, which turned out to be better than market expectations of 45 points. NZD/USD NZD is showing moderate growth against USD during today's Asian session, updating local highs of March 18. Active support for the instrument is still provided by the growth of correctional sentiments in USD against the background of the aggressive Fed policy aimed at helping the US economy. However, the general tension in the market associated with the risks of the further spread of the coronavirus pandemic remains, and investors are in no hurry to sell USD. Published on Wednesday, macroeconomic statistics from New Zealand slightly supported NZD. In February, export volumes grew by USD 4.92B, accelerating from the previous value of USD 4.689B. Imports for the same period slowed from USD 5.103B to USD 4.33B, which led to a slight increase in the trade surplus in February. In monthly terms, in February, the trade balance entered the green zone at USD 594M after a deficit of USD 414M in January. USD/JPY USD shows ambiguous dynamics against JPY, staying close to its monthly highs amid continued market anxiety about the prospects for the spread of the coronavirus pandemic and its negative consequences. USD somewhat staggered after the Fed representatives announced an unlimited program of quantitative easing and also promised to provide favorable lending programs for small and medium-sized businesses in the United States. However, the corrective sentiment on USD did not lead to a noticeable demand for the yen, which is considered a safe asset. The Bank of Japan is still lingering with new measures to support the economy, but its arsenal is not so large, since the annual asset purchase program for JPY 1T has been operating since 2013, and in 2016 the regulator increased its volume to JPY 6T. Earlier this month, the Bank of Japan announced the possibility of temporarily doubling the quantitative easing program, but there are still doubts in the market regarding the regulator’s readiness to take such a step. XAU/USD Gold prices are falling during today's Asian session, correcting after strong growth for two consecutive sessions, which led to the renewal of local highs of March 12. Negative trend emerged due to fixing of long positions in gold, while the fundamental picture on the market is not changing much. The increased interest in the asset is associated with unprecedented measures taken by the Fed in an attempt to support the slowing US economy amid the threats posed by the coronavirus pandemic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted March 26, 2020 Share Posted March 26, 2020 EUR/USD Today, during the Asian session, the EUR/USD pair is growing moderately, renewing local highs since March 19. The euro is recovering amid increasing correctional sentiment in the US currency, which only intensified with the adoption of new unprecedented stimulus measures from the Fed. Yesterday, it became known that the US Senate also managed to negotiate with Donald Trump’s administration and approved a bill on economic support worth $2 trillion. Traders were inspired by Trump’s speech, as he expressed a desire to remove quarantine in the country by Easter (mid-April). Macroeconomic statistics released yesterday were expectedly weak. Thus, the German Ifo Business Climate Index for March fell from 87.7 to 86.1 points with a neutral outlook. German Business Expectations fell from 82.0 to 79.7 points, which was worse than market expectations of 81.9 points. German Current Assessment for the same period decreased from 93.8 to 93.0 points against expectations of 93.6 points. GBP/USD Today, during the Asian session, the GBP/USD pair is falling, retreating from the local maximums, renewed yesterday, currently losing about 0.10% and trying to consolidate below 1.1870. The pound, like many other currencies on the market, is growing amid some improvement in investor sentiment. Investors hope that new unprecedented US economic support measures will help curb the development of negative trends in the global economy. Yesterday, traders focused on a block of UK consumer inflation data. For February, the Consumer Price Index rose by 0.4% MoM, which was slightly better than market expectations +0.3% MoM, and 1.7% YoY, which coincided with investors' expectations. Core CPI without seasonal adjustment for February accelerated from +0.2% YoY to +0.4% YoY. The Retail Price Index, as expected, rose for February by 0.5% MoM after a decline by 0.4% MoM for the previous month. On Thursday, investors are awaiting the Bank of England interest rate decision. It is assumed that the regulator may take additional mitigation measures, although the key rate has already remained at the lows. AUD/USD Today, during the Asian session, the AUD/USD pair is falling, retreating from the local highs, renewed yesterday. The negative dynamics is mainly due to technical factors, while the position of USD is still under pressure amid a slight increase in investor interest in risk. Macroeconomic statistics from the US published on Wednesday was ambiguous. So, the Durable Goods Orders for February grew by 1.2% MoM after a growth of 0.1% MoM for the previous month. Analysts had expected a decline of 0.8% MoM. Orders for capital goods excluding the defense and aviation sectors in February fell by 0.8% MoM after growth by 1% MoM for January. Experts predicted a decrease of only 0.4% MoM. On Thursday, investors are focused on the Initial Jobless Claims data for the week of March 20. Due to quarantine, the number of applications is expected to rise sharply to 1 million. USD/JPY Today, during the Asian session, the USD/JPY pair is falling, retreating from the local highs, renewed on Tuesday. However, in the short term, the dynamics of the instrument is still flat, and there is no reason to form a full reversal of the trend. Traders noted the growth of correctional sentiments in the US currency, which felt the strength of stimulating measures by the US Federal Reserve. The optimism to the market was also added by the speech of US President Donald Trump, who expressed the hope that most of the restrictive measures may be removed closer to mid-April. XAU/USD Today, during the Asian session, gold prices are correcting, continuing the development of the “bearish” impulse formed yesterday when the instrument renewed its local highs since March 12. Nevertheless, the depreciation so far can only be associated with the technical factors of profitable positions closing, while fundamentally the situation in the markets remains very depressing. The new package of measures to support the US economy, which the Senate approved the day before, can provide significant help in containing the negative consequences for the global economy but the source of the problem itself – the spread of the virus – still generates significant risks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted March 27, 2020 Share Posted March 27, 2020 EUR/USD EUR is trading up against USD during today's Asian session, updating local highs of March 17. The instrument is supported by the growth of correctional sentiments in USD, which intensified with the adoption of unprecedented incentives for the US economy. Analysts reckon that approved bills will significantly limit the economic damage from the spread of the coronavirus epidemic. Meanwhile, data from the US labor market, released on Thursday, pointed at rapidly growing risks. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 20 sharply increased from 282K to 3283K, which significantly exceeded expectations of 1000K. GBP/USD GBP is growing against USD at the end of the trading week and can complete it with steady growth at the highs since March 16. This week’s growth is facilitated by a decline in USD, as well as a slight improvement in investor sentiment in response to the approved stimulus package in the US, which is expected to minimize damage from a slowing economy. Yesterday, investors were focused on a meeting of the Bank of England on monetary policy. As expected, this time the British regulator decided not to rush to introduce new measures to support the economy, especially since the rate is already at record low level of 0.1%. The Bank also maintained a quantitative easing program at GBP 645B. Today, during the day, markets expect publication of data on Nationwide Housing Prices in the UK, as well as the release of the Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin for Q1 2020. NZD/USD NZD shows an uptrend against USD during today's Asian session, trying to consolidate above 0.6000, the highest level since March 17. Correction of USD across the entire spectrum of the market contributes to maintaining the "bullish" trend of the instrument, while there are not many fundamental reasons for the growth of NZD. The macroeconomic statistics from New Zealand published on Friday was weak. The ANZ Consumer Confidence in March showed a sharp decline from 122.1 to 106.3 points. Total Filled Jobs in February rose slightly from 2.2M to 2.21M, but analysts caution against premature conclusions, since it is obvious that the March figures will be much worse. USD/JPY USD is rapidly falling against JPY during today's Asian session, continuing to develop the "bearish" momentum that formed the day before. The instrument loses about 1%, testing the level of 108.20 for a breakdown. Demand for the yen is growing amid large-scale correction of USD across the entire spectrum of the market in response to new measures to support the US economy from the administration of Donald Trump and the Fed. Investors also win back macroeconomic statistics on the US labor market published on Thursday. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 20 sharply increased from 282K to 3283K. This is not to say that the growth of the indicator was somewhat unexpected for the market, but the real results were closer to the upper threshold of expected values. In addition, this figure is not finalized, since many Americans simply could not complete the application on time due to long queues and congestion in Internet resources. XAU/USD Gold prices show a moderate decline during today's Asian session, retreating from local highs, updated the day before. The instrument loses about 0.28%, testing the level of 1620.00 for a breakdown. Gold is corrected after explosive growth at the beginning of the week, due to the return of investors after a period of sales. The panic in the market subsided slightly against the backdrop of the US government taking significant measures to support the economy, which pushed the market to diversify. Leading analytical companies noted the possibility of buying a precious metal. For example, Goldman Sachs analysts expect that in the next few months gold can reach 1800.00. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 EUR/USD EUR is declining against USD during today's Asian session, retreating from local highs since March 17, updated last Friday. Investors close part of the existing long positions, which provokes the appearance of corrective dynamics for the instrument, while the fundamental picture changes little. Demand for USD remains high, despite unprecedented measures to support the US economy and injecting huge amounts of liquidity. Last Friday's macroeconomic statistics from the US was ambiguous. The February data on Personal Income and Spending in the US provided insignificant support for the market, while the March Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index reflected a decrease from 95.9 to 89.1 points against the forecast of 90 points. Today, investors are focused on the publication of statistics on business sentiment in the euro area in March. In addition, investors are expecting the release of data on consumer inflation for March in Germany. GBP/USD GBP is falling against USD during today's Asian session, retreating from local highs of March 13, updated at the end of last trading week. USD weakened significantly amid market reactions to new stimulus measures from the US government, as well as the publication of disappointing data from the US, indicating growing risks for the national economy due to the spread of the coronavirus epidemic. British investors today expect the publication of February data on the dynamics of consumer credit. On Tuesday, the UK will release an updated estimate of GDP dynamics for Q4 2019. NZD/USD NZD shows ambiguous trading dynamics against USD during today's Asian session. The instrument is trading near 0.6030, feeling the pressure from the strengthening USD, which is recovering from a weekly fall. Demand for USD is growing again amid the further spread of the coronavirus pandemic, as investors fear that government action may not be enough. However, a certain effect of incentive measures is certainly observed. In particular, amid the approval by the US Senate of an economic support program worth more than USD 2 trillion, a significant reduction in the dollar financing deficit was achieved. USD/JPY USD is trading in both directions against JPY during today's Asian session. After a steady decline at the end of last week, which led to the renewal of local lows of March 18, USD is again prone to growth, receiving support from the worsening forecasts of the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the global economy. However, since the Fed managed to satisfy the increased demand for USD abroad, it is becoming increasingly difficult for investors to choose a safe haven asset for themselves. Interesting macroeconomic statistics from Japan is not expected on Monday, but on Tuesday February data on Retail Sales and Industrial Production will be published. XAU/USD Gold prices are declining during today's Asian session, continuing the development of flat dynamics for the instrument, which is traced from March 25. Demand for the asset is somewhat reduced amid the recovering USD, but investors are not in a hurry to transfer to USD en masse. Last week, disappointing macroeconomic statistics on jobless claims frightened investors. In addition, the Fed, through the activation of emergency mechanisms, managed to satisfy the increased demand for USD abroad, which somewhat reduced the hype around the lack of liquidity in the market. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 EUR/USD Today, during the Asian session, the EUR/USD pair is developing a correctional trend, approaching strong support around 1.1000. EUR decline is due to the growing uncertainty in the market, which expects some improvement in the situation. Many governments have taken incentive measures to support their economies and strengthened quarantine against the spread of the epidemic. Now, it remains only to wait until the peak of incidence passes, and the world economy begins to recover from these shocks. Published on Monday, EU macroeconomic statistics were poor, which increased pressure on the euro. Thus, German HICP for March fell from +1.7% YoY to +1.3% YoY, which was worse than market expectations of +1.4% YoY. In monthly terms, the index growth slowed to a minimum of +0.1% MoM. GBP/USD Today, during the Asian session, the GBP/USD pair is trading in a downward direction, continuing the development of a “bearish” impulse formed yesterday. After a rather active “bullish” rally last week, provoked by the emergence of new stimulus measures by the US government and the Fed, GBP again is weakening against USD amid extremely low interest of investors in risky assets. UK macroeconomic statistics released earlier this week only reinforced this trend. So, BoE Consumer Credit for February fell from 1.107 billion to 0.9 billion pounds, which was worse than market expectations of 1.1 billion. On Tuesday, GfK Consumer Confidence data for March appeared. The indicator expectedly fell from –7 to –9 points but analysts' forecasts suggested a much more significant drop to –15 points. During the day, investors expect the publication of statistics on the Current Account and the dynamics of Q4 2019 UK GDP. NZD/USD Today, during the Asian session, the NZD/USD pair shows flat dynamics, consolidating near the level of 0.6000. Last week’s active growth of NZD was replaced by multidirectional trading amid yet another strengthening of the American currency, which is in demand amid increasing uncertainty in the market. Now, as most of the measures to support the economy and limit the spread of the epidemic have already been taken, the most unpleasant time is coming for investors – the time for waiting. New Zealand macroeconomic statistics released on Tuesday put pressure on the instrument. Thus, the business optimism index from the National Bank of New Zealand in March fell from –19.4 points to a record value of –63.5 points. Analysts had expected a decline only to –24.1 points. The forecast of activity from RBNZ in March fell from 12% to –26.7%, which also was worse than market expectations of 7.3%. USD/JPY Today, during the Asian session, the USD/JPY pair is growing moderately, retreating from local lows since March 18, renewed yesterday. Demand for the dollar and the yen is again growing amid increased uncertainty but interest in the dollar, as expected, is slightly stronger. Recently, investors are increasingly reacting to the publication of macroeconomic statistics for March, which reflects a sharp deterioration due to the coronavirus crisis. So, the data released yesterday, business activity in the industrial sector of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (USA) fell sharply to the level of –70 points in spite of the expected growth from 1.2 to 6.2 points. On Tuesday, Japan released a block of retail and industrial data for February. Given the obvious difference between the February and March data, the market ignored most of the information. XAU/USD Today, during the Asian session, gold prices are falling, continuing the development of an uncertain "bearish" trend in the ultra-short term. The gradual strengthening of the US currency puts pressure on the instrument but investors are not in a hurry to close their positions amid growing uncertainty in the market. The global economy is in recession, and the recovery process will be very difficult, especially since the peak of the epidemic has not yet been passed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted April 1, 2020 Share Posted April 1, 2020 EUR/USD EUR declines against USD during today's Asian session, developing a "bearish" impulse that formed at the beginning of the week, when the instrument retreated from its local highs since March 17. EUR loses significantly to USD amid continuing uncertainty due to the raging coronavirus epidemic; however, investors' attention is gradually shifting to macroeconomic indicators from the US, which inhibits the growth of consumer activity. Macroeconomic statistics show negative results not only in the USA. The data indicated a slowdown in consumer inflation in the euro area from 1.2% YoY to 0.7% YoY, which turned out to be worse than expert estimates. At the same time, investors drew attention to the surprisingly stable results on the labor market from Germany. The number of unemployed grew by only 1K, while analysts expected a growth of 29K. The Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 5%. Such strong results are due to the fact that data collection in Germany was completed before the start of national quarantine, and therefore they do not reflect the real situation on the market at the moment. GBP/USD GBP is falling against USD during today's Asian session, but the dynamics of the instrument in the short term remains flat. After a long decline last week, USD is trying to recover, but it has not yet been able to go into corrective growth, as investors are worried about the increasing uncertainty in the market and the disappointing macroeconomic data from the US. Today, traders are focused on the publication of statistics on business activity in the UK and the USA for March. Analysts expect a decline in all key indicators; however, American data can again exert the greatest pressure. In addition, today the release of ADP Employment Change report is expected. Experts expect to see a decrease in employment by 154K, but it is possible that the scale of the crisis in the labor market is underestimated. At the end of the week, the US will publish the final report on the labor market for March, which can deliver several anti-records at once. AUD/USD AUD shows multidirectional dynamics paired with USD, trading near 0.6100. USD failed to win back the losses of the past week, and is waiting for new drivers on the market. It is possible that the report on the US labor market, which will be released at the end of this week, will help to restore former activity; however, investors are afraid that this activity will be "bearish". In the meantime, a good macroeconomic statistics from Australia hinders further decline in the instrument. AiG Manufacturing Index went up from 44.3 to 53.7 points in March. Commonwealth Bank Manufacturing PMI fell from 50.1 to 49.7 points over the same period, which in the current situation can be considered positive. However, it is likely that the collected statistics are not entirely relevant, since it only partially captures the period of mass quarantine. USD/JPY USD is rising against JPY during today's Asian session, retreating from its local lows, updated earlier this week. The instrument adds about 0.17% and is testing the level of 107.70 for a breakout. Investors are noticeably frightened by the development of the coronavirus epidemic in the United States, which has already taken first place in the world in the number of confirmed cases. The pressure on USD is also reinforced by macroeconomic statistics from the United States, which gradually exerts more and more influence on the sentiment of traders. Investors are awaiting the publication of the March report on the US labor market, which will allow drawing preliminary conclusions about how much the world's first economy could suffer from the crisis. Macroeconomic data released in Japan on Wednesday turned out to be controversial. Tankan Large All Industry Capex in Q1 2020 slowed down from 6.8% QoQ to 1.8% QoQ, which was significantly better than market expectations of –1.1% QoQ. XAU/USD Gold prices are rising during today's Asian session, correcting after an active decline, which was triggered by another attempt of strengthening USD and the emergence of strong Chinese statistics. Chinese Non-Manufacturing PMI in March rose sharply from 29.6 to 52.3 points, which was significantly better than market expectations of 37.8 points. NBS Manufacturing PMI for the same period jumped from 35.7 to 52 points with a forecast of growth of only 45 points. The data from China were strong today as well; however, gold growth is again noticeable amid the expectations of the publication of the March US labor market report at the end of the week. Anyway, Caixin Manufacturing PMI in March rose from 40.3 to 50.1 points, while investors expected it to rise to only 46 points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted April 2, 2020 Share Posted April 2, 2020 EUR/USD Today, during the Asian trading session, the EUR/USD pair is falling, continuing the development of a downward correctional impulse formed at the beginning of the week. USD strengthens, supported by rising concerns about the further spread of coronavirus. In turn, the published macroeconomic data holds back the “bullish” activity, indicating a severe economic crisis that erupted in the American (and not only) economy. Yesterday, investors were focused on business activity data in Europe and the United States. In all areas, activity fell as expected, although some actual data were slightly better than forecasts. EU Manufacturing PMI for March fell from 44.8 to 44.5 points against the forecast of a weakening to 44.7 points. German data fell from 45.7 to 45.4 points, which also was worse than analysts' forecasts of 45.5 points. GBP/USD Today, during the Asian trading session, the GBP/USD pair shows flat dynamics, trading near 1.2400. USD is still in demand as a shelter asset, however, it is clear that the “bullish” activity is gradually slowing down, partly due to the expectation of new drivers in the market. At the end of this week, a March report on the US labor market will be released, which may put significant pressure on the position of the US currency. Yesterday, investors were focused on the ADP Nonfarm Payrolls report. At the end of March, the employment decreased by 27K after rising by 179K last month. However, the data are positive, as analysts expected a much more significant decrease, by 150K. On Wednesday, the British data on business activity slightly supported the pound. Markit Manufacturing PMI index fell from 48.0 to 47.8 points, which was better than market expectations, which suggested a weakening of the indicator to 47 points. NZD/USD Today, during the Asian trading session, the NZD/USD pair is growing slightly, retreating from local lows renewed yesterday. Now, the instrument has added about 0.35% and is testing the level of 0.5930 for a breakout. “Bullish” activity in the US currency is gradually decreasing at the end of the week when the US will publish its March report on the labor market, which will reflect the magnitude of the impending economic crisis. Yesterday, statistics on American business activity were released, as well as an ADP employment report, which unexpectedly was much better than its negative forecasts (–27K versus –150K). Markit Manufacturing PMI fell from 49.2 to 48.5 points with a neutral outlook. The ISM Manufacturing Employment decreased from 46.9 to 43.8 points against the forecast of 43.6 points. The ISM Manufacturing PMI fell from 50.1 to 49.1 points, while forecasts suggested it would drop to 45 points. USD/JPY Today, during the Asian trading session, the USD/JPY pair is growing slightly, correcting after yesterday's renewal of local lows since March 18. The dollar and the yen are still competing for the title of the best shelter asset but the current week for the US currency is quite difficult. Poor macroeconomic data from the United States, as well as expectations for the publication of the March report on the labor market at the end of the week, put significant pressure on the dollar. Also, the United States remains the main focus of the currently raging epidemic of coronavirus, which greatly increases the risks of uncertainty. XAU/USD Today, during the Asian trading session, the price of gold show flat dynamics, correcting after the growth of the instrument yesterday. However, it could not consolidate above the level of $1.600. Demand for the precious metal remains high amid extremely low investor interest in risk. Also, traders are wary of buying the dollar amid poor macroeconomic statistics and pending Friday's publication of the March report on the US labor market. The growth of gold also due to the closure of gold refineries around the world amid the strict quarantine measures that governments are taking to curb the coronavirus epidemic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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