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Daily Technical Analysis by FxGrow


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#761
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FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 21st March, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

Japanese Yen Sharpens Ahead of Local Data
USDJPY_zpsekogsfxa.png

U.S Dollar lost the tight grip and all rivals are taking advantage of pale greenback with 99.53 low today and U.S index on the path of further losses. USD/JPY currently bearish and the pair added extra consecutive bearish session to 5 initial with 112.26 low, and with current situation of US Dollar, the pair might dip lower.

BOJ board member Iwata crossed the wires last minutes, via Reuters, making a speech in parliament.

Key Headlines:

"JPY Could Weaken Vs USD Based On Interest Rate Differentials"

"Stresses Rate Differentials Are Not Only Factor In Determining FX Levels"

"Difficult to narrow output gap weak yen"

Iwata confirmed that interest rates are not the only factor for Yen bullish gains taking into consideration the collapsing U.S Dollar.  

Fundamentals:

1- JPY Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes today at 11:50 PM GMT.

2- JPY Japanese Trade Balance today at 11:50 PM GMT.

3- JPY All Industries Activity m/m tomorrow 4:30 AM GMT.

Technical:

Trend : Bearish

Resistance levels : R1 113.08, R2 113.96, R3 114.92

Support levels : S1 112.04, S2 111.45, S3 110.66

Remark : With U.S data empty pocket today and tomorrow, and taking current situation of weak US Dollar, the is set for additional losses. Keep an eye on US Index levels correlated with Yellen speech on Thursday. A penetration for R2 and closing above it is a signal for trend reversal. Be careful for setbacks on support and resistance levels as a first test.

For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.


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#762
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FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 23rd March, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

Gold Seeks Further Gains Over Crisp U.S Dollar, Eyes on Yellen
Gold_zps1gv9w8bu.png

Gold has prolonged bullish trading session with a 1251.34 high yesterday and currently, XAUUSD is confined 47-pips range price action, slightly above 50-SMA (H1). Overall, gold added +$53.89 since March Fed hike. USD collapsed dramatically on Tuesday and extended losses yesterday at 99.32 low, digging deeper for 2017-new-lows at 99.19, which supported gold bullish momentum.

History and logic suggest that when the United States starts a monetary tightening cycle, gold will under-perform, since as a non-yielding asset it loses out to instruments that will enjoy higher yields from the rising rates.

According to the World Gold Council (WGC), China's gold demand has dropped this year, with third quarter consumer demand at 182.5 tons, down 22% from the same period in 2015, while India's 194.8 tons is 28% lower. Analysts are expecting China's and India's gold demand to remain steady in 2017.. China and India are the world's biggest gold-consuming nations.  

Today, U.S economic data is heavy first with Unemployment claims which in case positive, should re-balance U.S index levels with upward correction, but the main focus is on Yellen speech and traders will try to decipher words and signals out of her speech.

Fundamentals:

1- USD unemployment rate today at 12:30 PM GMT.

2- USD Yellen speech today at 12:45 PM GMT.

Technical :

Trend : Bullish Sideways

Daily Pp  1247

Resistance levels : R1 1252.20, R2 1264.87, R3 1280.76

Support levels : S1 1242.33, S2 1230.62, S3 1218.83

Remark : Overall gold is bullish but U.S data today is vital especially Yellen speech in relation with low USD levels. Stalling above R1 level is a Déjà vu of last 2 weeks rallies with R2 level as target. Closing above R2 projects further bullish attacks at R3 level.  A stall around 1251 could prompt setbacks, but trade should hold within Tuesday's range to maintain strong bull forces. Closing below S2 alerts for trend reversal and market to consider gold bearish. U.S index is the main player.

For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.


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#763
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FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 23rd March, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

Wallowing U.S Index and Supper Yellen with Possible Scenarios
Yellen_zpsmcxbjqo6.jpg

Since FOMC epic decision with 0.25% hike to initial 0.75%, U.S Index has collapsed dramatically. After peeking to $102.26 Feb-highs, the Index has shed -$2.94 and anchored yesterday at $99.32, closing to 2017 lowest at $99.19. Below are the factors contributing to bearish U.S Index Foreces.

1- Markers had already priced in and traded on the fact that Fed hike was inevitable. So basically, the FOMC decision had zero contribution to the market "Buy the rumor sell the fact " fitted like the last peace of puzzle and the USD decline picture was drawn.

2- Traders were awaiting further instructions by Yellen and Co. about coming Fed hikes, but details were not listed.

3- Doubts about Trump's capacity to provide the right leadership for Republican party have been creeping into the market fueled by allegations about links of his election campaign with relation to Russian contributes and recent Trump's real estate bought by Russians as Greg Gibbs, Director at Amplifying Global FX Capital pointed yesterday. Also Trump's bombastic style including wild claims about wire taps for the white house when he addressed journalists in previous appearances.  

Fact : Combine these above elements, no wonder why U.S Index has tumbled and in case of further declines, it's logic.

Now after we have briefed the above, the real question is, How will Yellen play along today when she appears preceded  by U.S Unemployment Claims. If Yellen came out with promises about coming hikes, markets will start pricing in and trading on her words and the whole cycle ( U.S Index ) will be repeated again as Déjà vu. Recent speeches of FOMC's members Dudley and Evans with their declrelations supports the coming scenario further more. So, Yellen will try to avoid this scenario and turn into different aspect in which she will focus on how strong the U.S economy is supported by positive unemployment data, inflation rate, recent CPI, NFP, and retails sales which should boost U.S Index to a 100.46 where trend will make a reverse and turn bullish.

Remark: Previous unemployment claims were 240K and forecasts for today are 241, narrowing down the gaps between the number, skepticism or confusion about comparison between recent, initial, and forecasts will be tight. Traders always tend to read the data in different way when recent is more than forecasts but less then previous, along with it, bearish and bullish volatility.

For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.


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#764
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FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 24th March, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

EUR/USD Guarding Tuesday's Gains Ahead of Local Data
EURUSD_zps6mzaqi82.png

EUR/USD inaugurated Friday's trading sessions with aggressive selling and lost -26-pips after clocking a high 1.0786. The pair peeked to 1.0819 on Monday and prolonged additional 5-pips on Tuesday over arousing political optimism driven by Netherlands recent elections and French polls claiming Macron ahead of Le Pen ( Anti EU). However, the political optimism was jinxed by stingy reviving U.S Index today with a 99.79 high today.

Yesterday, U.S unemployment claims were negative with 258K compared to 241K on previous sessions but markets were focused on Yellen speech, and as always, Yellen will always be Yellen with her vague hints. Markets were expecting a support for U.S Index justified by Yellen timing and collapsing U.S Index, but the lady didn't even comment on monetary policy. Eyes today are shifted towards Trump health care program which should boost U.S Dollar up or down, depending on the final outcome.

Today, EU economic pocket is heavy from French and Germany, services and manufacturing PMI, which will give an estimate on how the EU economy is heading and it's health.

Fundamentals :

1- EUR - French Flash Manufacturing and services PMI today at 8:00 AM GMT.

2- -EUR - German Flash Manufacturing and services PMI today at 8:30 AM GMT.

3- EUR - EU Flash Manufacturing and services PMI  today at 9:00 AM GMT.

4- USD - Core Durable Goods Orders today at 12:30 PM GMT.  

Technical :

Trend : Bullish Sideways

Resistance levels : R1 1.0790, R2 1.0822, R3 1.0843, R4 1.0866

Support levels : S1 1.0744, S2 1.0705, S3 1.0662, S4 1.0635

Remark :Currently the pair is still considered bullish due to weaker U.S Dollar with sideways options due to the ebb and flow between EUR and USD. The above variety of economic news will decide how cable trend will settle in the coming hours. Keep an eyes on U.S index with coloration of U.S data and Trump health care voting today.

For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.


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#765
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FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 24th March, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

USD/CAD Remains Bullish Despite Bearish U.S Dollar
USDCAD_zpsqgwnsqxj.png

Although U.S Dollar is toothless for the past 12 consecutive sessions with  99.32 weekly-fresh-lows, USD/CAD remained bullish today and confined with 31-pips price action. Unlike USD rivals, the Loonie failed to take advantage of weaker U.S Dollar, tailed by collapsing crude oil levels for the past 2 weeks. The pair clocked 1.3377 high and currently shifting sail course and reversing daily bullish candle to inverse hammer candle supported by rising crude oil levels. The pair is currently trading 1.3354, slightly above its daily Pp 1.3341.

Loonie economic data is colorful today, but the main focus will be on Consumer Price Index ( CPI ), taking into consideration that inflation currently has reached 2.13%. Today's data could be an indicator for the coming BOC meeting for interest rates.  

Fundamentals:

1- CAD - CPI today at 12:30 PM GMT.

2- CAD - CPI common, CPI median, and CPI trimmed y/y today at 12:30 PM GMT.

3- USD - Core Durable goods today at 12:30 PM GMT.

Technical :

Trend : Bullish sideways

Resistance levels : R1 1.3408, R2 1.3463, R3 1.3535

Support levels : S1 1.3315, S2 1.3247, S3 1.3174

Remark : Keep an eyes on U.S Index levels as its a measurement for USD/CAD performance. Also, Canadian today is vital on the short and long run.


For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.


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