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"Fort Financial Services"-fundamental and technical analysis


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#521
ValdisTF

ValdisTF

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"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.
 
04.01.2017
Euro
 
General overview
 
The euro ignored the upbeat data from the EU on Tuesday. Unemployment Change in Germany showed positive figures. Consumer Price Index in France grew as well. We expect European Services PMI and PMI Composite from Markit today.
 
Current situation
 
The pair opened on a stronger note on Tuesday. Buyers moved the pair from 1.0450 to 1.0500 in the early trades. However, an upward impetus stalled at the beginning of the European session. The currency pair experienced a notable USD demand amid prevalent risk-on sentiment. The euro dropped below 1.0450 and tested 1.0400 in the mid-European session. According to the 4 hours chart the price bounced off the 100 EMA and broke the 50 EMA downwards. The 100 and 200-EMAs maintained their bearish slope while the 50-EMA was neutral. The resistance is at 1.0450, the support comes in at 1.0400.
 
MACD entered the negative area. If MACD remains in the negative territory, sellers’ positions will strengthen. The RSI indicator remained within oversold readings. 
 
Trading recommendations
 
The technical picture presents a bearish tone. The pair now seems to be heading towards its immediate support near 1.0350.
 
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Pound
 
General overview
 
UK’s manufacturing PMI temporally supported the pound on Tuesday. However, a broad US dollar's strength limited the major gains.
 
Current situation
 
The pound was in a neutral-to-bearish stance on Tuesday. GBP/USD rebounded from earlier lows in the Asian session, however, the pound failed to advance beyond 1.2300 where the major ran through fresh offers. The pour dropped to 1.2245, however, a fresh bout of buying interest helped the sterling to reverse its early losses and returned the spot to the 1.23 hurdle. The price broke the 50-EMA upwards in the 4 hours chart. The major was unable to leave the 50 EMA region and stayed around it during the day. All moving averages kept pointing lower. The resistance lies at 1.2300, the support comes in at 1.2200.
 
MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram returns the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD enters into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. The RSI indicator remained within the neutral territory.
 
Trading recommendations
 
The bearish trend remains intact. As the most probable scenario, we consider further moving downwards towards the level at 1.2200.
 
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Yen
 
General overview
 
Japanese markets were closed yesterday amid New Year holidays. The dollar kept strengthening versus the yen following the upbeat Chinese data which switched on the risk sentiment in the market. As it became known Chinese Manufacturing PMI for December showed better-than-expected results reaching the 4 year peak.
 
Current situation
 
USD/JPY returned to full bullish mode on Tuesday. A fresh wave of dollar buying interest lifted the pair to the multi-month peaks. After a brief consolidation in the Asian session on Tuesday the currency pair rallied to 118.00 at the beginning of the European session. The upward impulse stalled after testing the level where the USD/JPY pair remained before the NY opening. The price bounced off the 100-EMA and broke the 50-EMA upwards in the 4 hours chart. The spot remained above the 50-EMA during the day. The 100 and the 200-EMAs kept pointing higher while the 50-EMA turned neutral. The resistance is highlighted at 118.00, the support comes in at 117.00.
 
MACD entered the positive area. If MACD remains in the positive territory, buyers’ positions will strengthen. The RSI headed towards the overbought readings.
 
Trading recommendations
 
The price maintains its bullish tone in the 4 hours chart. After a close above the resistance at 118.00 the pair may extend its growth to 119.00, en route to 120.00.
 
12548894.jpg
 
NZD/USD
 
General overview
 
The kiwi was able to regain some ground versus its US peer following solid Chinese manufacturing PMI data.
 
Current situation
 
Despite broad based greenback strength, the NZD/USD pair manages to recover in the early trades on Tuesday. The kiwi jumped upwards and broke the level 0.6950 in the mid-Asian session. However, overnight’s recovery attempt stalled just under 0.6950 barrier where the pair met a fresh selling interest. The NZD/USD pair returned below the level post-Europe open and headed towards its immediate support at 0.6900. According to the 4 hours chart the price broke the 50-EMA upwards in the early trades. The currency pair failed to extend its gains and returned to the 50-EMA ahead of the NA session. The 100 and the 200-EMAs maintained their bearish slope while the 50-EMA was neutral. The resistance is at 0.6950, the support comes in at 0.6900.
 
MACD traded to the downside. RSI oscillator left the overvalued readings and was in the neutral territory during the day. 
 
Trading recommendations
 
The bearish scenario prevailed on Tuesday. We suppose the NZD/USD pair will go to 0.6900 first. Having overcome the first target the price might advance towards 0.6850.
 
12551966.jpg
 
XAU/USD
 
General overview
 
Better-than expected Chinese manufacturing PMI helped gold to erase some losses on Tuesday. 
 
Current situation
 
Gold managed to recover in the early trades on Tuesday. Gold prices grew to 1160 dollars per ounce where it came across a bunch of fresh offers which weighed on the benchmark. The price sharply dropped and returned to the opening level. The 4 hours chart showed that the price was struggling with the 100 during the day. The 100 and the 200-EMA maintained pointed lower while the 50-EMA was neutral. The resistance exists at 1160, the support stands at 1150 dollars per ounce.
 
The MACD histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ strength. RSI left the positive territory and headed south.
 
Trading recommendations
 
We recommend going short with the first target – 1140 dollars per ounce. When the price consolidates below the first target it risks declining towards 1130.
 
12561182.jpg
 
Brent
 
General overview
 
Oil prices extended their gains posting fresh 18-month highs following the news that Kuwait and Oman fulfill OPEC deal cut. The overall tone is positive as investors hope that an OPEC output cut deal will materialize this month.
 
Current situation
 
Brent had a positive start to 2017. The benchmark rallied to fresh daily top on Tuesday. Oil prices gapped higher at the daily open. An Asian attempt to reclaim 57.50 dollars per barrel failed and the price returned to the opening level. European traders made another attempt to break through the hurdle. They retook the level post-Europe open and headed towards 58.50. The benchmark was going to test the level in the NY session. Brent bounced off the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs kept pointing higher in the same chart. The resistance lies at 57.50, the support comes in at 56.50 dollars per barrel.
 
The MACD histogram grew which indicates buyers’ strength. The RSI indicator remained within overvalued readings.
 
Trading recommendations
 
The overall outlook remains bullish, for rise towards 59.50 resistance area. However, the first buyers’ target is the level 58.50 dollars per barrel. 
 
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DAX
 
General overview
 
European shares advanced amid oil amid metal prices jump following the upbeat China data. Moreover positive data from EU coupled with banking sector rise supported the European stocks.
 
Current situation
 
The index gapped higher at the daily open. However, buyers failed to extend their gains and returned to the opening level afterwards. According to the 4 hours chart the price bounced off the 50-EMA and hovered above the moving during the day. The moving averages kept pointing higher. The resistance exists at 11600, the support stands at 11500.
 
The MACD histogram grew which indicates buyers’ strength. The RSI oscillator consolidated within positive area.
 
Trading recommendations
 
In the scenario where the buyers keep control the price will advance to 11700.
 
12533535.jpg
 
NASDAQ
 
General overview
 
Wall Street showed big gains on Tuesday. Investors had their eyes on the upcoming US Manufacturing. 
 
Current situation
 
NASDAQ gapped higher at the daily open on Tuesday. The index maintained its bid tone afterwards. Traders drove the benchmark to the 4900 hurdle where the upward trajectory slowed down. The 4 hours chart showed that the price bounced off the 200-EMA. The 100 and 200-EMAs maintained their bullish slope while the 50-EMA turned lower. The resistance is at 4900, the support comes in at 4865.
 
MACD traded to the upside. The RSI bounced off the oversold readings. 
 
Trading recommendations
 
A break above 4900 risks a growth towards the resistance at 4940. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension towards 4980 could be observed further.
 
12526367.jpg
 
 *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman
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#522
ValdisTF

ValdisTF

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"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.
 
05.01.2017
 
Euro
 
General overview
 
The euro strengthened against its US rival getting support from the EU upbeat data. According to Eurostat the Euroland inflation has been expanding at its fastest pace. Positive Markit Services and Composite PMIs in Germany and France supported the euro as well.
 
Current situation
 
From a technical point of view, the pair remained in a mid-term downward channel staying around its lower boundary. However, the 4 hours chart presented a limited upward potential. The euro took an advantage of a weaker dollar and reversed a minor part of its recent losses on yesterday’s trades. Buyers pushed prices to 1.0450 where the upward impetus faded in the mid-European session. After touching the level the euro slightly rolled back staying in its region. The price tested the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 100 and 200-EMAs kept pointing lower while the 50-EMA remained neutral. EUR/USD remained below the moving averages in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is at 1.0450, the support comes in at 1.0400.
 
MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI left oversold readings and entered the neutral territory. 
 
Trading recommendations
 
Euro is expected stay under pressure unless it reclaims 1.0500 hurdle. An advance beyond 1.0500 will likely result in further recoveries. We believe buyers may push the EUR/USD to 1.0550. A break below 1.0400 will suggest further weakness of the EUR/USD pair. The level 1.0350 is the primary sellers’ target.
 
12572540.jpg
 
Pound
General overview
 
The British pound recovered some ground when the fresh UK data showed upbeat figures. Thus, Construction PMI, Mortgage Approvals and Consumer Credit surpassed all traders’ expectations showing a stable growth of the UK economy after the Brexit.
 
Current situation
 
The sterling recovered some ground, but remained weak against the US dollar trading below the 1.2300 mark on Wednesday. Traders were able to push the price upwards in the early trades. The GBP/USD pair recovered to 1.2285 where the upward trajectory lost its legs post-European open. According to the 4 hours chart the price tested the 50-EMA in the Asian session on Wednesday. The price failed to retake the level and remained well below the moving averages in the same chart. The moving averages maintained their bearish slope. The resistance lies at 1.2300, the support comes in at 1.2200.
 
MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram returns the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD enters into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. The RSI indicator remained within the neutral territory.
 
Trading recommendations
 
The technical picture presents a bearish tone. We recommend going short with the first target – 1.2200. When the price consolidates below the first target it may extend its bearishness to the 1.2100 level. However, if the dollar keeps easing across the board, the currency pair may continue its recovery from the two-month low. To neutralize the current downward pressure buyers need to retake 1.2300. After breaking the level the pair may recover to 1.2350.
 
12567420.jpg
 
Yen
 
General overview
 
The yen ignored positive Manufacturing PMI from Nikkei and remained under pressure in the early trades on Wednesday. European equity markets mild cautious sentiment switched off the risk appetite supporting the yen as a safe-heaven currency later the day. Moreover, the US Treasury bond yields retracement kept on weighing on the greenback.
 
Current situation
 
From a technical point of view USD/JPY remains in a neutral-to-bullish stance. The pair failed to sustain the Asian recovery when buyers met a solid barrier around 118.00 and had to step back. The spot eased off the 118.00 level and erased all its daily gains afterwards. According to the 4 hours chart the price tested the 50-EMA twice during the day. Traders failed to break the line which rejected them every time. The 100 and the 200-EMAs pointed higher while the 50-EMA was neutral. The price remained hovering above the moving averages during the day. The resistance is highlighted at 118.00, the support comes in at 117.00.
 
MACD traded to the upside. The RSI left the overvalued readings and entered the neutral area.
 
Trading recommendations
 
In the scenario where the buyers keep control the pair will advance to 118.00 first. The potential buyers’ target is 119.00.
 
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USD/CAD
 
General overview
Oil market positive sentiment supported the commodity-linked currency like Canadian dollar on Wednesday.
 
Current situation
 
The dollar recovery in the Asian session stalled around 1.3470 when the currency pair ran through fresh offers and dropped below 1.3400 support at the beginning of the European trades. Sellers extended their gains in the European session and headed towards 1.3260 handle. The downward pressure ran out of steam around 1.3300. The price bounced off the mark towards 1.3330. The price broke the 100 and 200 EMAs downwards in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA and the 100-EMAs pointed higher while the 200-EMA was neutral. The resistance is at 1.3400, the support comes in at 1.3330.
 
The MACD histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ strength. The RSI indicator remained within oversold readings. 
 
Trading recommendations
 
If the price fixates below the level 1.3330, sellers may continue a downward trend in the short term. The potential sellers’ targets are 1.3260 and 1.3190. We do not rule out and a recovery on profit taking. USD/CAD may reverse some of its losses if it returns above 1.3330.
 
12576636.jpg
 
XAU/USD
 
General overview
 
Gold moved higher on Wednesday despite a positive dollar. The dollar retracement seems to be the only factor pushing the metal higher. The dollar is strong and we wonder if gold manages to sustain its recovery strength.
 
Current situation
 
XAU/USD opened green on Wednesday. Traders broke 1160 and advanced to 1170 during the Asian hours. The pair was unable to climb higher and retreated almost immediately after the level test. According to the 4 hours chart the price tested the 200-EMA. The 100 and the 200-EMA maintained their bearish slope while the 50-EMA pointed higher. The resistance exists at 1160, the support stands at 1150 dollars per ounce.
 
MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. The RSI oscillator consolidated within positive area.
 
Trading recommendations
 
We would be selling the gold metal only if the price drops below 1150. Then it may advance towards 1140 dollars per ounce.  
 
12531581.jpg
 
Brent
 
General overview
 
Oil prices remained under pressure on Wednesday waiting for weekly U.S. stockpiles data. 
 
Current situation
 
Brent managed to reverse a small portion of its recent losses in the Asian session on Wednesday. Bulls, however, met a barrier at 56.13 region which rejected prices downwards in the European session. The benchmark was trying hard to retake the level 55.50 dollars per barrel during the European hours and continued with it in the NY session. The price broke the 50-EMA and tested the 100 EMA in the European session. All moving averages kept pointing higher in the 4 hours chart. The resistance lies at 56.50, the support comes in at 55.50 dollars per barrel.
 
MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram enters the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. The RSI indicator was within oversold readings.
Trading recommendations
 
After a close above the resistance at 56.50 the price may extend its growth to 57.50. A sharp breakout below 55.50 could spark a further decline towards 54.50, en rout to 53.50 dollars per barrel.
 
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DAX
 
General overview
 
European bourses turned negative on Wednesday. Investors kept weighing up fresh macro updates from the Eurozone and UK. Moreover, traders refrained from creating fresh positions ahead of the FOMC minutes and preferred to book some profit.
 
Current situation
 
The index had a negative day on Wednesday. Bears were in control moving DAX downwards. The benchmark pushed away from the 11600 hurdle and advanced towards 11500 support region. The price kept hovering above the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages maintained their bullish slope. The resistance exists at 11600, the support stands at 11500.
 
MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI indicator stayed within the undervalued territory.
 
Trading recommendations
 
A downward correction will start as soon, as the Germany's DAX 30 drops below the support level 11500. Then we consider further moving downwards towards the level at 11400.
 
12546941.jpg
 
S&P500
 
General overview
 
Wall Street edged higher on Wednesday awaiting for the Fed's minutes hoping to hear new rate hike dates.
 
Current situation
 
S&P500 edged higher and recovered nearly half of the two-week entire decline. Market participants moved the price to 2260 level which slowed down their advance. The benchmark tested the level in the NY session and kept on battling with it during the US hours. According to the 4 hours chart the price tested the 50 and the 100-EMAs. The 50-EMA crossed the 100-EMA downwards. The 100 and 200-EMAs pointed higher while the 50-EMA remained neutral. The resistance is at 2260, the support comes in at 2240.
 
MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram enters the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. The RSI left the neutral area and headed north. 
Trading recommendations
 
The bullish views are getting more popular now. All eyes are right now at the resistance level 2260. A cut through here will turn attention to the 2280 level, en route to 2300.
 
12545917.jpg
 
 
 *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman
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#523
ValdisTF

ValdisTF

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"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.
 
06.01.2017
 
Euro
 
General overview
 
The euro turned negative ahead of EU’s Producer Price Index on Thursday. Despite the better-than-expected figures the single European currency lost its value. The lack of strong data from the Euroland turned traders’ attention to the US calendar. The US was going to publish a bunch of labor market reports: ADP Employment Change and US Initial Jobless Claims. PMI Composite from Markit was worth our attention as well.
 
Current situation
 
The EUR/USD pair opened on a strong note on Thursday. The pair was able to advance up to 1.0574 where it met a barrier and turned bearish. The single European currency bounced off the mark and headed lower afterwards. Sellers broke the level 1.0550 during European morning trades and tested 1.0500 in the mid-European session. The currency pair returned to a decline ahead of the NY opening when bears headed towards 1.0450. According to the 4 hours chart the price broke the 50 and the 100-EMAs upwards and tested the 200-EMA during the early trades. The euro failed to retake the bearish 200-EMA and bounced off the moving post-European open. The 100 and 200-EMAs pointed lower while the 50-EMA remained neutral. The resistance is at 1.0500, the support comes in at 1.0450.
 
MACD entered the positive area. If MACD remains in the positive territory, buyers’ positions will strengthen. RSI oscillator bounced off the overvalued readings. 
 
Trading recommendations
 
The bearish trend remained intact. As the most probable scenario, we consider further moving downwards towards the levels 1.0450 and 1.0400. However, a move above 1.0550 may neutralize the current selling pressure. The EUR/USD pair may extend its recovery up to 1.0650.
 
12524243.jpg
 
Pound
 
General overview
 
The pound was able to strengthen versus its US peer amid soft Fed’s remarks. Moreover, the pound got some support on the back of the upbeat Services PMI.
 
Current situation
 
The sterling turned bearish when its recovery stalled at 1.2361. The currency pair ran through fresh offers, reversed its direction and dropped to 1.2269 at the Asian session end. After posting the session low buyers reversed some of their recent losses and returned to 1.2300 hurdle. According to the 4 hours chart the price broke the 50-EMA upwards and tested the 100-EMA. GBP/USD stayed between the 50 and 100 EMAs afterwards. All moving averages kept pointing lower in the same chart. The resistance lies at 1.2300, the support comes in at 1.2200.
 
MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram returns the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD enters into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. The RSI indicator remained within neutral territory.
 
Trading recommendations
 
Despite the recent recovery the GBP/USD pair maintained its bearish tone in the 4 hours chart. If we see a close below 1.2300 we will go short. The next sellers’ targets are 1.2250 and 1.2200.
 
12520147.jpg
 
Yen
 
General overview
 
The US dollar keeps losing its value across the board amid growing uncertainty over the next Fed rate hike timing. Moreover, the Fed is uncertain about the upcoming Trump administration.
 
Current situation
 
The USD/JPY pair remained under intense selling pressure on Thursday. Sellers continued to dominate and dragged the pair lower in the Asian session. The downward move lacked momentum around 116.00. After posting a session low at 115.60 the US dollar staged an impressive recovery and erased all its early losses. The price returned to the opening prices where its recovery momentum stalled. Despite the ongoing recovery USD/JPY remained in bearish territory. The price broke the 50 and the 100-EMAs downwards in the 4 hours chart. The US dollar remained between the 100 and 200 EMAs the first part of the day. The 100 and the 200-EMAs kept pointing higher while the 50-EMA remained neutral. The resistance is highlighted at 117.00, the support comes in at 116.00.
 
MACD entered the negative area. If MACD remains in the negative territory, sellers’ positions will strengthen. The RSI was within oversold readings.
 
Trading recommendations
 
A bullish tone prevails in the 4 hours chart. We expect a full recovery which will start as soon as the USD/JPY pair rises above the resistance level 117.00. Buyers may move towards 118.00 and 119.00. Otherwise we will see the spot moving towards 115.00.
 
12532435.jpg
 
AUD/USD
 
Current situation
 
Recovery rally from 0.7150 ran out of steam a few pips below 0.7350. The pair turned bearish ahead of the European session opening. Sellers managed to push the price to 0.7300 handle where they took a breath gathering steam for more action. According to the 4 hours chart the price broke the 50 and the 100-EMAs upwards. The Australian dollar failed to hold its gains and returned to the 100-EMA afterwards. The 100 and 200 EMAs kept pointing lower while the 50-EMA was flat. The resistance is at 0.7300, the support comes in at 0.7250.
 
The MACD histogram grew which indicates buyers’ strength. The RSI indicator remained within oversold readings. 
 
Trading recommendations
 
Our mid-term view on the Aussie is bearish. A move below 0.7300 would suggest a resumption of a downward movement. In this scenario the AUD/USD pair might advance to 0.7250 and 0.7200. 
 
12538579.jpg
 
XAU/USD
 
General overview
 
Gold presumed its recovery on the back of a broad based US dollar weakness after dovish Fed minutes.
 
Current situation
 
Gold extended the two-day recovery on Thursday. The precious metal broke 1170 dollars per ounce and tested the 1180 hurdle in the Asian session. Buyers had no strength to move higher and retreated back to 1170. The 4 hours chart showed that the price broke the 200-EMA upwards. The price continued developing well above the 200-EMA afterwards. The 50-EMA crossed the 100-EMA upwards in the mentioned timeframe. The 100 and the 200-EMA pointed lower while the 50-EMA was higher. The resistance exists at 1180, the support stands at 1170 dollars per ounce.
 
MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. RSI indicator remained within undervalued territory.
 
Trading recommendations
 
We a bullish short-term and expect a growth towards 1190 dollars per ounce. Meanwhile only a break below 1150 will indicate that the current bullish recovery is over. In this scenario, sellers may lead prices towards 1130 dollars per ounce.
 
12534483.jpg
 
Brent
 
General overview
 
Brent ignored bullish US crude oil inventories and returned to a growth on Thursday. Brent oil prices got support after Saudi Arabia informed its customers to cut oil production, thus supporting OPEC plan to reduce global supply.
 
Current situation
 
Brent oil was modestly flat during the Asian hours on Thursday. The benchmark could move higher in the European session. Buyers broke the level 56.50 and trended to 57.50 dollars per barrel. The price was around 56.90 ahead of the NY opening. The “black gold” bounced off the 100-EMA and broke the 50-EMA upwards in the 4 hours chart. Brent extended its gains after the 50-EMA break and moved away from the moving averages. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAS maintained their bullish slope in the same chart. The resistance lies at 57.50, the support comes in at 56.50 dollars per barrel.
 
MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram returns the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD enters into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. The RSI indicator left oversold readings and entered the neutral area.
 
Trading recommendations
 
If buyers continue to dominate a close above 56.50 will trigger gains towards 57.50 and 58.50 dollars per barrel. 
 
12546771.jpg
 
DAX
 
General overview
 
European futures edged lower on Thursday but remained around their recent highs. Energy stocks traded mixed with French and Italian shares fell down and Norwegian companies shares gained. Financial stocks were mixed as well. French bank led its shares lower while Germany’s Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank shares rose.
 
Current situation
 
DAX30 gapped lower at the daily open when prices jumped from 11578 to 11552. The index turned around right after the gap and reversed all its losses. Buyers led the price to the nearest resistance level – 11600. However, bulls failed to retake the hurdle and the benchmark rolled back. According to the 1 hour chart the price tested the 50-EMA. DAX30 failed to break the 50-EMA and was struggling with it during the European hours. The benchmark remained above the moving averages which kept pointing higher in the same chart. The resistance exists at 11600, the support stands at 11500.
 
MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. RSI indicator was within the undervalued territory favoring a move south.
 
Trading recommendations
 
The price is bullish on intraday charts. The index now seems to be struggling with its immediate resistance at 11600. Should the price break above the hurdle and the benchmark will extend its bullishness towards 11700.
 
12548819.jpg
 
NASDAQ
 
General overview
 
Wall Street opened flat on the back of the mixed data. Initial Jobless Claims showed upbeat figures while ADP Employment Change came in the red.
 
Current situation
 
The bearish scenario prevailed on Thursday. The index moved lower from its recent high at 4940. Its further gains are limited by the current hurdle which rejects the benchmark on its any up-move. The 4 hours chart showed that the price broke the 100-EMA upwards and tested the 50-EMA.The S&P500 continued developing well above the moving averages during the day. The 200-EMA pointed higher while the 50 and the 100-EMAs were neutral. The resistance is at 4940, the support comes in at 4900.
 
MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram enters the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. The RSI entered the neutral area. 
 
Trading recommendations
 
The overall outlook remains bullish, for a rise towards 4980 resistance area.
 
12557011.jpg
 
 
 *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman
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#524
ValdisTF

ValdisTF

    Advanced Member

  • Member
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  • 725 posts
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.
 
09.01.2017
 
Euro
 
General overview
 
Weak data from the Eurozone slowed down buyers’ activity on Friday: Factory Orders and Retail Sales in Germany came in worse than expected. All eyes were on today's release of US NFP numbers which were expected to come around 180K.
 
Current situation
 
The bullish market structure remained in place on Friday. Buyers met a barrier at 1.0600 and had to step back. The EUR/USD rolled back in the Asian session and made another attempt to retake the level in the European one. A fresh selling pressure pushed the pair downwards ahead of the NY opening. The price continued developing well above the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages were mixed with the 100 and 200 EMAs pointing lower and the 50-EMA turning upwards. The resistance is at 1.0600, the support comes in at 1.0550.
 
The technical indicators kept heading north within positive territory. The MACD histogram grew which indicates buyers’ strength. RSI oscillator remained within overvalued territory. 
 
Trading recommendations
 
The bullish momentum is likely to be regained if the pair extends its recovery towards 1.0650 and 1.0700 levels. On the other hand the upbeat NFP release may support the US dollar and weigh on the euro. In this scenario the currency pair will return to a downside and my drop to 1.0450.
 
12559937.jpg
 
Pound
 
General overview
 
There was nothing scheduled in the UK on Friday. Only the US data could move the market. Traders waited for labour data and Trade Balance figures.
 
Current situation
 
After climbing as high as the 1.2430 during Asian trades the cable lost strength and turned to a downside. The pound rolled back to the 1.2400 support region where it found decent support in the early trades. The GBP/USD pair move back and forth in an extremely narrow range during the European hours waiting for new stimulus. A fresh selling interest emerged ahead of the NY opening dragging the pair downwards. The price broke the 50 and the 100-EMAs upwards in the 4 hours chart. The cable stayed between the bearish 100-EMA and neutral 200-EMA during the morning trades. The resistance lies at 1.2400, the support comes in at 1.2300.
 
The technical indicators retreated partially from overbought territory. MACD traded to the downside. The RSI indicator remained within overvalued readings.
 
Trading recommendations
 
We will place buy orders if the GBPUSD does a breakout at the resistance level of 1.2400. The price might extend its recovery towards 1.2450 and 1.2500. Alternatively, a move towards 1.23 would generate negative signal and risk further easing. Sellers may drive the pair to 1.2200.
 
12571201.jpg
 
Yen
 
General overview
 
The US dollar returned some lost ground following Trump’s threats to tax Toyota Motor Corp. if it builds a plant in Mexico.
 
Current situation
 
The overall structure is bullish. The market will be in bulls' hands until the price is above the current trend line. Meanwhile, the USD/JPY pair extended its recovery momentum from the 115.00 psychological mark in the Asian session on Friday. The US dollar reversed its early losses and returned above 116.00 hurdle. Buyers extended their gains and moved the spot upwards ahead of the NA session opening. The Asian recovery stalled at 116.37 and the dollar returned to 116.00 afterwards. According to the 4 hours chart the spot bounced off the 200-EMA. The 50-EMA crossed the 100-EMA downwards in the same chart. The 100 and the 200-EMAs pointed higher while the 50-EMA was lower. The resistance is highlighted at 116.00, the support comes in at 115.00.
 
MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. The RSI remained within oversold readings.
 
Trading recommendations
 
A move below 115.00 will signal the presence of sellers. We cannot rule out the chance that the pair would try to get to the level at 114.00 in the short-term. Conversely, USD/JPY will resume its uptrend as soon, as the price rises above the resistance level 117.00.
 
12568129.jpg
 
NZD/USD
 
Current situation
 
The New Zealand dollar extended its recovery versus the US dollar in mid-Asia. However, the pair failed to advance beyond 0.7050 and jumped back after touching the level. NZD/USD was confined to the tight range between 0.7000 and 0.7030 during the European hours. A bout of fresh selling interest dragged the kiwi downwards ahead of the NY opening. The price sharply dropped to 0.7000 handle and extended its losses afterwards. The 4 hours chart showed that the price broke 50 and 100-EMAs upwards and tested the 200-EMA. The price was battling with the neutral 200-EMA during the European session. The 50-EMA pointed higher while the 100-EMA turned south. The resistance is highlighted at 0.7050, the support comes in at 0.7000.
 
The technical indicators headed north within bullish territory. The MACD histogram grew which indicates buyers’ growing strength. The RSI indicator was within overvalued readings. 
Trading recommendations
The technical picture presents a bullish tone. A break above 0.7050 risks a growth towards the resistance at 0.7100.
 
12580417.jpg
 
XAU/USD
 
General overview
 
Gold futures edged lower on Friday on expectation of the US labor data hoping to get fresh clues over the Fed rate-hike plans in 2017.
 
Current situation
 
Gold prices retreated below 1180 after posting fresh weekly highs at 1184 dollars per ounce. The metal stayed range-bound to lower below the current hurdle during the European hours. The price hovered above the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA crossed the 100-EMA upwards in the same chart.  The 50-EMA pointed higher while the 100-EMA was flat and the 200-EMA pointed lower. The resistance exists at 1180, the support stands at 1170 dollars per ounce.
 
The MACD histogram grew which is a buy signal. RSI indicator was within undervalued readings.
 
Trading recommendations
 
A bearish tone prevails in the 4 hours chart. We suppose the gold metal will decline to 1170 first. Having overcome the first target the price might advance towards 1160 dollars per ounce. A weak NFP release will support the precious metal sending it to fresh highs. The XAU/USD pair may reach 1190 in the short-term.
 
12582465.jpg
 
Brent
 
General overview
 
Oil prices strengthened after Crude inventories fell on Thursday. The market will be focused on oil rig count data report in the coming sessions.
 
Current situation
 
The market remains in bulls' hands. Brent strengthened further reaching fresh multi-month highs ion Friday. Buyers extended their upward trajectory towards 57.50 in the Asian session. Market participants failed to move the benchmark higher. The level rejected the price which slightly rolled back post-European opening. The 4 hours chart showed that the price was above all of its moving averages. The moving averages kept pointing higher in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance lies at 57.50, the support comes in at 56.50 dollars per barrel.
 
MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram returns the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD enters into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. The RSI indicator left neutral area and moved to upside. 
Trading recommendations
 
The bullish scenario prevailed on Friday. Once we break above 57.50, we think that the 58.50 level will be next.
 
12575297.jpg
 
DAX
 
General overview
 
European shares edged lower on Friday following a decline in precious and industrial metal sectors. Energy sector faced some selling pressure as well following a drop in European oil and gas index. Besides, traders took wait-and-see mode awaiting for US Non-farm payrolls release.
 
Current situation
 
DAX traded mostly sideways and the outlook for the day is mixed. The index went back and forth during the course of the session on Friday. The price struggled to take out the 50 EMA barrier during the first part of the day. The 100 and the 200-EMAs kept pointing higher while the 50-EMA was flat. The resistance exists at 11600, the support stands at 11500.
 
MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI indicator stayed within neutral area. 
 
Trading recommendations
 
Sellers seem to be gaining more control. To trigger fresh downward momentum the index needs to break through 11500. After breaking the level sellers will target at 11400.
 
12525134.jpg
 
S&P500
 
General overview
 
Wall Street opened flat as traders were in “wait-and-see” mode ahead of US nonfarm payrolls release.
 
Current situation
 
S&P500 stayed in a tight range above 2260 during the European hours on Friday. According to the 4 hours chart the price bounced off the 50-EMAs. The benchmark continued developing well above the moving averages afterwards. The 100 and the 200-EMAs pointed higher while the 50 remained flat. The resistance is at 2280, the support comes in at 2260.
 
MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. RSI indicator was within the overvalued territory close to the neutral area. 
 
Trading recommendations
 
The overall outlook remains bullish, for rise towards 2280 resistance area.
 
12521038.jpg
 
 
 *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman
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#525
ValdisTF

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"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.
 
10.01.2017
 
Euro
 
General overview
 
The Euroland published mixed data on Monday. Industrial Production in Germany came in worse then expected while Trade Balance grew. The EU's Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at the same time. As a result traders stopped buying the euro and turned their attention to the US dollar.
 
Current situation
 
After a brief consolidation during the Asian hours bulls made another attempt to reclaim 1.1050 in the European session. Buyers were struggling with the level the whole morning but failed to regain it. The EUR/USD pair faced further downside pressure and moved towards 1.0500 it in the mid-European session. The spot broke the 200-EMA downwards and headed towards the 100-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 100-EMA and the 200-EMA maintained their bearish slope while the 50-EMA pointed higher. The resistance is at 1.0550, the support comes in at 1.0500.
 
MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI oscillator remained within neutral area. 
 
Trading recommendations
 
We favor a near-term bearish bias. Below the 1.0500 handle the EURUSD pair is likely to target at 1.0450 and 1.0400 support levels.
 
12644484.jpg
 
Pound
 
General overview
 
The pound started the week in the red. The Cable weakened as Hard-Brexit concerns returned to the market. The pound got a minor support from House Prices from Halifax which came in better than expected.
 
Current situation
 
Sellers continued to dominate on Monday. The pound gapped lower at the daily open and immediately extended its weakness towards 1.2200 handle. After touching the level the selling pressure faded and the cable started a consolidation phase. However, the consolidation did not last long, another wave of selling pressure led the GBP/USD pair towards 1.2100. A downward impetus faded a few pips above 1.2200, after touching the mark 1.2123 the spot bounced off and erased a minor part of its fresh losses. According to the 1 hours chart the sterling broke all its moving averages downwards. The 50-EMA turned lower while the 100 and the 200-EMAs were flat in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance lies at 1.2200, the support comes in at 1.2100.
 
MACD entered the negative area. If MACD remains in the negative territory, sellers’ positions will strengthen. The RSI indicator was holding near oversold levels, favoring a new move lower.
 
Trading recommendations
 
A bearish tone prevails in the 4 hours chart. Sellers may reach the level 1.2100 in the short-term, en route 1.2000. We cannot rule out the chance that the pair would try to recover to the 1.2200 – 1.2230 resistance region.
 
12588165.jpg
 
Yen
 
General overview
 
The Japanese markets were closed amid Coming-of-Age Day. The main point of focus shifted to the Fed's representatives (Rosengren and Lockhart) speeches.
 
Current situation
 
Fresh bids around 117.00 helped the US dollar to extend its gains in the Asian session on Monday. However, the buying pressure ran out of steam soon. After reaching the mark 117.50 the pair turned around and returned to 117.00 in the mid-European session. Sellers pushed the spot lower ahead of the NY opening. USD/JPY crossed the 50-EMA downwards and tested the 100-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 100 and the 200-EMAs maintained their bullish slope while the 50-EMA was flat. The resistance is highlighted at 118.00, the support comes in at 117.00.
 
MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram returns the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD enters into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. The RSI left overvalued readings and headed south.
 
Trading recommendations
 
USDJPY needs to regain at least the 118.00 resistance zone to ease the immediate bearish pressure. Otherwise the sellers will move the pair to the 116.00, en route to 115.00. 
 
12590213.jpg
 
USD/CAD
 
General overview
 
The Canadian dollar retreated amid dollar strength and low oil prices.
 
Current situation
 
The bearish trend remained intact on Monday. An attempt to recover met a barrier at 1.3260 which rejected prices downwards. After touching the level the US dollar bounced off the hurdle and headed towards 1.3190 handle. The 4 hours chart showed that the price continued developing well below the moving averages. The 50-EMA crossed the 100-EMA downwards in the same chart. The 50 and the 200-EMAs kept pointing lower while the 100-EMA moved higher. The resistance is highlighted at 1.3260, the support comes in at 1.3190.
 
MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. The RSI indicator was within oversold readings. 
 
Trading recommendations
 
We prefer to stay bearish for now. We expect further moving downwards. The potential sellers’ targets are 1.3190 and 1.3120. Alternatively, the currency pair may reverse its losses if it breaks 1.3260 upwards and will move towards 1.3330.
 
12585093.jpg
 
XAU/USD
 
General overview
 
Gold prices moved lower amid dollar strengthening across the board.
 
Current situation
 
Gold had a good start on Monday. The price pushed away from 1170 and headed towards its immediate resistance at 1180 dollars per ounce in the early trades. However, buying impetus did not have legs and the price remained in a range between the current support and the resistance during the Asian hours. Buyers succeeded to retake the level ahead of the NY opening. After breaking the hurdle the XAU/USD pair advanced towards 1185. The price broke the 50-EMA and headed away from the moving averages in the 1 hour chart. The moving averages maintained their bullish slope in the same chart. The resistance exists at 1190, the support stands at 1180 dollars per ounce.
 
MACD grew which indicates the buyers’ positions strengthening. RSI oscillator remained within overbought readings.
 
Trading recommendations
 
Buyers need to fixate above 1185 before a price can rally towards 1190 and 1200 dollars per ounce.
 
12592261.jpg
 
Brent
 
General overview
 
Oil prices got under pressure as Iran exports grows. Moreover Friday's Baker Hughes report showed a further rise in the number of rigs drilling oil in the US.
 
Current situation
 
The bullish market structure remained in place on Monday. Brent oil is still in an upward channel staying around its lower boundary. However, sellers made an attempt to leave the channel on Monday. Bears led the price to 56.50 dollars per barrel and were struggling with the level the first part of the day. The price broke lower ahead of the NY session opening. The benchmark broke the level and moved towards 55.50. According to the 4 hours chart the price broke the 50-EMA downwards. The benchmark continued developing well above the 100 and the 200-EMAs afterwards. The 50 and the 100-EMAs pointed higher while the 100-EMA was flat in the same chart. The resistance lies at 56.50, the support comes in at 55.50 dollars per barrel.
 
MACD moved to the downside. The RSI indicator left neutral area and moved downwards.
 
Trading recommendations
 
We await a break below 55.50 to trigger another leg lower. In this scenario, sellers may lead prices towards 54.50 and 53.50 dollars per barrel.
 
12593285.jpg
 
DAX
 
General overview
 
The European stocks traded lower amid corporate reports and Germany data.
 
Current situation
 
DAX sharply dropped on Monday. Sellers led the price from 11600 to 11500 during the first part of the day. The price broke the 50-EMA downwards and tested the 100-EMA in the 1 hour chart. The 50-EMA was neutral while the 100 and the 200-EMAs kept pointing higher in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance exists at 11600, the support stands at 11500.
 
MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI left the neutral area favoring a new move lower. 
 
Trading recommendations
 
We recommend going short with the first target - 11500. When the price consolidates below the first target the benchmark may go to the level 11400.
 
12605573.jpg
 
NASDAQ
 
Current situation
 
Nasdaq opened on a positive note on Monday. Traders pushed the price higher and reached the mark 2275 at the begging of the European session. After testing the mark the benchmark sharply dropped to 2270. The price hovered above the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA crossed the 100-EMA upwards. All moving averages kept pointing higher in the same chart. The resistance is at 2280, the support comes in at 2260.
 
The MACD histogram edged lower which is a sell signal. RSI consolidated within positive territory.
 
Trading recommendations
 
To trigger additional downward momentum towards 4940 the price needs to break the level 4980.
 
12614789.jpg
 
 
 *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman
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#526
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11.01.2017
 
Euro
 
General overview
 
The euro strengthened the other day after EU's Investor Confidence upbeat data. However, the dollar managed to reverse some losses on Tuesday amid the recent Fed representatives’ remarks who supported the rate hike actions in 2017. Traders are in wait and see mode now awaiting for Trump’s conference which is set for January 11th. There were no relevant macroeconomic releases scheduled in the EU for Tuesday
 
Current situation
 
The euro momentum began fading after piercing the level 1.0600 during the early hours on Tuesday. Having posted the daily high at 1.0626 the EUR/USD pair retreated and returned below 1.0600 post-European session open. Sellers kept pushing the single European currency downwards ahead of the NY opening. According to the 4 hours chart the price continued developing well above the 200-EMA which acted as a support for the currency pair. The 100 and the 200-EMAs were flat while the 50-EMA kept pointing higher. The resistance is at 1.0600, the support comes in at 1.0550.
 
The technical indicators aim modestly lower within positive territory. MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI oscillator stayed within undervalued territory. 
 
Trading recommendations
 
We expect to see renewed bearish pressure in the short-term. A break below 1.0550 may suggest further weakness of the EURUSD pair. The level 1.0500 may become the next bearish target.
 
12647427.jpg
 
Pound
 
General overview
 
The pound stabilized on Tuesday after Theresa May’s recent remarks. Moreover, hard-Brexit concerns continue weighing on the investors’ sentiment. Investors’ attention now turns to Manufacturing Production and Industrial Production releases.
 
Current situation
 
Bears kept the market in control tightening their grip. After a brief consolidation in the Asian session the pound extended its weakness on Tuesday. Sellers pushed the pair lower and reached 1.2100 with London opening. The spot was in a consolidation phase ahead of the NY session opening. The price stays well below the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages maintained their bearish slope. The resistance lies at 1.2200, the support comes in at 1.2100.
 
The technical indicators turned lower. The MACD histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ strength. The RSI indicator remained within oversold levels.
 
Trading recommendations
 
The pound is short term oversold and may reverse some losses. We do not rule out a minor recovery to 1.2200 which is a good chance to open short positions. Despite the oversold readings we do not see any signs the pair may change its current course any time soon. A move below 1.2100 will return sellers in the driver’s seat pushing the GBP/USD pair to 1.2000.
 
12641283.jpg
 
Yen
 
General overview
 
Consumer Confidence in Japan coincided with the forecast. The yen ignored the report and weakened versus the dollar before Trump's conference.
 
Current situation
 
Sellers managed to lead the price lower in the early trades on Tuesday. The price touched the level 115.00 and immediately bounced off it trading with mild bearish bias afterwards. The US dollar spent the first part of the day at 116.00. The ongoing recovery could be attributed to some profit taking from bears amid risk aversion. The price bounced off the 200-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 200-EMA pointed higher while the 50 and the 100-EMAs were flat. The resistance is highlighted at 116.00, the support comes in at 115.00.
 
The technical indicators are pointing lower and suggest further easing. The MACD histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ strength. The RSI was within oversold readings close to the neutral territory.
 
Trading recommendations
 
The technical picture presents a bullish tone. A break above 116.00 suggests further growth towards 117.00. Alternatively, the dollar's inability to recover today could cause a drop towards the 114.00 handle.
 
12643331.jpg
 
AUD/USD
 
General overview
 
The Australian dollar weakened on Tuesday amid downbeat Retail Sales release. Moreover, disappointing releases of Chinese CPI weighed on the Aussie.
 
Current situation
 
An attempt to advance beyond 0.7350 failed on Tuesday. Buyers climbed up to 0.7385 where the pair came across fresh offers and dropped to 0.7350. After testing the level sellers continued battling with it trying to push the price lower. The 4 hours chart showed that the price tested the 200-EMA in the early trades. The 200-EMA slowed down bulls’ advance being a tough nut to crack acting as a resistance for the spot. The 100 and the 200-EMAs were neutral while the 50-EMA kept pointing higher in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is highlighted at 0.7400, the support comes in at 0.7350.
 
MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. The RSI indicator consolidated within undervalued readings. 
 
Trading recommendations
 
The bearish trend remained intact. If the price fixates below the support 0.7350, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential sellers’ targets are 0.7300 and 0.7250.
 
12588032.jpg
 
XAU/USD
 
General overview
 
Gold prices hit 6-week highs amid broad base dollar retracement due to growing uncertainty over the Fed rate hike in 2017. The first Trump’s conference in 2017 attracts investors’ attention now.
 
Current situation
 
Gold extended its near-term bullish momentum and rose to its highest level since early December on Tuesday. Buyers led the price from 1180 to 1187 dollars per ounce where the advance lost upward momentum. A light selling interest weighed on the pair pushing it to 1182. The price hovered above the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA kept pointing higher and crossed the 200-EMA upwards. The 100 and the 200-EMAs were neutral. The resistance exists at 1190, the support stands at 1180 dollars per ounce.
 
MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI indicator remained within undervalued territory.
 
Trading recommendations
We hold the view that gold prices will drop below the 1180 handle. The next level to focus on is 1170 dollars per ounce.
 
12589056.jpg
 
Brent
 
General overview
 
Oil prices recovered some ground on Tuesday on hopes that OPEC and non-OPEC members will cut oil output. The ongoing dollar weakness also aids the recovery in the black gold. Meanwhile investors await for API stockpiles data.
 
Current situation
 
Brent seems to have found a solid support at 54.50 dollars per barrel. The benchmark bounced off the level after testing it. Oil prices managed to reverse a minor portion of their losses overnight. Brent recovered to 55.50 where it spent the whole European session. The 4 hours chart showed that the price broke the 50 and the 100 EMAs downwards. The 50 and the 100-EMAs were flat while the 200-EMA pointed higher. The resistance lies at 55.50, the support comes in at 54.50 dollars per barrel.
 
MACD entered the negative area. If MACD remains within the negative readings, sellers’ positions will strengthen. The RSI indicator was within the oversold territory.
 
Trading recommendations
 
Now bears keep focus at 54.50 dollars per barrel. We think that further weakening to 53.50 is not ruled out.
 
12585984.jpg
 
DAX
 
General overview
 
European stocks slightly edged higher amid corporate earnings reports and commodity currencies strengthening. The recovery was limited amid concerns over Italian banks.
 
Current situation
DAX extended its consolidative pattern on Tuesday trading comfortably between 11600 and 11500, being unable to set short-term direction. Buyers moved the price to the upper boundary of the range in the Asian session. After touching the level the benchmark moved back and stopped around 11550 post-European open. The price hovered above the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The price tested the 50-EMA and continued developing well above the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages maintained their bullish slope in the same chart. The resistance exists at 11600, the support stands at 11500.
 
The MACD histogram decreased which is a sell signal. RSI was within the neutral area and headed upwards. 
 
Trading recommendations
 
We expect the index to remain in the current range. A clear break of either side is needed to signal fresh direction.
 
12595200.jpg
 
S&P500
 
General overview
 
US stocks were neutral at open amid oil prices flat.
 
Current situation
 
Sellers met a barrier at 2260 which rejected the price upwards. The benchmark was able to reverse a minor portion of yesterday’s losses and grew up to 2265 where the upward momentum lost its legs in the mid-European session. The price broke the 100-EMA upwards in the 1 hour chart. The 50 and 200-EMAs were flat while the 100-EMA pointed higher in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is at 2280, the support comes in at 2260.
 
MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI was within the neutral area.
 
Trading recommendations
 
The price maintained its bullish tone in the 4 hours chart. A recovery above the 2280 level will favor an advance up to the 2300 region.
 
12594176.jpg
 
 
 *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman
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#527
ValdisTF

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"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.
 
12.01.2017
 
Euro
 
General overview
 
The euro turned bearish on yesterday's trades. The EU and US calendars were light. All investors’ attention focused on upcoming US President Donald Trump's speech.
 
Current situation
 
The euro continued moving lower yesterday. Traders pushed the price to 1.0550 where EUR/USD developed a short-term consolidation in the early trades. The pair ran through fresh offers on European open and accelerated its decline afterwards. Sellers broke below 1.0550 and dragged the single European currency to 1.0500. The price broke the 200-EMA downwards and tested the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 100 and the 200-EMAs remained flat while the 50-EMA kept moving higher. The resistance is at 1.0550, the support comes in at 1.0500.
 
MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI oscillator left undervalued territory and headed south. 
 
Trading recommendations
 
We believe the selling interest in the short term will remain intact. A breakout of 1.0500 would aim for next sellers’ target at 1.0450 and 1.0400.
 
12593029.jpg
 
Pound
 
General overview
 
The pound lost further ground on Wednesday. Concerns of 'hard Brexit' continued attracting fresh selling pressure around the Cable. Moreover, the mixed UK data failed to provide any sufficient support for the British pound: Industrial and Manufacturing Production came in positive while Trade Balance and Goods Trade Balance came in the red. Investors were also focused on BOE Governor Mark Carney's testimony before the Parliament during the US session.
 
Current situation
 
The Cable failed to sustain the Asian recovery which stalled around 1.2200. After touching the level the price bounced off it and weakened to 1.2100 after London's opening. Having touched the level the GBP/USD pair rolled back reversing some of its losses. The spot bounced downwards off the 50-EMA in the 1 hour chart. The price continued developing well below the moving averages afterwards. The 200-EMA was neutral while the 50 and the 100-EMAs pointed lower in the same chart. The resistance lies at 1.2200, the support comes in at 1.2100.
 
The MACD histogram returned into the negative area, that indicates sellers’ growing strength. The RSI indicator was within oversold readings.
 
Trading recommendations
 
The price maintained its bearish tone in the 4 hours chart. We would keep selling the Cable if the price drops below 1.2100, en route to 1.2000.
 
12605317.jpg
 
Yen
 
General overview
 
The dollar was able to reverse a minor portion of its recent losses awaiting for the Donald Trump's first news conference since the election.
 
Current situation
 
The pair traded sideways staying contained to a range of 50 pips or less during the Asian session on Wednesday. Buyers were able to regain more room in the early European trades. The spot climbed up to 116.43 where the upward momentum lost its legs. The price continued hovering above the 200-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 100-EMA limited the upside for the spot. The 200-EMA kept pointing higher while the 50 and the 100 EMAs moved lower in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is highlighted at 117.00, the support comes in at 116.00.
 
MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. The RSI left oversold readings and headed north.
 
Trading recommendations
 
A close above 117.00 will generate fresh bullish signal for further advance, which could extend to the 118.00 hurdle. Conversely, a move below 115.00 would revive bearishness towards 114.00.
 
12607365.jpg
 
NZD/USD
 
General overview
 
The NZD/USD edged lower amid a stronger dollar. Meanwhile, oil prices weakening weigh on commodity currencies – like the kiwi.
 
Current situation
 
The NZD/USD pair turned positive on Wednesday. An overnight rebound lifted the kiwi out of the red. The New Zealand dollar broke 0.7000 in the Asian session and headed towards 0.7050 in European trades. However, the upward momentum faded soon. After posting a daily high at 0.7020 the NZD returned to 0.7000 handle. The price was between the 50 and the 200-EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA headed north crossing the 100-EMA upwards. The 100 and the 200-EMAs were flat in the same chart. The resistance is highlighted at 0.7000, the support comes in at 0.6950.
 
MACD traded to the downside. The RSI indicator left the overvalued readings and entered the neutral area. 
 
Trading recommendations
 
We expect the NZDUSD pair to return to the support 0.6950 in the short-term. In this scenario the spot may continue its decline towards 0.6900.
 
12603269.jpg
 
XAU/USD
 
General overview
 
Gold stayed bullish heading into Trump’s new conference scheduled later on the day.
 
Current situation
 
Gold maintained its bid tone trading in the green zone on Wednesday. The upmove, however, lacked momentum around 1190 where the precious metal faced sellers' resistance. The 4 hours chart showed that the price continued developing well above the moving averages. The 50 and the 100-EMAs pointed higher while the 200-EMA remained flat. The resistance exists at 1190, the support stands at 1180 dollars per ounce.
 
MACD remained at the same level which confirmed the strength of buyers. RSI indicator consolidated within undervalued territory.
 
Trading recommendations
 
We consider a possible correction towards the support 1180. Should the metal breaks the level down the pair may extend its losses towards 1170 dollars per ounce.
 
12614533.jpg
 
Brent
 
General overview
 
Oil prices managed to reverse a minor portion of their losses in the early trades on Wednesday. However, the recovery was limited due to doubts over OPEC deal non-compliance.
 
Current situation
 
Oil prices found strong support at the level of 53.50 dollars per barrel. Being unable to break the handle the benchmark rolled back. The ongoing recovery could be attributed to some profit taking from bears following Tuesday's sharp sell-off. Brent oil prices were calm during the Asian session and accelerated their growth in the European one. The price was struggling with the 200-EMA which provided a solid support for the Brent in the 4 hours chart. The 100 was neutral, the 200-EMAs moved upwards while the 50-EMA headed south in the same chart. The resistance lies at 54.50, the support comes in at 53.50 dollars per barrel.
 
The MACD histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ strength. The RSI indicator remained within the oversold territory.
 
Trading recommendations
 
We believe the market is overbought and vulnerable to a further downward correction. Brent may suffer more losses if the benchmark breaks below 53.50. Sellers may drag the price towards 52.50 dollars per barrel.
 
12611461.jpg
 
DAX
 
General overview
 
European financial stocks edged higher despite cautious sentiment in the market amid Donald Trump's press-conference.
 
Current situation
 
Traders kept the price in a near-term directionless mode in the Asian session Wednesday. DAX extended its consolidative pattern staying in the familiar range between 11600 and 11500 levels. The index started the day from the upper limit of the range. Staying around 11600 in the Asian session the benchmark sharply dropped to 11520 at the start of the European session. After touching the level 11500 the benchmark reversed its direction and jumped back to the 11600 hurdle. The price bounced off the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages pointed higher in the same chart. The resistance exists at 11600, the support stands at 11500.
 
MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram returns the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD enters into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. RSI left the neutral area and headed north. 
 
Trading recommendations
 
Any move below the immediate support would increase chances of testing the 11500 mark, en route to 11400. Alternatively, a bullish momentum is likely to be regained if the benchmark breaks above 11600.
 
12622725.jpg
 
NASDAQ
 
General overview
 
Wall Street futures were flat at the open on Wednesday as investors looked forward to Trump’s first press conference since his election victory later in the day. Traders did not hurry to build up fresh positions preferring wait and see mode.
 
Current situation
 
After posting fresh multi months highs at 5044 the index rolled back and returned to 5020 where buyers took a breath consolidating their recent gains. Another attempt to grow took place in the early trades on Wednesday. Buyers managed to reverse their early losses and moved the benchmark to 5030. According to the 4 hours chart the price continued developing well above the moving averages. The moving averages kept pointing higher in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is at 5060, the support comes in at 5020.
 
MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. RSI consolidated within the positive area.
 
Trading recommendations
 
We prefer to stay bearish for now. If we see a close below 5020 we will sell. Our next level to focus on is 4980.
 
12618629.jpg
 
 *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman
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#528
ValdisTF

ValdisTF

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"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.
 
13.01.2017
Euro
 
General overview
 
The euro slowed down with its growth despite the positive EU data. Consumer Price index met traders' expectations in France while the EU's Industrial Production came in better than expected.
 
Current situation
 
The euro extended its near-term upward trajectory in the early trades on Thursday. The single European currency broke 1.0600 during the Asian night trade and advanced towards 1.0650 afterwards. The pair pierced the 1.0650 hurdle post-European open and immediately returned below the broken level. EUR/USD rally seems to have ran out of steam as we witnessed the price inability to reclaim 1.0650 in the late European session. The spot hovered above the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 200-EMA was neutral while the 50 and the 100-EMAS pointed higher in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is at 1.0650, the support comes in at 1.0600.
 
The MACD histogram grew which indicates buyers’ strength. RSI oscillator left neutral territory and headed north. 
 
Trading recommendations
 
Even though the technical picture presents a bullish tone we expect a correction based on profit taking which may start as soon as the price drops below the 1.0600 level. In this case the spot may reach 1.0550. A move below 1.0550 will neutralize the current buying sentiment.
 
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Pound
 
General overview
 
There were no major economic releases in the UK on Thursday. Donald Trump failed to give investors details on his future economic policy. The traders' disappointment triggered a sharp dollar sell-off which helped the pound to reverse some ground. Later in the day we expect to hear some Fed's representatives including J.Yellen.
 
Current situation
 
The pound kept its upbeat tone unchanged vs. its US peer on Thursday. The Cable broke 1.2200 during the early hours and extended its bullishness afterwards. Buyers kept pushing the pair upwards and tested the resistance 1.2300 at the beginning of the European session. After touching the level the spot rolled back gathering steam for another leg higher. The short term upward momentum, however, seems to be fading as the Cable kept losing its upward strength during the late European hours. The price broke the 50-EMA upwards and pierced the 100-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages maintained bearish slope in the same chart. The resistance lies at 1.2300, the support comes in at 1.2200.
 
MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. The RSI indicator left the neutral area and headed upwards.
 
Trading recommendations
 
Despite the recent rally the pair remained in a descending channel. If the spot fails to retake 1.2300 the pound may fall to 1.2200 on profit-taking. A close above 1.2300 may extend the current bullishness towards 1.2400.
 
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Yen
 
General overview
 
The yen strengthened after Trump's press-conference where the President-elect Donald Trump failed to provide investors with enough details regarding his future economic plans. Japanese Current Account came in better than expected supporting the national currency.
 
Current situation
 
The US dollar extended its sell off on Thursday. A fresh bout of selling pressure drove the USD/JPY pair below 115.00 at the open on Thursday. The US dollar kept losing its value afterwards and reached the 114.00 handle during European morning trade. Sellers failed to regain the level and continued struggling with the handle ahead of the NY session opening, According to the 4 hours chart the price continued staying below the moving averages which started turning downwards. The resistance is highlighted at 115.00, the support comes in at 114.00.
 
The MACD histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ strength. The RSI remained within oversold readings favoring a new move downwards.
 
Trading recommendations
 
Inability to break below 114.00 may cause some profit-taking towards 115.00. If the pressure persists the next probable sellers target will become the level 113.00.
 
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USD/CAD
 
General overview
 
The US dollar retracement after the president-elect Donald Trump helped the Canadian dollar to extend its gains. Moreover, the CAD received additional support from the recovery in crude oil prices. We expect to see fresh figures over New Housing Price later the day.
 
Current situation
 
Bears had the ball and kept pushing the pair lower on Thursday. The US dollar had a negative start to the day. The major found fresh offers around 1.3190 at the daily open and extended its bearishness afterwards. The USD/CAD pair broke 1.3120 at the early European trades and kept trending towards 1.3050 which it touched in the mid-European session. The downward move lost its momentum after touching the handle and the spot stayed around it till the North American session opening. The currency pair continued developing well below the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA crossed the 100 and the 200 EMAs downwards. The moving averages maintained their bearish slope in the same chart. The resistance is highlighted at 1.3120, the support comes in at 1.3050.
 
The MACD histogram decreased which is a sell signal. The RSI indicator stayed within the negative territory and moved downwards. 
 
Trading recommendations
 
If the USD/CAD fails to regain 1.3050 buyers may reverse some of their losses and push the pair back to 1.3120. A break below 1.3050 will revive bearishness towards 1.2980.
 
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XAU/USD
 
General overview
 
Unclear Donald Trump's plans regarding his future economic/fiscal policies boosted gold prices towards 7-week highs.
 
Current situation
 
The gold held a bullish tone on Thursday. Traders pushed the metal higher and broke 1200 in the early European trades. The pair accelerated its rally after the hurdle break and advanced towards 1210 dollars per ounce afterwards. The gold spot hovered above the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA headed north crossing the 200-EMA upwards. The 200-EMA stayed flat while the 100-EMA pointed higher. The resistance exists at 1210, the support stands at 1200 dollars per ounce.
 
MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. RSI indicator remained within undervalued territory favoring a new move higher.
 
Trading recommendations
 
Daily studies turned bullish and support further upside. A break above 1210 may open the way towards 1220. A downtrend will start as soon, as gold prices drop below the support level 1180 dollars per ounce. We do not exclude some profit-taking after the recent rally.
 
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Brent
 
General overview
 
Oil prices received support from the US dollar retracement. However, its growth is limited amid crude inventories growth.
 
Current situation
 
Oil prices maintained their bid tone on Thursday. The 55.50 hurdle stopped buyers for a while. The benchmark rolled back after testing the level in the Asian session and made another attempt to reclaim the level during the European hours. Buyers succeeded to break higher in the mid-European session. The benchmark extended its gains towards 56.50 ahead of the NA session opening. The 4 hours chart showed that the price tested the 50 and 100 EMAs in the mid-European trades. The 100 and the 200-EMAs pointed higher while the 50-EMA was neutral. The resistance lies at 56.50, the support comes in at 56.50 dollars per barrel.
 
MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. The RSI indicator moved upwards.
 
Trading recommendations
 
The bullish trend remained intact. A break above 56.50 risks a growth towards the resistance at 57.50 dollars per barrel. A daily close below 55.50 will increase risks of a downside rejection.
 
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DAX
 
General overview
 
European stocks moved lower following Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare sector decrease after Donald Trump’s press-conference where he took on drug prices.
 
Current situation
 
DAX gapped lower at the daily open and lost its strength further afterwards. Sellers pushed the price below 11600 during the early European hours on Thursday. However, all sellers’ attempts to extend their gains failed and the benchmark remained around 11600 ahead of the NY session opening. The price tested the 50 and the 100 EMAs in the 1 hour chart. The moving averages kept pointing higher in the same chart. The resistance exists at 11600, the support stands at 11500.
 
MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI remained within the neutral area. 
 
Trading recommendations
 
The bullish scenario prevailed on Thursday. Once we break above 11600, we think that the 11700 level will be next.
 
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SPX500
 
Current situation
 
The index suffered a short lived downward movement on Thursday. Traders led the price lower and touched the level 2260 in early European trades. The benchmark retracement was triggered by some profit taking after Wednesday's rally. The price broke the 50 and the 100-EMAs downwards and bounced off the 200-EMA in the 1 hour chat. The moving averages were neutral in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is at 2280, the support comes in at 2260.
 
MACD indicator was at the centerline. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market if the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. RSI was within the neutral territory.
 
Trading recommendations
 
We believe the index will remain neutral tending to move lower. The possible sellers' targets are the marks 2260 and 2254. A bounce off 2260 may extend the current bullishness towards 2280.
 
 
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 *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman
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#529
ValdisTF

ValdisTF

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"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.
 
16.01.2017
 
Euro
 
General overview
 
The mixed US data supported the dollar on Friday. Retail Sales disappointed investors while Producer Price Index came in better than expected. The euro weakened despite upbeat Wholesale Price Index in Germany and Consumer Price Index in Spain.
 
Current situation
 
The euro made an attempt to return its upward bias on Friday. The pair failed to sustain the Asian pull back as sellers met a barrier at 1.0600 which rejected the spot upwards. The EUR/USD pair grew and touched 1.0650 in the mid-European session. The single European currency had reversed all its losses by the NY session opening. The price continued developing well above the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA touched the 200-EMA. The 50 and the 100-EMAs kept pointing higher while the 200-EMA remained neutral in the same chart. The resistance is at 1.0650, the support comes in at 1.0600.
 
The MACD histogram grew which is a buy signal. RSI oscillator was within overvalued territory.
 
Trading recommendations
 
Inability to break above 1.0650 may return selling interest to markets. Once we break below 1.0600, we think that the 1.0550 and 1.0500 levels will be next. In order to recover EUR/USD needs to rise back and hold above 1.0650.
 
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Pound
 
General overview
 
The US dollar strengthened on the back of upbeat Producer Price Index. Meanwhile, the Cable had to retreat amid a stronger dollar and renewed concerns over a hard Brexit.
 
Current situation
 
The recent pull back lost its strength above 1.2100 in the early trades on Friday. The pound ran through fresh bids post London’s opening and sharply turned around. Buyers led the price upwards and touched the level 1.2200 in the mid-European session. After touching the level the upward momentum faded, the pound sharply dropped and extended its weakness to 1.2118. The price bounced off the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The moving average limited its growth acting as a solid resistance. All moving averages maintained their bearish slope in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance lies at 1.2200, the support comes in at 1.2100.
 
MACD traded to the downside. RSI oscillator remained within the neutral area.
 
Trading recommendations
 
The GBPUSD pair could gain momentum, if it recovers above the 1.2200 area. A break above the hurdle will maintain bulls in the driver's seat towards the level 1.2300. Conversely, a move below 1.2100 will signal the return of sellers who may drag the price to 1.2000.
 
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Yen
 
General overview
 
The US dollar tried to reverse its recent losses vs. the yen. Meanwhile, markets ignored Chinese data: Trade Balance, Exports and Imports.
 
Current situation
 
The US dollar temporally retuned to its upward trajectory after the Asian decline on Friday. Buyers managed to maintain their bid tone and broke 115.00 ahead of the NY session opening. However, the upmove soon lost momentum and the USD/JPY pair returned below 115.00 in the NA session. Traders were driving the price towards 114.00 the second part of the North American session. The pair bounced off the 100-EMA and tested the 50-EMA in the 1 hour chart. The moving averages headed lower in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is highlighted at 115.00, the support comes in at 114.00.
 
MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. The RSI remained within oversold readings close to the neutral territory.
 
Trading recommendations
 
The price maintained its bearish tone in the 4 hours chart. As the most probable scenario, we consider further moving downwards towards the levels 114.00 and 113.00 unless buyers manage to consolidate above 116.00.
 
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AUD/USD
 
General overview
 
The US dollar grew vs. its Australian peer on the back of the US data when upbeat Producer Price Index overwhelmed negative Retail Sales report.
 
Current situation
 
The dollar retracement assisted to the Aussie recovery in the early trades on Friday. After posting the weekly high at 0.7516 the pair slightly rolled back and returned to the nearest hurdle at 0.7500 on Thursday. The spot spent the night and morning sessions on Friday around the level struggling to move higher. A fresh selling interest drove prices to 0.7450 in the NY session. Sellers lost their strength after testing the level 0.7450 which rejected the spot to 0.7500. According to the 4 hours chart the price hovered above the moving averages. The 50-EMA crossed the 200-EMA upwards. The 50 and the 100-EMAs pointed higher while the 200-EMA was flat. The resistance is highlighted at 0.7500, the support comes in at 0.7450.
 
MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. The RSI indicator was within the positive territory. 
 
Trading recommendations
 
We believe that after a close above the resistance at 0.7500 the spot AUD/USD may extend its growth to 0.7550. On the other hand, a sharp breakout below 0.7450 could spark a further incline towards 0.7400 in the coming sessions.
 
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XAU/USD
 
General overview
 
Gold maintained its bid tone on Friday as the uncertainties surrounding Trump’s future policies supported the demand for the precious metal.
 
Current situation
 
The gold extended its upward momentum on Friday. A bout of fresh buying interest pushed the spot upwards. The price pushed away from 1190 at the beginning of the European session and reached 1200 dollars per ounce. The 1 hour chart showed that the price tested the 50-EMA. The moving averages maintained their bullish slope in the same chart. The resistance exists at 1200, the support stands at 1190 dollars per ounce.
 
MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. RSI consolidated within positive territory.
 
Trading recommendations
 
We prefer to stay bullish for now. Our next short-term objective for the pair is 1200, after which we may see the pair extending its rise towards the 1210. However, gold is overbought and needs some technical correction. We believe the price may decline to 1180 on profit-taking.
 
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Brent
 
General overview
 
Oil prices were unmoved on Friday as investors kept wondering whether the OPEC and non-OPEC members will abide the recent output cut agreement reached in 2016.
 
Current situation
 
After reaching 56.50 dollars per barrel Brent rolled back to 55.50. The benchmark started Friday in a consolidation. Brent extended its sideways trades during the European session. The “black gold” was range-bound-to lower during the day. The price broke the 50 and the 100-EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA crossed the 100-EMA downwards. The 50 and the 100-EMA were neutral while the 200-EMA headed higher. The resistance lies at 56.50, the support comes in at 55.50 dollars per barrel.
 
MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram returns the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD enters into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. The RSI left the positive area and headed downwards.
 
Trading recommendations
 
The bearish sentiment remained intact on Friday. A move below 55.50 dollars per barrel suggests further weakness of the oil prices. After breaking 54.50 the level 53.50 will come to the radar.
 
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DAX
 
General overview
 
European markets sentiment improved on Friday after the recent remarks by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump. Financial stocks and automobile sector were broadly higher while mining stocks moved lower.
 
Current situation
 
The index traded in its familiar range on Friday. The price was trading between 11600 and 11500 levels. Traders were unable to choose direction and were holding the benchmark in the range during the day. The moving averages maintained their bearish slope in the 4 hours timeframe. The resistance exists at 11600, the support stands at 11500.
 
MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram returns the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD enters into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. RSI remained within the neutral area.  
 
Trading recommendations
 
The price is unable to climb above 11600. Sellers might force DAX to resume its downward trajectory towards 11500.
 
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NASDAQ
 
General overview
 
Wall Street traded higher on Friday amid the upbeat U.S. quarterly reports.
 
Current situation
 
The index was flat the first part of the day. The benchmark hovered above 5020 handle in a narrow range of 50 pips or less. NASDAQ turned higher in the North American session. The price rallied to 5060 and tested the level post-NY session opening. The index broke the 50 and the 100-EMAs upwards in the 1 hour chat. The benchmark continued developing well above its moving averages afterwards. All moving averages maintained their bullish slope in the same chart. The resistance is at 5060, the support comes in at 5020.
 
MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. RSI consolidated within positive territory.
 
Trading recommendations
 
If bears return control the next intraday supports and probable bearish target is 5020. Conversely, a daily close above 5060 will open the way towards 5080.
 
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 *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman
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#530
ValdisTF

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"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.
 
17.01.2017
 
Euro
 
General overview
 
The euro got a minor support after the EU's trade Balance. Today we expect to see Economic Sentiment for January from ZEW which is expected to show upbeat figures.
 
Current situation
 
The euro weakened on Monday. After the gap downwards the pair kept moving in the red. Sellers broke the level 1.0600 ahead of the European opening. After breaking the level sellers extended their gains pushing the spot towards 1.0550. However, EUR/USD's momentum remained positive despite the ongoing decline. The euro stayed above the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA crossed the 200-EMA upwards. The 50 and the 100-EMAs headed north while the 200-EMA remained flat in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is at 1.0600, the support comes in at 1.0550.
 
MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI oscillator left the overvalued territory and moved south.
 
Trading recommendations
 
Sellers are likely to extend their gains in the short-term. The first sellers’ target is 1.0550. A close below the handle will generate fresh selling pressure towards 1.0500.
 
12675557.jpg
 
Pound
 
General overview
 
The Pound has hit its lowest level for more than three months on Monday. The pound fell ahead of Theresa May’s speech tomorrow. Investors expect to hear from the PM how the UK's government plans to leave the EU.
 
Current situation
 
The pound gapped lower at the daily open on Monday. The price jumped from 1.2184 to 1.1197, however, it was able to reverse a minor portion of its losses afterwards. Buyers pushed the Cable higher and almost reached 1.2100 hurdle at the beginning of the European trades. Bulls failed to retake the level and stepped back. The sterling dropped below the moving averaged and stayed there in the 4 hours chart. All moving averages headed lower in the same chart. The resistance lies at 1.2100, the support comes in at 1.2000.
 
The MACD histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ strength. RSI stayed within the negative area.
 
Trading recommendations
 
A bearish tone prevails in the 4 hours chart. The GBP/USD pair now seems to be heading towards its immediate support near 1.2000. After the level break sellers may aim at 1.1900.
 
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Yen
 
Current situation
 
The US dollar gapped lower at the weekly open and extended its losses afterwards. Sellers tested the level 114.00 and immediately bounced off the handle. The pair spent the European trades above 114.00 staying in a narrow range. According to the 4 hours chart the price continued developing well below the moving averages. The 50-EMA crossed the 200-EMA downwards. The 50 and the 200-EMAs kept heading lower while the 200-EMA was flat. The resistance is highlighted at 115.00, the support comes in at 114.00.
 
MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. The RSI remained within oversold readings.
 
Trading recommendations
 
USD/JPY is having difficulties to go any lower. All eyes are right now at the resistance level 115.00. A cut through here will turn attention to the 116.00 level.
 
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NZD/USD
 
Current situation
 
The kiwi returned to the negative territory on Monday. The New Zealand dollar gapped lower at the daily open. However, buyers managed to erase all losses and even showed fresh gains moving the price to 0.7150. After touching the resistance bulls lost their upward momentum and had to retreat. Sellers seized control and pushed the spot below 0.7100. After breaking the handle the kiwi continued losing its value heading towards 0.7050. The price hovered above the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50 and the 100-EMAs headed upwards while the 200-EMA was neutral in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is highlighted at 0.7150, the support comes in at 0.7050.
 
MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. The RSI indicator headed downwards. 
 
Trading recommendations
 
We prefer to stay bearish for now. We think that the NZD/USD will reach the 0.7050 level first. The spot may extend its decline afterwards aiming at 0.7000.
 
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XAU/USD
 
Current situation
 
Gold extended its vertical rise on Monday. Buyers were stronger and moved the price higher. They broke the resistance 1200 dollars per ounce and almost reached 1210. The pair lost its strength a few pips below the level and rolled back to 1200 in the European session. The price continued developing well above the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 100-EMA crossed the 200-EMA upwards. The 50 and the 100-EMAs pointed higher while the 200-EMA was flat. The resistance exists at 1210, the support stands at 1200 dollars per ounce.
 
MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. RSI remained within overvalued readings.
 
Trading recommendations
 
A close below the 1200 level would generate negative signal and risk further easing. We expect a further advance towards 1190 dollars per ounce afterwards.
 
12708325.jpg
 
Brent
 
Current situation
 
Brent presented a modest bearish tone on Monday. After a brief consolidation during the Asian hours bears seized the ball and pushed the price below 55.50 dollars per barrel in the European session. After breaking the level sellers kept moving oil prices towards 54.50. The 4 hours chart showed that the price broke the 50 and 100 EMAs during the European hours. The 50-EMA crossed the 100-EMA downwards. The 200 and the 100-EMAs headed higher while the 50-EMA was flat. The resistance lies at 55.50, the support comes in at 54.50 dollars per barrel.
 
MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram returns the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD enters into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. The RSI was within the neutral area.
 
Trading recommendations
 
The bearish scenario prevailed on Monday. Sellers may extend their bearishness if they fixate below 55.50 dollars per barrel. After a daily close below the level we could see Brent extending down to the 53.50 region during the next days.
 
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DAX
 
Current situation
 
DAX gapped lower at the daily open on Monday. The index humped from 11606 to 11562 and traded mixed afterwards. The benchmark remained in a familiar range tending to move lower. The price broke the 200-EMA in the 1 hour chart in the European session. The 200-EMA headed higher while the 50 and the 100-EMA were flat in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance exists at 11600, the support stands at 11500.
 
MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram returns the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD enters into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. RSI was within the neutral territory.  
 
Trading recommendations
 
We expect a downtrend movement after the price break 11500. The next probable bearish target is 11400.
 
12655074.jpg
 
S&P500
 
Current situation
 
The index edged lower on Monday. Sellers pushed the price from 2273 to 2264 during the first half of the day. The price tested the 50 EMA in the 4 hours chat. The 50 and the 200-EMAs pointed higher while the 200-EMA was flat in the same chart. The resistance is at 2280, the support comes in at 2260.
 
MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram returns the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD enters into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. RSI left the undervalued readings and entered the neutral area.
 
Trading recommendations
 
We believe that the downtrend will start as soon, as the price drops below the support level 2260. The benchmark may slow down to the 2240 area afterwards.
 
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 *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman
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#531
ValdisTF

ValdisTF

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"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.
 
18.01.2017
 
Euro
 
General overview
 
Economic Sentiment in Germany for January disappointed investors. The market focused on Consumer Price Index in Germany and the EU.
 
Current situation
 
We believe that this is essentially a “buy only” market at the moment. The pair remained in a near term upward channel on Tuesday. Bulls kept control and pushed the price higher in the Asian session. The euro rallied and broke 1.0650 in the mid-Asian session. The single European currency extended its gains afterwards and reached 1.0700 in the mid European session. According to the 1 hour chart the price bounced off the 100-EMA and crossed the 50-EMA upwards. The price stayed above the moving averages which maintained their bullish slope in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is at 1.0700, the support comes in at 1.0650.
 
The MACD histogram grew which indicates buyers’ strength. RSI oscillator left the neutral area and returned to the positive territory. 
 
Trading recommendations
 
The technical picture presents a bullish tone. The EURUSD pair now seems to be heading towards its immediate resistance near 1.0700. After the hurdle break the next level to focus on is 1.0750. We also do not exclude a roll back on profit taking after Tuesday’s rally. Sellers may erase some losses if manage to lead the spot below 1.0650, en route to 1.0600.
 
12649624.jpg
 
Pound
 
General overview
 
All eyes are on Unemployment Rate and Average Earnings where we expect green figures.
 
Current situation
 
Bulls were gradually gaining more overall control on Tuesday. A sharp short-term rally helped the Cable to close Monday's gap. The pound broke 1.2100 in the Asian session and touched 1.2200 ahead of the European session opening. The sterling momentum began to fade after testing the level. The price rolled back, but remained around 1.2200. The price grew and tested the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The spot continued developing well below its moving averages which kept heading lower in the same chart. The resistance lies at 1.2200, the support comes in at 1.2100.
 
MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI remained within the neutral area.
 
Trading recommendations
 
We may see renewed bullish pressure if the GBP/USD pair closes above 1.2200. A daily close above 1.2200 would risk a further rise of the pair towards 1.2300. If the hurdle holds the spot may return to red and refresh lows at 1.2000.
 
12651672.jpg
 
Yen
 
General overview
 
The dollar edged lower on expectations of Trump’s inauguration in Friday. Moreover, Industrial Production in Japan came in a line with expectations thus supporting the national currency.
 
Current situation
 
The USD/JPY pair extended its bearishness on Tuesday. The US dollar continued to trade in negative ground. Sellers broke below 114.00 during the early Asian hours. The spot kept losing its value afterwards and reached 113.00 in the mid-European session. Bears managed to reclaim the level ahead of the NY session opening. The price remained below the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50 and the 100-EMAs maintained their bearish slope while the 200-EMA remained neutral. The resistance is highlighted at 113.00, the support comes in at 112.00.
 
The MACD histogram decreased which is a sell signal. The RSI stayed within oversold readings and headed south.
 
Trading recommendations
 
A bearish tone prevailed in the 4 hours chart. To trigger additional downward momentum towards 112.00 the price needs to consolidate below the level 113.00. A failure to retake 113.00 may cause some profit-taking. Buyers may return the price to 114.00.
 
12663960.jpg
 
USD/CAD
 
General overview
 
The broad base dollar retracement helped the CAD to strengthen. Investors’ attention now turns to the BOC Rate Statement and Interest Rate Decision.
 
Current situation
 
The USD/CAD recovery stalled at 1.3190. The spot came across sellers’ pressure around the level and sharply dropped in the Asian session on Tuesday. The price broke 1.3120 and tested 1.3050 in the European trade. The 4 hours chart showed that the price bounced off the 50-EMA downwards. The price continued developing well below its moving averages afterwards. The moving averages kept heading lower in the same chart. The resistance is highlighted at 1.3120, the support comes in at 1.3050.
 
The MACD histogram decreased which is a sell signal. The RSI indicator left the neutral area and stayed within oversold territory. 
 
Trading recommendations
 
The bearish trend remained intact. We suppose the USD/CAD pair will break the 1.0350 level first. Having overcome the first target the spot might advance towards 1.2980.
 
12656792.jpg
 
XAU/USD
 
General overview
 
Gold strengthened amid risk-off sentiments ahead of Theresa May's speech which was expected to be hard.
 
Current situation
 
Gold had another positive day on Tuesday. The XAU/USD pair jumped to a fresh weekly high in the Asian session. Buyers moved the price upwards and broke 1210 dollars per ounce in the early European trades. Having broken the level the gold spot extended its gains and approached the 1220 hurdle where the buying impetus faded. The price hovered above the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 100-EMA crossed the 200-EMA upwards. The 50 and the 100-EMAs maintained their bullish slope while the 200-EMA remained flat. The resistance exists at 1220, the support stands at 1210 dollars per ounce.
 
MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. RSI consolidated within positive territory.
 
Trading recommendations
 
Sustained break above 1220 region is seen as minimum requirement needed to confirm bullish resumption. Otherwise sellers may lead prices towards 1210 and 1200 dollars per ounce.
 
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Brent
 
General overview
 
Brent strengthened on hopes that OPEC and non-OPEC members will keep to their production cut deal.
 
Current situation
 
Bulls fought back control and pushed the price higher on Tuesday. The benchmark jumped to 56.50 ahead of the European session opening. The upmove lost its legs after the level test. The price bounced off the 50-EMA and crossed the 100-EMA upwards in the 4 hours chart. The benchmark stayed above its moving averages afterwards. The 50 and the 100-EMAs were flat while the 200-EMA pointed higher in the same chart. The resistance lies at 56.50, the support comes in at 55.50 dollars per barrel.
 
MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram returns the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD enters into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. The RSI left the neutral area and moved upwards.
 
Trading recommendations
The bullish scenario prevailed on Tuesday. If the buying interest remains intact we don’t rule out further extension of the benchmark to 57.50 and 58.50 dollars per barrel.
 
12668056.jpg
 
DAX
 
General overview
 
European stocks moved lower following the mining and automobile sectors decline.
 
Current situation
 
DAX turned lower on Tuesday. The index gapped downwards at the daily open and extended its bearishness afterwards. Sellers pushed the price below 11500 during the Asian trades and headed towards 11400 in the European session. However, a fresh buying interest around the handle helped DAX  reverse daily losses and returned to opening prices. The price broke the 50-EMA downwards and tested the 100-EMA in the 4 hours chart. All moving averages pointed higher in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance exists at 11500, the support stands at 11400.
 
MACD entered the negative area. If MACD remains in the negative territory, sellers’ positions will strengthen.  RSI left the neutral territory and moved downwards. 
 
Trading recommendations
 
In the 4 hours chart, the technical picture favors a downward extension. As the most probable scenario, we consider further moving downwards towards the level at 11400. The next bearish target is 11300.
 
12674200.jpg 
 
NASDAQ
 
General overview
 
The US stocks turned red at the NY session opening following the hard Theresa May's remarks regarding Brexit. The markets digested as well and Morgan Stanley corporate earnings report.
 
Current situation
 
The index lost its upward momentum on Tuesday. NASDAQ met a barrier at 5060 and had to retreat. The benchmark gave up its gains and edged lower during the Asian hours. Bears kept pushing the price lower heading towards 5020 in the European session. However, sellers met buyers; resistance around the handle and had to retreat. The index turned around and reversed a minor portion of its losses. The price broke the 50-EMA downwards and tested the 100-EMA in the 1 hour chat. The moving averages maintained their bullish slope in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is at 5060, the support comes in at 5020.
 
MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI left the overvalued territory and entered the neutral one.
 
Trading recommendations
 
We prefer to stay bearish for now. A break below 5020 may suggest further weakness of the benchmark. A break through here will turn attention to the 4980 level.
 
12686488.jpg
 
 
 
 *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman
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#532
ValdisTF

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19.01.2017
 
Euro
 
General overview
 
The dollar erased some of its losses vs. the euro ahead of J. Yellen’s speech on Wednesday. Moreover, the greenback got support from US consumer price index which coincided with investors’ expectations. The ECB will announce its interest rate decision later the day.
 
Current situation
 
The bullish market structure remained in place on Wednesday. The euro completed an upside impulse and retreated from the weekly high at 1.0716. The current rebound should be considered corrective amid profit-taking after the recent rally. The pair returned below 1.0700 in the early trades on Wednesday and stayed around the level during the European trades. The price continued developing well above the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50 and the 100-EMAs maintained their bullish slope while the 200-EMA remained neutral in the same chart.  The resistance is at 1.0700, the support comes in at 1.0650.
 
MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI oscillator remained within overvalued readings. 
 
Trading recommendations
 
The EUR/USD pair now seems to be heading towards its immediate support near 1.0650. When we break the level the support 1.0600 comes back into play. However, we believe the euro is to remain supported in the short-term as long as 1.0500 is intact.
 
12707845.jpg
 
Pound
 
General overview
 
Concerns regarding hard Brexit keep weighing on the cable. Despite the positive labor market data (Unemployment Rate remained unchanged, Claimant Count Change on the contrary increased) the pound weakened on Wednesday.
 
Current situation
 
The pound opened red against the dollar on Wednesday. The cable bounced off the border of the overbought zone and headed lower in the Asian session. Sellers broke the 1.2400 level in the early trades and tested 1.2300 in the European session. However, the 1.2300 handle stopped sellers' advance. After touching the level the price rolled back and hovered above the level ahead of the NY opening. The spot bounced off the 200-EMA in the 4 hours chart. All moving averages kept heading lower in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance lies at 1.2400, the support comes in at 1.2300.
 
MACD decreased which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI remained within the overbought area.
 
Trading recommendations
 
A bearish tone prevailed in the 4 hours chart. We recommend going short with the first target – 1.2200. After consolidation below the first target the GBP/USD may advance to the 1.2100 level.
 
12648450.jpg
 
Yen
 
General overview
 
The US dollar took a breath reaching the 7-week lows while investors focused on J.Yellen’s speech.
 
Current situation
 
The USD/JPY remained within a downtrend channel on Wednesday. The USD/JPY pair found a solid support at 112.50. The mark rejected the spot upwards giving the US dollar a chance to reverse a minor portion of its losses. After breaking 113.00 in the Asian session the recovery stalled above the level during the European hours. The 4 hours chart showed that the price continued developing well below the moving averages. The 100 EMA crossed the 200-EMA downwards. The 50 and the 100-EMAs kept heading lower while the 200-EMA remained flat. The resistance is highlighted at 113.00, the support comes in at 112.00.
 
MACD traded to the downside. The RSI left the oversold readings and moved higher.
 
Trading recommendations
 
We expect the USD/JPY pair to extend its bullishness in the short-term. Should the US dollar advance beyond the 114.00 level, the spot may extend its rally up to 114.50.
 
12661762.jpg
 
AUD/USD
 
General overview
 
The AUD maintained its upbeat tone vs. the US dollar getting support from oil prices dynamics. The upcoming labor market data may support the Australian dollar as well.
 
Current situation
 
The tone is still positive in the market. The AUD/USD pair stayed around 2-week highs flirting with the 0.7550 level. The price was confined within a tight trading range around the level tending to move lower. The spot hovered above its moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50 and 100-EMAs maintained their bullish slope while the 200-EMA was flat in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is highlighted at 0.7550, the support comes in at 0.7500.
 
MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. The RSI consolidated within overvalued territory. 
 
Trading recommendations
 
We expect a downward correction in the short-term. If we see a close below 0.7550 we will sell the spot. The potential bearish target is the 0.7500 handle.
 
12658690.jpg
 
XAU/USD
 
General overview
 
Gold slowed down its rally after reaching 8-week highs amid the US dollar recovery and risk-on sentiment. All eyes were on inflation data and Yellen's speech on Wednesday.
 
Current situation
 
Gold prices remained in an ascending channel on Wednesday. After reaching the 4-weeks peaks on Tuesday the metal slightly retreated and approached the lower limit of its upward structure on Wednesday. The XAU/USD pair slightly declined in the Asian session and found some support at 1210 dollars per ounce. Sellers struggled hard to break below the level during the European hours. According to the 1 hour chart the price tested the bullish 50-EMA. The price stayed above its moving averages which maintained their bullish slope in the same chart. The resistance exists at 1220, the support stands at 1210 dollars per ounce.
 
MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. RSI consolidated within overvalued readings.
 
Trading recommendations
 
A clear break below 1210 would indicate that the bearish phase has been resumed. The 1200 handle seems to be the next probable bearish target. Anyway the gold spot is still strong enough to move higher. A break above 1220 risks the 1230 hurdle.
 
12678146.jpg
 
Brent
General overview
 
Brent declined despite the increased forecast from OPEC for demand for oil in 2017. Oil prices edged lower after OPEC raised its U.S. output forecast for 2017.
 
Current situation
 
Sellers took control of the flows on Wednesday. The last upward impetus stalled just above 56.50 dollars per barrel. The benchmark faced a downward rejection and dropped to 55.50 in the NY session on Tuesday. Sellers continued moving the price lower on Wednesday. Bears broke 55.50 dollars per barrel at the European session opening and headed south afterwards. The benchmark tested 54.50 in the mid-European session. The price broke all moving averages downwards in the 4 hours chart. The 100-EMA remained neutral while the 50-EMA pointed lower. The 200-EMA kept heading higher in the same chart. The resistance lies at 55.50, the support comes in at 54.50 dollars per barrel.
 
MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram returns the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD enters into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. The RSI left the neutral area and headed downwards.
Trading recommendations
 
As we see the market switched its tone to bearish. If the pressure persists sellers will remain in the driver’s seat. After a close below 54.50 we could see the benchmark extending its decline to 53.50 dollars per barrel.
 
12679170.jpg
 
DAX
 
General overview
 
 European stocks traded mixed on Wednesday as traders are looking for the ECB meeting results on Thursday.
 
Current situation
 
The index gapped higher at the daily open and reached 11600 after the jump. The benchmark failed to extend its gains and retreated immediately after the level test. Sellers kept moving DAX downwards during the European hours. The 4 hours chart showed that the price tested the 50-EMA. The benchmark remained between the 50 and the 100-EMAs during the European session. The moving averages kept heading higher in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance exists at 11600, the support stands at 11500.
 
 MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram returns the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD enters into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. RSI was within the neutral territory.  
 
Trading recommendations
 
A move below 11500 would indicate that immediate upward pressure eased. If the DAX index fixates below the current support it may reach the 11400 area in the short term.
 
12686338.jpg
 
S&P500
 
General overview
 
Wall Street opened in green as investors digested bank earnings reports awaiting for Janet Yellen's speech later the day.
 
Current situation
 
The index opened the day in green. The benchmark was able to grow and posted a daily high at 2268. S&P500 gave up its recent gains afterwards and eased towards 2260 in the European session. The price bounced off the 100-EMA and tested the-50 EMA in the 4 hours chat. The benchmark was between the 50 and the 100-EMAs during the European trades. The 50 and 100 EMAs were flat while the 200-EMAs kept heading higher in the same chart. The resistance is at 2280, the support comes in at 2260.
 
MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram returns the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD enters into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. RSI stayed within the neutral area.
 
Trading recommendations
 
If sellers keep control a close below 2260 might force the price to resume its downward trajectory towards the 2240 area.
 
12684290.jpg
 
 
 *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman
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#533
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20.01.2017
 
Euro
 
General overview
 
The ECB left its rates unchanged: the deposit rate remained at -0.4% and the interest one at 0.0%. Moreover, the US dollar strengthened amid upbeat data. The Initial Jobless Claims came in green. Housing Starts showed strong figures as well. Investors’ attention now turns to Trump's inauguration which will take place on Friday.
 
Current situation
 
The downward trajectory lost its legs just below 1.0650 when sellers met a solid barrier which rejected the pair upwards. The euro reversed majority of its losses on Thursday. The spot broke 1.0650 ahead of the European session opening and headed towards 1.0700. However, the upward impetus soon faded, the recovery stalled above 1.0650. A fresh selling interest dragged the pair downwards. The spot broke 1.0650 and tested 1.0600 at the US session opening. The EUR/USD pair presented a neutral-to-bullish stance during the European hours. The 4 hours chart showed that the price stayed above the moving averages. The 100-EMA crossed the 200-EMA upwards. The 50 and the 100-EMAs pointed higher while the 200-EMA remained flat in the same chart. The resistance is at 1.0700, the support comes in at 1.0650.
 
MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI was within neutral territory. 
 
Trading recommendations
 
We became bearish regarding the pair now. A break below 1.0650 would increase a negative signal and risk further easing of the EURUSD pair towards 1.0600, en route to 1.0550.
 
12691331.jpg
 
Pound
 
General overview
 
Housing Price Balance foe December came in worse than expecting slowing down the pound recovery on Thursday. The pound weakened further vs. the US dollar after the upbeat US data. We expect a number of UK's Retail Sales releases today which are expected with positive figures.
 
Current situation
 
The pound strengthened further on Thursday, sending the GBP/USD to its recent highs at 1.2400. The cable was able to reverse some of its losses amid broad dollar's weakness. Having found a local bottom at 1.2250 the spot reversed its direction and rallied upwards breaking 1.2300 in the European session. After passing the level the pair continued moving north targeting at 1.2400. Buying interest faded in the North American session. The price faced the downward rejection and turned lower. The price continued developing well between the 200 and the 100-EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The 50 and the 100-EMAs were neutral while the 200-EMA kept heading lower in the same chart. The resistance lies at 1.2400, the support comes in at 1.2300.
 
MACD grew which is a buy signal. RSI left the neutral area and entered overvalued territory.
 
Trading recommendations
 
The pound remained under the risk of falling deeper down. The 1.2400 hurdle coupled with the 200-EMA limited the pound further advance. A downtrend will start as soon, as the spot drops below the support level 1.2300. Further easing to 1.2200 is not ruled out. A break above 1.2400 will advance the spot to 1.2450.
 
12702595.jpg
 
Yen
 
General overview
 
J. Yellen’s remarks coupled with strong data boosted the US dollar demand. The strong labor market data and Housing Starts release supported the greenback on Friday. All eyes are on Trump's inauguration.
 
Current situation
 
The pair remained in a short-term downward channel staying around its upper limit on Thursday. Buyers lost their momentum after touching 115.00. The US dollar was in a consolidation phase during the Asian and European sessions. Traders struggled with the hurdle to resume their advance. The level, however, turned out to be a solid obstacle to break. The US dollar got under selling pressure on any up-move towards the level. A fresh bout of buying interest supported the U.S. dollar. The major attacked the 115.00 hurdle with fresh vigour during the NY hours. The price tested the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 100-EMA crossed the 200-EMA downwards. The 50 and the 100-EMAs maintained their bearish slope while the 200-EMA remained neutral in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is highlighted at 115.00, the support comes in at 114.00.
 
MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. The RSI was within overvalued readings close to the neutral territory.
 
Trading recommendations
 
We believe that a break through 115.00 will put on hold bears’ plans. The potential buyers’ target is 116.00.
 
12705667.jpg
 
NZD/USD
 
General overview
 
New Zealand Business PMI posted positive figures while Building Permits came in red. Moreover, the kiwi as a commodity currency was supported by oil prices positive dynamics. The recent US data weighed on the NZD as well.
 
Current situation
 
The Asian recovery lost its steam after testing the level 0.7200. The hurdle appeared to be a tough nut to crack. After touching the level the NZD rolled back in the Asian session and remained below the resistance during the European hours. According to the 4 hours chart the spot hovered above its moving averages on Thursday. The 50 and 100-EMAs kept pointing higher while the 200-EMA was neutral in the mentioned chart. The resistance is highlighted at 0.7200, the support comes in at 0.7150.
 
MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. The RSI left the neutral area and headed north. 
 
Trading recommendations
 
Inability to retake 0.7200 may reverse the market. A sharp breakout below 0.7150 could spark a further easing towards 0.7100 in the coming days.
 
12701571.jpg
 
XAU/USD
 
General overview
 
The broad US dollar strengthening weighed on the precious metal. Besides a strong dollar gold prices softened amid the upbeat US data and the ECB decision to keep its rates unchanged.
 
Current situation
 
Gold prices remained under pressure on Thursday amid a strong dollar. The pair bounced off the 1200 psychological mark and remained around the handle during the day. The metal continued developing well above its moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50 and the 100-EMAs kept heading higher while the 200-EMA was flat in the same chart. The resistance exists at 1210, the support stands at 1200 dollars per ounce.
 
MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI stayed within the neutral territory.
 
Trading recommendations
 
We prefer to stay bearish for now. We would be selling gold only if the price drops below 1200. A firm break below 1200 handle could trigger fresh weakness for attack at 1190 dollars per ounce.
 
12710787.jpg
 
Brent
 
General overview
 
The US oil inventory draw gave a temporally support for oil prices. The market will be focused on Oil Rig Count in the coming sessions.
 
Current situation
 
Oil prices remained in red figures after Wednesday's bearish acceleration. Brent a little changed on the day and remained prone to more weakness on Thursday. The benchmark stayed neutral around 54.50 dollars per barrel flirting with the level during the European session. Oil price stayed below the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA crossed the 200-EMA downwards. The 100-EMA was flat while the 50-EMA headed lower, the 200-EMA maintained its bullish slope in the same chart. The resistance lies at 54.50, the support comes in at 53.50 dollars per barrel.
 
MACD entered the negative area. If MACD remains in the negative territory, sellers’ positions will strengthen. The RSI indicator was within the oversold readings.
 
Trading recommendations
 
Near-term technical studies are in full bearish setup. A daily close below 53.50 dollars per barrel will pave way for further near-term downslide towards the very important 50.00 psychological mark.
 
12709763.jpg
 
DAX
 
General overview
 
European bourses edged higher on Thursday after the ECB's decision to leave the rates unchanged. Meanwhile, mining stocks traded mixed while the financial sector shares moved broadly higher. Investors kept digesting Janet Yellen's comments. According to Yellen the Fed may raise the rates quickly this year.
 
Current situation
 
The index gapped higher at the daily open. However, the upmove lacked momentum immediately after the jump. The price softened filling the gap in the European session. Sellers broke 11600 and tried to push the price lower during the day. According to the 4 hours chart the index broke the 50-EMA upwards. The benchmark continued developing well above the moving averages afterwards. The moving averages maintained their bullish slope in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance exists at 11600, the support stands at 11500.
 
MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram returns the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD enters into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. RSI stayed within the neutral territory close to the overvalued territory. 
 
Trading recommendations
 
In order to recover some strength, DAX30 needs to rise above 11600. However, as the most probable scenario, we consider further moving downwards towards the level at 11500.
 
 12656512.jpg
 
NASDAQ
 
General overview
 
The US stocks opened higher amid the U.S strong data.  Investors focused on key companies (IBM and American Express) earnings reports which will report after the bell. However, traders preferred wait and see mode ahead of Donald Trump's inauguration on Friday.
 
Current situation
 
The index traded in a tight range on Thursday. The price was sandwiched between 5060 and 5040 during the day. The benchmark started the day at the open limit of the band and moved down to its lower limit during the course of the European trades. The price stayed above the moving averages in the 1 hour chat. The 50-EMA crossed the 100-EMA downwards. The 50-EMA was flat while the 100 and the 200-EMAs kept heading higher in the same chart. The resistance is at 2280, the support comes in at 2260.
 
Trading recommendations
 
The market seems fairly balanced. The index feels comfortably in the current range. A clear break of either side is needed to signal fresh direction. Meanwhile we prefer to stay out of trades until we get a clear picture.
 
12650368.jpg
 
 
 *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman
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#534
ValdisTF

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23.01.2017
 
Euro
 
General overview
 
The dollar reversed some of its losses after hawkish J.Yellen's remarks. The euro ignored Germany PPI which came in a line with expectations. Markets focused on Trump's inauguration on Friday expecting to hear fresh guidelines from a new President. Traders wait for Draghi's speech and Germany Manufacturing PMI on Monday.
 
Current situation
 
Despite technical readings the pair held to its recent bullish tone on Friday. The EUR/USD pair remained in a near-term ascending channel. The price reached its upper boundary overnight and bounced off it at the beginning of the European trades. The spot pushed away from 1.0700 and reached 1.0650 in the mid-European session. The price broke the 50 and the 100-EMAs downwards and tested the 200-EMA in the 1 hour chart during the European hours. The 100 and the 200-EMAs kept heading higher while the 50-EMA headed downwards in the same chart. The resistance is at 1.0700, the support comes in at 1.0650.
 
MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI was within neutral territory favoring a new move lower. 
 
Trading recommendations
 
A break below 1.0650 may trigger another leg lower. A daily close below 1.0600 handle would open 1.0550. However, a lower limit of an upward channel is a solid obstacle which may reject the pair once again. If the level holds the EUR/USD pair will refresh to the current highs at 1.0720.
 
12662467.jpg
 
Pound
 
General overview
 
The pound lost its impetus amid worse than expected Retail Sales. Despite the negative data the sterling maintained its upbeat tone on Friday`.
 
Current situation
 
The Asian recovery stalled a few pips below 1.2400. After posting a daily high at 1.2374 the spot turned around and headed towards 1.2300. Sellers broke the level in the mid-European session and led the pair towards 1.2250. However, a revived buying interest stopped sellers' advance and returned the cable to 1.2300 ahead of the NY opening. The spot failed to retake the 200-EMA in the Asian session and bounced off the moving afterwards. GBP/USD pair headed towards neutral 100-EMA in the European session. The moving averages were mixed: the 100-EMA was neutral, the 200-EMA kept heading lower while the 50-EMA pointed higher in the 4 hours chart. The resistance lies at 1.2400, the support comes in at 1.2300.
 
The MACD histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ growing strength. RSI left the overvalued readings and headed south.
 
Trading recommendations
 
A break below 1.2300 may suggests further weakness of the GBPUSD pair. The price might extend the downtrend towards the 1.2200. 
 
12664515.jpg
 
Yen
 
General overview
 
The dollar weakened after J.Yellen's hawkish speech. However, the greenback reverted some losses on Friday on expectations of D.Trump's speech after his inauguration.
 
Current situation
 
The USD/JPY pair extended its recovery on Friday. The US dollar was struggling with the 115.00 hurdle during the Asian session. Bulls broke the level ahead of the European session opening. However, the spot lost its upward impetus soon and returned to 115.00. According to the 4 hours chart the price bounced off the 50-EMA in the Asian session. The spot was between the 100 and the 50 EMAs during the European hours. The 50 and the 100-EMAs pointed lower while the 200-EMA remained flat in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is highlighted at 116.00, the support comes in at 115.00.
 
MACD entered the positive area. If MACD remains in the positive territory, buyers’ positions will strengthen. The RSI stayed within overvalued readings.
 
Trading recommendations
The overall outlook remained bullish, for a rise towards 116.00 resistance area. After the hurdle break a further extension towards 117.00 could be observed further. If the level 115.00 fails to support bulls the USD/JPY pair may lost its ground again returning to a downside. 
 
12658371.jpg
 
USD/CAD
 
General overview
 
The Canadian regulator disappointed investors with Retail Sales and Consumer Price index reports. Both indices came in worse than expected. However this data had little effect on the CAD which was under pressure amid broad base the US dollar strength.  
 
Current situation
 
The pair held a bullish tone on Friday. Strong bullish sentiment was driving the pair towards 1.3330 in the first part of the day. Buyers managed to break the level in the mid-European session and continued moving upwards afterwards. The pair almost reached 1.3400 when the US dollar lost its impetus and retreated to 1.3330 in the NY session. The price broke all moving averages upwards and stayed above them during the day. The 50-EMA pointed higher, the 100-EMA headed lower while the 200-EMA remained neutral in the 4 hours chart. The resistance is highlighted at 1.3400, the support comes in at 1.3330.
 
The MACD histogram grew which indicates buyers’ strength. The RSI stayed within the overvalued readings favoring a new move higher. 
 
Trading recommendations
 
The bullish trend remained intact. A close above 1.3330 may trigger gains towards 1.3400. USD/CAD may extend its rally after a solid close above 1.3400. Inability to break above 1.3400 may bring some negative sentiment to markets. If sellers seize control they will push the price to 1.3190.
 
12669635.jpg
 
XAU/USD
 
General overview
 
Risk aversion in the first part of the week helped the metal to strengthen. However, the risk-on mood returned on Friday and the US dollar managed to reverse a minor part of its losses.
 
Current situation
 
The Asian recovery lost its momentum at 1210 dollars per ounce. The level rejected the XAU/USD pair sending it towards 1200 during the European early hours. The precious metal declined and tested the 1200 handle in the mid-European session. Sellers failed to reclaim the level and retreated. The precious metal remained around the level till the end of the trades. The 1 hour chart showed that the price broke the 50 and the 100-EMAs downwards during the Asian trades and tested the 200-EMA ahead of the NY session opening. The 50-EMA crossed the 100-EMA downwards in the same chart. The 100 and the 200-EMAs maintained their bullish slope while the 50-EMA pointed lower. The resistance exists at 1210, the support stands at 1200 dollars per ounce.
 
MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI left the neutral territory and headed downwards.
 
Trading recommendations
 
A clear break below the 1200 support will indicate that the upward movement had completed. The following downward movement could bring price back to 1190 area, en route to 1180 dollars per ounce.
 
12665539.jpg
 
Brent
 
General overview
 
The upbeat Q4 GDP in China supported the demand for oil on Friday. Moreover, Brent grew amid renewed hopes of tighter oil market in 2017. However, oil growth may be limited amid concerns regarding EIA crude inventory report. An inventory increase may weigh on the price and cut its recent gains.
 
Current situation
 
Brent extended its consolidative pattern in the Asian session on Friday. A fresh buying interest emerged ahead of the European session opening. The benchmark edged higher and tested the level 54.50 dollars per barrel during European morning trade. Oil prices extended their gains afterwards and broke the mentioned level in the mid-European session. Buyers did not stop and pushed the price higher testing 55.50 in the NY session. The price tested the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart in the European session. The price continued developing well below the moving averages. The 50 and the 200-EMAs were flat while the 100-EMA headed lower in the mentioned timeframe chart. The resistance lies at 55.50, the support comes in at 54.50 dollars per barrel.
 
MACD traded to the upside. The RSI left the oversold readings and headed north.
 
Trading recommendations
 
The bullish scenario prevailed on Friday. We will place buy orders if the benchmark does a breakout at the resistance level of 55.50. The next potential buyers’ target is 56.50 dollars per barrel.
 
12678851.jpg
 
DAX
 
General overview
 
European stocks edged higher on Friday awaiting for D.Trump’s inauguration. Financial stocks moved higher while mining ones added to losses on Friday.
 
Current situation
 
The index gapped higher at the daily open on Friday. Traders broke 11600 right after the gap and pushed the benchmark higher afterwards. The benchmark stayed above the moving averages which kept heading higher in the 4 hours timeframe. The resistance exists at 11700, the support stands at 11600.
 
MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram returns the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD enters into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. RSI remained within the neutral area favoring a new move higher. 
 
Trading recommendations
 
A bullish tone prevailed on Friday. After close above the 11600 level the 11700 hurdle could become an attractive price for investors.
 
 12696259.jpg
 
S&P500
 
General overview
 
The US stocks traded higher at the US session opening awaiting for Donald Trump's message in his inaugural speech.
 
Current situation
 
The index opened green on Friday. Traders pushed the benchmark higher heading towards the mark 2270. According to the 4 hours chart the price broke the 100-EMA upwards and tested the 50-EMA. The benchmark stayed above the 200 and the 100-EMAs during day. The 50 and the 100-EMAs were flat while the 200-EMA kept heading higher in the same chart. The resistance is at 2280, the support comes in at 2260.
 
MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram returns the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD enters into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. RSI indicator entered the neutral area.
 
Trading recommendations
 
We prefer to stay bullish for now. The short term outlook will be bullish as long as the price holds above 2260 level.
 
12699331.jpg
 
 
 *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman
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#535
ValdisTF

ValdisTF

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24.01.2017
 
Euro
 
General overview
 
The calendar remained thin and uneventful on Monday. The pair was influenced by broad base dollar retracement. Donald Trump's inaugural speech disappointed investors with absence of clear comments regarding taxes or investment measures. The market will be focused on PMI Composite and Manufacturing PMI from Markit in Germany on Tuesday.
 
Current situation
 
The common European currency maintained its bid tone for the 3rd consecutive session on Monday. The euro reached the level 1.0750 in the early trades which stopped its further advance. After touching the level the pair rolled back maintaining its bullish stance during the European hours. The spot extended its losses ahead of NY session opening. The 1 hour chart showed that the price continued developing well above its moving averages. The 50-EMA crossed the 100-EMA upwards. The moving averages pointed higher in the same chart. The resistance is at 1.0750, the support comes in at 1.0700.
 
The MACD histogram grew which indicates buyers’ strength. RSI stayed within the overvalued readings favoring a new move higher. 
 
Trading recommendations
 
A bullish tone prevails in the 4 hours chart. A break above 1.0750 may suggest further growth of the EURUSD pair towards 1.0800. In case of a bounce from 1.0750, the currency pair would fall as low as 1.0650.
 
12752304.jpg
 
Pound
 
General overview
 
The pound strengthened amid the US dollar weakness. The dollar softened after D.Trump’s inauguration speech which lacked any hints of his future program.
 
Current situation
 
The pound traded in the green zone on Monday extending its Friday's gains. The cable left the seven-week descending channel on Friday. The spot broke the level 1.2400 in the early Asian trades and advanced north during the European trades on Monday. The upward trajectory stopped a few pips below 1.2500 where a fresh bout of selling interest weighed on the spot. The price broke the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs upwards and stayed above them in the 4 hours chart. The 50 and 100-EMAs kept heading higher while the 200-EMA pointed lower. The resistance lies at 1.2500, the support comes in at 1.2400.
 
The MACD histogram grew which indicates buyers’ strength. RSI remained in the overvalued readings and headed higher.
 
Trading recommendations
 
We expect GBPUSD pair to trade bullish for now. Once the GBP/USD pair breaks above 1.2500, we think that the 1.2550 level will be next. 
 
12750256.jpg
 
Yen
 
General overview
 
The US dollar edged lower vs. the yen on Monday amid growing concerns that Trump’s first steps as the US President may bring instability in the Asian region causing «economical wars» with leading Asian economics.
 
Current situation
 
The USD/JPY pair stayed in the red zone on Monday. The spot found a solid support around 113.00 in the Asian session and recovered some ground during the European hours. After testing the 113.00 handle the price reversed its direction and grew up to 114.00 where it slowed down its recovery. A fresh selling interest emerged ahead of the NA session opening sending the pair to 113.00. The price broke the 50-EMA downwards in the Asian session in the 4 hours chart. The spot stayed below its moving averages on Monday. The 50 and the 100-EMAs kept heading lower while the 200-EMA was neutral in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is highlighted at 114.00, the support comes in at 113.00.
 
MACD entered the negative area. If MACD remains in the negative territory, sellers’ positions will strengthen. The RSI consolidated within oversold readings close to the neutral area.
 
Trading recommendations
 
Technical studies are in favour of the negative outcome. The USD/JPY pair risks falling back to 113.00 which is expected to limit its losses.
 
12773808.jpg
 
AUD/USD
 
General overview
 
Lack of clarity over Donald Trump's plans for economic stimulus weakened the US dollar. Moreover, the upbeat sentiment around commodities, especially Copper, boosted demand for AUD on Monday.
Current situation
 
The AUD/USD pair stayed in the near-term upward channel trading around its recent highs on Monday. The spot extended its buying momentum in the early trades. The Aussie broke the level 0.7550 in the Asian session and posted the daily high at 0.7575. The spot rolled back afterwards and returned to 0.7500 region. The price broke the 50-EMA downwards and tested the 100-EMA in the 1 hour chart. The moving averages were all pointing higher in the same chart. The resistance is highlighted at 0.7600, the support comes in at 0.7550.
 
MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. The RSI stayed within the overvalued readings close to the neutral area. 
 
Trading recommendations
 
In the 4 hours chart, the technical picture favors an upward extension. The 0.7600 hurdle seems the first probable bullish target. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension towards 0.7650 could be observed further.
 
12726705.jpg
 
XAU/USD
 
General overview
 
Traders have not changed their opinion preserving upbeat tone on Monday. The demand for the metal grew amid uncertainty around Trump's proposed fiscal policy measures. A weak sentiment surrounding equity markets lent some support to the precious metal as well.
 
Current situation
 
Gold turned bearish on Monday. The metal eased off from its daily high as traders decided to book some profits after the recent rally. The XAU/USD pair pushed away from 1220 dollars per ounce in the Asian session and reached 1210 in the mid-European one. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs kept heading higher in the 4 hours chart. The resistance exists at 1220, the support stands at 1210 dollars per ounce.
 
The MACD histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ strength. The RSI oscillator moved downwards.
Trading recommendations
 
The precious metal is likely to extend its bearishness. The price eyes strong support at 1200 loss of which would trigger further weakness towards 1190 dollars per ounce. To revive its buying momentum the metal needs to retake 1220.
 
12749233.jpg
 
Brent
 
General overview
 
Oil prices moved lower on Monday amid a strong recovery in U.S. oil drilling activity. The prospects of rising U.S. production overwhelmed the news that OPEC members began lowering their oil output.
 
Current situation
 
The bearish scenario prevailed on Monday. After an Asian flat the price moved lower during the European yearly hours. The benchmark pushed away from 55.50 and headed towards 54.50 dollars per barrel. Brent tested 50 and 200 EMAs downwards in the 4 hours chart during the European hours. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs stayed neutral during the day. The resistance lies at 55.50, the support comes in at 54.50 dollars per barrel.
 
MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. The RSI indicator left the overvalued readings and headed south.
 
Trading recommendations
 
If a downward pressure persists there is a chance of breaking 54.50 dollars per barrel. A cut here will open the road towards 53.50.
 
12756401.jpg
 
DAX
 
General overview
 
European stocks traded lower on Monday after Trump’s inaugural speech. The financial sector was down together with energy stocks. Shares of Essentra lost 5% which contributed to the stocks decline as well.
 
Current situation
 
Bears seized the ball on Monday. The index gapped downwards at the daily open and extended its weakness afterwards. Sellers pushed the price downwards and tested the level 11500 post-European session open. The price bounced off the level after touching it and erased some of its recent losses. The DAX index broke the 50-EMA and tested the 100 EMA in the 4 hours chart during the European trades. The 50 and 100 EMAs turned neutral while the 200-EMA maintained its bullishness. The resistance exists at 11600, the support stands at 11500.
 
The MACD histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ growing strength. RSI moved to the downside.
 
Trading recommendations
 
If the price overcomes 11500 we could see DAX extending its declines down to 11400. A further extension to 11300 is not ruled out.
 
 12768689.jpg
 
NASDAQ
 
General overview
 
Wall Street traded lower in the premarket after Donald Trump’s inaugural speech. The disappointment from the US President Donald Trump's speech was behind the market's decline. Investors turned to earnings which are scheduled for this week.
 
Current situation
 
The index turned lower on Friday and continued losing its value on Monday. Sellers returned the price below 5060 and pushed the benchmark lower. The downward momentum lost its legs when the price reached 5040. The index broke the 50-EMA downwards in the 4 hours chart. All moving averages keep heading higher. The resistance is at 5060, the support comes in at 5020.
 
MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. RSI headed downwards confirming sellers’ strength.
 
Trading recommendations
 
In order to recover some strength, NASDAQ needs to rise back and hold above 5040. In this scenario the benchmark has a chance of maintaining its bid tone. Conversely, a break below 5020 will put on hold bulls’ plans. A firm break below the handle could trigger fresh weakness for attack at 5000.
 
12770737.jpg
 
 *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman
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#536
ValdisTF

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"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.
 
25.01.2017
 
Euro
 
General overview
 
Manufacturing PMI in Germany posted better-than-expected results. Services PMI showed on the contrary negative figures. The market will be focused on Business Climate in Germany on Wednesday.
 
Current situation
 
Sentiment remained bullish towards the euro on Tuesday. The EUR/USD traded in an ascending channel close to its upper limit. Euro bulls met a barrier at 1.0750 and failed to advance further. After posting a daily high at 1.0770 in the Asian session bulls stepped back and returned the pair to the 1.0750 region. The spot remained above the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50 and 100 EMAs kept heading higher while the 200 EMA stayed neutral. The resistance is at 1.0750, the support comes in at 1.0700.
 
MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. The RSI indicator is near overvalued territory, favoring a move lower.
 
Trading recommendations
 
A close above 1.0750 will generate fresh bullish signal for further advance towards 1.0800. Inability to move beyond the level may cause a pull back. The EUR/USD pair may correct lower to 1.0670 and 1.0650.
 
12719432.jpg
 
Pound
 
General overview
 
Traders booked some profits ahead of the UK Supreme Court's decision on Brexit. The Supreme Court had to decide whether Parliament approval is required to launch Article 50.
 
Current situation
 
The bullish market structure remained in place on Tuesday. Buyers failed to retake 1.2500 and had to retreat giving the floor to sellers. A fresh buying interest around the US currency helped the US dollar to recover from the recent lows. Sellers pushed the price lower in the Asian session but failed to advance below the mark 1.2460 before the European session. The pair continued its slide towards 1.2450 ahead of the NY session opening. The moving averages were mixed in the 4 hours chart. The 200-EMA remained bearish while the 50 and 100 EMAs were turning upwards. Moreover, the 50-EMA crossed the 100-EMA upwards. The resistance lies at 1.2500, the support comes in at 1.2400.
 
The MACD histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ growing strength. The RSI indicator remained within overbought readings.
 
Trading recommendations
 
Sustained break above the 1.2500 region is seen as minimum requirement needed to confirm bullish resumption. In this scenario, buyers may lead prices towards 1.2540, en rout to 1.2600. To ease the current upward pressure the spot needs to close below 1.2400. We will buy before this level reaching.
 
12733768.jpg
Yen
 
General overview
 
The yen received a light support from the upbeat Manufacturing PMI. Moreover, the uncertainty around Trump’s economic agenda kept on weighing on the US dollar.
 
Current situation
 
Sellers continued to dominate on Tuesday. However, bears seem to have taken a breath after meeting the solid support around multi-week lows at 112.50. The price bounced from the 112.50 support zone in the Asian session and developed a goodish recovery building on to its momentum back above 113.00 handle afterwards. After breaking the level the USD/JPY pair extended its growth in the European session. The US dollar had reversed half of Monday's sharp drop by the NY session opening. According the 4 hours chart the pair remained below its moving averages. The 50 and 100 EMAs advanced south while the 200-EMA remained neutral. The resistance is highlighted at 114.00, the support comes in at 113.00.
 
The technical indicators bounced from oversold levels staying within negative readings. The MACD histogram grew which indicates buyers’ growing strength. RSI bounced off the oversold area and headed north.
 
Trading recommendations
 
If bears retain control the spot will return below 113.00. This scenario risks the advance towards 112.00. To put on hold bears’ plans buyers need a clear break above 114.00.
 
12732744.jpg
 
NZD/USD
 
Current situation
 
The bullish momentum faded in the Asian session on Tuesday. The price gave up it recent gains and rolled back below 0.7250 in the late Asian session. Sellers extended their gains pushing the spot towards 0.7200 during the European hours. The selling interest lost its legs after touching the handle which rejected the price upwards. The pair remained above the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The 50 and 100 EMAs maintained their bullish slope while the 200-EMA remained flat. The resistance is highlighted at 0.7250, the support comes in at 0.7200.
 
MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. The RSI indicator was holding near oversold levels, favoring a move lower.
 
Trading recommendations
 
The 0.7250 hurdle seems the next probable bullish target. After breaking this level 0.7300 will come back to the radar. A return below 0.7150 risks a decline back towards the support at 0.7100.
 
12745032.jpg
 
XAU/USD
 
General overview
 
Uncertainties around Trump's Presidency continued weighing on gold prices limiting a downslide on Tuesday.
 
Current situation
 
Despite the ongoing easing the precious metal remained in green on Tuesday. The resistance 1220 dollars per ounce appeared to be a tough nut to crack. After testing the level the metal bounced back in the Asian session and returned to 1210 in the European one. Sellers lost their steam around the handle waiting for new market movers. The 50 and 100 EMAs kept their advance north while the 200-EMA just turned upwards. The resistance exists at 1220, the support stands at 1210 dollars per ounce.
 
MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI moved to a downside.
 
Trading recommendations
 
If the XAU/USD pair stays above 1210 dollars per ounce the gold spot may escalate up to 1220 first, en route to 1230.
 
12740936.jpg
 
Brent
 
General overview
 
Oil prices edged higher on Tuesday following output cuts announced by the OPEC on Monday. All eyes are on API inventory report.
 
Current situation
 
Oil prices rebounded in the Asian session on Tuesday. The buying sentiment was boosted by a weaker US dollar. However, the Asian recovery stalled above 55.50 dollars per barrel when the benchmark found fresh offers. Brent sharply dropped and broke the level 55.50 erasing all its recent gains. The benchmark bounced off the 50-EMA and tested the 100 and 200 EMAs in the 4 hours chart in the mid-European session. All moving averages were neutral. The resistance lies at 55.50, the support comes in at 54.50 dollars per barrel.
 
MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. The RSI oscillator moved downwards.
 
Trading recommendations
 
Brent seems to be unable to climb over 55.50. Sellers returned the price to the level on any up-move higher. A close below the hurdle will trigger losses towards 54.50 dollars per barrel. To revive bullishness oil prices need to retake the 55.50.
 
12756296.jpg
 
DAX
 
General overview
 
European stocks moved lower on Tuesday on UK Supreme Court decision regarding Brexit. The Prime Minister will require parliamentary approval to launch Brexit now. Energy stocks traded higher, financial stocks registered gains as well.
 
Current situation
 
The index remained under pressure on Tuesday. DAX stayed below 11600 getting under selling pressure on any up-move towards the hurdle. The benchmark failed to retake the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The DAX index stayed between the 50 and 100 EMAs during the European hours. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs maintained their bullish slope. The resistance exists at 11600, the support stands at 11500.
 
MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. RSI was neutral.
Trading recommendations
 
We await a break below 11500 to trigger a new leg lower.
 
 12757320.jpg
 
S&P500
 
Current situation
 
The index traded in the negative area on Tuesday. The benchmark stayed around the level 2260 trying to break it lower. S&P500 was struggling with the 100-EMA in the 4 hours chart during the day. The 50-EMA acted as a resistance for the index. The 50 and 100 EMAs were neutral while the 200-EMA moved upwards. The resistance is at 2280, the support comes in at 2260.
 
MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. RSI was neutral.
 
Trading recommendations
 
If a selling interest persists a move below 2260 would revive bearishness towards 2240.
 
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 *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman
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#537
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"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.
 
26.01.2017
 
Euro
 
General overview
 
The European common currency got under selling pressure in the morning trades on Wednesday amid negative Business Climate release in Germany. A demand for the euro emerged in the European session helping the major to reverse its losses climbing to fresh highs.  
 
Current situation
 
Bears tried to take control over the market on Wednesday. After a night consolidation sellers made an attempt to move the price lower at the beginning of the European session. The price headed towards 1.0700 first, however, the selling interest faded soon. The pair found fresh bids above 1.0700 and extended its corrective rally on risk-on trades. The common currency rallied and reversed all Tuesday’s losses by the noon. The spot hovered above its moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50 and the 100-EMAs maintained their bullish slope while the 200-EMA remained neutral in the same chart. The resistance is at 1.0750, the support comes in at 1.0700.
 
MACD grew which indicates the buyers’ positions strengthening. RSI stayed within overvalued readings. 
 
Trading recommendations
 
A bullish tone prevailed in the 4 hours chart. We will place buy orders if the EURAUD does a breakout at the resistance level of 1.0750. The pair might extend its gains towards 1.0800 afterwards. Meanwhile, inability to climb above 1.07500 risks a decline back to 1.0700.
 
12740812.jpg
 
Pound
 
General overview
 
The UK Industrial Trends Survey - Orders grew for January providing support for the cable. Investors kept weighing up M.Carney's remarks. The immediate focus now remains on the UK GDP for 4Q. Traders expect a light decline in the GDP.
 
Current situation
 
The GBP/USD pair kept its rangebound stance unchanged the first part of Wednesday. The spot traded in a tight range flirting with 1.2500 during the day. A fresh buying impetus boosted the GBP/USD pair to 1.2600 after London's opening. The spot continued developing well above its moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA crossed the 100-EMA upwards. The 50 and the 100-EMAs kept heading higher while the 200-EMA pointed lower in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance lies at 1.2600, the support comes in at 1.2500.
 
MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. RSI indicator consolidated within overvalued readings favoring a new move higher.
 
Trading recommendations
 
Strategically, we preserve bearish outlook and see risks of a move down towards 1.2400 over the coming weeks. Meanwhile, the price maintained its bullish tone in the 4 hours chart. The GBP/USD pair now seems to be heading towards its immediate resistance near 1.2700. However, the spot needs to break the 1.2600 level first to maintain its bullishness.
 
12751052.jpg
 
Yen
 
General overview
 
Protectionist rhetoric from the White House kept weighing on the dollar. Exports and Merchandise Trade Balance in Japan showed upbeat data supporting the national currency.
 
Current situation
 
USD/JPY remained in bearish trend. Tuesday’s recovery stalled when the price met a barrier at 114.00. Buyers failed to retake the level which rejected the USD/JPY pair downwards. The spot rolled back and stopped a few pips below the hurdle. The pair was confined to a well limited range below 114.00 during the European hours and continued its slide ahead of the NY session opening. The 4 hours chart showed that the price tested the 50-EMA in the early trades. The US dollar failed to reclaim the 50-EMA and bounced off it. The benchmark remained below its moving averages.  The 50 and the 100-EMAs kept heading lower while the 200-EMA stayed flat in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is highlighted at 114.00, the support comes in at 113.00.
 
MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. The RSI remained within the neutral area.
 
Trading recommendations
 
We expect to see renewed bearish pressure in the coming sessions. Sellers may drive the pair to 113.00 first, en route to 112.50.
 
12746956.jpg
 
USD/CAD
 
General overview
 
Trump’s plans to revive Keystone XL and Dakota Access oil pipelines weighed on the Canadian dollar. However, the Loonie recovered some ground later the day in the light of weaker oil prices.
 
Current situation
 
The US dollar remained rather unchanged against its Canadian peer. After a sharp sell-off sellers took a breath consolidating their gains. The price hovered above 1.3120 in the morning after being rejected in the early Asian trades. A fresh buying interest emerged in the mid-European session pushing the US dollar upwards. An attempt to raise rates failed and a downward pressure returned the spot to 1.3120 in the mid-European session. The CAD broke 100 and 50-EMAs downwards in the 4 hours chart. The USD/CAD pair stayed below the moving averages afterwards. The 100-EMAs kept heading lower while the 50 and the 200-EMAs were neutral in the same chart. The resistance is highlighted at 1.3190, the support comes in at 1.3120.
 
MACD entered the negative area. If MACD remains in the negative territory, sellers’ positions will strengthen. The RSI consolidated within the oversold readings. 
 
Trading recommendations
 
The overall outlook remains bearish, for a fall towards 1.3050 support area. However, the USD/CAD is oversold and we do not rule out a minor correction towards 1.32.
 
12760268.jpg
 
XAU/USD
 
General overview
 
Uncertainty around Trump’s economic agenda and lack of US data softened the US dollar. Gold took an advantage of weaker dollar and strengthened. Markets now eagerly await the US Housing Price Index report.
 
Current situation
 
Gold prices turned negative after the opening. The XAU/USD pair came under some profit-taking pressure on Wednesday. Bears seized control and pushed the price downwards. The metal pushed away from the 1210 dollars per ounce in the Asian session and headed downwards. European traders continued dragging gold futures downwards and reached 1200 in the mid-European session. However, the level limited sellers’ advance rejecting the gold spot. According to the 4 hours chart the price broke the 50-EMA downwards and stayed between the 50 and the 100-EMAs afterwards. The 50 and the 100-EMA pointed higher, while the 200-EMA remained flat. The resistance exists at 1210, the support stands at 1200 dollars per ounce.
 
MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. RSI left the neutral territory and entered oversold readings.
 
Trading recommendations
 
The uptrend is not over yet. The buying interest remains while 1195 pivot holds. We expect gold prices to resume their growth. A break above 1210 will suggest its further strengthening towards 1220 dollars per ounce.
 
12761292.jpg
 
Brent
 
General overview
 
Oil prices edged lower ahead of the EIA crude stockpiles report.
 
Current situation
 
Traders remained equally divided between bulls and bears on Wednesday. Brent failed to sustain a minor-recovery above 55.50 hurdle and extended losses below the last. The price remained in a tight range during the Asian session. Traders made an attempt to lower the price in the early European session but succeeded in the second one. The price broke its moving averages downwards in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages remained flat in the same chart. The resistance lies at 55.50, the support comes in at 54.50 dollars per barrel.
 
MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. The RSI remained within neutral area.
 
Trading recommendations
 
We suppose the benchmark will go to 54.50 first. Having overcome the first target the price might advance towards 53.50 dollars per barrel.
 
12758220.jpg
 
DAX
 
General overview
 
European stocks traded in green on Wednesday. The latest earnings reports supported stocks. The growth was boosted by Logitech and Banco Santander upbeat figures.
 
Current situation
 
The index gapped higher at the daily open. The benchmark maintained its bid tone afterwards. Buyers pushed the price through 11700 in the early European trades. DAX extended its rally in the late European hours approaching to 11800. The 4 hours chart showed that the price broke the 100 and 50 EMAs upwards. The benchmark moved away from the moving averages which kept heading higher in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance exists at 11800, the support stands at 11700.
 
The MACD histogram grew which indicates buyers’ strength. RSI stayed within overvalued readings favoring a new move higher. 
 
Trading recommendations
 
We prefer to stay bullish for now. If the benchmark stays above 11700 DAX will aim at 11800.
 
 12770508.jpg
NASDAQ
 
General overview
 
Wall Street futures hit record highs on Wednesday. The post-election rally seems to have returned boosted by President Trump's push for pro-growth policies.
 
Current situation
 
The index had a positive day on Wednesday. A brief consolidation phase was over by the European trades opening. European traders pushed the price higher which rallied towards 5120. The upward impetus faded about the mark ahead of the NY session opening. NASDAQ continued developing well above its moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50, 100 and 200-EMAs accelerated their advance north in the same chart. The resistance is at 5140, the support comes in at 5100.
 
The MACD histogram grew which indicates buyers’ strength. RSI oscillator stayed near overbought levels, favoring a new move higher.
 
Trading recommendations
 
The technical picture presents a bullish tone. A break above 5100 opened the way to the 5140 hurdle.
 
12766412.jpg
 
 
 *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman
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#538
ValdisTF

ValdisTF

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"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.
 
27.01.2017
 
Euro
 
General overview
 
Investors ignored positive Eurozone data: Consumer Confidence Survey in Germany showed better than expected results, Unemployment Survey in Spain declined more than expected. The immediate focus now remains on US GDP which is set for Friday.
 
Current situation
 
The EUR/USD remained in bulls' hands on Thursday. The market seemed fairly balanced amid lack of market mover. The euro remained in a tight range between 1.0720-1.0750 during the Asia session. European traders pushed the price lower. The common European currency dropped and touched 1.0700 in the mid-European session. The spot broke the 50-EMA and tested the 100-EMA in the 1 hour chart. The 100 and the 200-EMAs pointed higher while the 50-EMA remained neutral in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is at 1.0700, the support comes in at 1.0650.
 
MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI left overvalued readings and moved south. 
 
Trading recommendations
 
We prefer to stay bearish for now. A move below 1.7000 will signal the presence of sellers. The pair EURUSD may go downwards towards 1.0650 after the level break. If the price closes above 1.0750, the market may continue moving upwards.
 
12743758.jpg
 
Pound
 
General overview
 
The UK's Q4 GDP came in better-than-expected supporting the national currency. Moreover, the pound received extra support after Supreme Court decision which ruled that Article 50 requires parliamentary approval to be launched. We expect US Gross Domestic Product Price and Durable Goods Orders releases on Friday. We will also be keeping a close eye on Trump and May's meeting. Theresa May will become the first foreign leader to meet the new President.
 
Current situation
 
The pound surprised markets on Wednesday, having successfully climbed over the 1.26 hurdle. After reaching multi-month highs the GBP/USD pair slowed down. Buyers seem to have completed an upside impulse for now. Having run out of steam bulls stopped at 1.2650 in the mid-European session and gave way to sellers. Bears pushed the price lower and tested 1.2600 ahead of the NY session opening. The spot extended its losses in the early US trades. The 4 hours chart showed that the price hovered above its moving averages. The 50-EMA crossed the 200-EMA upwards. The 50 and the 100-EMAs maintained their bullish slope while the 200-EMA was neutral in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance lies at 1.2600, the support comes in at 1.2500.
 
The MACD histogram grew which indicates buyers’ strength. RSI indicator consolidated within overvalued readings.
 
Trading recommendations
 
Technically the GBP/USD pair is heavily overbought. We expect a correction move below 1.2600. If the spot fixates below the handle we could see GBPUSD extending its declines down to 1.2500.
 
12745806.jpg
 
Yen
 
General overview
 
The yen weakened despite existing risks towards world trade which keep supporting the safe-heaven yen. Japan will release CPI figures in the night.
 
Current situation
 
Bears lost the ball on Thursday. The pair stayed range-bound-to higher in the Asian session. An upward impetus emerged ahead of the European session opening. The US dollar bounced off 113.00 and moved towards 114.00 during the morning hours. The U.S dollar accelerated its recovery post-European open and jumped to fresh session peak above 114.00 level. The price broke the 50-EMA upwards in the 4 hours chart. The spot continued developing well below the 100 and the 200-EMAs afterwards. The 50 and the 100-EMAs pointed lower while the 200-EMA remained neutral in the same chart. The resistance is highlighted at 115.00, the support comes in at 114.00.
 
MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. The RSI left the neutral area and moved north.
 
Trading recommendations
 
Bulls keep focus at 114.50. If they start to challenge this area it is likely to break and the price may move towards the 115.00 hurdle.
 
12740686.jpg
 
AUD/USD
 
General overview
 
The Australian market was closed amid Australia Day. The Aussie softened on the back of the U.S. dollar recovery. Moreover, falling Chinese industrial profits weighed on the Australian dollar.
 
Current situation
 
The AUD/USD remained in an ascending channel. However, buyers have no strength to go higher any more. The Asian recovery stalled at 0.7583. The AUD dropped at the beginning of the European session and broke the 0.7550 handle. Sellers continued leading the price lower in the NY session. According to the 4 hours chart the pair tested the 50-EMA. The spot stayed above the moving averages during the day. The 50 and the 100-EMAs kept heading higher while the 200-EMA remained neutral in the same chart. The resistance is highlighted at 0.7550, the support comes in at 0.7500.
 
MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. The RSI left the overvalued readings and entered the neutral area. 
 
Trading recommendations
 
We prefer to put on hold bulls’ plans for now. A break below 0.7550 might force the AUD/USD pair to resume its downward trajectory towards 0.7500.
 
12752974.jpg
 
XAU/USD
 
General overview
 
Gold prices edged lower following European and EU stocks rally. However, concerns over Trump’s protectionism kept limiting the US dollar recovery especially after Donald Trump signed a set of immigration laws on Wednesday.
 
Current situation
 
Gold prices remained under heavy selling pressure on Thursday. Sellers failed to move the price below 1193 in the night. The XAU/USD pair bounced off the mark and reversed some losses. The upward impetus, however, lost its legs at 1202 dollars per ounce in the late Asian session. The price turned around and returned below the handle in the European hours. The yellow metal continued trading in negative ground during the day and broke 1190 ahead of the NY session opening. The price broke the 50 and the 100-EMAs downwards in the 4 hours chart. The 50 and the 100-EMA remained bullish, while the 200-EMA was flat. The resistance exists at 1190, the support stands at 1180 dollars per ounce.
 
MACD entered the negative area. If MACD remains in the negative territory, sellers’ positions will strengthen. RSI consolidated within oversold readings.
 
Trading recommendations
 
To maintain control sellers need to retake 1190 dollars per ounce. In light of this scenario sellers will drive gold spot to 1180. To revive bullishness the precious metal needs to return above 1205-1210 dollars per ounce.
 
12760142.jpg
 
Brent
 
General overview
 
Weaker dollar supported demand for oil. However, Brent growth was limited amid a large number of supplies and bulging inventories despite OPEC’s attempts to cut output.
 
Current situation
 
Brent extended its consolidation on Thursday. The price traded comfortably around 55.50 during the day. As we see the level is defended by sellers as any buyers' attempt to move the benchmark higher failed. The 50, 100 and 200-EMA were neutral in the 4 hours chart. The resistance lies at 55.50, the support comes in at 54.50 dollars per barrel.
 
MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. The RSI remained within the neutral area.
 
Trading recommendations
 
The technical picture presented a bullish tone. Our next short-term target for the oil price is 56.50, after which we see Brent extending its rise over coming days towards the 57.50 dollars per barrel.
 
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DAX
 
General overview
 
European stocks traded higher following the news that Johnson & Johnson is to buy Actelion for $30 billion. Meanwhile, mining stocks traded mixed while financial stocks were on upside.
 
Current situation
 
The tone was positive in the market on Thursday. The index gapped higher at the daily open. DAX continued moving higher after the gap and reached 11900 in the early European trades. Buyers failed to retake the level and stayed a few pips below the hurdle during the day. The benchmark hovered above its moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages maintained their bullish slope in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance exists at 11900, the support stands at 11800.
 
The MACD histogram grew which indicates buyers’ strength. The RSI indicator remained within overvalued readings favoring a new move higher. 
 
Trading recommendations
 
The price maintained its bullish tone in the 4 hours chart. A close above 11800 will trigger gains towards 11900.
 
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S&P500
 
General overview
 
U.S. stock posted fresh record highs amid upbeat corporate earnings reports.  
 
Current situation
 
The bullish market structure remained in place on Thursday. S&P500 extended its vertical rise and tested the level 2300 in the early Asian trades. The hurdle limited the further bulls' advance and rejected the price downwards. The spot continued developing well above its moving averages in the 1 hour chart. The 50 and the 100-EMAs crossed the 200-EMA upwards. The moving averages maintained their bullish slope in the same chart. The resistance is at 2300, the support comes in at 2280.
 
The MACD histogram grew which indicates buyers’ strength. RSI oscillator consolidated within overbought levels.
 
Trading recommendations
 
If the bullish tone persists we expect a breakout of the level 2300. The next level to focus on is 2320.
 
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 *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman
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#539
ValdisTF

ValdisTF

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"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.
 
30.01.2017
 
Euro
 
General overview
 
The euro weakened amid the US dollar growing strength. The lack of market moving news in the calendar left the common currency flat-out.
 
Current situation
 
The euro continued its slide overnight and left the short-term upward channel. The common European currency traded mixed in the Asian session staying in a tight range 1.0650-1.0690. The pair maintained its neutral stance during the early European hours. The euro found fresh bids around 1.0700 and rallied through the level heading towards 1.0750 ahead of the NY opening. The price broke the 50-EMA downwards in the 4 hours chart. The spot stayed above the 100 and the 200-EMAs afterwards. The 50 and the 100-EMAs headed north while the 200-EMA remained flat in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is at 1.0750, the .support comes in at 1.0700.
 
MACD entered the negative area. If MACD remains in the negative territory, sellers’ positions will strengthen. RSI was within oversold readings close to the neutral area. 
 
Trading recommendations
 
A close above 1.0700 will generate fresh bullish signal for further advance, which could extend to 1.0750 level.
 
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Pound
 
General overview
 
The pound weakened amid a growing demand for the US dollar. The cable has a chance to return some ground after Trump and May’s meeting. The downbeat US data may also kick the cable higher. 
 
Current situation
 
The pound continued losing its value vs. the dollar in the Thursday’s night. The spot pushed away from 1.2600 and moved towards 1.2500 during the Asian hours. The pound continued losing its value in the European session approaching 1.2500. The level, however, stopped sellers’ advance and rejected the spot upwards. The price continued developing well above its moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50 and the 100-EMAs kept pointing higher while the 200-EMA was neutral in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance lies at 1.2600, the support comes in at 1.2500.
 
MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI indicator left the overvalued readings and entered the neutral area.
 
Trading recommendations
 
The bullish trend remained intact and the cable has a chance to return some ground if it gets above 1.2600. A breakout of 1.2600 level would aim for 1.2700. On the other hand existing selling pressure may lead the spot below 1.2500 aiming the pair to 1.2400.
 
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Yen
 
General overview
 
The yen softened amid broad US dollar recovery. The growing US yields weighed on the Japanese currency as well.
 
Current situation
 
The USD/JPY pair maintained its bid tone on Friday. The pair traded with slight gains in the Asian session. Buyers broke the level 115.00 in the night and continued moving higher afterwards. The pair extended its bounce in the European session when the price broke 115.00 and advanced further. The 4 hours chart showed that the price broke the 50 and the 100-EMAs upwards. The 100-EMA pointed lower while the 50 and the 200-EMAs remained flat in the same chart. The resistance is highlighted at 115.00, the support comes in at 114.00.
 
MACD entered the positive area. If MACD remains in the positive territory, buyers’ positions will strengthen. The RSI was within the overvalued readings favoring a new move higher.
 
Trading recommendations
 
If the level 115.00 holds we recommend going short with the first target – 114.00. The US dollar needs to fixate above 115.00 before a price can rally towards 116.00.
 
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NZD/USD
 
General overview
 
The US dollar maintained its bid tone on Friday. Markets waited for Trump’s new steps and the US GDP for Q4.
 
Current situation
 
The pair remained in an ascending channel on Friday. The downward impetus pushed the price to its lower limit on Thursday. An overnight recovery failed to show meaningful results. Only European traders managed to push the spot higher. The NZD/USD extended its recovery in the North American session. The price hovered above its moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50 and the 100-EMAs headed upwards while the 200-EMA was neutral in the same chart. The resistance is highlighted at 0.7300, the support comes in at 0.7250.
 
MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. The RSI was within the overvalued readings close to the neutral area. 
 
Trading recommendations
 
We prefer to stay bullish for now. Our short-term objective for the NZD/USD is 0.7311.  
 
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XAU/USD
 
General overview
 
Gold remained under pressure on Friday. The metal reached the lowest level since Jan. 11 and stopped. The US treasury bond yields growth boosted the US Dollar's recovery weighing on the dollar-denominated commodities - like gold.
 
Current situation
 
The U.S. currency maintained control of the flows. The bearish momentum was strong enough to push the price lower in the night session. The precious metal started its slide at 1188 dollars per ounce at the Asian open and reached 1180 in the early European trades. Gold remained well offered, however, sellers failed to push the price below the handle. The precious metal bounced from the level and remained in its region afterwards. According to the 4 hours chart the price continued developing well below the 50 and the 100-EMAs. The 100-EMA remained bullish, while the 50 and 200-EMAs were flat in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance exists at 1190, the support stands at 1180 dollars per ounce.
 
The MACD histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ strength. RSI consolidated within oversold readings.
 
Trading recommendations
 
Technically the yellow metal is heavily oversold. We do not rule out a correction on profit taking. We hold the view that gold prices will struggle to climb north to the 1190-1195 region. The next probable bullish target is 1200 dollars per ounce.
 
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Brent
 
General overview
 
Oil prices touched 2 week peaks, however, failed to retake the level. The further Brent advance was capped by the growing concerns over rising US production.
 
Current situation
 
After a jump on Thursday Brent oil prices were on neutral-to-bearish stance in the night. Traders found a solid resistance at 56.50 dollars per barrel and spent the Asian session just below the level. A fresh selling interest emerged in the late European trades. Sellers drove the price to 55.50 ahead of the NY session opening. The price tested its moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The spot remained above the 50, 100 and 200-EMAs during the day. The moving averages remained mixed and flat in the same chart. The resistance lies at 56.50, the support comes in at 55.50 dollars per barrel.
 
MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. The RSI left the overvalued readings and headed south.
 
Trading recommendations
 
As the most probable scenario, we consider further moving downwards towards the levels at 55.50 and 54.50 dollars per barrel.
 
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DAX
 
General overview
 
European stocks edged lower amid weak corporate earnings.
 
Current situation
 
After posting fresh weekly peaks at 11900 the index rolled back and returned to 11800. We guess DAX fell on profit taking on Thursday as the overall picture remained bullish. After touching the level the price remained around it the second part of the day. The benchmark continued developing well above its moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages kept heading higher in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance exists at 11900, the support stands at 11800.
 
MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. The RSI indicator consolidated within overvalued readings. 
 
Trading recommendations
 
We believe that a downmove will start as soon, as the index drops below the support level 11800. DAX may extend its decline to the 11700 region.
 
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NASDAQ
 
General overview
 
Wall Street traded flat ahead of U.S GDP data. Moreover, investors took a pause after Dow's recent rally.
 
Current situation
 
NASDAQ gave up its fresh all times highs and rolled back in the Asian session on Friday. The benchmark reached 5140 where the price found fresh bids and rose to 5155. However, a buying impetus lost its legs soon, the benchmark turned around and attacked 5140. The price hovered above its moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50, 100 and 200-EMAs kept heading higher in the same chart. 
The resistance is at 5180, the support comes in at 5140.
 
MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI oscillator remained within overbought levels.
 
Trading recommendations
 
We favor a short-term bearish bias based on profit-taking. A break below 5140 will suggest further weakness towards 5100.
 
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 *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman
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#540
ValdisTF

ValdisTF

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"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.
 
31.01.2017
 
Euro
 
General overview
 
The euro ignored positive GDP in Spain and softened on Monday. Markets eye the upcoming ECB meeting and Consumer Price Index which is expected in green.
Current situation
 
The EUR/USD gapped higher at the daily open on Monday. The price jumped from 1.0700 to 1.0740 in the early Asian trades. The dollar's negative tone however, reversed mid Asian session. Bulls failed to extend their gains and stepped back giving the way to sellers. Bears seized control and pushed the spot back to 1.0700 where the spot traded almost unchanged in the mid-European session. A fresh selling interest emerged before NY opening. The EUR/USD pair made a good break lower and reached 1.0650. The price broke the 50-EMA downwards and tested the 100-EMA in the 4 hours chart in the mid-European trades. The 50 and the 100-EMAs kept heading higher while the 200-EMA remained flat in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is at 1.0700, the .support comes in at 1.0650.
 
MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram enters the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. RSI was within the neutral area and moved south. 
Trading recommendations
 
The 1.0750 resistance needs to be retested before the EUR/USD pair might rally towards 1.8000. However, the spot has all chances to turn bearish now. Should the price fixate below 1.0650 the way towards 1.0550 will be opened.
 
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Pound
 
General overview
 
There was not much to watch on the UK calendar on Monday. All eyes are on the Bank of England on Wednesday.
 
Current situation
 
The GBP/USD gapped higher at the start of the new week. The spot jumped up to 1.2600 where the price met a strong barrier. The major bounced off the hurdle, dropped back towards the opening price сlosing the bullish opening gap. The spot pressured the 1.2500 level in the European session, but failed to retake the handle. The pound hovered above its moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 100-EMA crossed the 200-EMA upwards. The 50 and the 100-EMAs headed north while the 200-EMA was neutral-bearish in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance lies at 1.2600, the support comes in at 1.2500.
 
MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI indicator left the overvalued readings and headed south.
 
Trading recommendations
 
The technical picture favors the downside. Should the 1.2500 level break down it will determine further direction of the GBPUSD pair towards 1.2400.
 
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Yen
 
General overview
 
The US treasury bonds growth helped the US dollar to reverse some losses. Besides, weak Retail Trades in Japan weakened the national currency.
 
Current situation
 
A strong two day rally was capped above 115.00. The US dollar gapped lower vs. its Japanese peer at open on Monday. The greenback jumped from 115.00 to 114.85 and extended its losses afterwards. After finding fresh bids around 114.23 the price turned around and rallied back to the opening price. The spot approached 115.00 in the early European trades but retreated immediately after the level test. The USD/JPY pair stayed a few pips below the level ahead of the NY opening. The price tested the 100-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The spot remained around the 100-EMA after testing the moving. The 100 and the 200-EMAs were flat while the 50 pointed higher in the same chart. The resistance is highlighted at 115.00, the support comes in at 114.00.
 
MACD traded to the upside. The RSI was within the overvalued readings close to the neutral territory.
 
Trading recommendations
 
Bullish near-term studies support further upside sentiment. A firm break above 115.00 handle would open 116.00.
 
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USD/CAD
 
General overview
 
Investors’ attention now turns to GDP which will be published on Wednesday. Meanwhile oil prices decline weighed on the commodity-linked currency – Lonnie. Moreover, Quebec mosque terrorist attack on Sunday weighed a bit on the Canadian Dollar.
 
Current situation
 
The greenback extended its near-term bullish momentum on Monday. After a brief consolidation during the Asian hours the US dollar moved upwards. The pair accelerated its growth in early Europe trades heading towards 1.3190. However, the upside momentum was halted at 1.3158 where the major remained ahead of NA opening. According to the 4 hours chart the spot stayed below its moving averages. The 50-EMA crossed the 100-EMA upwards. The 50 and the 200-EMAs were neutral while the 100-EMA headed downwards in the same chart. The resistance is highlighted at 1.3190, the support comes in at 1.3120.
 
MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. The RSI was within the neutral area. 
 
Trading recommendations
 
All eyes are right now at the support level 1.3120. A cut through here will turn attention to the 1.3090 mark. En route to 1.3050.
 
12773954.jpg
 
XAU/USD
 
General overview
 
Precious metal is in demand in the light of Trump’s moves. The US President banned travelers from seven Muslim countries from entering the USA.
 
Current situation
 
Friday’s recovery stalled at 1195 dollars per ounce. After reaching the mark the precious metal reversed its direction and moved lower. Gold prices touched the level 1190 at the start of European trades and stayed around the level ahead of the North American session open. The price bounced off the 100-EMA and stayed below the 50 and the 100-EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The 100-EMA and the 200-EMA were neutral while the 50-EMA pointed lower in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance exists at 1190, the support stands at 1180 dollars per ounce.
 
MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI left the neutral territory and moved south.
 
Trading recommendations
 
A move below 1190 would indicate that immediate upward pressure eased. The next level to focus on is 1180 dollars per ounce.
 
12721731.jpg
 
Brent
 
General overview
 
Rising US production continued weighing on oil prices. Besides, a growing number of the US rigs added some downbeat tone in the commodity.
 
Current situation
 
Oil prices remained in its familiar range on Monday. The price stayed range bound to higher between 55.50 and 55.15 during the day. The 4 hours chart showed that the price broke its moving averages upwards. The 50 and the 100-EMAs crossed the 200-EMA downwards. The 50 and the 100-EMAs were bearish while the 200-EMA remained neutral in the same chart. The resistance lies at 55.50, the support comes in at 54.50 dollars per barrel.
 
MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. The RSI stayed within the oversold readings close to the neutral territory.
 
Trading recommendations
 
Short term bias indicates selling interest. We expect a firm break below 55.50 handle which could trigger fresh weakness for attack at 54.50 dollars per barrel.
 
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DAX
 
General overview
 
World stocks decline dragged European stocks lower. Market participants are concerned about D.Trump's moves as the US President.
 
Current situation
 
The index gapped lower at the weekly open. The price gapped through 11800 and maintained its bearish tone afterwards. The bears tightened grip and sent the rate back towards 11700 handle in the early European trades. The spot hovered above its moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages maintained their bullish slope in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance exists at 11800, the support stands at 11700.
 
MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. The RSI indicator left the overvalued readings favoring a new move lower. 
 
Trading recommendations
 
The immediate risk is still clearly on the downside but we prefer to wait for a daily closing below 11700 before turning bearish. Our first profit target will be 11600.
 
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S&P500
 
General overview
 
US stocks traded lower on Monday following the uncertainty after the recent Trump’s moves over the external policy. Traders are concerned that the future Trump’s policy may impact both the US and the World economies.
 
Current situation
 
S&P500 gapped lower at the open. The price jumped to 2280 which appeared to be a solid barrier. After touching the level the benchmark had to retreat and rolled back to 2285 almost filling the night gap. According to the 4 hours chart the benchmark continued developing well above its moving averages. The moving averages maintained their bullish slope in the same chart. The resistance is at 2300, the support comes in at 2280.
 
MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI oscillator was within the neutral area.
 
Trading recommendations
 
The price eyes strong support at 2280 handle loss of which would trigger further weakness towards 2270 area.
 
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 *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman
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