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#6701
riki143

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AUD/USD outlook for January 23-27
1/20/2017
 
Aussie spiked to 0.7590 in the course of the past week mainly on the relative weakness of the US dollar. Janet Yellen was the main troublemaker. Her recent comments on the future of the Fed’s monetary policy sent the greenback lower on Friday. Australian employment report released on Tuesday was a mixed bag as it indicated a modest increase in the number of jobs created and, at the same time, a heightened unemployment rate. Upbeat China’s gross domestic product allowed Aussie to rise further.
 
Next week the US dollar will be a major mover of the AUD/USD currency pair as there won’t be any significant events and data releases from Australia. Monday’s morning will herald a new era for the USA as soon as Donald Trump gets into power and signs his first executive orders. This can send the US dollar lower. Trump’s effect should influence the pair through the whole week.
 
A number of fundamental factors that we’ve just specified may send Aussie higher towards 0.7660, 0.7650 (78.6 Fibo retracement level formed from the November 8 high) and 0.7780. On the downside, there are several supports located at 0.7500 (100-day MA), 0.7470 (the upper border of Ichimoku cloud), 0.7380 (near the 50-day MA) and 0.7273. 
 
AUDUSDDaily(27).png
 
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#6702
riki143

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GBP/USD outlook for January 23-27
1/20/2017
 
GBP/USD experienced the tremendous uplift in the course of the past week after prime minister Theresa May assured the public that the UK will reap lots of benefits after the country’s separation with the EU. The pound was rising throughout the week and ended it with impressive gains.
 
Next week traders’ focus will be on the UK’s Supreme Court ruling scheduled for January 24. It should clarify whether Government needs to consult Parliament before triggering Article 50 or not. If the court decides that Ms. May doesn’t possess a unilateral right to invoke the aforementioned article, the sterling may get a significant boost and rise further. The US dollar’s outlook is bearish. The greenback risks to tilt downside as the first Trump’s orders come into force.
 
The technical picture for GBP/USD has become bullish. The current GBP strength has room to extend higher towards the nearest resistances located at 1.2400 (50-day MA), 1.2535 (100-day MA) and 1.2715 levels (23.6 Fibo level traced from June 24 high). In the most unlikely, but still probable scenario, the quotes can fall towards the supports located at 1.2245 (January 19 low) and 1.2010 (January 17 low).
 
GBPUSDDaily(30).png
 
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#6703
riki143

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Key option levels for Friday, January 20th
1/20/2017
 
EUR/USD
 
EURUSD(110).png
 
Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bullish Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 149 834 ? - 10 885 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.0682; 1.0708; 1.0733/45; 1.0778
Closest support levels 1.0633; 1.0603; 1.0583; 1.0560
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long EUR/USD above 1.0682, with target points at 1.0708 and 1.0733
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.0633 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.0603 and 1.0583
 
USD/JPY
 
USDJPY(83).png
 
Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 517 ? + 1 584 ?
Closest resistance levels 115.42; 115.77; 116.00; 116.25
Closest support levels 114.42; 114.09; 113.91; 113.69
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short USD/JPY below 114.42, with target points at 114.09 and 113.91
Alternative scenario Moving above 115.42 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 115.77 and 116.00
 
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#6704
riki143

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EUR/USD: "Three Black Crows" arrived
1/20/2017
 
2001eurusdH4.png
 
We’ve got a “Shooting Star”, which has been confirmed. Therefore, the market is likely going to get a support on the nearest “Window” in the short term, which could be a departure point for a local upward correction. However, bears will probably try to test the 55 Moving Average afterwards.
 
2001eurusdH1.png
 
There’re a “Shooting Star” and a “Three Black Crows”, which both have been confirmed enough. In this case, the pair is likely going to reach a support on the 89 Moving Average shortly. If a pullback from this line happens, there’ll be a chance to have a bullish correction.
 
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#6705
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USD/JPY: bulls going to break the last high
1/20/2017
 
2001usdjpyH4.png
 
The price reached the 55 Moving Average, so we’ve got an “Engulfing” on this line, but the pattern hasn’t been confirmed yet. Therefore, the price is likely going to test the nearest resistance in the short term. Considering a possible pullback from this level, there’s an option to have another decline later on.
 
2001usdjpyH1.png
 
There’s a “Tweezers”, which has been confirmed enough. So, the market is likely going to test the 13 Moving Average soon, which could be a departure point to a local upward price movement.
 
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#6706
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EUR/USD: wave 2 is on the way
1/20/2017
 
Image20170120162012001.png
 
There’s a bearish wedge in wave 1, which has been finished on 1/8 MM Level. Also we’ve got another wedge in wave [a], so wave 2 is likely going to be continued. Therefore, there’s an opportunity to have wave [b] in the short term.
 
Image20170120162012002.png
 
As we can see on the one-hour chart, wave (B) ended yesterday, so the price is declining in wave © of [b]. The main intraday target is 4/8 MM Level, which could be a departure point for another bullish wave.
 
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#6707
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USD/CAD rising inside intermediate impulse wave (3)
1/20/2017
 
USD/CAD rising inside intermediate impulse wave (3)
Next buy target – 1.3450
USD/CAD has been rising sharply in the last trading sessions inside the intermediate impulse wave (3) – which started earlier – when the pair reversed up from the support zone lying between the support levels 1.3100 and 1.3020 (which reversed earlier waves 4 and A) and the lower daily Bollinger Band.
 
The upward reversal from the aforementioned support zone created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Bullish Engulfing.  USD/CAD is expected to rise further toward the next buy target at the resistance level 1.3450.
 
USDCAD_-_Primary_Analysis_-_Jan-20_1545_
 
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#6708
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EUR/AUD reached sell target 1.4100
1/20/2017
 
EUR/AUD reached sell target 1.4100
Next buy target - 1.4300
EUR/AUD continues to rise after the recent upward reversal from the strong support level 1.4100 (which stopped the previous waves (a), 1, a, b and which was set as the sell target in our previous forecast for this currency pair).  The support zone near the support level 1.4100 was strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band.
 
Given the strength of the support level 1.4100, EUR/AUD is expected to rise further toward the next buy target at the next resistance levels 1.4300 (intersecting with the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the earlier downward impulse from December).
 
EURAUD_-_Primary_Analysis_-_Jan-20_1545_
 
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