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#6621
riki143

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EUR/CAD falling inside minor impulse wave 3
1/11/2017
 
EUR/CAD falling inside minor impulse wave 3
Next sell target - 1.3830
EUR/CAD has been falling sharply in the last few trading sessions inside the minor impulse wave 3, which started earlier from the resistance zone lying between the resistance levels 1.4400 and 1.4300, upper daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci correction level of the previous sharp downward impulse from November.
 
EUR/CAD is expected to fall further in the active impulse waves 3 and © toward the next sell target at the support level 1.3830 (which stopped the previous minor impulse wave 1 in December). The pair is likely to correct up after reaching the support level 1.3830.
 
EURCAD_-_Primary_Analysis_-_Jan-11_1453_
 
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#6622
riki143

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EUR/AUD reached sell target 1.4300
1/11/2017
 
EUR/AUD reached sell target 1.4300
Next sell target - 1.4100 
EUR/AUD continues to fall after the recent breakout of the support level 1.4300, which was set as the sell target in our previous forecast for this currency pair. The breakout of this support level accelerated the active minor impulse wave 3, which belongs to the extended intermediate impulse wave © from the middle of September. 
 
EUR/AUD is expected fall further in the direction of the next sell target at the powerful support level 1.4100 (which reversed the previous waves (a), 1 and (B), as can be seen from the daily EUR/AUD chart below.). Sell stop-loss can be placed above the aforementioned price level 1.4300.
 
EURAUD_-_Primary_Analysis_-_Jan-11_1450_
 
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#6623
riki143

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EUR/USD after Donald Trump's press conference: temporary weakness on the USD?
1/12/2017
 
Donald Trump’s press conference helped to smash the US Dollar across the board, as the US president-elect didn’t say anything about key topics that investors were looking for. Trump kept its pro-Putin’s rhetoric and his promice to build a wall across the Mexico-USA border. Such comments favored to weaken the Mexican peso against the greenback and in the case of major pairs, all competitors won ground against the USD, as it was heavily sold during and after the press briefing from the Trump Tower in NY.
 
Our technical analysis at EUR/USD for H1 chart still keeps a bullish-recovery tone in the short-term, as the pair managed to rebound above the 200 SMA and if it does a breakout above the 1.0603 level, then it can test the 1.0655 zone. However, that resistance area could help to cap further gains in the pair and eventually, we can witness a strong pullback to test levels below the moving average mentioned above.
 
EURUSDH1(19).png
 
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#6624
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USD/CHF: bears are hogging the cover
1/12/2017
 
On the daily USD/CHF chart, bears made another attack aiming to lead the pair outside of the rising channel. If they succeed, the test of support at 1.0025 will trigger the "Shark" pattern. Its 88.6% target is situated near 0.9625.  
 
Screenshot_2017_01_12_07_59_07.png
 
On H1, USD/CHF keeps forming the widening wedge pattern. Pay attention to the fact that 161.8% target of AB=CD shows that point 5 will be formed near the parity. The following retracement to 23.6%, 38.2% and 50% of the wave 4-5 is usually used for opening short positions.
 
Screenshot_2017_01_12_07_59_21.png
 
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#6625
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GBP/USD recovered from the bottom
1/12/2017
 
On the daily GBP/USD chart, the pair rebounded from the lower border of the downtrend channel. The pair's currently fighting for the important level of 1.2207 (23.6% of the last bearish wave). The bulls' victory will increase the risks of growth towards 1.2317 and 1.2405.
 
Screenshot_2017_01_12_07_58_36.png
 
On H1, GBP/USD emerged from the short-term downtrend channel. Rising wedge pattern with the following return to 23.6% and 38.2% and rebound increases the possibility of continuation to the upside towards 1.24 (88.6% target of the "Shark" pattern).
 
Screenshot_2017_01_12_07_58_53.png
 
Recommendation: BUY 1.2216 SL 1.2161 TP 1.2400. 
 
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#6626
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EUR/USD: bulls going to test resistance
1/12/2017
 
12-1-2017-EUR-H4.png
 
We’ve got a “Thorn” pattern, which stopped the last bearish price movement. So, the pair is trying to break a resistance at 1.0594 – 1.0655. It’s likely that bulls are going to reach the next resistance at 1.0669 – 1.0689. If a pullback from this area happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a correction towards the 89 Moving Average.
 
12-1-2017-EUR-H1.png
 
Bulls faced a resistance at 1.0620, so the price is consolidating. Meanwhile, the market is likely going to test the next resistance at 1.0669 – 1.0689 during the day. Considering a possible pullback from these levels, there’s a chance to have a decline towards a support at 1.0575 – 1.0552 later on.
 
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#6627
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GBP/USD: "V-Bottom" stopped bears
1/12/2107
 
12-1-2017-GBP-H4.png
 
The main trend is still bearish, but the price is likely going to test the nearest resistance between the levels 1.2270 – 1.2309. If we see a pullback from this area, bears will probably try to test the closest support at 1.2198 – 1.2170.
 
12-1-2017-GBP-H1.png
 
The price faced a resistance at 1.2269, so we’ve got a “V-Top” pattern, which led to a consolidation between a resistance at 1.2219 and a support at 1.2170. Nevertheless, bulls are likely going to test the nest resistance at 1.2309, which is strengthened by the local downtrend. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a decline in the direction of a support at 1.2198 – 1.2170.
 
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#6628
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Key option levels for Thursday, January 12th
1/12/2017
 
EUR/USD
 
EURUSD(104).png
 
Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 59 778 ? + 78 859 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.0657; 1.0681; 1.0714; 1.0756
Closest support levels 1.0591; 1.0555; 1.0529; 1.0494
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.0591, with target points at 1.0555 and 1.0529
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.0657 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0681 and 1.0714
 
GBP/USD
 
GBPUSD(93).png
 
Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bullish Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 549 ? + 194 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.2247; 1.2277; 1.2303; 1.2338
Closest support levels 1.2176; 1.2149; 1.2112; 1.2089
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long GBP/USD above 1.2247, with target points at 1.2277 and 1.2303
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.2176 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.2149 and 1.2112
 
USD/CAD
 
USDCAD(88).png
 
Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Bullish
Changes in the open interest + 344 ? + 738 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.3163; 1.3212; 1.3240; 1.3280
Closest support levels 1.3106; 1.3079; 1.3041; 1.2995
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario (High risk of reversal) Short USD/CAD below 1.3106, with the target points at 1.3079 and 1.3041
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.3163 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.3212 and 1.3240
 
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#6629
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GBP/USD: under the Cloud
1/12/2017
 
Technical levels: support – 1.2215; resistance – 1.2330.
 
Trade recommendations:
 
1. Sell — 1.2330; SL — 1.2350; TP1 — 1.2215; TP2 — 1.2160.
 
Reason: bearish Ichimoku Cloud; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, but Tenkan-sen is rising; the prices are under the strong resistance of Senkou Span A.
 
02-gbpusdh4(62).png
 
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#6630
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AUD/USD: market is overbought
1/12/2017
 
Technical levels: support – 0.7450, 0.7410; resistance – 0.7525/45.
 
Trade recommendations:
 
1. Sell — 0.7530; SL — 0.7550; TP1 — 0.7450; TP2 — 0.7410.
 
Reason: bearish Ichimoku Cloud the rising Senkou Span A and B; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen and rising lines; but the market is overbought and the prices are under the strong resistance.
 
03-audusdh4(67).png
 
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#6631
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EUR/USD: pullback from the "Window"
1/12/2017
 
1201eurusdH4.png
 
The price reached the upper “Window”, so we’ve got a “Harami” here. If this pattern confirms, bears are likely going to test the 13 Moving Average, which could be a departure point for another bullish rally.
 
1201eurusdH1.png
 
We’ve got a “Hanging Man” at the local high, which is likely going to be confirmed in the coming hours. Therefore, there’s an opportunity to have a bearish correction. In this case, we should keep an eye on the 55 Moving Average as a possible intraday target. 
 
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#6632
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USD/JPY: bears going to move on
1/12/2017
 
1201usdjpyH4.png
 
There’s a “Shooting Star” on the 21 Moving Average, which has been confirmed enough. Considering that we don’t have any reversal pattern here, the market is likely going to continue falling down towards the nearest support level.
 
1201usdjpyH1.png
 
The last “Three Methods” led to the current decline. However, there’s a bullish “Inverted Hammer”, so the price is likely going to test the nearest resistance. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an open door for a new low.
 
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#6633
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EUR/USD: zigzag in wave 2
1/12/2017
 
Image20170112161834001.png
 
There’re four pullbacks in a row from 1/8 MM Level, so the price is rising. In this case, wave 2 is likely going to be continued. The main intraday target is 4/8 MM Level, which could act as a resistance.
 
Image20170112161834002.png
 
As we can see on the one-hour chart, wave 2 is taking form of a zigzag. Therefore, a bullish impulse in wave [c] is likely going to move on. So, we should keep an eye on 8/8 MM Level as a possible intraday target. 
 
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#6634
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NZD/USD broke resistance zone
1/12/2017
 
NZD/USD broke resistance zone
Next buy target - 0.7230
NZD/USD continues to rise after the recent breakout of the resistance zone lying between the resistance level 0.7100 (previous buy target set in our previous forecast for this currency pair), 61.8% Fibonacci correction level of the earlier sharp minor impulse wave 3 from the middle of December, 50-day moving average and the resistance trendline of the daily Falling Wedge from October.
 
NZD/USD is expected rise further in the active minor corrective wave 4 in the direction of the next buy target at the resistance level 0.7230 (which stopped the previous minor correction 2 in December, as can be seen below).
 
NZDUSD_-_Primary_Analysis_-_Jan-12_1557_
 
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#6635
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AUD/USD reached buy target 0.7400
1/12/2017
 
AUD/USD reached buy target 0.7400
Next buy target - 0.7520
AUD/USD continues to rise strongly after the recent breakout of the resistance level 0.7400, which was set as the buy target in our previous forecast for this currency pair. The breakout of this resistance level accelerated the active intermediate impulse wave (3), which started with the weekly Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Morning Star from the powerful support level 0.7150.
 
AUD/USD is expected rise further in the direction of the next buy target at the resistance level 0.7520 (which reversed the price in December) – the breakout of which can lead to further gains toward the next buy target 0.76140.
 
AUDUSD_-_Primary_Analysis_-_Jan-12_1549_
 
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#6636
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USD/JPY: bears are running out of power
1/13/2017
 
On the daily USD/JPY chart, 88.6% target of the "Bat" pattern and 23.6% Fibo of the last long-term bullish wave managed to stop the bears for a while. To develop correction they need to pull the prices below convergence area of 113.60-114.00. On the other hand, successful test of yesterday's pin bar high (115.55) will increase the risks of uptrend resumption.
 
Screenshot_2017_01_13_08_11_58.png
 
On H1, USD/JPY keeps forming Wolfe waves. The pair's return to the bar's high, marked by point 3, will be a signal for opening long positions. Use 78.6% and 88.6% correction levels of the wave 2-5 as targets.
 
Screenshot_2017_01_13_08_12_12.png
 
Recommendation: BUY 115,55 SL 115 TP1 117,77 TP2 118,05. 
 
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#6637
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EUR/USD: bulls have stopped
1/13/2017
 
On the daily EUR/USD chart, the bulls managed to leave the medium-term descending channel but met resistance located at 1.0638 (23.6% Fibo of the last bearish wave). Despite the recent success of the euro, sellers are keeping the pair under control, so traders should focus on short positions.
 
Screenshot_2017_01_13_08_04_28.png
 
On H1, EUR/USD continues to form the widening wedge pattern. Aggressive entry would mean a short on the break of the bar's low,  marked by point 2. Conservative entry requires the pair's decline to the point 3.
 
Screenshot_2017_01_13_08_04_51.png
 
Recommendation: SELL 1,0603 SL 1,0658 TP1 1,045 TP2 1,037.  
 
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#6638
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EUR/USD: "Triple Top" stopped bullish rally
1/13/2017
 
13-1-2017-EUR-H4.png
 
The price faced a resistance at 1.0689, which led to form a “V-Top” pattern, so the market is likely going to get a support between the 89 Moving Average and the level 1.0551. If a pullback from this area happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another bullish movement towards a resistance between the levels 1.0689 – 1.0745.
 
13-1-2017-EUR-H1.png
 
We’ve got a “Triple Top”, which has been confirmed, so the price is consolidating above the 34 Moving Average. Therefore, the pair is likely going to test a support at 1.0575 – 1.0551 in the short term. If we see a pullback from these levels, bulls will probably try to reach the nearest resistance at 1.0697 – 1.0709.
 
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#6639
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GBP/USD: Moving Average acted as resistance again
1/13/2017
 
13-1-2017-GBP-H4.png
 
The main trend is still bearish. Also, there’s a “Double Top”, which has been formed under a resistance at 1.2309. So, the market is likely going to test the nearest support at 1.2113 – 1.2081 in the short term. At the same time, there’s an opportunity to have another bullish price movement afterwards. 
 
13-1-2017-GBP-H1.png
 
The price found a support at 1.2142, which led to the current consolidation. Meanwhile, bears are likely going to test the closest support at 1.2113 – 1.2081 during the day. Considering a possible pullback from this area, there’s a chance to see an upward movement towards a resistance near the downtrend later on.
 
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#6640
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Key option levels for Friday, January 13th
1/13/2017
 
EUR/USD
 
EURUSD(105).png
 
Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 75 055 ? + 84 219 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.0652; 1.0679/85; 1.0712
Closest support levels 1.0616; 1.0595; 1.0566; 1.0526
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.0616, with target points at 1.0595 and 1.0566
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.0652 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0679 and 1.0712
 
GBP/USD
 
GBPUSD(94).png
 
Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 342 ? + 687 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.2209; 1.2248; 1.2278; 1.2296
Closest support levels 1.2138; 1.2115; 1.2082; 1.2062
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short GBP/USD below 1.2138, with target points at 1.2115 and 1.2082
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.2209 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.2248 and 1.2278
 
USD/CAD
 
USDCAD(89).png
 
Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Bullish
Changes in the open interest + 303 ? - 164 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.3120; 1.3180; 1.3214; 1.3259
Closest support levels 1.3101; 1.3075; 1.3053; 1.3021
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario (High risk of reversal) Long USD/CAD above 1.3120, with the target points at 1.3180 and 1.3214
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3101 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.3075 and 1.3053
 
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