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#6601
riki143

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AUD/USD & Retail Sales: A decline is coming soon in the Aussie?
1/10/2017
 
Today at 00:30 GMT will be released the Australian Retail Sales for November and there are expectations of a slight decrease to 0.4% from the 0.5% posted on October, which beats the forecasts that put the data on 0.3%. Because of the nature of the event, we can expect some volatility on the AUD-related pairs, as a negative data should help to pressure the Australian Dollar to test key support levels against its competitors.
 
Our technical analysis for AUD/USD at H1 chart has detected a trend line channel formation that favors to the bulls in the mid-term. However, the pair could start to correct its main bullish bias and eventually it can plunge towards the 0.7332 level. If data comes in weaker than expected, then a decline to test the 0.7290 level is likely to happen. The 200 SMA is supporting the overall bullish scenario across the board.
 
AUDUSDH1(1).png
 
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#6602
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Gold: bulls met resistance
1/10/2017
 
On the daily chart, gold is correcting towards the descending medium-term trend. If the bulls manage to settle above resistance at $1184 an ounce, the risks of increase towards $1220 will grow. On the other hand, recoil will let the bears gather strength for the counterattack.  
 
Screenshot_2017_01_10_08_54_45.png
 
On H1 the necessary condition for the reversal of the short-term uptrend is the break below support at $1171 an ounce. This will trigger the "Shark" pattern. Its 88.6% target lies near $1152.
 
Screenshot_2017_01_10_08_55_00.png
 
Recommendation: SELL $1171 SL $1186 TP1 $1152 TP2 $1142. 
 
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#6603
riki143

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USD/JPY: bears have launched an attack
1/10/2017
 
On the daily USD/JPY chart, the bears are trying to achieve a correction. They managed to trigger the "Double top" pattern for the second time and pull the pair towards 113.50-114.00. However, the sellers first need to make the greenback dip below 114.70. The nearest resistance is near 116.10.
 
Screenshot_2017_01_10_08_54_17.png
 
On H1, USD/JPY keeps forming a "widening wedge" pattern. The pair's recoil towards 61.8% of the wave 4-5 let the bears form short positions. The following return to January low will increase the risk of the fall towards 113.6. On the other hand, successful test of 116.1 will return the pair inside the medium-term consolidation range 116.1-118.5.
 
Screenshot_2017_01_10_08_54_32.png
 
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#6604
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EUR/USD: bulls broke the high
1/10/2017
 
[IMG]https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articles/11986/10-1-2017-EUR-H4.png[/IMG
 
Bears faced a support at 1.0504, which is strengthened by the 55 & 34 Moving Averages. Also, there’s a local “V-Bottom” pattern, so the price retraced up. The main intraday target is a resistance at 1.0655 – 1.0669. If a pullback from this area happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another decline.
 
10-1-2017-EUR-H1.png
 
The last downtrend has been broken, so the pair found a resistance at 1.0628. However, we’ve got a “V-Top” pattern. In this case, the market is likely going to test a support at 1.0575 in the short term. Considering a possible pullback from this level, bulls will probably try to reach a resistance at 1.0650 – 1.0669 afterwards.
 
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#6605
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GBP/USD: bearish "Pennant"
1/10/2017
 
10-1-2017-GBP-H4.png
 
The main trend is still bearish. The price faced a support at 1.2113, so bulls are trying to set up an upward correction. If we see any bearish pattern in the coming hours, the market is likely going to test the next support at 1.2081. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be a chance to have a correction towards the nearest resistance at 1.2198 – 1.2227.
 
10-1-2017-GBP-H1.png
 
As we can see on the one-hour chart, bears found a support at 1.2113, so the price is consolidating. Also, there’s a “Pennant” pattern”, so the pair is likely going to test another support at 1.2081 during the day. If we see a pullback from this level, bulls will probably try to deliver an upward correction.
 
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#6606
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AUD/USD: bulls are broke through SSB resistance
1/10/2017
 
Technical levels: support – 0.7340; resistance – 0.7430.
 
Trade recommendations:
 
1. Buy — 0.7360; SL — 0.7340; TP1 — 0.7415; TP2 — 0.7430.
 
Reason: bearish Ichimoku Cloud, but the rising Senkou Span A and the narrowing cloud’s range; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen and rising lines; the prices are breaking out the SBB resistance.
 
03-audusdh4(66).png
 
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#6607
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USD/JPY: the Dollar is loosing its positions again
1/10/2017
 
Technical levels: support – 115.40, 115.15; resistance – 115.90, 116.30.
 
Trade recommendations:
 
1. Sell — 116.30; SL — 116.50; TP1 — 115.40; TP2 — 115.15.
 
Reason: bearish Ichimoku Cloud, falling Senkou Span A and expanding cloud; a dead cross of falling Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are under Senkou Span B.
 
04-usdjpyh4(66).png
 
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#6608
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Key option levels for Tuesday, January 10th
1/10/2017
 
EUR/USD
 
EURUSD(102).png
 
Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 116 042 ? + 124 456 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.0608; 1.0629; 1.0659; 1.0683
Closest support levels 1.0574; 1.0557; 1.0532; 1.0496
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.0574, with target points at 1.0557 and 1.0532
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.0608 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0629 and 1.0659
 
GBP/USD
 
GBPUSD(92).png
 
Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 352 ? + 1 446 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.2206; 1.2240; 1.2269; 1.2287
Closest support levels 1.2144; 1.2123; 1.2091; 1.2071
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short GBP/USD below 1.2144, with target points at 1.2123 and 1.2091
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.2206 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.2240 and 1.2269
 
USD/JPY
 
USDJPY(81).png
 
Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 547 ? + 479 ?
Closest resistance levels 116.09; 116.39/50; 116.78; 116.96
Closest support levels 115.27; 114.82; 114.61; 114.38
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long USD/JPY above 116.09, with the target points at 116.39 and 116.78
Alternative scenario Moving below 115.27 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 114.82 and  114.61
 
USD/CAD
 
USDCAD(86).png
 
Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Bullish
Changes in the open interest + 283 ? + 252 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.3221; 1.3254; 1.3277; 1.3308
Closest support levels 1.3210; 1.3187; 1.3146; 1.3113
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long USD/CAD above 1.3221, with the target points at 1.3254 and 1.3277
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3210 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.3187 and 1.3146
 
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#6609
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EUR/USD: resistance by 3/8 MM Level
1/10/2017
 
Image20170110132138001.png
 
We’ve got the third pullback from 3/8 MM Level in a row, so there’s an opportunity to have another bearish impulse in wave (iii). However, this wave count requires a confirmation, which could be a lodgement under 2/8 MM Level.
 
Image20170110132138002.png
 
As we can see on the one-hour chart, there’s a resistance by 8/8 MM Level. Wave (ii) has been formed like a double zigzag. In this case, bears are likely going to deliver wave i in the short term. The main intraday target is 4/8 MM Level.
 
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#6610
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EUR/USD: "Shooting Star" set up bearish correction
 
1001eurusdH4.png
 
The last “Tower” and “Engulfing” patterns are still on the table. Also, there’s a bearish “Harami”, so the 13 Moving Average is likely going to act as a support. If we see any bullish pattern on this line, bulls will probably try to test the nearest “Window” once again.
 
1001eurusdH1.png
 
Bulls has almost achieved the upper “Window”, so the price is declining. Meanwhile, we’ve got a “Shooting Star” at the last high, which has been confirmed enough. Therefore, the market is likely going to test the closest support by the last “Three Methods” pattern.
 
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#6611
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USD/JPY: bullish "Three White Soldiers"
1/10/2017
 
1001usdjpyH4.png
 
We’ve got an “Engulfing” and a “Three Black Crows” at the last high, which both have been confirmed. However, there’s a bullish “Harami” at the local low, but this pattern doesn’t have a confirmation. So, if the 13 Moving Average acts as a resistance, there’ll be an opportunity to have another decline.
 
1001usdjpyH1.png
 
There’s a “Three Methods” pattern, which led to the last decline. At the same time, we’ve got a “Harami” and a “Three White Soldiers”, so the price is likely going to test the nearest resistance. If we see a pullback from this level, bears will probably try to deliver a local downward price movement.
 
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#6612
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USD/CAD ahead of Crude Oil Inventories: Can we expect another selling's wave?
1/11/2017
 
The oil has been on the wires during the last weeks and during yesterday’s session, we saw a decline in the prices per barrel. Today we’ll have a key event at 15:30 GMT with the Crude Oil Inventories from the US. Market’s consensus is calling for an increase of about 0.9M in stockpiles, which is a data higher than the last week’s draw of -7.1M. If data comes in better than expected, CAD should strengthen across the board against its major competitors.
 
Our technical view for USD/CAD at H1 chart remains bearish as the pair continues to trade below the 200 SMA at H1 chart, as well as below the bearish trend line plotted from December 28th highs. We can expect a strong breakout below the support level of 1.3200 if Oil’s data comes in better-than-expected, with a near-term target around 1.3100, while a weak data or within the expectations should send the Loonie to test the 1.3280 level, which is near to the trend line mentioned above.
 
USDCADH1(4).png
 
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#6613
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EUR/USD: bears going to test the next support
1/11/2017
 
11-1-2017-EUR-H4.png
 
We’ve got a new local high on the four-hours chart. Also, there’s a “V-Top” pattern, so the price reached a support at 1.0552. However, bears are likely going to continue pushing the price lower, so we should keep an eye on the next support at 1.0524 – 1.0504 as a possible intraday target. If a pullback from this area happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another bullish price movement.
 
11-1-2017-EUR-H1.png
 
The price has broken a local uptrend, which led to the current consolidation. The 55 Moving Average acted as a support, but the pair is likely going to reach the next support at 1.0524 – 1.0504 in the short term. Considering a possible pullback from these levels, bulls will probably try to test a resistance at 1.0620 – 1.0626 later on.
 
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#6614
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GBP/USD: correction going to move on
1/11/2017
 
11-1-2017-GBP-H4.png
 
The main trend is still bearish. The price is consolidating between a support at 1.2113 and a resistance at 1.2198. So, the market is likely going to decline towards a support at 1.2081. If we see a pullback from this level, there’ll be an option to have an upward movement in the direction of the nearest resistance at 1.2198 – 1.2227.
 
11-1-2017-GBP-H1.png
 
There’s a consolidation, which is taking place above a support at 1.2113. Considering a resistance at 1.2198, bears are likely gong to test a support at 1.2106 – 1.2081 during the day. If a pullback from this area be on the table, bulls will have a chance to test a resistance at 1.2219.
 
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#6615
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EUR/USD: bulls can’t overcome the SSB resistance
1/11/2017
 
Technical levels: support – 1.0500, 1.0530; resistance – 1.0610, 1.0650/60.
 
Trade recommendations:
 
1. Buy — 1.0550; SL — 1.0530; TP1 — 1.0650; TP2 – 1.0690.
 
Reason: bullish mood of the Ichimoku Cloud, but horizontal Senkou Span A and B; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are still in the Cloud; the strong support of and Kijun-sen and the weak resistance of Senkou Span B.
 
01-eurusdh4(78).png
 
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#6616
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GBP/USD: Pound may correct deeper
1/11/2017
 
Technical levels: support – 1.2150; resistance – 1.2230, 1.2270, 1.2330.
 
Trade recommendations:
 
1. Buy — 1.2170; SL — 1.2150; TP1 — 1.2230; TP2 — 1.2270.
 
2. Sell — 1.2270; SL — 1.2290; TP1 — 1.2150; TP2 — 1.2110.
 
Reason: expanding bearish Ichimoku Cloud; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are in the correctional movement and in the channel of Tenkan and Kijun.
 
02-gbpusdh4(61).png
 
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#6617
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Key option levels for Wednesday, January 11th
1/11/2017
 
EUR/USD
 
EURUSD(103).png
 
Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 129 660 ? + 19 362 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.0588; 1.0610; 1.0641; 1.0666
Closest support levels 1.0543; 1.0520; 1.0487; 1.0467
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario (High risk of reversal) Long EUR/USD above 1.0588, with target points at 1.0610 and 1.0641
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.0543 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.0520 and 1.0487
 
USD/CAD
 
USDCAD(87).png
 
Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Bullish
Changes in the open interest + 298 ? + 222 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.3222; 1.3252; 1.3275; 1.3307
Closest support levels 1.3214; 1.3191; 1.3151; 1.3118
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long USD/CAD above 1.3222, with the target points at 1.3252 and 1.3275
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3214 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.3191and 1.3151
 
AUD/USD
 
AUDUSD(3).png
 
Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 224 ? + 38 ?
Closest resistance levels 0.7382; 0.7408; 0.7428; 0.7454
Closest support levels 0.7349; 0.7321; 0.7279; 0.7249
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short AUD/USD below 0.7349, with the target points at 0.7321 and 0.7279
Alternative scenario Moving above 0.7382 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 0.7408 and 0.7428
 
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#6618
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EUR/USD: bears broke "Window"
1/11/2017
 
1101eurusdH4.png
 
We’ve got a “Tower”, an “Engulfing” and a “Harami”, which all have been confirmed enough. Therefore, the market is likely going to continue falling down towards the nearest support. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another bullish rally.
 
1101eurusdH1.png
 
There’s a bearish “Tweezers”, so the price reached the 144 Moving Average. If this line acts as a support, bulls are likely going to deliver an upward correction. However, there’s an option to have another decline later on.
 
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#6619
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USD/JPY: "Window" going to act as a resistance
1/11/2017
 
1101usdjpyH4.png
 
We’ve got an “Inverted Hammer” and a “Harami”, which both have been confirmed. In this case, the market is likely going to test the upper “Window” in the short term. If a pullback from this level happens, bears will probably try to deliver another decline.
 
1101usdjpyH1.png
 
There’s a bullish “Three Methods”, which led to a new high. Previously, a “Three White Soldiers” has been formed. Under this circumstances, the pair is likely going to test the nearest “Window”, which could be a departure point for a new downward price movement.
 
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#6620
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EUR/USD: wave i of (iii) is on the way
1/11/2017
 
Image20170111142834001.png
 
The price has been declining since a pullback from 3/8 MM Level happened. Therefore, bears are likely going to deliver wave (iii) in the short term. In this case, we could have a new low soon.
 
Image20170111142834002.png
 
As we can see on the one-hour chart, wave (ii) formed like a double zigzag, so the price is declining in wave i of (iii). The main intraday target is 3/8 MM Level, which could be a departure point for wave ii of (iii).
 
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