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#6581
riki143

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USD/JPY: bears tested SSB’s support
1/6/2017
 
Technical levels: support – 115.80, 115.15; resistance – 116.40, 116.80.
 
Trade recommendations:
 
1. Sell — 116.80; SL — 117.00; TP1 — 115.80; TP2 — 115.15.
 
Reason: narrowing bullish Ichimoku Cloud, falling Senkou Span A; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are on the SSB’s support.
 
04-usdjpyh4(65).png
 
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#6582
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EUR/USD: "Window" going to act as a resistance
1/6/2017
 
0601eurusdD.png
 
We’ve got a “High Wave” and an “Engulfing”, which both have been confirmed. So, the price is likely going to test the 34 Moving Average in the short term. If a pullback from this line happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a local decline towards the nearest support level.
 
0601eurusdh4.png
 
The last “Engulfing” pattern hasn’t been confirmed, so bulls are likely going to get a resistance on the closest “Window”. If we see any bearish pattern on this level afterwards, bears will probably try to deliver a downward correction.
 
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#6583
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NZD/USD broke resistance level 0.698
1/6/2017
 
NZD/USD broke resistance level 0.6980
Next buy target - 0.7100
NZD/USD continues to rise strongly inside the c-wave of the minor ABC correction 4 from the end of December. The price earlier broke through the resistance level 0.6980 (top of the previous a-wave of the active ABC correction 4). The breakout of the resistance level 0.6980 intensified the bullish pressure on this currency pair.
 
NZD/USD is expected to rise further to the next buy target at the resistance level 0.7100 (target price calculated for the termination of the active wave 4, coinciding with the 61.8% Fibonacci correction level of the previous sharp downward impulse wave 3 from December).
 
NZDUSD_-_Primary_Analysis_-_Jan-06_1252_
 
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#6584
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AUD/USD reached buy target 0.7320
1/6/2017
 
AUD/USD reached buy target 0.7320
Next buy target - 1.0060 
AUD/USD continues to rise sharply after the recent breakout of the resistance level 0.7320 (which was set as the buy target in our earlier forecast for this currency pair). The breakout of this resistance level accelerated the active minor impulse wave 3, which belongs to the intermediate impulse wave (3) from the end of December (which started from the strong support level 0.7150).
 
AUD/USD is expected to rise further in the direction of the next buy target at the resistance level 0.7400 (standing close to the 38.2% Fibonacci correction level of the previous sharp downward C-wave from the start of November).
 
AUDUSD_-_Primary_Analysis_-_Jan-06_1249_
 
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#6585
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EUR/USD: zigzag in wave (ii)
1/6/2017
 
Image20170106144941001.png
 
Wave (ii) seems to be ended, so if we have a pullback from 3/8 MM Level, there’ll be an opportunity to have another bearish impulse in wave (iii). The main intraday target is still -1/8 MM Level.
 
Image20170106144941002.png
 
As we can see on the one-hour chart, wave (ii) took form of a zigzag. Previously, downward wave (i) has been formed. In this case, bears are likely going to deliver a bearish impulse in wave i.
 
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#6586
riki143

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USD/JPY: bears going to test the nearest support once again
1/6/2017
 
0601usdjpyD.png
 
We’ve got a “Shooting Star”, a “High Wave” and a “Harami”, which all have been confirmed. Therefore, the market is likely going to test a support by the 21 Moving Average. If a pullback from this line happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another bullish price movement.
 
0601usdjpyH4.png
 
There’s an “Inverted Hammer” at the local low, which has a confirmation, so bulls are likely going to deliver an upward correction. At the same time, if a pullback from the nearest resistance arrives, bears will probably try to test closest support once again.
 
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#6587
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Your volatility calendar for January
1/6/2017
 
January 6, 15:30 MT time
 
US Nonfarm Payrolls
 
This report is the strongest Forex market mover. The indicator shows how many jobs were created in the US during the past month. Along with NFP the US Department of Labor will publish unemployment rate and average hourly earnings. The Federal Reserve keeps a close eye on these figures while making its monetary policy decisions. As a result, the release has a great impact on the US dollar in all currency pairs.
 
American central bank raised its main interest rate by 25 basis points in December and forecasted 3 rate hikes in 2017. Whether the Fed follows this scenario largely depends on the NFP strength. The Fed’s Chairwoman Janet Yellen claimed that although the state of the US labor market has improved, challenges still remain, so this release will once again draw the market’s attention. 
 
Fotolia_95848309_S.jpg
 
January 11, 11:30 MT time
 
British Manufacturing Production
 
Manufacturing production is one of the main barometers of the UK economic health as it reflects producers’ responsiveness to the changes in the business cycle.
 
To tell the truth, British industrial production remains a cause of concern due to the prolonged uncertainty over the EU-UK trade relationship. Another reason is that the UK industrial sector lacks structural competitiveness. The previous release of the indicator showed a drop in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by the UK manufacturers hinting on the possibility of Britain’s falling into recession after Brexit. The release at 11:30 MT time will surely have an impact on GBP. 
 
January 13, 15:30 MT time
 
US Retail Sales & Producer Prices
 
US retail sales & producer prices are the so-called pace indicators for the US economy. US retail sales data reflect the buying activity of the US citizens, while producer price index shows the changes in the prices of finished goods and services supplied to the market for sales. Higher costs tend to eat into real wages and hit consumers’ purchasing power. Heightened rates of consumer inflation may push the Fed to raise interest rates. All in all, higher readings of these indicators are good for the USD bulls.
 
The release will take place at 15:30 MT time.
 
1x-1.jpg
 
Chinese GDP & Industrial Production
 
China will publish its economic growth data for Q4 and December industrial production at 04:00 MT time.
 
China is the world’s fastest growing economy, so its economic performance matters to all Forex traders. Note that Chinese economy has been experiencing a slowdown during the past several years, so market participants will be keen on finding out whether this trend continues.
 
Risk-sensitive currencies will be most affected by the release. If Chinese figures exceed forecast, we expect Australian and New Zealand’s dollars to strengthen. If the release disappoints, it will be a good time for buying the safe havens like Japanese yen and Swiss franc.
 
January 18, 17:00 MT time 
 
BOC Rate Statement
 
The Bank of Canada (BoC) will announce its interest rate decision at 17:00 MT time. Short-term interest rates represent one of Canadian dollar’s key drivers. 
 
At its December meeting Canadian central bank didn’t change its benchmark rate from 0.50%. The BoC was encouraged by higher oil prices, improving domestic economic data and weaker national currency. 
 
Traders will be looking for hints on the BoC’s future intentions in its monetary policy report, rate statement and the following conference. Currency pairs with CAD will feel the impact of these events.
 
canada-cenbank-bank-of-canada-governor-s
 
January 19, 15:30 MT time
 
ECB Press Conference
 
The European Central Bank’s policy is behind most trends of the single currency. The ECB extended its bond-buying program until December 2017 at its last meeting. This decision provoked a selloff in the euro.
 
Traders are awaiting the press conference of the ECB head Mario Draghi in order to see what’s his take on the European economy and whether the central bank is still confident about the extremely loose monetary policy it has chosen. The press conference is to start at 15:30 MT time.
 
ECB_Press_Conference_pushes_EUR_USD_Lowe
 
January 23, 11:00 MT time
 
German Ifo Business Climate
 
German Ifo business climate will be released at 11:00 MT time. This indicator provides one of the most reliable projections for the country’s future economic growth. Changes in the business sentiment can produce a hefty market impact. The latest report showed that German economy may be back in the fast lane after its recent slowdown. The euro tends to rise if the released figures exceed analysts’ expectations. 
 
January 25, 02:30 MT time
 
Australian CPI
 
Australia releases inflation figures once in a quarter. This release is one of the benchmarks for the policy of the Reserve Bank of Australia. Note that Australian CPI growth picked up in Q2 and Q3 after posting a negative reading in the first 3 months of 2016. If you trade Australian dollar, don’t miss this release!
 
grade-inflation-performance-review-crop-
 
January 26, 11:30 MT time
 
British Prelim GDP
 
British preliminary Q4 GDP will be published at 11:30 MT time.
 
British GDP is the primary indicator of the country’s economic activity. It is believed to be one of the key data releases that impacts the exchange rate of the pound. A reading which is better than the consensus forecast is bullish for the sterling.  
 
Countries-falsifying-economic-data-How-s
 
January 27, 15:30 MT time
 
US Advance GDP
 
This is the broadest measure of American economic activity. It will be the first information about the US economic growth in the last 3 months of 2016. Market participants will scrutinize this macroeconomic gauge, and so it will have a sizeable impact on the US dollar.
 
January 31, 12:00 MT time
 
European CPI Flash Estimate
 
The euro area will release consumer inflation figures for January at 12:00 MT time. Inflation data is important for the euro’s exchange rate as rising prices lead the central bank to raising interest rates. Higher rates, in turn, help to increase demand for the euro making the rate go up. As a result, the release should be a significant driver of EUR/USD, EUR/GBP and other pairs containing the European currency. 
 
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#6588
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Key option levels for Monday, January 9th
1/8/2017
 
* Data about changes in the open interest will be available on Monday after 12:00 CT (Central Time)
 
EUR/USD
 
EURUSD(101).png
 
Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 206 835 ? + 333 594 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.0562; 1.0589; 1.0624; 1.0651
Closest support levels 1.0519; 1.0497; 1.0467; 1.0447
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.0519, with target points at 1.0497 and 1.0467
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.0562 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0589 and 1.0624
 
GBP/USD
 
GBPUSD(91).png
 
Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 198 ? + 1 291 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.2311; 1.2332; 1.2352; 1.2380
Closest support levels 1.2255; 1.2232; 1.2199; 1.2177
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short GBP/USD below 1.2255, with target points at 1.2232 and 1.2199
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.2311 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.2332 and 1.2352
 
USD/CAD
 
USDCAD(85).png
 
Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Bullish
Changes in the open interest + 513 ? + 1 107 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.3229; 1.3264; 1.3287; 1.3321
Closest support levels 1.3194; 1.3175; 1.3149; 1.3115
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short USD/CAD below 1.3194, with the target points at 1.3175 and 1.3149
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.3229 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.3264 and 1.3287
 
AUD/USD
 
AUDUSD(2).png
 
Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 281 ? + 827 ?
Closest resistance levels 0.7337; 0.7354; 0.7376; 0.7403
Closest support levels 0.7288; 0.7270; 0.7240; 0.7217
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short AUD/USD below 0.7288, with the target points at 0.7270 and 0.7240
Alternative scenario Moving above 0.7337 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 0.7354 and 0.7376
 
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#6589
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EUR/USD ahead of German data (November): 200 SMA as the next key support
1/9/2017
 
Today at 07:00 GMT will be released a bunch of data from Germany, headlined by the Trade Balance (November), which should see an increase to 21.2B from 20.5B. The retail sales can register today a significative increase from -0.5% to 0.4% on its annual reading in November as well. Also, industrial production can expect a 0.6% for November, which is above the 0.3% posted in October.
 
Our technical analysis for EUR/USD at H1 chart ahead of German data is still showing a bullish picture, despite the weakness seen during Friday’s NFP session. Currently, the pair still finds support around 1.0524, where bulls could help to resume the rally towards new highs, but it seems that all odds (in technical terms) are favoring another decline to test the 200 SMA around the 1.0484 level. If that area gives up, then another fall to test the December 28th lows is likely to happen.
 
EURUSDH1(18).png
 
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#6590
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NZD/USD: bears are restorting control
1/9/2017
 
On the daily NZD/USD chart, after the pair has recoiled to 23.6% Fibo it keeps forming the "Ideal butterfly" pattern. The bears remain in control. This is confirmed by the fact that the quotes stay within the descending channel.
 
Screenshot_2017_01_09_08_15_10.png
 
On H1, the bulls tried to settle above 0.7065 (38.2% Fibo of the last descending wave) but failed. A successful test of support at 0.6950 will strengthen the risks of decline towards 0.6910 (lower border of the bullish trend channel) and 0.6850 (113% ?target of the "Shark" pattern).
 
Screenshot_2017_01_09_08_15_28.png
 
Recommendation: SELL 0.6950 SL 0.7005 TP1 0.6850 TP2 0.6795. 
 
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#6591
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EUR/USD: bears are launching an attack
1/9/2017
 
On the daily EUR/USD chart, another attempt of the bulls to break above the descending channel has failed. Return to support at 0.0480 and further decline below it will strengthen the chance of falling towards 1.0390 and 1.0230 (113% and 127.2% targets of Crab pattern) and lower.  
 
Screenshot_2017_01_09_08_06_24.png
 
On H1 EUR/USD, in order to resume the long-term downtrend, the bears will have to activate the "Shark" pattern. For this, the pair needs the successful test of 1.0480.
 
Screenshot_2017_01_09_08_06_38.png
 
Recommendation: SELL 1.0480 SL 1.0535 TP1 1.0360 TP2 1.0230 
 
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#6592
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EUR/USD: bearish "Flag"
1/9//2017
 
9-1-2017-EUR-H4.png
 
There’s a “Double Top”, which has been confirmed, so we’ve got an upward price movement. The Moving Averages are acting as a support. Therefore, the market is likely going to decline towards the next support at 1.0461 – 1.0427. If a pullback from this area happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another bullish movement.
 
9-1-2017-EUR-H1.png
 
Bears faced a support at 1.0524, but there’s a possible “Flag” pattern, so the price is likely going to test the 89 Moving Average. Considering a possible pullback from this line, there’s a chance to have an upward movement in the direction of the nearest resistance at 1.0524 – 1.0552 in the short term.
 
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#6593
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GBP/USD: "Double Top" led to massive decline
1/9/2017
 
9-1-2017-GBP-H4.png
 
The main trend is still bearish. We’ve got a “Double Top” pattern, which has been confirmed, so the price faced a support at 1.2198. Therefore, bears are likely going to reach the next support at 1.2142 in the short term. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an option to have another bullish movement towards a resistance at 1.2270.
 
9-1-2017-GBP-H1.png
 
Bears have broken all moving averages on the one-hour chart, so we’ve got a new low here. In this case, the price is likely going to continue falling down in the direction of the closest support at 1.2142. If bears be stopped here, there’ll be time for a correction.
 
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#6594
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EUR/USD: wave (iii) started
1/9/2019
 
Image20170109123954001.png
 
We’ve got a pullback from 3/8 MM Level, which points to a possible ending of wave (ii). Previously, wave [ii] has been formed like a zigzag. Therefore, bears are likely going to deliver an impulse in wave (iii) of [iii] in the short term.
 
Image20170109123954002.png
 
As we can see on the one-hour chart, there’s a double zigzag in wave (ii). Also, we’ve got a bearish impulse in wave i, so bulls are going to deliver wave ii. If a pullback from 7/8 MM Level arrives later on, there’ll be an opportunity to have another bearish impulse.
 
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#6595
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EUR/USD: Euro stays in the Cloud
1/9/2017
 
Technical levels: support – 1.0480, 1.0500; resistance – 1.0550, 1.0580.
 
Trade recommendations:
 
1. Buy — 1.0500; SL — 1.0480; TP1 — 1.0580; TP2 – 1.0690.
 
Reason: bullish, but the narrow Ichimoku Cloud, horizontal Senkou Span A and B; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are in the Cloud; the strong support of Senkou Span A and Kijun-sen.
 
01-eurusdh4(77).png
 
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#6596
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AUD/USD: aussie looks very strong
1/9/2017
 
Technical levels: support – 0.7260/70; resistance – 0.7345, 0.7390.
 
Trade recommendations:
 
1. Buy — 0.7270; SL — 0.7250; TP1 — 0.7340; TP2 — 0.7390.
 
Reason: bearish Ichimoku Cloud, but the rising Senkou Span A; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are tested the resistance of Senkou Span B and returned to the Tenkan’s support.
 
03-audusdh4(65).png
 
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#6597
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EUR/USD: bearish "Engulfing" on the "Window"
1/9/2017
 
0901eurusdH4-1.png
 
We’ve got a “Tower” and an “Engulfing”, which both have been confirmed. Therefore, bears are likely going to test the nearest support. If we see any bullish pattern later on, there’ll be an opportunity to have another upward movement.
 
0901eurusdH1-1.png
 
There’s a possible “Tweezers” at the local high. Also, we’ve got an “Engulfing” on the nearest “Window”, but a confirmation of this pattern is a quite weak. Therefore, the market is likely going to continue falling down.
 
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#6598
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USD/JPY: "High Wave" stopped bulls
1/9/2017
 
0901usdjpyH4-1.png
 
There’s an “Inverted Hammer”, which has been confirmed enough. At the same time, we’ve got a local bearish “Engulfing” at the local high. So, the price is likely going to test the nearest support level.
 
0901usdjpyH1.png
 
We’ve got a bearish “High Wave”, which has a confirmation. Under this circumstances, the pair is likely going to test the closest resistance. Considering a possible pullback from this level, there’s an option to have another decline in the short term.
 
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#6599
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GBP/USD broke strong support level 1.2200
1/9/2017
 
GBP/USD broke strong support level 1.2200
Next sell target - 1.2000
GBP/USD continues to fall after the recent breakout of the strong support level 1.2200 (which stopped the previous impulse waves 1 and (B), as can be seen from the daily GBP/USD chart below). The breakout of the support level 1.2200 is expected to accelerate the active minor impulse wave 3, which started earlier from the resistance zone lying between the resistance level 1.2400 and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous downward impulse 1.
 
GBP/USD is expected to fall further toward the next sell target at the powerful support level 1.2000. Sell stop-loss can be placed above the aforementioned price level 1.2200.
 
GBPUSD_-_Primary_Analysis_-_Jan-09_1512_
 
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#6600
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GBP/AUD falling inside intermediate downward impulse (3)
1/9/2017
 
GBP/AUD falling inside intermediate downward impulse (3)
Next sell target - 1.6250
GBP/AUD continues to fall inside the minor impulse wave 1, which belongs to the intermediate downward impulse (3), which started recently from the resistance zone lying between the key resistance level 1.7140 (which has been reversing the pair all December), upper daily Bollinger Band and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction level of the previous sharp downward impulse from June.
 
GBP/AUD is expected to fall further in the direction of the next sell target at the support level 1.6250. Strong resistance now stands at resistance level 1.7140.
 
GBPAUD_-_Primary_Analysis_-_Jan-09_1506_
 
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