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USD/JPY: CONFIRMED BULLISH "HARAMI"

14:08 17.08.2017

 

1502967696-d7e0c75b76d890367f1413d032b7d

 

We've got a "Tweezers" and a "Hanging Man", which both have been formed on the 89 Moving Average. Therefore, the pair is likely going to test the lower side of the nearest "Window" soon.

 

1502967696-bf819ba48f390818f5a34952afe98

 

There's a bullish "Harami", which has been confirmed, so the price is likely going to test the upper "Window". If a pullback from this level happens afterwards, bears will have a green light to deliver another decline.

 

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EUR/USD: "V-BOTTOM" PATTERN[/NB]

09:56 18.08.2017

 

1503039328-455931bd6d63318c689656381775a

 

There's a "V-Bottom" pattern, so the price reached the 55 Moving Average. In this case, the market is likely going to test the nearest resistance at 1.1801 - 1.1846. If a pullback from this area happens, there'll be an opportunity to have a decline towards the closest support at 1.1638 - 1.1649.

 

1503039328-64df3e2444a44b5650093db20431e

 

The 34 Moving Average has acted as resistance, so the price is consolidating. It's likely that bears are going to achieve the nearest support at 1.1712 - 1.1703. However, if we have a pullback from these levels, bulls will have a green light to reach another resistance at 1.1757 - 1.1784.

 

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USD/JPY IS LOOKING FOR DIRECTION

10:30 18.08.2017

 

Recommendation:

 

BUY 110.95 SL 110.40 TP 112.50 

 

On the daily chart, bears managed to lead the pair outside of the triangle. This increases the possibility of pattern AB=CD with the target at 161.8% in case of a successful break below support at 108. On the contrary, the pair’s return inside the triangle will show sellers’ weakness.

 

1503041269-5a117e210f07e8a06e5a07b2ea892

 

On H1, USD/JPY bulls managed to seize the initiative and return the quotes to the upper border of the downtrend channel. Further activation of the inverted “Head and Shoulders” and “Shark” will strengthen the risks of a bearish trend.

 

1503041285-3297c54597baddc0779dab87f7356

 

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GBP/USD: BEARISH "FLAG" PATTERN

10:00 18.08.2017

 

1503039328-b5e4acf04bc072d585ad795b0a8b7

 

We've got a bearish "Flag" pattern, so the market is likely going to reach the next support at 1.2830 - 1.2811 in the short term. At the same time, bulls will probably try to achieve the nearest resistance at 1.2892 - 1.2911 afterwards

 

1503039328-1ad28b358972a15c747f8eeaf3b55

 

The price is consolidating near the 34 Moving Average. Also, there's a possible "Flag", so the price is likely going to test the upper side of this pattern. If a pullback from the closest resistance at 1.2911 - 1.2926 happens, there'll be an opportunity to have a decline towards another support at 1.2930 - 1.2811.

 

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EUR/USD: BEARS ARE READY FOR A NEW ATTACK

10:37 18.08.2017

 

Recommendation:

 

SELL 128 SL 128.55 TP1 126.90 TP2 125.80

 

On the daily chart, bears attempted for the second time to test important support at 128. It failed, but sellers don’t give up and hope to develop correction and reach 88.6% target of “Shark” pattern.

 

1503041796-7838955cc2a4a8535a1afde1a52f6

 

On H1, EUR/JPY formed “Head and Shoulders” pattern. A break of the neckline near 128.00 support with simultaneous activation of the AB=CD pattern will create an opportunity for a pullback to the uptrend towards 125.60-125.80.

 

1503041813-144c086f9efd0dd7367f2818eb875

 

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GBP/USD: UNDER KIJUN’S RESISTANCE

13:17 18.08.2017

 

Technical levels: support – 1.2840; resistance – 1.2900.

 

Trade recommendations:

 

Sell — 1.2900; SL — 1.2920; TP1 — 1.2840; TP2 — 1.2810.

Reason: expanding bearish Ichimoku Cloud with horizontal Senkou Span B; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, but the lines are horizontal; the prices are under the resistance of Kijun-sen and may continue falling down.

 

1503051438-5838ef800660551113de2aff99712

 

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USD: OUTLOOK FOR AUGUST 21-25

13:17 18.08.2017

 

The US dollar index (DXY) got support at 92.80 last week and went up to consolidate between 93.20 and 94.00.

 

The minutes of the Federal Reserve’s July meeting showed that most central bank officials supported a move towards unwinding the Fed's massive balance sheet in September. The $4.5 trillion balance sheet was built up after the financial crisis to keep borrowing costs low. In addition, markets closely follow the Fed’s discussion about inflation, which has recently shown signs of weakness. Opinions within the Fed slightly differ on this point: some members think that the softness in prices is temporary, while others worry that it will take longer than expected for inflation to rise to 2% target. As a result, the odds are that the Fed will delay a rate hike until inflation picks up. This is not very inspiring for the USD.

 

In the upcoming days, pay attention to new home sales and crude oil inventories on Wednesday, existing home sales on Thursday and core durable goods orders on Friday. In addition, at the end of the week, world's major central bankers will gather at the Fed’s Jackson Hole Symposium. The Fed Chair Janet Yellen will speak on the topic of financial stability at 17:00 MT time on Friday.

 

Note that political turmoil in Trump’s administration and the market’s risk aversion will likely reduce the impact of any positive statistics from America and keep the US currency under pressure.

 

Despite the recent recovery, DXY is still not far from its 13-month lows hit at the beginning of August. It looks like the greenback is correcting up within the general downtrend. A decline below 93.20 will open the way down to 93.00 and 92.50 (200-week MA). Resistance is at 94.00 ahead of 94.90 (50-day MA).   

 

1503051240-5e0d291e37f1df420e0609e389824

 

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USD/JPY: DOLLAR RETURNED TO NEGATIVE AREA

13:18 18.08.2017

 

Technical levels: support – 109.00; resistance – 109.50.

 

Trade recommendations:

 

Sell — 109.50; SL — 109.70; TP1 — 109.00; TP2 — 108.60.

Reason: expanding bearish Ichimoku Cloud with falling Senkou Span A; a cancelled golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, the falling lines; the bears continue their offensive.

 

1503051438-3dcc4d3b0e9d38341d309e86e7227

 

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EUR/USD: OUTLOOK FOR AUGUST 21-25

13:25 18.08.2017

 

In line with expectations, EUR/USD moved horizontally between 1.1845 and 1.1685 during the past week. European stocks were affected by terrorist attack n Barcelona.

 

The minutes of the ECB July meeting revealed the central bank’s concern over the euro’s strength. It also seems that officials are still uncertain how to signal changes in their policy settings as the economic outlook improves and the need for broad-based bond purchases diminishes. 

 

The ECB President Mario Draghi will address a conference in Germany on Aug. 23, and two days later attends the US Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole symposium. According to a Reuters report, Draghi won’t deliver a new policy message in Jackson Hole. At the same time, taking into account low inflation in the euro area and other developed economies, any comments on this point will have an impact on the market.

 

Other events in the region’s economic calendar include German ZEW economic sentiment index on Tuesday, euro zone’s flash manufacturing & services PMIs on Wednesday and German Ifo business climate on Friday.

 

The pair’s now in a correction within the overall uptrend. The trend channel will stay intact as long as the pair’s above 1.1625.  It looks like the euro will visit this level. If it is breached, the pair will be vulnerable for a decline to 1.1540. A close below 200-week MA at 1.1770 won’t be a very encouraging sign. Return above 1.1790 is needed to open the way to the recent highs at 1.1845 and 1.1910, as well as the psychological level of 1.2000.

 

1503051829-2349034b7ae13b26b6714da8aabcf

 

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EUR/USD: "ENGULFING", "DOJI" AND "HARAMI"

13:31 18.08.2017

 

1503052258-c1b1fb7a9ceb217001736c73f0ed5

 

There are bullish patterns such an "Engulfing", a "Doji" and a "Harami", which all have been formed on the 55 Moving Average line. So, the market is likely going to test the nearest resistance in the short term

 

1503052258-0f6d74eab1954bd746c394c1054f7

 

The price has reached the Moving Averages, so it's likely to have any bearish pattern soon. In this case, we could have a local bearish correction, but bulls will probably try to deliver a new local high afterwards.

 

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USD/JPY: BEARS GOING TO REACH LOWER "WINDOW"

13:34 18.08.2017

 

1503052258-f2bd657559f439fc73e5184eda132

 

There isn't any reversal pattern so far, which means we should keep an eye on the lower "Window" as an intraday target. If a pullback from this level happens, we could have an upward correction towards the Moving Averages

 

1503052258-40cba197806cc5e0e71d51e8b078d

 

We've got an "Inverted Hammer" and a "Tweezers" patterns, but both of them haven't been confirmed yet. So, there's an opportunity to have a local bullish correction and the following decline afterwards.

 

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USD/JPY: OUTLOOK FOR AUGUST 21-25

15:46 18.08.2017

 

USD/JPY had a very volatile week. The pair rebounded from 109.00 to 111.00, but then was rejected down and returned to 109.00.

 

Japanese GDP showed the biggest expansion in more than 2 years (+1% q/q) in the second quarter as consumer and business spending picked up. However, wage growth and inflation remain subdued as companies avoid passing more of their profits to employees. Japan will release inflation figures on Friday. Although a small acceleration in price growth from 0.4% to 0.5% is expected, this is still very far from the regulator’s 2% inflation target. As a result, risk sentiment will remain the primary driver of the pair.   

 

The market’s risk aversion is feeding demand for the safe-haven yen. Concerns over US President Donald Trump's ability to push through the pro-growth measures led to significant declines on Wall Street. Terrorist attack in Barcelona also affected the markets. North Korea can also be a source of worries.

 

USD/JPY remains in short- and longer-term downtrend. A decline below 109.00 will open the way down to 108.80 (bottom of the weekly Ichimoku Cloud/August, June lows). In turn, decline below that point will bring the pair down to 108.10 (April low). A break below the latter will be a signal of the bigger top at Forex market. Resistance lies at 109.50, 110.50 and 111.00.

 

1503060352-9979bfdacf87e6ddf67fc3a176475

 

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GBP/USD: OUTLOOK FOR AUGUST 21-25

16:23 18.08.2017

 

Reports released this week in the UK showed a mixed picture. Consumer price inflation in Britain unexpectedly held steady in July at an annual rate of 2.6%, despite the fact that analysts were looking forward to a higher number. This news diminishes the pressure on the Bank of England to raise interest rates – not a positive factor for the pound. Retail sales growth exceeded forecasts on the monthly basis, although advance of the indicator in 3 months through July was the weakest in almost 4 years.

 

In the coming days, Britain will release the second estimate of its GDP growth in the second quarter. According to the initial data, the UK economy expanded by only 0.3% – that’s weak in comparison with last year’s figures.

 

Uncertainty about Brexit and global risk concerns are having a negative impact on the British currency.

 

GBP/USD broke below the 50-day MA at 1.2930 at the start of the week and is now consolidating above the 100-day MA at 1.2870. The pair’s currently trading at support line, which connects March and June lows. Decline below the recent lows and 61.8% retracement of June-August rally will open the way down towards the next Fibo level at 1.2735 and 200-day MA at 1.2640. Resistance levels are at 1.2930 and 1.3000. 

 

1503062554-19dda06215037e098a5fb4cc55818

 

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EUR/USD IS LOOKING FOR A HINT

11:06 21.08.2017

 

Recommendation:

 

SELL 1.1705 SL 1.1760 TP1 1.1625 TP2 1.1530

 

BUY 1.1825 SL 1.1770 TP 1.1925

 

On the daily chart, bulls are trying to return the pair inside the uptrend channel at the phase of the “Spike and reversal with acceleration”. If they succeed. The odds of the uptrend’s resumption will increase. On the other hand, failure will allow bears to continue correction.

 

1503302736-8afba167b3e7c15d0d5d28d0f3c7b

 

On H1, EUR/USD finished forming the “widening wedge”. Return of the quotes to 23.6% of the wave 4-5 will be a reason for short positions. On the other hand, growth to $1.1825 will allow opening longs.

 

1503302752-144c086f9efd0dd7367f2818eb875

 

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EUR/USD: CONSOLIDATION IN CLOUDY AREA

10:32 21.08.2017

 

Technical levels: support – 1.1640, 1.1730; resistance – 1.1770, 1.1820.

 

Trade recommendations:

 

Sell — 1.1720; SL — 1.1740; TP1 — 1.1680; TP2 – 1.1640.

Reason: bearish Ichimoku Cloud with falling Senkou Span A; a new dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are in the Cloud and may test the support of Senkou Span B.

 

1503300732-5974574d0f06c411e972e24d898d2

 

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AUD/USD: AUSSIE TESTED SSB’S RESISTANCE

10:33 21.08.2017

 

Technical levels: support – 0.7890; resistance – 0.7935.

 

Trade recommendations:

 

Buy — 0.7890; SL — 0.7870; TP1 — 0.7935; TP3 — 0.7980.

Reason: bearish Ichimoku Cloud with falling Senkou Span A; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are testing the resistance of Senkou Span B.

 

1503300732-42a68b4bfa2f0515dfbaa054e9dba

 

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NZD/USD: BULLS PREPARE A STRIKE

11:18 21.08.2017

 

Recommendation:

 

BUY 0.7335 SL 0.7280 TP1 0.7435 TP2 0.7530

 

On the daily chart, NZD/USD keeps retracing in line with the transformation of the “Shark” pattern to 5-0. Return of the pair to resistance at 0.7386 (23.6% of the wave CD) and its following successful test will increase the odds of the uptrend’s resumption.

 

1503303437-fb9be1d9d65d6402746f6573306cf

 

On H1, bulls are ready to launch a third attack on 0.7334. Their success will trigger the “Shark” pattern and increase the odds of reaching 88.6% target. We don’t exclude the possibility of an inverted “Head and Shoulders” pattern.

 

1503303455-3696dc2326705fd45dfa7b732beb8

 

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EUR/USD: 34 MA ACTED AS RESISTANCE

11:29 21.08.2017

 

1503303931-f661d9397fb4886a8251600986528

 

The 34 Moving Average has acted as resistance, so the price is consolidating. It seems like the market is going to reach the nearest support at 1.1712 - 1.1683. If a pullback from this area happens, there'll be an opportunity to have an upward price movement towards the next resistance at 1.1801 - 1.1846.

 

1503303930-f363e9a3a3e1b738fa5f0215a3b77

 

The price is consolidating along resistance at 1.1757. If a pullback from the 55 Moving Average happens, bears are likely going to achieve the closest support between the levels 1.1727 - 1.1712. Nevertheless, we should keep an eye on the next resistance at 1.1784 - 1.1801 as a bullish target.

 

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GBP/USD: "THORN" PATTERN

11:34 21.08.2017

 

1503303929-d4003eb977135f0dd395567f0b274

 

The last "Flag" pattern has been broken, so the price reached support at 1.2830. Also, there's a "Thorn" pattern, so the market is likely going to test the nearest support at 1.2811. If a pullback from this level happens, bulls will have a green light to reach the next resistance at 1.2892 - 1.2911.

 

1503303929-e8411940b79df4b3b8c6596486e98

 

There's a consolidation, which is taking place under the 34 Moving Average. So, the pair is likely going to reach the closest resistance at 1.2892. If we have a pullback from this level, bears will probably try to test support at 1.2930 - 1.2811.

 

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EUR/USD: POSSIBLE WEDGE PATTERN

12:33 21.08.2017

 

1503307952-7a8edf2a050291e45785c566ea9c1

 

The price has been consolidating since an impulse in wave [iii] finished. It seems like we could have a zigzag in wave [iv]. So, we could have another bearish impulse in wave © of [iv] pretty soon.

 

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There's a possible wedge pattern in wave (a) of [iv]. Therefore, we could have wave (B), which is likely going to take the form of a double zigzag. In this case, we should keep an eye on 6/8 MM Level as an intraday bullish target.

 

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EUR/USD: BEARISH "DOJI"

13:27 21.08.2017

 

1503311167-2b343867c18cc6c5f814a76c48e5c

 

We've got a bearish "Doji" on the 34 Moving Average, but confirmation of this pattern isn't enough. So, the price is likely going to test the closest support area, which could be a departure point for an upward price movement.

 

1503311166-99584a67421441df77e796074075d

 

We've got an "Engulfing" pattern at the last local high. Considering confirmation of this pattern, the price is likely going to test the nearest support level. The bearish main target is the lower "Window".

 

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USD/JPY: "WINDOW" ACTED AS SUPPORT

13:30 21.08.2017

 


 

The lower "Window" has acted as support, so we've got an "Inverted Hammer". However, the price couldn't break the upper "Window", so bears are likely going to test the nearest support once again.

 

1503311167-dbd5fbcba9d6baeef6051cf199716

 

We've got a local bullish "Harami", which hasn't been confirmed yet. So, the price is likely going to test the closest resistance. If a pullback from this level happens, we could have just another decline.

 

 

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OIL (WTI) FAVORED BY THE BEARS

01:32 22.08.2017

 

Oil (WTI) didn’t achieve to consolidate its gains above the 200 SMA at H1 chart and around that area, it found dynamic resistance; a move that was confirmed with a double top pattern. The Fibonacci area of 50% and 65% has been providing the enough supply to make a sell-off in the crude and it’s now heading to lower levels.

 

If the crude oil manages to break below August 17th lows, we can expect further weakness towards -23.6% at 45.57. RSI indicator remains in the negative territory, favoring to the bears.

 

1503354721-9543e18e4efe30ad929a83fe007da

 

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EUR/USD: "DOUBLE TOP" PATTERN

10:38 22.08.2017

 

1503387391-fce8926c76460aa3e58b9b19ead3e

 

The price is consolidating under the previously broken trend line. So, the pair is likely going to test the 34 Moving Average. If a pullback from this line happens, there'll be an opportunity to have another upward price movement towards the next resistance at 1.1846 - 1.1875.

 

1503387390-3e04c87082e567473b0104a37914a

 

We've got a local "Double Top" pattern, which has been confirmed, so the price is testing the nearest support at 1.1801. It seems like bears are going to reach the next support at 1.1773. However, if we have a pullback from this level, bulls will probably try to achieve another resistance at 1.1838 - 1.1846.

 

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GBP/USD: BEARS GOING TO TEST NEAREST SUPPORT

10:41 22.08.2017

 

1503387391-799f29fdc55a485a1035097d2ec84

 

The price is consolidating between the levels 1.2830 - 1.2911. Meanwhile, bears are likely going to test the nearest support at 1.2853. If we have a pullback from this level, there'll be an option to have a bullish price movement in the direction of the next resistance at 1.2932 - 1.2951.

 

1503387390-593c503a5d66e7c75f9d5c99836be

 

There's a consolidation, which is taking place near the Moving Averages. The market is likely going to reach the closest support at 1.2853 during the day. At the same time, if we have a pullback from this level, bulls will have a green light to catch another resistance at 1.2926 - 1.2932.

 

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