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FBS.com - Daily/Weekly Analysis / Market News


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8212 replies to this topic

#21
internationallove

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"Commonwealth: Aussie may fall to $0.97" (2010-12-13)

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Currency strategists at Commonwealth Bank of Australia note that Australian dollar is trading versus its US counterpart range-bound between 0.9810 and 0.9896. The specialists note, however, that by the end of the week the pair AUD/USD may get under pressure.

According to the bank, there aren’t many investors willing to take risk ahead of the 2-day Fed meeting starting Tuesday. The analysts believe that US monetary authorities will try to look more optimistic after the beige book and try to understate weak payrolls number. As a result, American yields may get a little higher and push up USD against all crosses.

Commonwealth expects Aussie to approach 0.9700 by the end of the week.


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Chart. H1 AUD/USD


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#22
internationallove

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"Commerzbank: euro will stay under pressure this week" (2010-12-13)

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Analysts at Commerzbank believe that the single currency will remain under pressure ahead of the EU summit schedule on Thursday. In their view, investors will be looking forward to the details of the permanent crisis management mechanisms to replace the transitional EFSF and EFSM programs.

uropeanFinancial Stability Mechanism or EFSM is endowed with 60 billion euro and the European Financial Stability Facility or EFSF has borrowing capacity of 690 billion euro.

At least the German Finance Minister is expecting a decision on the form of the mechanism, which would remove a lot of the uncertainty in the market.


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Chart. H4 EUR/USD


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#23
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"CUBS: EUR/CHF ahead of SNB meeting" (2010-12-13)

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Currency strategists at UBS AG claim that although the fundamentals point at the potential decline of the single currency versus Swiss franc, the market players won’t want to have short positions by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) meeting that will take place on Thursday.

The specialists note that Switzerland’s economy is showing very encouraging results, the SNB could tighten its monetary policy. Never the less, headline and core CPI is near zero, so the rate hike currently seems very unlikely.


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Chart. H4 EUR/CHF


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#24
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"Mizuho advises to buy pound versus US dollar" (2010-12-13)

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Technical analysts at Mizuho Corporate Bank note that British pound is clinging to the bottom of the daily Ichimoku Cloud. The specialists also point that the 9-day MA is limiting the recent minimums, while the Chinkou Span is getting a small lift from November Cloud.

According to Mizuho, if the pair GBP/USD closes the day above the 26-day MA in the 1.5850 area, momentum will become bullish.

The bank recommends buying pounds on the decline to 1.5700 and stopping below 1.5650. Sterling’s expected to advance to 1.5975/1.6000.


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Chart. Daily GBP/USD


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#25
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"DBS Bank: China’s in favor of euro’s strengthening" (2010-12-14)

Strategists at DBS Bank expect that euro and the pair USD/CNY will strengthen. In their view, this will happen as China’s diversifying its foreign exchange reserves from the greenbacks in favor of the single currency.

The specialists note that Chinese authorities regard US economic and fiscal problems more serious than the European ones. China approves of euro area’s decision to aim at the long-term stability of euro, even though the austerity measures will certainly harm the region’s growth in the short term.

Stronger euro will make yuan rise helping China to fight rising inflation. In addition, DBS believes that the market prefers China to raise the reserve requirement ratio instead of lifting up the interest rates as it reassures investors that China’s economic growth pace is high enough.

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#26
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"Mizuho: euro will rise above $1.3472" (2010-12-14)

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Technical analysts at Mizuho Corporate Bank note that the single currency’s going up today versus the greenback even despite the gloomy comment from the British ex-Prime Minister Gordon Brown who said that a failure of the Euro would be an economic and political disaster.

The pair EUR/USD bounced from the 9-day MA as the Chinkou Span was driven by November’s sharply rising daily Ichimoku Cloud. Today euro will try to overcome the 26-day MA at the 1.3472 level representing the bottom of the Cloud and 38% Fibonacci retracement resistance. In addition, more gains of the European currency will occur in case of more short coverings, believe the specialists.

According to Mizuho, it’s necessary to buy at 1.3400 adding to 1.3300 and stopping below 1.3150. The pair’s expected to rise to 1.3625 and then to 1.3800.


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Chart. Daily EUR/USD


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#27
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"Analysts’ comments ahead of FOMC Statement" (2010-12-14)

The FOMC Statement and the Federal Funds Rate will be announced today at 8:15pm GMT. Below there are some analysts’ comments on the matter.

Analysts at Barclays Bank Plc note that the Federal Reserve may underline today that it’s going to continue the current quantitative easing justifying such policy by high unemployment rate and sluggish inflation. As a result, US mid- and long- term yields as well as dollar, especially the pair USD/JPY, may find themselves under pressure.

Currency strategists at Nomura believe that more time has to pass before investors will make out whether the US economic recovery is sustainable enough to drive up yields. As soon as American economy begins improving, the county’s investors will become more eager to take risks and go overseas looking for higher yields. As a result, the demand for the greenback will diminish and the currency will remain weak.

Specialists at UniCredit say that the single currency may keep trying to climb to the key resistance at 1.35. However, today’s data and event can create a threat for euro. Investors shouldn’t forget that the euro zone’s problems are far from being solved, claims UniCredit.

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#28
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" Mizuho: USD/JPY may decline" (2010-12-14)

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Technical analysts at Mizuho Corporate Bank note that the pair USD/JPY looks instable as it’s trading in the range between the recent maximum at 84.41 and the top of the daily Ichimoku Cloud found slightly above 83.00.

The specialists expect that if the greenback closes the day below its 9-day MA at 83.36, momentum will become downward and the rate will slip to 83.15 and then to 82.35.

Mizuho recommends selling US currency on the growth to 83.75 stopping above 84.50.


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Chart. H4 USD/JPY


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#29
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"BoA-Merrill Lynch: yuan’s undervalued only by 3-4%" (2010-12-14)

Economists at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch claim that Chinese yuan seems to be rather close to its fair value and is undervalued only by 3-4%. The specialists note that China’s currency appreciated in real terms since 2005, while the country’s current account surplus has significantly declined.

Merrill Lynch expects that in 2011 Asian currencies will keep advancing, but not very strongly as most of them are now fairly valued. Taking into account increasing inflationary pressure and monetary tightening, the bank advises to decrease investments in Chinese equities and not invest in Hong Kong

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#30
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"MIG Bank: EUR/USD may drop to 1.2588" (2010-12-15)

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Technical analysts at MIG Bank believe that the pair EUR/USD has returned to the multi-month descending trend.

The specialists believe that the single currency will decline firstly to 1.3164, then to the last significant minimum at 1.2969 on its way to the August minimum at 1.2588.

According to the bank, euro’s prospects can become bullish only and it may get chance to rise to 1.4282 only if the pair EUR/USD closes the day above 1.3786.


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Chart. H4 EUR/USD


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#31
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"National Bank of Canada: loonie may strengthen" (2010-12-15)

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Canadian dollar is fluctuating today between 1.0058 and 1.0094 versus its US counterpart. Such dynamics can be explained by the fact that the Federal Reserve stayed loyal to its plan of purchasing $600 billion of Treasuries up to June, while the oil price was quite volatile.

The Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney claimed yesterday that persistently strong loonie may harm the country’s economic growth, while the latest round of quantitative easing should have a positive but small impact on Canadian economic growth.

Currency strategists at National Bank of Canada note that it seems that the greenback will be declining that, in its turn, will give commodities some positive momentum supporting Canada’s currency.

Crude oil for January delivery traded at $88.26 a barrel in New York, down 0.4%, after gaining 0.4% and falling by 1%. The yield on Canadian 10-year government bonds reached 3.372, the maximal level since June 21.


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Chart. H4 USD/CAD


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#32
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"CIBC: Treasuries yield will fall by the year-end" (2010-12-15)

Strategists at Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce believe that 10-year Treasury yields may decrease to 3% by the end of 2010 as the technical analysis shows that US debt has been oversold.

Yesterday the rate climbed to 3.49% overcoming the 61.8% retracement of the decline from April maximum at 4% to 2.33% minimum hit on October 8. Then American yields may get back retesting 61.8% retracement to form a double-top.

The yield’s 14-day RSI (relative strength index) was at 73 that’s above the key 70 level regarded as the signal of trend’s reversal.

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#33
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"UBS: EUR/CHF may rebound to 1.30" (2010-12-16)

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that Switzerland’s monetary authorities won’t raise the rates today even though the country’s economic data so far was really encouraging. The reason for the central bank to refrain from monetary tightening is strong national currency that renewed yesterday its record maximum versus euro at 1.2756. The SNB may marginally revise up its 2.5% GDP estimate for 2010, but is likely to announce forecast for 2011 growth below 2.0%, claims BNP.

Currency strategists at UBS AG note that, as they have predicted, the pair EUR/CHF hit their long-term downside target at 1.28. Franc appreciated because of the euro zone’s debt problems, lack of liquidity and investors expecting SNB to be more hawkish at today's quarterly meeting. The specialists warn that the single currency may rebound initially to 1.30. In their view, Swiss central bank will have to show some dovish intentions.


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Chart. H4 EUR/CHF


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#34
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"Commerzbank recommend selling EUR/CHF on its advance" (2010-12-16)

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Technical analysts at Commerzbank believe that the single currency will remain under pressure trading versus Swiss franc. According to them, as long as the pair EUR/CHF is trading below resistance area at 1.3020/70, it risks dropping to 1.2710 and 1.2657.

The specialists advise to sell euro if it advances to 1.2935 and 1.30 stopping at 1.3070 and taking profit at 1.2660.


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Chart. H1 EUR/CHF


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#35
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"Barclays Capital: negative pressure on sterling’s increasing" (2010-12-16)

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Currency strategists at Barclays Capital note that while investors are curtailing their activities ahead of the year-end, British currency looks extremely vulnerable.

The specialists claim that sterling seems to be under negative pressure in the majority of its crosses. The pair GBP/CHF slumped yesterday to the record minimum, GBP/AUD reached this year’s low and GBP/USD declined.

According to Barclays, if pound keeps losing its weakening will take form of the vast downtrend. In such case GBP/USD and EUR/GBP risk breaking support at 1.5485 and 0.8550 weighting on sterling even more.


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Chart. H4 GBP/USD


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#36
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"Commerzbank: short term outlook for EUR/USD deteriorated" (2010-12-16)

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The single currency dropped by almost 300 pips during the previous 2 days trading versus US dollar as the pair EUR/USD declined from 1.3500 to 1.3200. Technical analysts at Commerzbank note that such fall worsened the short term outlook for euro.

The specialists note that the pair tried to consolidate above 1.1.3470/75 resistance area, but the bulls didn’t prove to be strong enough. As a result, euro’s target moved down to 200-day MA at 1.3107 and the recent minimum at 1.2970.

If EUR/USD manages to overcome 1.3475/00, it will get a chance to rise to the 55-day MA at 1.3658.


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Chart. H1 EUR/USD


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#37
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"Credit Suisse: US and Europe in 2011" (2010-12-17)

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Analysts at Credit Suisse Asset Management gave their opinion about US quantitative easing and the outlook for European economies in 2011.

The specialists believe that American QE will last at least during the first quarter of 2011 and probably during the second quarter. As US economy starts to accelerate towards 3% growth then probably the Fed will start to reverse pond purchases and that, according to Credit Suisse, could be the major risk for markets next year.

As for the euro area, the strategists expect further credit downgrades of the indebted countries which find themselves under pressure. Credit Suisse also notes that the growth differential between Germany and the rest of Northern Europe and the stressed economies is going to remain very wide and deep. It’s quite difficult to see economies like Greece, Spain, Ireland and Portugal generate strong growth next year and that’s going to the one of the major problems in the region, claim in the bank pointing at the fact that Spanish and Italian markets underperform versus the German one this year by almost 30%. Such underperformance is thought to continue in the first half of 2011.

Credit Suisse underlines that there’s now a significant political shift going on in the interests of all governments: the risk of the sovereign debt is transferred of going to be transferred from taxpayers and governments to investors, therefore European bond markets are trading very differently today and this difference will continue at least for the next 2-3 years.


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Chart. Daily EUR/USD


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#38
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"RBS: drawbacks of Europe's monetary authorities" (2010-12-17)

Economists at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc believe that the lack of policy response to the critical situation in the region from the euro area’s monetary authorities makes investors lose confidence in the ability if European officials to handle the crisis. RBS strategists note that tools existing at the European level can be used only then the crisis has materialized. What is necessary, according to RBS, it’s the crisis prevention, not the crisis management.

As a result, the specialists expect confidence loss will be the main driver of the market in the short term. In their view, bailouts for Portugal and Spain are likely and the steps in this direction may be taken over the coming month. RBS estimates that the EU has enough funds at least to respond to the Spanish problem in the short term.

All in all, the analysts regard the ECB bond purchase program as the optimal sort of defense line claiming that it’s very important for the European Central bank to be forceful and confident in what it’s doing.

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#39
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"Commerzbank: EUR/GBP likely to gain" (2010-12-17)

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Technical analysts at Commerzbank note that the single currency has overcome 200-day MA at 0.8516 trading versus the British pound and renewed 3-week maximum at 0.8552.

According to the specialists, if EUR/GBP closes the day above 0.8516 it will manage to climb above resistance in 0.8605/0.8640 area limited by the 55-day MA and 50% Fibonacci retracement.


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Chart. H4 EUR/GBP


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#40
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"Mizuho: EUR/USD big move at the beginning of 2011" (2010-12-17)

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Analysts at Mizuho Securities Co. believe that the single currency may undertake a big move at the beginning of the next year trading versus the greenback. The assumptions were made on the basis of Ichimoku analysis.

The specialists note that the lines Senkou Span A and Senkou Span B are converging, compressing the Cloud at $1.36 area on December 31. The big move tends to occur around a twist of an Ichimoku Cloud. Before such significant change of the rate the pair EUR/USD may trade in range between $1.30 and $1.34.

It can’t be said, however, which direction such a big move will take. The strategists suggest that easing of tensions relating to the European debt crisis may help the euro to strengthen.


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Chart. H4 EUR/USD


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