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Key option levels for Monday, January 16th

1/15/2017

 

EUR/USD

 

EURUSD(106).png

 

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period

Bearish Neutral

Changes in the open interest - 1 578 454 ? - 115 025 ?

Closest resistance levels 1.0668; 1.0690; 1.0720; 1.0745

Closest support levels 1.0634; 1.0613; 1.0583; 1.0541

Trading recommendations

Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.0634, with target points at 1.0613 and 1.0583

Alternative scenario Moving above 1.0668 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0690 and 1.0720

 

GBP/USD

 

GBPUSD(95).png

 

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period

Bullish Neutral

Changes in the open interest + 1 106 ? + 951 ?

Closest resistance levels 1.2227; 1.2262; 1.2290; 1.2327

Closest support levels 1.2158; 1.2133; 1.2098; 1.2076

Trading recommendations

Baseline scenario Long GBP/USD above 1.2227, with target points at 1.2262 and 1.2290

Alternative scenario Moving below 1.2158 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.2133 and 1.2098

 

USD/CAD

 

USDCAD(90).png

 

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period

Bearish Bullish

Changes in the open interest + 182 ? + 554 ?

Closest resistance levels 1.3113; 1.3170; 1.3205; 1.3250

Closest support levels 1.3099; 1.3075; 1.3055; 1.3023

Trading recommendations

Baseline scenario (High risk of reversal) Short USD/CAD below 1.3099, with the target points at 1.3075 and 1.3055

Alternative scenario Moving above 1.3113 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.3170 and 1.3205

 

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GBP/USD after "Hard Brexit" headlines: lower levels in the mid-term?

1/16/2017

 

Monday’s Asian opening was headlined by a strong sell off in GBP across the board, as the currency is digesting the statements from UK PM Theresa May about a possible “hard Brexit”, suggesting that such negotiations will turn into a very difficult process for the United Kingdom to exit from the European Union. We should remember that May will deliver a speech on Tuesday about her Brexit plans. As for now, we’ll have today another key event at 18:30 GMT with a speech coming from the BoE’s Governor Mark Carney and will be interesting to see some hints about current Carney’s concerns on Brexit aftermath.

 

Our technical analysis for GBP/USD at H1 chart is very bearish as the pair tested new historical lows, even lower after those who were reached during last October’s “flash-crash”. However, GBP/USD is extremely oversold and it’s recovering from that sharp decline. It’s possible to see a strong recovery by the pair at least towards the 1.2069 level, where we can expect a resistance to being found, with the next target placed around 1.2131, still below the 200 SMA.

 

GBPUSDH1(11).png

 

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AUD/USD: bears are counting on the wedge

1/16/2017

 

On the daily AUD/USD chart, the bears are trying to use the inside bar and return the quotes below support at 0.7467 (50% of the last medium-term descending wave). If they succeed, risks of decline towards $0.7390 will increase.

 

Screenshot_2017_01_16_08_05_49.png

 

On H1 AUD/USD has every chance to finish the "widening wedge" pattern. Formation of the point 5 and the following retracement towards 23.6%, 38.2% and 50% of the wave 4-5 will be the signal for opening short positions. If all goes well, attack of the bears may bring the prices below 0.7420.

 

Screenshot_2017_01_16_08_06_05.png

 

Recommendation: SELL 0,745 SL 0,7505 TP1 0,7385 TP2 0,7345. 

 

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EUR/USD: bears decided to repeat attack

1/16/2017

 

On the daily EUR/USD chart the inability of the bulls to renew January high led to the formation of the inside bar. During trading on January 13 there was support at 1.0595-1.0600. Its first test was unsuccessful, but in the near term bears will launch another attack.

 

Screenshot_2017_01_16_08_05_15.png

 

On H1 there's a combination of "Three Indians" and 1-2-3 patterns. This is a serious reversal signal. A break of support at 1.06 will trigger the "Bat" pattern and increase the risks of decline towards 1.0470-1.0480.

 


 

Recommendation: SELL 1,06 SL 1,0655 TP 1,048. 

 

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EUR/USD: bearish "Double Top"

1/16/2017

 

16-1-2017-EUR-H4.png

 

The price is still consolidating in a support area. Therefore, buyers are likely going to test the nearest resistance at 1.0650 - 1.0669 in the short term. If we see a pullback from these levels, there’ll be an opportunity to have another decline towards the 89 Moving Average.

 

16-1-2017-EUR-H1.png

 

There’s a possible reversal pattern. So, bulls are likely going to test a resistance at 1.0605 – 1.0669 during the day. However, if a pullback from this area are be on the table, bears will probably try to reach the nearest support at 1.0575 – 1.0551.

 

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GBP/USD: "Breakaway Gap"

1/16/2017

 

16-1-2017-GBP-H4.png

 

There’s a “Breakaway Gap”, so we’ve got a new low. Bulls are likely going to fulfil the gap in the short term, so we should keep an eye on a resistance at 1.2113 as a possible intraday target. Nevertheless, there’s an opportunity to have another decline towards a support at 1.1946 afterwards.

 

16-1-2017-GBP-H1.png

 

The price faced a support at 1.2037, which led to the current consolidation. In this case, bulls are likely going to test a resistance at 1.2113 shortly. Considering a possible pullback from this level, bears could reach the nearest support at 1.1946 soon.

 

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EUR/USD: euro supported by Cloud

1/16/2017

 

Technical levels: support – 1.0570; resistance – 1.0640, 1.0700, 1.0730.

 

Trade recommendations:

 

1. Buy — 1.0570; SL — 1.0550; TP1 — 1.0640; TP2 – 1.0700.

 

Reason: expanding bullish Ichimoku Cloud; a new golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, but the prices are in the correction movement to Kijun-sen; strong support of Kijun-sen.

 

01-eurusdh4(80).png

 

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USD/JPY: on the new local lows

1/16/2017

 

Technical levels: support – 113.80; resistance – 114.50.

 

Trade recommendations:

 

1. Sell — 114.50; SL — 114.70; TP1 — 113.80; TP2 — 113.10.

 

Reason: bearish Ichimoku Cloud, falling Senkou Span A and B; a new dead cross of falling Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, but the prices are on the new lows and market will enter to the oversold area.

 

04-usdjpyh4(67).png

 

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EUR/USD: "Window" acted as a resistance

1/16/2017

 

1601eurusdH4.png

 

The upper “Window” acted as a resistance, so we’ve got a bearish “Doji”, which has been confirmed enough. So, the price is likely going to test the 34 & 55 Moving Averages in the short term. If any bullish pattern arrives afterwards, there’ll be an opportunity to have another upward price movement.

 

1601eurusdH1.png

 

As we can see on the one-hour chart, the price found a lodgement under the closest resistance. Considering that there isn’t any confirmed bullish pattern, the market is likely going to decline towards the lower “Window” and the 144 Moving Average.

 

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USD/JPY: bullish "Engulfing"

1/16/2017

 

1401usdjpyH4.png

 

We’ve got a “Hammer” and a “Harami” patterns, but both of then haven’t been confirmed yet. Therefore, the pair is likely going to test the nearest support level, which could be a departure point for another bullish movement.

 

1401usdjpyH1.png

 

There’re an “Inverted Hammer” and an “Engulfing”, which all have a confirmation. In this case, bulls are likely going to test the 34 Moving Average. If a pullback from this line happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another decline.

 

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EUR/USD: wedge in wave (i)

1/16/20117

 

Image20170116152305001.png

 

There’s a zigzag in wave 2. Previously a wedge in wave 1 has been formed, so bears are likely going to form another impulse in wave . The main intraday target is 1/8 MM Level.

 

Image20170116152305002.png

 

As we can see on the one-hour chart, there’s a small wedge in wave (i). So, there’s an opportunity to have a local upward correction during the day. Nevertheless, bears will probably try to form wave (iii) later on.

 

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CAD/JPY falling inside intermediate impulse wave (3)

1/16/2017

 

CAD/JPY falling inside intermediate impulse wave (3)

Next sell target – 86.00

CAD/JPY has been falling in the last few trading sessions inside the intermediate impulse wave (3), which started earlier from the powerful multi-month resistance level 88.70 (which stopped the previous intermediate correction (2) in April and the active primary impulse wave ?, as can be seen from the daily CAD/JPY chart below). The resistance zone near the resistance level 88.70 was strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger Band.

 

CAD/JPY is likely to correct down further to the next sell target at the support level 86.00 (low of the previous intermediate impulse wave (1), standing close to the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous intermediate ©-wave from November).

 

CADJPY_-_Primary_Analysis_-_Jan-16_1621_

 

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EUR/JPY falling inside minor C-wave

1/16/2017

 

EUR/JPY falling inside minor C-wave

Next sell target - 120.00

EUR/JPY continues to fall inside the C-wave of the active intermediate ABC correction (4) from the middle of December (which started when the pair reversed down from the powerful resistance level 124.00, which has been reversing the price from May).  The price earlier broke the support level 122.00 (which reversed earlier wave A) – which accelerated the active C-wave.

 

EUR/JPY is expected to fall to the next sell target at the next support level 120.00 (target price for the completion of the active intermediate ABC correction (4)).  Strong resistance now stands at the recently broken price level 122.00.

 

EURJPY_-_Primary_Analysis_-_Jan-16_1623_

 

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EUR/GBP & UK CPI for December: Is the opportunity to fill the gap?

1/17/2016

 

The United Kingdom continues to be the headline on the wires during this week, as today at 09:30 GMT we’ll have the UK CPI for December, which is expected to see an increase to 1.4% from 1.2%.This move is likely to happen as recent Sterling’s weakness is helping to increase prices of raw material and it should be noted that the BoE is looking for an inflation’s rising to 2.7% in 2017. Also, we should pay attention to the UK PM Theresa May’s word today at 11:45 GMT about recent Brexit developments.

 

Our technical analysis for EUR/GBP at H1 chart is showing a well-established bullish trend across the board amid the strong bullish gap seen on Monday’s opening. Currently, the pair remains supported by the 0.8773 level and it could help to reach higher levels in the short-term. However, if EURGBP manages to extend its decline in order to fill the gap, it should break below the 0.8747 level and the 50 SMA, looking for the 0.8700 level.

 

EURGBPH1(2).png

 

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EUR/USD: bullish "Flag"

1/17/2017

 

17-1-2017-EUR-H4.png

 

There’s a consolidation, which is taking place between the nearest resistance at 1.0669 and the 89 Moving Average. Also, we’ve got a “Flag” pattern, so bulls are likely going to test a resistance at 1.0697 – 1.0709. If a pullback from this area happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another decline.

 

17-1-2017-EUR-H1.png

 

The price is consolidating in a support area between the levels 1.0655 – 1.0590. Meanwhile, there’s a “Flag” pattern, so the market is likely going to reach the nearest resistance at 1.0697 – 1.0709. Considering a possible pullback from these levels, there’s a chance to have a decline towards a support at 1.0626 – 1.0620 in the short term.

 

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GBP/USD: bulls going to close the gap

1/17/2017

 

17-1-2017-GBP-H4.png

 

The main trend is still bearish. However, we’ve got a “Thorn” and a “V-Bottom” patterns, so the price is likely going to fulfil yesterday’s “Breakaway Gap”. At the same time, bears are likely going to test a support at 1.1986 – 1.1946 later on

 

17-1-2017-GBP-H1.png

 

We’ve got a “Double Bottom” pattern, so the price is likely going to test a resistance area between the levels 1.2170 – 1.2179 during the day. If a pullback from this area happens, bears will probably try to achieve a support at 1.1986.

 

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GBP/USD: correction may finished soon

1/17/2017

 

Technical levels: support – 1.2060; resistance – 1.2150.

 

Trade recommendations:

 

1. Sell — 1.2150; SL — 1.2170; TP1 — 1.2060; TP2 — 1.2030.

 

Reason: bearish Ichimoku Cloud; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, but the lines are horizontal; the prices are under the strong resistance of Kijun-sen.

 

02-gbpusdh4(63).png

 

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AUD/USD: bulls are tested resistance

1/17/2017

 

Technical levels: support – 0.7490; resistance – 0.7530/40.

 

Trade recommendations:

 

1. Sell — 0.7540; SL — 0.7560; TP1 — 0.7490; TP2 — 0.7450.

 

Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud and the rising Senkou Span A and B; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the market is under a strong resistance.

 

03-audusdh4(69).png

 

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EUR/USD: bearish "Engulfing" near the "Window"[/]

1/17/2017

 

1701eurusdH4.png

 

The 21 Moving Average acted as a support, so we’ve got a local “Tweezers” pattern, which led to the last upward price movement. If the pair faces a support on the nearest “Window” bulls are likely going to move on.

 

1701eurusdH1.png

 

We’ve got a bullish “Tweezers”, which has been confirmed. Also, there’s a bearish “Engulfing” at the local high, so the market is likely going to test the lower side of the “Window” during the day.

 

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USD/JPY: bullish "Harami"

1/17/2017

 

1701usdjpyH4.png

 

We’ve got an “Evening Star”, which has been confirmed. However, there’s a bearish “Three Methods” pattern, so the price is likely going to test the nearest “Window”. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another upward price movement.

 

1701usdjpyH1.png

 

The 13 Moving Average acted as a resistance, so we’ve got an “Evening Star” and an “Engulfing”, which both have been confirmed. So, the nearest “Window” is likely going to be acted as a support. If so, bulls will probably try to test the 13 Moving Average once again.

 

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EUR/USD: wave 2 going to move on

1/17/2017

 

Image20170117165325001.png

 

It turns out that wave 2 is going to be continued, because we’ve got a wedge in wave [a]. Therefore, bears are likely going to deliver wave in the short term. If a pullback from 2/8 MM Level happens afterwards, there’ll be an opportunity to have another bullish impulse in wave [c] of 2.

 

Image20170117165325002.png

 

As we can see on the one-hour chart, wave (v) of [a] has just finished, so the price is likely going to form wave (a). The main intraday target is 5/8 MM Level, which could be a departure point for a local correction. 

 

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EUR/NZD falling inside impulse wave 3 and (3)

1/17/2017

 

EUR/NZD falling inside impulse wave 3 and (3)

Next sell target – 1.4730

EUR/NZD has been falling in the last few trading sessions inside the minor impulse wave 3, which started earlier from the resistance zone lying between the pivotal resistance level 1.5220 (top of the earlier (a)-wave from December), upper daily Bollinger Band, 100-day simple moving average and the resistance trendline of the extended daily down channel from last May.

 

EUR/NZD is likely to fall further in the active impulse waves 3 and (3) toward the next sell target at the support level 1.4730 (low of the previous minor impulse wave 1 from December).

 

EURNZD_-_Primary_Analysis_-_Jan-17_1542_

 

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GBP/USD reversed from support zone

1/17/2017

 

GBP/USD reversed from support zone

Next buy target - 1.2450

GBP/USD continues to rise after the earlier upward reversal from the support zone lying between the strong support level 1.2020 (which stopped the previous intermediate impulse wave (1) in October) and the lower daily Bollinger Band. The upward reversal from this support zone stopped the earlier minor impulse wave 3, which belongs to the intermediate impulse wave (3) from December.

 

GBP/USD is expected to rise to the next buy target at the next resistance level 1.2450 (top of the previous minor correction 2, standing close to the 50% Fibonacci correction level of the earlier downward impulse from last month).

 

GBPUSD_-_Primary_Analysis_-_Jan-17_1539_

 

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EUR/USD: bearish "Triple Top"

1/18/2017

 

18-1-2017-EUR-H4.png

 

The last “Flag” has been broken, so the price reached a resistance at 1.0709. Meanwhile, there’s a “V-Top” pattern, which has been confirmed. Therefore, the market is likely going to test the nearest support at 1.0655 – 1.0594 in the short term. If a pullback from this area happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have an upward price movement towards a resistance at 1.0709 – 1.0745.

 

18-1-2017-EUR-H1.png

 

The price faced a resistance at 1.0709, so we’ve got a “Triple Top” pattern here, which led to the current consolidation. In this case, bears are likely going to reach the closest support at 1.0626 during the day, which could be a departure point for another bullish movement.

 

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GBP/USD: "Double Top" stopped bulls

1/18/2017

 

18-1-2017-GBP-H4.png

 

Bulls went through the last “Breakaway Gap” yesterday, so the price faced a resistance at 1.2432, which led to form a “V-Top” pattern. Under this circumstances, bears are likely going to test the 55 Moving Average. If a pullback from this line happens, bulls will probably try to test the nearest resistance at 1.2432 – 1.2468.

 

18-1-2017-GBP-H1.png

 

We’ve got a “Double Top”, so the price is consolidating under a support at 1.2315. Therefore, the market is likely going to decline towards a support area between the levels 1.2271 – 1.2232. However, if we have a pullback from this area, bulls will have a chance to reach a resistance at 1.2432 – 1.2468.

 

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