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EUR/AUD falling inside minor impulse wave (iii)

1/3/2017

 

EUR/AUD falling inside minor impulse wave (iii)

Next sell target - 1.4300

EUR/AUD continues to fall sharply inside the minor impulse wave (iii), which started previously, when the pair reversed down from the resistance zone lying between the resistance level 1.4700 (previous buy target set in our earlier forecast for this currency pair), upper daily Bollinger Band and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the previous sharp downward impulse (i) from September.

 

Having recently broken below the support level 1.4500, EUR/AUD is expected to fall further to the next sell target at the support level 1.4300 (which reversed the pair in the middle of December).

 

EURAUD_-_Primary_Analysis_-_Jan-03_1503_

 

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Happy New Year to all traders!

1/3/2017

 

001-grinch-2-web-5660cdd6c5cbb-5660d9dcb

 

Here is the end of another choppy year that brought a great many of peaks and troughs to our technical charts. There were many joys and sorrows we will be nostalgic for, many turnaround events that will be stamped in our memories. May your gut feeling never go back on you, your setups be always profitable, and your financial accounts get fat next year! 

FX BAZOOKA analytical team wishes you a Happy New Year and sends you this virtual greeting card!

 

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CAD/JPY reversed from support area

1/3/2017

 

CAD/JPY reversed from support area

Next buy target - 88.80

CAD/JPY recently reversed up sharply from the support area lying between the support level 86.00 (which was set as the sell target in our previous forecast for this currency pair). The upward reversal from this support area started the active intermediate corrective wave (2) – which belongs to the primary downward impulse wave ③ from the middle of December.

 

CAD/JPY is expected to rise toward next buy target at the powerful resistance level 88.80 (which reversed the previous corrective waves (2) and ②, as can be seen from the daily CAD/JPY chart below). There is a high probability the pair will reverse down after reaching the resistance level 88.80.

 

CADJPY_-_Primary_Analysis_-_Jan-03_1458_

 

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EUR/USD ahead of FOMC minutes (December): No major hints are expected

1/4/2017

 

During December’s Fed meeting, the central bank decided to hike rates by 25 basis points in a move that was done mainly because the credibility should remain intact in the Fed, despite US election’s outcome. Also, Fed’s Chairwoman Janet Yellen stated that Trump’s victory didn’t influence on the rate increase by the central bank and she added that the economy is strong enough to support a rate hike. Today at 19:00 GMT will be released the FOMC minutes from such meeting.

 

Our technical analysis for EUR/USD at H1 chart is calling for more downsides, as the pair plummeted during Tuesday’s session after strong data from the United States and it’s now testing the support zone of 1.0382. If the pair manages to break below that zone, then we can expect further weakness below the 1.0350 handle. However, if EUR/USD does a rebound over that demand zone, a rally towards the 1.0463 level could be followed in coming days.

 

EURUSDH1(17).png

 

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EUR/USD: local bullish correction is coming

1/4/2017

 

4-1-2017-EUR-W.png

 

The main trend is still bearish, so the price is consolidating under the Moving Averages. Also, there’s a “Triangle”, which lower side has been broken. In this case, the market is likely going to test the nearest support at 0.9859 – 0.9607 in the coming weeks. If we have a pullback from this area, bulls will probably try to test a resistance between the levels 1.0461 – 1.0762.

 

4-1-2017-EUR-D.png

 

As we can see on the Daily chart, bears faced a support at 1.0344, so we’ve got a pullback from this level. Therefore, the price is likely going to reach the closest resistance at 1.0522 – 1.0590 in the short term. Considering a possible pullback from these levels, there’s an opportunity to have another decline afterwards.

 

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GBP/USD: bears going to deliver new low after correction

1/4/2017

 

4-1-2017-GBP-W.png

 

We’ve got a new historical low, so the pair is consolidating. Meanwhile, there’s a “Flag”, so bears are likely going to test the nearest support at 1.1726. In this case, we could have a new low soon. If any bullish pattern arrives later on, there’ll be a chance to have an upward correction. 

 

4-1-2017-GBP-D.png

 

The last “Thorn” pattern led to a bullish correction, which is taking place on the Daily chart. Therefore, the price is likely going to achieve the nearest resistance at 1.2556. If we see a pullback from this level, bears will probably try to get a support at 1.2081 – 1.1726.

 

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EUR/USD: Euro started a new year with falling

1/4/2017

 

Technical levels: support – 1.0400, 1.0360; resistance – 1.0420, 1.0450, 1.0500.

 

Trade recommendations:

 

1. Sell — 1.0450; SL — 1.0470; TP1 — 1.0400; TP2 – 1.0360.

 

Reason: expanding bearish Ichimoku Cloud; a new dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen and the falling Tenkan-sen; the prices are on the new lows since March 2003.

 

01-eurusdh4(74).png

 

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AUD/USD: aussie returned into the Cloud

1/4/2017

 

Technical levels: support – 0.7210, 0.7160; resistance – 0.7245, 0.7275.

 

Trade recommendations:

 

1. Sell — 0.7275; SL — 0.7295; TP1 — 0.7210; TP2 — 0.7160.

 

Reason: bearish Ichimoku Cloud; a cancelled dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen and forming a new golden cross; the prices are in a correctional movement in the Cloud.

 

03-audusdh4(64).png

 

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Key option levels for Wednesday, January 4th

1/4/2017

 

EUR/USD

 

EURUSD(96).png

 

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period

Neutral Neutral

Changes in the open interest - 7 417 ? + 21 502 ?

Closest resistance levels 1.0451; 1.0487; 1.0505; 1.0529

Closest support levels 1.0410; 1.0394(?); 1.0370; 1.0339

Trading recommendations

Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.0410, with target points at 1.0394 and 1.0370

Alternative scenario Moving above 1.0451 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0487 and 1.0505

 

GBP/USD

 

GBPUSD(88).png

 

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period

Neutral Bearish

Changes in the open interest + 97 ? + 32 ?

Closest resistance levels 1.2290; 1.2310; 1.2337; 1.2372

Closest support levels 1.2251; 1.2232; 1.2194; 1.2164

Trading recommendations

Baseline scenario Long GBP/USD above 1.2290, with target points at 1.2310 and 1.2337

Alternative scenario Moving below 1.2251 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.2232 and 1.2194

 

USD/CAD

 

USDCAD(82).png

 

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period

Neutral Bullish

Changes in the open interest + 236 ? + 8 ?

Closest resistance levels 1.3421; 1.3439; 1.3475; 1.3503

Closest support levels 1.3398; 1.3367; 1.3339; 1.3314

Trading recommendations

Baseline scenario Long USD/CAD above 1.3421, with the target points at 1.3439 and 1.3475

Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3398 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.3367 and 1.3339

 

AUD/USD

 

AUDUSD(1).png

 

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period

Bearish Bearish

Changes in the open interest + 163 ? + 386 ?

Closest resistance levels 0.7268; 0.7307; 0.7333; 0.7353

Closest support levels 0.7201; 0.7168; 0.7135; 0.7104

Trading recommendations

Baseline scenario Short AUD/USD below 0.7201, with the target points at 0.7168 and 0.7135

Alternative scenario Moving above 0.7268 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 0.7307 and 0.7333

 

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EUR/USD: bearish "Shooting Star"

 

0401eurusdW.png

 

A bearish trend is still on the table, so the middle of the last huge black candle acted as a resistance. Also, there’s a bearish “Three Methods” pattern. If it confirms, the market is likely going to continue falling down until any bullish pattern arrives.

 

0401eurusdD.png

 

We’ve got a “Shooting Star” at the local high, which has been confirmed enough. However, bulls are likely gong to test the nearest resistance once again. If a pullback from this level happens, bears will probably try to deliver a new low shortly.

 

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USD/JPY: bulls ready to move on

1/4/2017

 

0401usdjpyW.png

 

The price has tested the nearest resistance again, but we still don’t have any bearish pattern. Also, the last candles have been closed under the middle of the huge white candle. In this case, bulls are likely going to break the resistance soon.

 

0401usdjpyD.png

 

We’ve got a correction, which is taking place on the Daily chart. So, there’s bearish patterns such a “Shooting Star”, a “High Wave” and a “Harami”. Meanwhile, there’s an opportunity to have another test of the closest support. If we see a pullback from this level, the last high is likely going to be broken. 

 

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EUR/USD: wave (iii) is about to start

1/4/2017

 

Image20170104152341001.png

 

Wave (i) has ended on 1/8 MM Level, so the price is rising in wave (ii). Previously, we’ve got a zigzag in wave [ii]. So, if a pullback from 2/8 MM Level happens in the short term, bears are likely going to deliver a bearish impulse in wave (iii).

 

Image20170104152341002.png

 

There’re a bearish impulse in wave (i) and a bullish impulse in wave a. So, wave c of (ii) is likely going to test 4/8 MM Level, which could be a departure point for another decline.

 

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AUD/USD reversed from support area

1/4/2016

 

AUD/USD reversed from support area

Next buy target - 0.7320 

AUD/USD continues to rise strongly inside the minor impulse wave (i) – which belongs to the impulse wave 3- which started earlier - when the pair reversed up sharply from the support zone lying between the major support level 0.7150 (low of the earlier intermediate ABC correction (2) from May and the previous sell target set for this currency pair) and the lower daily Bollinger Band. 

 

AUD/USD is expected to rise further in the direction of the next buy target at the resistance level 0.7320 (previous powerful support level from November). Strong support remains at the aforementioned support level 0.7150.

 

AUDUSD_-_Primary_Analysis_-_Jan-04_1624_

 

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AUD/CHF rising inside minor corrective wave 2

1/4/2017

 

AUD/CHF rising inside minor corrective wave 2

Next buy target - 0.7500

AUD/CHF continues to rise inside the minor corrective wave 2, which started earlier - when the pair reversed up from the support zone surrounding the powerful support level 0.7270 (which reversed the price multiple times from July, as can be seen below), lower daily Bollinger Band and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the previous upward impulse from the middle of June.

 

AUD/CHF is expected to rise further toward the next buy target at the resistance level 0.7500 (target price calculated for the termination of the active minor correction 2).

 

AUDCHF_-_Primary_Analysis_-_Jan-04_1624_

 

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EUR/USD: bullish "Thorn"

1/5/2017

 

5-1-2017-EUR-H4.png

 

We’ve got a bullish “Thorn”, which led to the current upward correction. The 89 Moving Average is acting as a resistance. However, bulls are likely going to break the downtrend, so we should keep an eye on the nearest resistance at 1.0655 as a possible intraday target. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a decline towards a support between the levels 1.0461 – 1.0419.

 

5-1-2017-EUR-H1.png

 

The price has broken all Moving Averages. Despite of a resistance at 1.0552, the market is likely going to achieve the next area at 1.0590 – 1.0655 in the short term. Considering a possible pullback from these levels, bears will probably try to reach a support at 1.0524 – 1.0504 afterwards.

 

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GBP/USD: bulls going to break the last high

1/5/2017

 

5-1-2017-GBP-H4.png

 

The pair faced a support at 1.2250 twice, so we’ve got a possible “Double Bottom” pattern. In this case, there’s an opportunity to have a bullish correction towards an area between the 89 Moving Average and the closest resistance at 1.2418. If a pullback from these levels happens, we should keep an eye on a support at 1.2309 – 1.2270 as an intraday target.

 

5-1-2017-GBP-H1.png

 

There’s a “Double Bottom”, which has been confirmed enough, so bulls are pushing the market higher. Also, we’ve got a “Pennant” here. Therefore, the price is likely to continue moving up towards a resistance at 1.2359 – 1.2386. If we see a pullback from this area, bears will probably try to deliver a downward correction in the direction of the nearest support at 1.2323 – 1.2309.

 

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EUR/USD: Euro returned into the Cloud

1/5/2017

 

Technical levels: support – 1.0510, 1.0470; resistance – 1.0610.

 

Trade recommendations:

 

1. Sell — 1.0610; SL — 1.0630; TP1 — 1.0510; TP2 – 1.0470.

 

Reason: bearish mood of Ichimoku Cloud; a new dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, but there is a narrow channel of Tenkan and Kijun; the prices are in the Cloud; strong resistance of Senkou Span B.

 

01-eurusdh4(75).png

 

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GBP/USD: Pound doesn’t want to fall down

1/5/2017

 

Technical levels: support – 1.2300; resistance – 1.2350, 1.2410.

 

Trade recommendations:

 

1. Buy — 1.2300; SL — 1.2280; TP1 — 1.2350; TP2 — 1.2410.

 

Reason: bearish Ichimoku Cloud, but the rising Senkou Span A; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, but the rising Tenkan-sen; the prices are in the Cloud after bouncing from the bottom border of the Cloud.

 

02-gbpusdh4(60).png

 

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Key option levels for Thursday, January 5th

1/5/2017

 

EUR/USD

 

EURUSD(97).png

 

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period

Bullish Neutral

Changes in the open interest + 29 530 ↑ - 17 656 ↓

Closest resistance levels 1.0560; 1.0586; 1.0619; 1.0640

Closest support levels 1.0487; 1.0460; 1.0442; 1.0416

Trading recommendations

Baseline scenario Long EUR/USD above 1.0560, with target points at 1.0586 and 1.0619

Alternative scenario Moving below 1.0487 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.0460 and 1.0442

 

GBP/USD

 

GBPUSD(89).png

 

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period

Neutral Bearish

Changes in the open interest + 286 ↑ + 47 ↑

Closest resistance levels 1.2342; 1.2366; 1.2389; 1.2421

Closest support levels 1.2312; 1.2294; 1.2267; 1.2232

Trading recommendations

Baseline scenario Long GBP/USD above 1.2342, with target points at 1.2366 and 1.2389

Alternative scenario Moving below 1.2312 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.2294 and 1.2267

 

USD/CAD

 

USDCAD(83).png

 

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period

Neutral Bullish

Changes in the open interest + 329 ↑ + 151 ↑

Closest resistance levels 1.3310; 1.3328(?); 1.3369; 1.3396

Closest support levels 1.3270; 1.3243; 1.3221; 1.3196

Trading recommendations

Baseline scenario Long USD/CAD above 1.3310, with the target points at 1.3328 and 1.3369

Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3270 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.3243 and 1.3221

 

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EUR/USD: "Engulfing" stopped bulls

1/5/2017

 

0501eurusdD.png

 

There’s a consolidation, which is taking place on the four-hours chart. Also, we’ve got a “Shooting Star”, but there’s a resistance by the 21 Moving Average. So, the market is likely going to continue moving down until any bullish pattern arrives.

 

0501eurusdH4.png

 

We’ve got a bearish “Engulfing”, cause the price reached an important resistance. In this case, there’s an opportunity to have a local decline. At the same time, bulls are likely going to test the resistance once again.

 

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USD/JPY: bulls going to test "Window"

1/5/2017

 

0501usdjpyD.png

 

We’ve got plenty of bearish patterns such a “Shooting Star”, a “High Wave” and a “Harami”, which all have been confirmed enough. So, the price is likely going to test the nearest support by the last “Three Methods” pattern. If a pullback from this level happens, bulls will probably try to test the last high again.

 

0501usdjpyH4.png

 

The price tested the nearest support twice, so we’ve got a “Hammer”, but this pattern hasn’t been confirmed yet. Therefore, bulls are likely going to get a resistance on the closest “Window”, which could be a departure point for another decline.

 

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EUR/USD: wave (ii) could be continued

1/5/2017

 

Image20170105160313001.png

 

Wave (i) ended on 1/8 MM Level, so we’ve got an upward correction, which is taking place on the four-hours chart. The main target for wave (ii) is 3/8 MM Level, which could be a departure point for another impulse in wave (iii) of [iii].

 

Image20170105160313002.png

 

We’ve got a bullish impulse, which could be wave a. Therefore, bears are likely going to form wave b in the short term. At the same time, if we see a pullback from 3/8 MM Level, there’ll be an opportunity to have bullish wave c of (ii).

 

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EUR/USD reversed from strong support level 1.0400

1/5/2017

 

EUR/USD reversed from strong support level 1.0400

Next buy targets - 1.0600 and 1.0660

EUR/USD continues to rise after the recent upward reversal form the support zone lying between the strong round support level 1.0400 and the lower daily Bollinger Band. The upward reversal from this support zone created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Bullish Engulfing (which is the second consecutive Bullish Engulfing pattern which was formed recently near this support zone).

 

Given the clear bullish divergence that can be seen on the daily Stochastic indicator - EUR/USD can be expected to rise further toward the next buy targets at the resistance levels 1.0600 and 1.0660 (top of the previous minor correction (ii)).

 

EURUSD_-_Primary_Analysis_-_Jan-05_1600_

 

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USD/CHF reached sell target 1.0200

1/5/2017

 

USD/CHF reached sell target 1.0200

Next sell target - 1.0060

USD/CHF continues to fall after the recent breakout of the support level 1.0200, which was set as the sell target in our previous forecast for this currency pair. The breakout of this support level accelerated the active downward correction – which started earlier – when the pair reversed down sharply from the powerful, multi-month resistance level 1.0330, as can be seen from the daily USD/CHF chart below.

 

USD/CHF is expected to fall further in the direction of the next sell target at the pivotal support level 1.0060 (which has been reversing the price from the start of December). Sell stop-loss can be placed above the aforementioned price level 1.0200.

 

USDCHF_-_Primary_Analysis_-_Jan-05_1557_

 

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Your volatility calendar for January

1/5/2017

 

January 6, 15:30 MT time

 

US Nonfarm Payrolls

 

This report is the strongest Forex market mover. The indicator shows how many jobs were created in the US during the past month. Along with NFP the US Department of Labor will publish unemployment rate and average hourly earnings. The Federal Reserve keeps a close eye on these figures while making its monetary policy decisions. As a result, the release has a great impact on the US dollar in all currency pairs.

 

American central bank raised its main interest rate by 25 basis points in December and forecasted 3 rate hikes in 2017. Whether the Fed follows this scenario largely depends on the NFP strength. The Fed’s Chairwoman Janet Yellen claimed that although the state of the US labor market has improved, challenges still remain, so this release will once again draw the market’s attention. 

 

Fotolia_95848309_S.jpg

 

January 11, 11:30 MT time

 

British Manufacturing Production

 

Manufacturing production is one of the main barometers of the UK economic health as it reflects producers’ responsiveness to the changes in the business cycle.

 

To tell the truth, British industrial production remains a cause of concern due to the prolonged uncertainty over the EU-UK trade relationship. Another reason is that the UK industrial sector lacks structural competitiveness. The previous release of the indicator showed a drop in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by the UK manufacturers hinting on the possibility of Britain’s falling into recession after Brexit. The release at 11:30 MT time will surely have an impact on GBP. 

 

January 13, 15:30 MT time

 

US Retail Sales & Producer Prices

 

US retail sales & producer prices are the so-called pace indicators for the US economy. US retail sales data reflect the buying activity of the US citizens, while producer price index shows the changes in the prices of finished goods and services supplied to the market for sales. Higher costs tend to eat into real wages and hit consumers’ purchasing power. Heightened rates of consumer inflation may push the Fed to raise interest rates. All in all, higher readings of these indicators are good for the USD bulls.

 

The release will take place at 15:30 MT time.

 

1x-1.jpg

 

Chinese GDP & Industrial Production

 

China will publish its economic growth data for Q4 and December industrial production at 04:00 MT time.

 

China is the world’s fastest growing economy, so its economic performance matters to all Forex traders. Note that Chinese economy has been experiencing a slowdown during the past several years, so market participants will be keen on finding out whether this trend continues.

 

Risk-sensitive currencies will be most affected by the release. If Chinese figures exceed forecast, we expect Australian and New Zealand’s dollars to strengthen. If the release disappoints, it will be a good time for buying the safe havens like Japanese yen and Swiss franc.

 

January 18, 17:00 MT time 

 

BOC Rate Statement

 

The Bank of Canada (BoC) will announce its interest rate decision at 17:00 MT time. Short-term interest rates represent one of Canadian dollar’s key drivers. 

 

At its December meeting Canadian central bank didn’t change its benchmark rate from 0.50%. The BoC was encouraged by higher oil prices, improving domestic economic data and weaker national currency. 

 

Traders will be looking for hints on the BoC’s future intentions in its monetary policy report, rate statement and the following conference. Currency pairs with CAD will feel the impact of these events.

 

canada-cenbank-bank-of-canada-governor-s

 

January 19, 15:30 MT time

 

ECB Press Conference

 

The European Central Bank’s policy is behind most trends of the single currency. The ECB extended its bond-buying program until December 2017 at its last meeting. This decision provoked a selloff in the euro.

 

Traders are awaiting the press conference of the ECB head Mario Draghi in order to see what’s his take on the European economy and whether the central bank is still confident about the extremely loose monetary policy it has chosen. The press conference is to start at 15:30 MT time.

 

ECB_Press_Conference_pushes_EUR_USD_Lowe

 

January 23, 11:00 MT time

 

German Ifo Business Climate

 

German Ifo business climate will be released at 11:00 MT time. This indicator provides one of the most reliable projections for the country’s future economic growth. Changes in the business sentiment can produce a hefty market impact. The latest report showed that German economy may be back in the fast lane after its recent slowdown. The euro tends to rise if the released figures exceed analysts’ expectations. 

 

January 25, 02:30 MT time

 

Australian CPI

 

Australia releases inflation figures once in a quarter. This release is one of the benchmarks for the policy of the Reserve Bank of Australia. Note that Australian CPI growth picked up in Q2 and Q3 after posting a negative reading in the first 3 months of 2016. If you trade Australian dollar, don’t miss this release!

 

grade-inflation-performance-review-crop-

 

January 26, 11:30 MT time

 

British Prelim GDP

 

British preliminary Q4 GDP will be published at 11:30 MT time.

 

British GDP is the primary indicator of the country’s economic activity. It is believed to be one of the key data releases that impacts the exchange rate of the pound. A reading which is better than the consensus forecast is bullish for the sterling.  

 

Countries-falsifying-economic-data-How-s

 

January 27, 15:30 MT time

 

US Advance GDP

 

This is the broadest measure of American economic activity. It will be the first information about the US economic growth in the last 3 months of 2016. Market participants will scrutinize this macroeconomic gauge, and so it will have a sizeable impact on the US dollar.

 

January 31, 12:00 MT time

 

European CPI Flash Estimate

 

The euro area will release consumer inflation figures for January at 12:00 MT time. Inflation data is important for the euro’s exchange rate as rising prices lead the central bank to raising interest rates. Higher rates, in turn, help to increase demand for the euro making the rate go up. As a result, the release should be a significant driver of EUR/USD, EUR/GBP and other pairs containing the European currency. 

 

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