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NordFX Hits Record for Better Trading Terms


 

 

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At the end of this March, the broker company NordFX has made another improvement in trading conditions, significantly reducing spreads and transaction costs, thanks to which the company's clients have received new additional opportunities to increase their income.

 

The changes have affected two types of trading accounts. The spreads on currency pairs have been reduced by almost 30% on the Pro account, and as for the Zero account with spreads from 0 points, the transaction fee has been reduced from 0.0045% to 0.0035%.

 

Considering the fact that the speed of order execution is less than 0.5 sec and the leverage is up to 1:1000, NordFX clients now have an opportunity to carry out transactions with currencies on terms that are among the most profitable in the financial services market.

 

 

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #forex #forex_forecast #signals_forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

 


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Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for April 01 - 05, 2019


 

 

First, a review of last week’s events:

 

- EUR/USD. Despite the decline in the GDP data, the US dollar has felt pretty confident this week. And it’s not the US President, not the Fed, but, first of all, the Prime Minister and the Parliament of Great Britain, who can’t decide how to get out of the stalemate that they themselves have driven, who are the reason.

Naturally, the ambiguity with Brexit could not but put pressure on the European currency, which has been falling all week. And any attempts of the bulls to change the trend rested on the downward resistance line (1.1447-1.1230). And only on Friday, just before the next vote in the British Parliament, did the pair move to a sideways movement. Thus, starting from March 20, it lost about 235 points, fixing the low at the level of 1.1209, very close to a very important support/resistance level of 1.1200;

 

- GBP/USD. It is not for nothing that the ancient Greeks called Britain Foggy Albion. The British managed to let the Brexit procedure go in so much fog that it’s impossible to see the road from the EU even at arm's length.

As of the end of Friday, March 29, we can state the following. Parliament voted three times against the deal with the EU in the Theresa May version. But it voted against withdrawing without any deal at all as well. The country's leadership should formulate further plans until April 12 or withdraw without a deal (but Parliament is against such an exit). Mrs. May is likely to propose an extension of the Brexit procedure based on article 50 of the European Union Treaty. But then the UK will have to participate in the European election, which is again opposed by the parliamentarians.

Europe does not really understand how to act in a situation of such uncertainty either, which is why an emergency EU summit is being convened. And the British pound has so far rolled down to the lower border of the five-week side corridor 1.2960-1.3350, but did not leave it, having fought off later by 55 points up and having completed the five-day period at the level of 1.3030;

 

- USD/JPY. The dollar strengthening and not reducing risk appetites of investors could not but touch the yen. Recall that 15% of the oscillators on H4 and D1 at the end of last week already gave signals this pair had been oversold, which is a fairly accurate precursor of the trend reversal, and graphical analysis indicated a rise in the pair above 110.75. Everything happened according to this scenario: the pair made a throw to the north, rising from the level of 109.70 to 110.90. The final chord sounded at 110.85;

 

- Cryptocurrencies. Our forecast last week said that, amid the absence of serious news, the BTC/USD pair would not fall below $3,900 but would try to overcome resistance in the $4,200 zone. That's exactly what happened. Having fixed the low at $3,938 on Monday March 25, the pair turned around and was moving upward for all the remaining days, reaching $4,190 by Friday and thus completing the two-week cycle almost at the same place where it began.

Following Bitcoin, Ethereum (ETH/USD) and Litecoin (LTC/USD) demonstrated similar dynamics, having gained almost 100% of their recent losses. And it was only Ripple (XRP/USD) that could not return to the March 16 high, $0.328, and stopped a little below its 10-week Pivot Point $0.318.

 

 

As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

 

- EUR/USD. If the pair overcomes the support level of 1.1200, it will be able to continue moving down. 75% of analysts, 100% of trend indicators and 90% of oscillators on H4 and D1 agree with this. The closest goal is the low of 2018-19, recorded on March 7,1.1175. The following support is located 50 points below.

But, despite this seemingly clear advantage of the bulls, not everything is so straightforward. Already now, 10% of oscillators signal the pair. is oversold. Graphic analysis on D1 also indicates that it will not be able to overcome such a strong support as 1.1175 and will return to the horizon 1.1340. In the medium term, 60% of experts agree with the return to the area of 1.1300-1.1500.

As for economic events, one should pay attention to the publication of statistics on the consumer market in the Eurozone and the United States on Monday, April 1, as well as data on the US labor market (including NFP), which will be released on Friday, April 5. Analysts expect the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector to rise sharply in March compared with February, from 20K to 175K, even though the growth of the average wage will remain at the same level. Such data should strengthen the dollar, but it must be borne in mind that the market very often takes these forecasts into account in advance in its quotes.

1553955944_EURUSD_01.04.2019.png


 

- GBP/USD. At the time of writing, the forecast for this pair is almost one-to-one similar to the forecast for EUR/USD. This also applies to the bearish attitude of 75% of the experts, and the red color of the indicators. In addition to the fog with Brexit, the UK has a very serious trade deficit, the interest rate is low, and the pound is subject to great risks, which is why investors avoid investing in the British economy.

The pound finished the week close to the strong support/resistance level of 1.3000. But, unlike the euro, it is still far away from the lows of 2018-2019. So, a breakthrough below 1.3000 opens the way for the pound to supports 1.2830 and 1.2770.

The similarity with the euro this week concerns both the bearish and the bullish scenarios. Here, oversold signals are signaled by 10% of oscillators, and graphical analysis shows that, after having fallen to 1.2960, the pair will turn up and head towards the center of the five-week side corridor 1.2960-1.3350 in the 1.3150 zone;

 

- USD/JPY. The upcoming movement of this pair can be limited to the channel 109.70-112.15. The pair is practically in its center at the moment, and the only question is where it will move now, down or up.

Most trend indicators and oscillators look to the north at H4, while at D1 they take a neutral position. At the same time, 15% of oscillators on H4 indicate that the pair is overbought.

As for analysts, 65% of them, supported by graphical analysis on H4, have sided with the bears. And 35%, along with graphical analysis on D1, give victory to the bulls;

 

- Cryptocurrencies. Since December 15 last year, the total capitalization of the crypto market has grown by almost 40%, reaching a high of $143.366 billion on Wednesday, March 27. This is undoubtedly a good sign and gives hope that the Bitcoin will manage to overcome the resistance of $4,200 and gain a foothold in the range of $4,200-4,280. Almost 65% of experts agree with this forecast. The next target for the bulls is the zone 4,365-4,385, where the highs of November-December 2018 are located. However, we recall that in the transition to the medium-term forecast, the balance of power changes, and here, as before, 70% of analysts side with the bears, voting for the reduction of the pair to the $3,000 mark.

 

 

Roman Butko, NordFX

 

 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

 

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

 


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Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for April 08 - 12, 2019


 

 

First, a review of last week’s events:

 

- EUR/USD. The vast majority of analysts (75%), supported by 100% of trend indicators and 90% of oscillators, said last week that if the pair overcomes the support level of 1.1200, it will be able to continue moving down. The closest goal is the low of 2018-19, recorded on March 7, 1.1175. At the same time, graphical analysis on D1 stated that the pair would not be able to overcome this support and would return to the horizon 1.1340.

This is what in fact happened. True, the amplitude of oscillations was less than expected: the weekly low was fixed at 1.1183, and the high at 1.1254. As a result, the pair demonstrated the classic sideways trend. Traders even ignored the positive US dollar report on the US labor market, released on Friday, April 5, and the pair completed the working week at 1.1215;

 

- GBP/USD. The behavior of the pair is still dependent on the news of developing political and economic operation called Brexit. News from the “battlefield” - from the Parliament of Great Britain - initially pushed the pound up, since Teresa May promised to hold successful negotiations with the opposition leaders. Investors began to actively buy pounds, and, as predicted by graphical analysis, it quickly reached the center of the five-week side corridor 1.2960-1.3350 at the level of 1.3150.

But the first round of negotiations ended in failure, and investment funds began to close positions on the pound. At the same time, the negative background was supplemented by the news from the European Parliament, which mockingly rubs its hands, watching the rift of the British colleagues. As a result, the trend for this pair changed every two days and, having experienced a series of ups and downs, it put the final point almost at the same place as a week ago, at around 1.3035;

 

- USD/JPY. Recall that at the beginning of the week the pair was practically in the center of the channel 109.70-112.15. And the question was whether it would go down or up. Although only 35% of the experts voted for its growth, declarations of Donald Trump on the successful course of the US and China trade negotiations, and the growth of the US stock market moved the pair up. Having reached a high at 111.80 on Friday, April 5, after a small pullback, the pair completed the five-day week 10 points lower; 

 

- Cryptocurrencies. Our forecast last week said that the bitcoin would be able to overcome the resistance of $4,200 and gain a foothold in the range of $4,200-4,280. But on Tuesday, April 2, the reference cryptocurrency made an unexpected jump and, soaring by 14.4%, broke the bar of $5,000. This movement was the strongest jump since the boom of the end of 2017.

Traders are wondering what is behind this surge, a variety of versions has been expressed. The version voiced by Oliver von Landsberg-Sadie, the head of the BCB Group, in an interview with Reuters, seems most likely. He said that the bitcoin price jump was caused by just one investor, who distributed bids for the purchase of BTC for $100 million on three major exchanges - Coinbase, Kraken and Bitstamp. The total volume of transactions then amounted to about 20.000 BTC, and the total capitalization of the crypto market exceeded $170 billion.

 

 

As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

 

- EUR/USD. On Wednesday, April 10, we are waiting for the next ECB interest rate decision. Most likely, it will remain unchanged. But it became known that the European regulator is actively discussing options for more aggressive stimulation of the economy. This can be either a reduction in rates or an increase in the QE quantitative easing program. This news contributes to the growth of investor interest in shares of European companies and to a fall in interest in the European currency. Also, on Wednesday the meeting of the US Federal Reserve Committee minutes will be published, which should shed light on the further monetary policy of the American regulator.

For the nearest future, the strongest factor putting pressure on the euro, of course, is the tiresome mess with Brexit. Perhaps that is why 60% of the experts, supported by 100% of the indicators and 80% of the oscillators on D1, have voted for a further decline of the pair. The immediate goal is the low of 07 March 2019, 1.1175, the next support was recorded in the summer of 2017. and is located 60 points lower.

40% of analysts preferred the bulls. Moreover, it is already 20% of oscillators on D1 that give signals the pair is oversold. In their opinion, having pushed off support in the 1.1200 zone, the pair will go up to resistance 1.1255 and, in case of a breakthrough, move to the height of 1.1300. The next resistance is 1.1345.

 

- GBP/USD. Interestingly, if most experts believe that Brexit will continue to have a negative impact on the euro, the opinion on the pound is opposite. 65% of analysts expect the upcoming week to strengthen the British currency. Their forecast is based on the fact that the extraordinary meeting of the European Council on April 10 will support the extension of the Brexit procedure for a long time and that the UK’s withdrawal from the EU without a deal on April 12 will not take place. the graphical analysis on D1 is also in solidarity with such a forecast, indicating that the pair is growing, first to the zone of 1.3120, and then to resistances of 1.3200 and 1.3265.    

A fall of the pair is expected by 35% of analysts and 90% of indicators. At the same time, 10% of oscillators are already signaling that the pair is oversold, which indicates the traders' doubts about the future of this pair. Support levels are 1.2975, 1.2900 and 1.2830;  

 

- USD/JPY. Over the past two weeks, the pair has gone from the bottom of the medium-term channel 109.70-112.15 almost to its upper limit, ending the week at 111.70. And 85% of experts are sure that it will definitely test the resistance of 112.15. But those who believe that the pair will be able to rise even higher and reach the level of 113.00, are only 35%. So, the probability that the pair will not go beyond the upper limit of this channel is large enough. 25% of oscillators on D1, which are already in the overbought zone, agree with this. The basic support is Pivot Point of the channel 110.80;

1554559709_USDJPY_08.04.2019.png


 

- Cryptocurrencies. An unexpected bitcoin jump spawned a whole wave of all sorts of events and rumors. Thus, the mysterious creator of Bitcoin Satoshi Nakamoto has reappeared from oblivion. He has re-activated a Bitcointalk account that has been inactive for many years. Over the past 10 years, the identity of Satoshi has not been disclosed, although there are various assumptions about who may be hiding under this mask. Thus, a group of hackers who have hacked several large crypto-exchanges, believes that he is American entrepreneur, inventor and engineer Ilon Musk. In their opinion, the largest transactions with cryptocurrencies (possibly the last one for $100 million as well) were carried out from the Bel Air neighborhood in Los Angeles. And it is there that the legendary founder of SpaceX and Tesla has been living for many years. 

As for the forecast, 70% of analysts believe that the main fluctuations of the BTC/USD pair in the coming week will occur in the range of $5,000-5,500. However, the remaining 30% are confident that a one-time purchase of bitcoins by one investor, even for $100 million, is not a sufficient reason to start a steady bull trend. And so the pair has a lot of chances to go below $4,800 horizon. In this case, the main level of resistance is the $5,100 horizon.

 

 

Roman Butko, NordFX

 

 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

 

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

 


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Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for April 15 - 19, 2019


 

 

First, a review of last week’s events:

 

- EUR/USD. Many traders complain of low volatility in the market. But even despite the pessimism of Mario Draghi shown by him after the ECB meeting on Wednesday 10 April, the euro managed to win back about 100 pips from the dollar over the past week and return to the very strong support/resistance zone of 1.1300, around which the pair started moving back in January 2015. The reason for this is most likely the delay in Brexit.

As a result, the forecast which was given by 40% of analysts, supported by 20% of oscillators signaling that the pair was oversold, turned out to be correct. According to them, having pushed off support in the 1.1200 zone, the pair had to go up to resistance 1.1255 and, in case of a breakthrough, reach the height of 1.1300. And this actually happened;

 

- GBP/USD. The overwhelming majority of analysts (65%) expected the strengthening of the British currency. Their forecast was based on the fact that an extraordinary meeting of the European Council would support a long extension of the Brexit procedure, and that the UK would not withdraw from the EU without a deal on April 12. That is exactly what happened. The British Parliament passed a law prohibiting a no-deal withdrawal, and the European Council delayed Brexit for up to six months. They would have given a longer delay if it were not for Macron, the president of France, who cannot wait to take the second place in the EU, after Germany, after the departure of the islanders.

Graphical analysis on D 1 indicated a level of 1.3120 as the main resistance zone, which the pair reached on Tuesday, April 9, but failed to overcome it after 3 attempts. And in the end it finished the week at 1.3070;

 

- USD/JPY. 85% of the experts were confident that the pair would necessarily test the upper limit of the medium-term channel 109.70-112.15. And on Friday, April 12, it almost reached the target, rising to the height of 112.09. However, before that, the pair dropped to the center line of this channel and, only pushing away from it, showed an impressive rise of 115 points. Such a rise of the pair and the strengthening of the dollar against the yen were caused, according to analysts, primarily by the increase in the yield of long-term US bonds in the last two working days of the week;

 

- Cryptocurrencies. The forecast for Bitcoin was justified by almost 100%. According to 70% of analysts, the main fluctuations of the BTC/USD pair were to occur in the range of $5,000-5,500, where it moved most of the time. Experts also expected bears to try to lower the pair below $4,800, however, all of the attempts were unsuccessful, and the local bottom was fixed at $4,930. As a result, the reference cryptocurrency completed the weekly cycle almost at the same place where it began, in the $5,100 zone.  

It should be noted that $5,100 is exactly the height to which Bitcoin unexpectedly took off on Tuesday, April 2. According to the basic version, that price spike was caused by just one investor, who left bids for the purchase of BTC for $100 million on three major exchanges, Coinbase, Kraken and Bitstamp. And the fact that the bull trend has not found its development testifies in favor of this particular version, since a one-time purchase, even for $100 million, cannot be a sufficient reason to start a steady growth of the market.

And if Bitcoin, as well as Ethereum (ETH/USD), kept in the side corridor, the quotes of Ripple (XRP/USD), Litecoin (LTC/USD), EOS and some other top altcoins went into minus. Just on Thursday, April 11, they sank an average of 10%.

 

 

As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

 

- EUR/USD. If 60% of the trend indicators on D1 are still painted green, the oscillators show a completely different picture: a third of them have acquired a neutral gray color, and another third already signals the pair is overbought. 65% of experts also expect that if not immediately, then by the end of the month, the pair will go down, trying to test again, first the April 2 low - 1.1183, and then the March 07 low, 1.1175. The nearest support is 1.1250;   

At the same time, graphical analysis on H4 suggests that before heading south, the pair may rise for a while above the level of 1.1300, reaching the height of 1.1350. The next target of the bulls is 1.1420;

1555161320_EURUSD_15.04.2019.png


 

- GBP/USD. Experts believe that the euphoria caused by the Brexit delay will quickly subside, and the pair will stay in a side trend for some time, moving within 1.2985-1.3150. The nearest support is 1.3050, the resistance is 1.3120. However, in the transition to the medium-term forecast, it is already 60% of analysts who have sided with the bulls, expecting the strengthening of the British pound and the pair’s transition to the 1.3200 -1.3350 zone. But the accuracy of this forecast again depends on what will happen around Brexit. There remains a risk of a second referendum, which may entail both a refusal of Brexit in general and, conversely, a British exit from the EU without an agreement. Any news and rumors on this subject can quickly turn the trend in one direction or another, but for now the demand for British currency remains very weak; 

 

- USD/JPY. The bull scenario remains a priority: 70% of the experts, supported by 100% of the trend indicators, look to the north. According to them, if the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds continues to grow, the pair, relying on support around 112.00, can rise to the area of 113.00-114.20.

However, since at the moment the pair is in the reversal zone near the upper boundary of the medium-term channel 109.70-112.15, a downward rebound of the pair is not excluded, as evidenced by signals from 25% of oscillators indicating it is overbought. Support levels are 110.85, 110.35 and the lower boundary of the channel is 109.70. USD/JPY quotes can also be affected by US-Japanese trade negotiations at the beginning of the upcoming week;

 

- Among other events to which attention should be paid are the following publications: data on the UK labor market and the index of business sentiment ZEW (Germany) on Tuesday, April 16; China's GDP, the UK Consumer Price Index and the Eurozone Inflation Report on Wednesday April 17; UK and US retail sales data on Thursday, April 18; and finally, Japan's consumer price index on Friday, April 19; 

 

- Cryptocurrencies. In general, the news background around the main cryptocurrency is quite positive. The Bitcoin network has overcome another milestone. Over the entire history of the first cryptocurrency, its blockchain has processed more than 400 million transactions. At the moment, the network processes about 350 thousand transfers per day or 14.9 thousand per hour. Approximately 81.5 thousand BTC moves every 60 minutes, and the average transaction size is 5.44 BTC.

Financial analyst and co-founder of Fundstrat Global Advisors Tom Lee said optimistically in an interview with Bloomberg that Bitcoin is back in a bullish trend and the fair price for it today is $14,000. However, not everyone shares his attitude. For example, Brian Armstrong, the head of Coinbase Exchange, believes that the mass influx of investors into the crypto sphere will begin only after three main tasks related to digital assets have been solved. This is the scalability, usability and Bitcoin volatility.

If we talk about a medium-term forecast, the majority of analysts (70%) believe that the BTC/USD pair will necessarily reach $6,000. However, in the coming days, it is likely to move in the range of $4,935-5,335, making attempts to break through these boundaries in one direction or another. So, considering emissions, the range of fluctuations can be expanded to $4,600-5,500.

 

 

Roman Butko, NordFX

 

 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

 

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

 


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The Range of Services NordFX Offers to its Clients Is Enriched with One of the Most Popular Investment Services, PAMM Accounts


 

 

Starting this April, NordFX clients can use one of the most popular and time-tested methods of trust management - PAMM-accounts (Percent Allocation Management Module).

 

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This is one of the most sought-after brokerage services, since transferring funds to be managed by one or more professional traders, who receive remuneration as a percentage of profits, is an effective tool for passive earnings for investors, ensuring a substantial protection of their capital.

 

NordFX PAMM service offers some of the best terms in the market as well as a wide range of trading tools available on Pro and Zero accounts, including 33 currency pairs, metals, 15 crypto pairs, 4 crypto currency indexes, and CFD contracts for major world stock indices and oil. 

 

Trading is carried out on the MetaTrader-4 platform. The maximum leverage available on PAMM accounts is 1:1000. The minimum non-withdrawable amount of the manager’s own investments is $50. There are no requirements from the company for investors, and the managing trader determines the minimum amount for investments, as well as other terms, in his offer.

 

You can learn more about the principles of the PAMM-service in the Trader's Cabinet in the “Investment Products” section at https://account.nordfx.com/account/pamm/. You can also open a corresponding account there by registering as a manager or as an investor.

 

 

#pamm #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #forex #forex_forecast #signals_forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

 


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Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for April 22 - 26, 2019


 

 

First, a review of last week’s events:

 

- EUR/USD. Most experts (65%) expected that the pair would go down. This forecast was supported by signals from a third of the oscillators indicating that the pair was overbought. All this happened: the weekly amplitude of fluctuations was about 100 points, and the low was fixed at 1.1225.

Perhaps the fall of the euro on Thursday, April 18, would not have been so strong if it had not been for the short working week before Catholic Easter, when many banks and exchanges were closed on Good Friday. The main reasons for the fall were disappointing market data on business activity in the Eurozone and dollar-friendly data on retail sales in the United States.

On Friday evening, the European currency, however, managed to win back some of the losses, and the pair completed the week at 1.1240; 

 

- GBP/USD. This pair showed a slightly larger amplitude - 140 points. At the same time, the experts indicated the precise low to which it should sink. Actually, with the forecast at 1.2985, the pair felt the bottom at the horizon 1.2978 - inside the support zone, which it has been unsuccessfully trying to break through for two months already;     

 

- USD/JPY. Some experts expected the growth of this pair, some thought it would fall. However, fluctuations with a maximum range of 40 points can hardly be attributed to bullish or bearish trends. For the whole week, we were able to observe the classic sideways trend, which started at 112.00 and ended at 111.92;

 

- Cryptocurrencies. As has been said many times, the cryptocurrency movement is largely motivated by the news background, which this week was mildly positive. The "guru" Involved in the crypto business continued to repeat the mantra of the imminent rise of Bitcoin. For example, Tom Lee, a former financial analyst at JPMorgan, and now co-founder of Fundstrat Global Advisors, said that given the success of the first cryptocurrency this spring, Bitcoin's exchange rate to the dollar will show growth throughout the year and reach $10,000 by its end. And according to the head of the BitMEX exchange Arthur Hayes, in just a few years we will see BTC/USD quotes around $50,000. The main positive news of the week, in our opinion, was the message that the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund jointly launched an internal cryptocurrency. So far, only for the educational purposes of their employees. But as they say, the first step is the hardest.

As for our forecast, it came true almost 100%: the standard cryptocurrency stayed in the range of $4,975-5,370, adding about 3.5% over the week. Ethereum (ETH/USD) and Litecoin ((LTC/USD) showed an increase of about 4%, but the growth of Ripple (XRP/USD) was less than 2%.

 

 

As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

 

- EUR/USD. The world economy is moving towards recession, and much in Europe depends on how well EU leaders can withstand the negative trends. It is not only about how the political situation will develop in the EU countries, and not only about how the ECB will behave in an effort to stabilize the economic situation in the euro area, but also about how, for example, the US-China trade negotiations will end and how President Trump will behave after that. Many analysts believe that today, Europe is prepared for the global economic recession and external attacks worse than other economic blocs.

The past week brought the euro back within the 15-week downward channel. And 70% of experts, supported by graphical analysis on H4, believe that the European currency will continue to give up its positions, falling to the zone of the 2019 lows - 1.1175-1.1185. It is only 30% of analysts that hope that the pair will be able to return to 1.1325. At the same time, attention should be paid to the data on the US GDP, which will be published on Friday, April 26. According to forecasts, the GDP growth will be only 1.8%, which is significantly lower than the previous value of 2.2%. If this prediction turns out to be correct, bulls can move the pair to the next target at the height of 1.1420;

 

- GBP/USD. The pair completed the previous five days in the support zone of 1.2975, which it has been trying to break through for eight weeks already. Most experts (75%) believe that it will succeed and will be able to descend to the zone of 1.2770-1.2830. However, some analysts hope that amid the dovish rhetoric of the ECB and the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of England will nevertheless decide to raise the interest rates. One can add to this the still persistent euphoria caused by the delay of Brexit. taken together, these factors let the bulls hope for the pair to return above the 1.3100 mark. The nearest resistance levels are 1.3130 and 1.3200. It is only 25% of analysts who agree that this will happen next week. But in the transition to the monthly forecast, 60% of the experts and graphical analysis on D1 side with the bulls. As for the readings of oscillators, 15% of them signal that the pair is oversold, which means, if not a complete reversal of the trend, then at least a quick correction of the pair upwards;

1555766346_GBPUSD_22.04.2019.png

 


 

- USD/JPY. We expect the Bank of Japan’s interest rate decision and a press conference on the monetary policy of this Bank on Thursday, April 25. However, both of these events are unlikely to present any surprises. The side trend of this pair is also not conducive to forecast accuracy. That is why analysts' opinions on its behavior in the next five days have been divided almost equally: a third are for for its growth, a third are for a fall, and a third are for a continuation of the lateral movement. However, in the longer term, 65% of the experts, supported by graphical analysis on D1, vote for the pair to fall. 25% of oscillators also give signals that it is overbought. At the moment, the pair is still in the reversal zone near the upper boundary of the medium-term channel 109.70-112.15, and, in the case of its downward movement, the targets for it will be the support levels 110.85, 110.35 and the lower boundary of the channel 109.70.

If the dollar continues to grow against the Japanese currency, then its immediate task will be to consolidate in the zone of 112.20-113. 25 The next resistance is at 113.70;

 

- Cryptocurrencies. Despite a more or less positive news background, 65% of experts remain pessimistic, believing that in the near future the BTC/USD pair will not be able to break through the resistance of $5,500. Moreover, according to their forecasts, bears will have a certain advantage in this market, pressing the pair to support $4,600. However, during the transition to the medium-term forecast, the alignment of forces changes to the opposite, and here already 60% of analysts believe that Bitcoin quotes at $5,750-5,800 are realistic.

 

 

Roman Butko, NordFX

 

 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

 

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

 


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Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for August 05 - 09, 2019

 
First, a review of last week’s events:
 
- USD. Two events took place last week, more precisely on Thursday 01 and Friday 02 August, that could shake the markets. But they did not shake them.
On Thursday, for the first time since 2008, the US Federal Reserve lowered its key rate from 2.50% to 2.25%. The event was quite expected. Markets usually react to such a move, by dropping quotes. However, in this case, instead of falling, the dollar rose, although not by much (the increase against EUR was a little more than 100 points) and not for long (as of Friday, the euro won back 85 points).
The main reason for the growth of the American currency was the comment by Jerome Powell, in which the Fed chief said that this rate cut by 25 basis points would not necessarily mark the beginning of a consistent easing policy. Indirectly, his words were confirmed by the fact that the rate was reduced by only 0.25%, and not by 0.50%, and two FOMC members voted against any reduction.
Thus, the Federal Reserve was the least “soft” against the background of the central banks of other countries pursuing a policy of easing, which led to a short-term growth of the dollar.    
The second planned event was the release of statistics on the US labor market. As predicted, NFP fell slightly (from 193K to 164K), to which the market reacted rather sluggishly, especially since the main newsmaker at the end of the week was - unexpected for many! - Donald Trump. (Well, who can do without him!)
For a start, the US president called Powell's behavior a betrayal, and then put an end to the fragile truce in the US-China trade war, announcing the introduction of a 10% duty on Chinese goods worth $300 billion on September 1. Such a move by Trump sharply increased the chances further easing of the Fed’s monetary policy, in spite of Powell's statements. Thus, the probability of the next rate reduction in September increased from 64% to 92%, in December - from 42% to 75%.
The threat of a new round of hostilities in the war with China brought down the American stock market, and investors once again turned their attention to a safe haven currency such as the Japanese yen, which strengthened against the dollar by 275 points at the end of the week;
 
- Cryptocurrencies. Without a doubt, Bitcoin was, is and will be the digital currency number 1, which reigns at the crypto market, making up the bulk of its capitalization and determining the trends and quotes of the vast majority of altcoins. And although sometimes there are voices offering to give, for example, Ethereum the status of a full-fledged coin, placing it next to Bitcoin, this is unlikely to happen in the foreseeable future.
As for the news background, which often defines a particular trend, it has recently become quite ambiguous. Thus, the largest social network Facebook has declared that the launch of the project of its own digital currency Libra may be canceled due to significant pressure from the regulator, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
On the one hand, it seems to be good for Bitcoin: there will be one strong competitor less. On the other hand, after crushing Libra, the authorities can firmly take on the crypto market as a whole. Calls on this matter do not stop for a minute. For example, The United States Revenue Service (IRS) has recently sent letters to more than 10 thousand investors demanding to include information about cryptocurrency assets in their tax return, otherwise violators will be fined.
In the meantime, the pair BTC/USD continues to move in the side channel, trying to overcome the resistance of $10,500. Major altcoins, including Litecoin (LTC/USD), Ethereum (ETH/USD) and Ripple (XRP/USD), are also moving in a sideways trend with low volatility. It can be assumed that the main reason for such calm is the middle of summer, when investors, legislators, and even tax inspectors go on vacation. Although it may be just a lull before the next storm. 
 

As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:
 
- EUR/USD. The pair in its fall is now close to Pivot Point 2015-2016. And, although the rebound up on Friday, August 02, colored the indicators on H4 in a neutral gray color, 90% of the oscillators and trend indicators on D1 still insist on the continuation of the downward trend. 65% of experts agree that the American currency still has potential for growth, and it will continue to put pressure on the euro. The immediate goal for the pair is 1.0950, the next one is 100 points lower.
At the moment, only 35% of analysts turned out to side with the bulls, however, in anticipation of easing the monetary policy of the Fed, when moving to the medium-term forecast, their number rises to 55%.
If we turn to the indications of graphical analysis, it draws first the movement of the pair in the range of 1.1070-1.1165 on H4, and then its growth to the horizon of 1.1225. The next resistance is at 1.1285;
 
- GBP/USD. Since April 2018, the British currency weakened against the US dollar by 2,300 points. The last days did not become an exception: the pound lost 430 points since July 25. The reason is the same, Brexit. The coming to power of Boris Johnson and his promise to part with the EU on October 31 on a “tough” scenario make investors nervous and the pound fall.
75% of experts expect to see the pair in the 1.2000 zone soon. And if it manages to break through this support, it will be able to “fly” down another 100-150 points. This development is supported by 95% of the trend indicators and 90% of the oscillators on D1. 
The remaining 10% of oscillators give signals about the pair being oversold. A respite is also expected by graphical analysis on D1 and by 25% of analysts, according to whom the pair can go to a side movement in the channel 1.2100-1.2250 for a while. In the case of any positive news regarding Brexit, growth of the pair to the level of 1.2375 is not excluded.
As for the medium-term forecast, according to 70% of analysts, the Bank of England will eventually be forced to acknowledge the serious risks of a “tough” exit from the EU and sharply tighten monetary policy. Thus, it will be the only large central bank to raise interest rates, which should lead to an increase in quotations of the British currency and their rise above the level of 1.2800. However, this can happen only when at least the basic conditions for the British exit from the EC become known;
 
- USD/JPY. The escalation of trade confrontation between the United States and China and the reduction in the interest rate on the US dollar increase the attractiveness of the yen as a safe haven currency. Therefore, 60% of analysts expect the pair to continue to decline in an effort to reach the January 2019 low around 105.00. 100% of the trend indicators and 85% of the oscillators on D1 also look to the south. However, 15% of oscillators are already giving signals about the pair being oversold. Resistance levels are 107.80, 109.00 and 110.00;

1564853587_USDJPY_05.08.2019.png


 
- Cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin holders try to find any arguments to push it up. Any reasons are suitable for this, even the Fed's interest rate cut: having lost interest in the dollar, investors will start investing in more profitable and risky assets, like Bitcoin. Although, if you think about it, what prevented them from doing so before? The rate cut by 0.25% is a very weak argument in this case.
Billionaire and head of the crypto-bank Galaxy Digital Mike Novograz said in an interview with Bloomberg that the price of Bitcoin will rise again to the historical maximum of $20 thousand per unit before the end of this year. At the same time, he does not exclude that in the course of bidding quotations may drop to $8,500 for 1 BTC. And popular presenter Joe Kernen has announced on CNBC television channel the rise of BTC to $55,000. In May 2020, bitcoin mining will be halved, which, in his opinion, should lead to a rapid increase in the value of the coin, thanks to its aggressive purchases before halving.
As for short-term forecasts, despite the fact that Bitcoin reached $10,650 on August 2, it will be possible to talk about the transition to sustainable growth only after the BTC/USD pair has confidently crossed the $11,000 mark. In the meantime, experts are divided into two equal camps. But all of them, both optimists and pessimists, call the horizon $10,000 as a Pivot Point.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

https://nordfx.com/

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Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for August 12-16, 2019

 
First, a review of last week’s events:
 
- USD/EUR. The pair is consolidating in the zone of a strong support/resistance level around 1.1200. In general, the zone 1.1150-1.1215 is quite significant for this pair, since it can be called the main Pivot Point of 2015-2016. And now, after three years, the pair has once again fallen into this range, which may indicate some confusion in the market.
Uncertainty factors are many.
Firstly, this is the beginning of another round in the US-China trade war. Introducing 10 percent duties on the next group of Chinese goods from September 1, the US president did not stop there, he called China “currency manipulator” and is planning to postpone the issuance of licenses for US companies to trade with Huawei.
In addition to the external war, Trump has to wage an internal war, with his own Fed. He wrote in his Twitter on Thursday August 08: “Our companies are the greatest in the world, there is nobody even close, but unfortunately the same cannot be said about our Federal Reserve. They have called it wrong at every step of the way...". It is about stimulating the American economy, which is one step away from the recession, for which Trump blames the strong dollar. “The Fed’s high interest rates,” he writes, “in comparison to other countries, is keeping the dollar high, making it more difficult for our great manufacturers...to compete on a level playing field.”
So, the market expects steps from the US leadership aimed at preventing an industrial downturn. But the ECB is expected to take the same steps, since the Eurozone economy, undermined by economic wars and political instability within the EU, is not in the best condition either, and the yield of German bonds have reached record lows. However, lowering the interest rate for the euro is a double-edged sword. By stimulating industrial growth, this step will create serious problems for the banking system in Europe. According to Bloomberg experts, lowering the rate on euro deposits to -0.5% will increase banks' expenses associated with servicing negative rates by 60%.
Investors are not happy with the ongoing drop in oil prices either. Saudi Arabia is making a lot of efforts to maintain the price of “black gold” at least at the current level, but the results of these steps remain doubtful;
 
- GBP/USD and USD/JPY. Most experts had expected a decline on both of these pairs. And if you look at the results of the week, the forecast turned out to be correct on the whole, although not one of them reached its goals. Thus, 75% of analysts expected to see GBP/USD around 1.2000, but the week low was fixed slightly higher, at the level of 1.2025. Thus, the loss of the British pound against the dollar amounted to about 135 points.

- As for USD/JPY, unlike the pound, the yen continued to strengthen against the US currency. Analysts (60%) had expected the pair to be able to reach the January 2019 low at around 105.00. However, the fall was stopped at the horizon of 105.40 (minus 120 points during the week) , after which there was a rebound upwards, and the pair completed the five-day period at 105.65;
 
- Cryptocurrencies. Former CEO of Google and Facebook, Avichal Garg, is sure that the real dominance of bitcoin in the cryptocurrency market is much higher than the figure published by cryptocurrency services, and actually exceeds 75%. According to Garg, it is necessary to revise the current measurement standards, since now they take into account the huge number of altcoins with zero liquidity. And it is not at all excluded that soon we will see the share of bitcoin exceed the mark of 80%, or even 90%. An argument in favor of this development is that BTC is gradually becoming a very popular safe haven asset.  “Bitcoin has proven to be a hedge against global risks, because it shows a positive correlation with gold and a negative correlation with the stock markets,” said Tom Lee, co-founder and senior analyst at Fundstrat, in an interview with CNBC. And, looking at the charts of the last week, one cannot disagree with him. Usually, top altcoins repeated the dynamics of the main cryptocurrency. Now, despite the fact that the BTC/USD pair has shown steady growth, adding about $1,500 during the week and gaining a foothold in the $11,550-12,120 zone, the main altcoins, including Litecoin (LTC/USD), Ethereum (ETH/USD) and Ripple (XRP/USD), finished the week in the red zone. Although, of course, it is too early to bury them completely. According to some experts, several alternative cryptocurrencies (for example, Ethereum) can become stand-alone blockchains, ceasing to be considered altcoins. The rest will go into oblivion as unnecessary.
 

As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:
 
- EUR/USD. If on H4 both trend indicators and oscillators are still pointing north, D1 has a completely different picture: about half of the indicators are colored red, and another 15% of the oscillators give signals that the pair is overbought. Graphical analysis on H4 and 60% of experts sided with the bears as well, they expect that, having pushed off the resistance of 1.1200, the pair will once again test support in the zone of 1.1025. In their opinion, the euro quotes at 1.1200 are now supported mainly due to the growth of interest in protective assets. However, the fragile balance, in addition to the situation with Brexit and a new aggravation of the political situation in Italy, can be disturbed even by weak data on GDP growth in the Eurozone, which will be released on Wednesday, August 14.
A reduction in the state budget deficit and positive data on inflation in the USA can also play a role in strengthening the dollar. What these numbers will actually be will be announced on Monday, August 12 and Tuesday, August 14, respectively. 
The remaining 40% of analysts vote for the growth of the pair to the zone 1.1275-1.1345. Their forecast is based on the expectation of a recession and a further decline in interest rates in the United States. Thus, Wall Street Journal analysts estimate the chances of a recession over the next 12 months at 33.6% (a year ago it was18.3%), which is the highest rate since 2011. And predicting a change in the rate, experts believe that by the end of 2019 it will fall from 2.25% to 1.85%;

1565438402_EURUSD_12.08.2019.png


 
- GBP/USD. On Tuesday morning, August 13, the UK will present a portion of labor market data that is expected to be neutral at best and weak at worst. As for inflation, its indicators, which will be released on August 14, are likely to remain at the same level. In general, experts are not expecting any significant changes in the pound this week, and therefore their forecast can be classified as neutral.
As for the technical analysis, 100% of the trend indicators and most of the oscillators on H4 and D1 are colored red. Graphical analysis also Indicates to a continued fall of the pair. Moreover, it is already 25% of the oscillators that indicate overselling of the pair, which is a strong signal for a trend reversal and upcoming correction.
Support Levels: January 2017 lows - 1.1985 and October 2016 lows - 1.1945. Resistance Levels: 1.2210, 1.2415, 1.2525;
 
- USD/JPY. As already mentioned, the desire of investors to shelter their capital in quiet harbors continues to grow. And 35% of analysts are sure that the Japanese currency will continue to play the role of such a harbor, and therefore the fall of the pair will continue until the January 3, 2019 low at the level of 105.00. Next support is March 2018 low 104.60. Graphical analysis on Н4, as well as 85% of oscillators and 100% of trend indicators on Н4 and D1 agree with this scenario.
30% of the experts were not able to give a forecast, and the remaining 35%, together with a graphical analysis on D1, voted for the trend to reverse upward and the pair to rise to the zone 107.00-108.00. Such a scenario is also supported by 15% of the oscillators, giving signals of the pair being oversold.
It should be noted that in the transition from a weekly to medium-term forecast, the number of bull supporters among experts increases sharply, from 35% to 65%, and the height of 109.00 is called the main goal; 
 
- Cryptocurrencies. Tom Lee is confident that, having become, along with yen and gold, a safe haven asset, Bitcoin will be able to rise to $20,000. A similar point of view has been expressed by Anthony Pompliano, co-founder of Morgan Creek. According to him, central banks will begin to massively buy bitcoins in the near future in order to hedge dollar risks, which appeared against the backdrop of tensions between the United States and China. The “epidemic” of lowering interest rate regulators will positively affect the quotes of the first cryptocurrency. Another strength of Bitcoin is its projected emission and limited supply.
The reference cryptocurrency has grown by 93% in three months and now its immediate task is to update the highs of June 2019 in the $14,000 zone. More than 70% of experts agree with this forecast, although, in their opinion, this could happen by the end of August. In the next week, the pair will perhaps continue to move along the horizon of $12,000.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

https://nordfx.com/

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Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for August 19 - 23, 2019

 
First, a review of last week’s events:
 
- EUR/USD. As expected by most experts, supported by graphical analysis, the dollar went up last week, while the EUR/USD pair went down along with the euro. True, it did not reach the set target, the low of August 1, 1.1025, having found the local bottom at the level of 1.1065.
The reason for the fall of the European currency was in the first place, "doves" promises by the general director of the Bank of Finland and former candidate for the ECB Olli Rehn. According to the statement of this prominent European official, it is already in September that the market expects a reduction in the key rate by 0.1 (and possibly by 0.2) percentage points (now it is -0.4%), as well as the resumption of the QE quantitative easing program in volume about 50 billion euros monthly.
In addition, not the best economic statistics from Germany and China and the unexpected growth in US retail sales played in favor of the dollar. The market had been expecting this indicator to decline from 0.7% to 0.3%, but it rose to 1.0%.

- GBP/USD. Last week, analysts did not expect any significant changes in the British pound, so their forecast was classified as neutral. As for technical analysis, 25% of the oscillators on H4 and D1 gave signals about the overselling of the pair, which, as practice shows, is a strong signal for a trend reversal and upcoming correction. This was what happened: having rebounded from the level of 1.2015, the pair went north, fixing the week’s high at 1.2175 on Friday. The final five-day chord sounded in the 1.2140 zone, which can be called the Pivot Point of the first week of August; 

- USD/JPY. A third of analysts, supported by 85% of the oscillators and 100% of the trend indicators on H4 and D1, were sure that the Japanese currency would continue to play the role of a quiet refuge from currency storms, and therefore the pair would continue to fall to the low of January 3, 2019. at the level of 105.00. That was what happened, and it was already on Monday, August 12, that the pair approached this mark.
Another third of the experts and graphical analysis on D1 had voted for the trend to turn up and lift the pair to the height of 107.00, which it reached the next day, on Tuesday, August 13.
The ending of the week satisfied the remaining third of specialists, who had taken a neutral position. If you look at the graph of the last two weeks, you can see that the pair moved to the side channel 105.00–107.00 and completed the working session closer to its center, at 106.35. Thus, all three scenarios can be considered fulfilled - bearish, bullish and neutral;
 
- Cryptocurrencies. Crypto enthusiasts, such as Fundstrat analyst Tom Lee or Morgan Creek co-founder Anthony Pompliano, continue to attempt to raise Bitcoin status, claiming it has already become a safe haven asset, along with gold or the Japanese yen. And here it is questionable, what kind of refuge it is, if only from August 08 to 15 this digital currency lost more than 20% of its value, collapsing from $12,000 to $9,500?
With such frenzied volatility, Bitcoin is not a safe haven, but an ideal tool for high-risk speculation. Well and a refuge as well, but not from fluctuations in traditional financial markets, but from ... its younger colleagues in the digital market, altcoins, the interest in which is constantly falling.
If you look at the dynamics of the altcoin market, starting from the peak on June 26, its capitalization fell from $124 to $79 billion, that is, more than 36%. Losses of bitcoin are twice lower :18% (drop from $229 to $187 billion). Accordingly, investors are gradually losing interest even in top coins such as Ethereum (ETH), Ripple (XRP) and Litecoin (LTC), switching their attention to bitcoin (BTC), whose market share has already exceeded 70%.
 

As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:
 
- EUR/USD. On one European scale, there is a slowdown in the economic growth of the EU’s most important partner - China, weak economic performance in Germany, problems of Italy and Brexit. On the other, the American one, macro statistics from the United States are pleasing to the eye and the Fed’s leadership claims that the American economy is on a solid foundation and that it doesn’t fear any trade wars. It would seem that the answer to the question on which side the advantage should be is clear: on the side of the dollar. That is exactly what 65% of experts believe, supported by almost 100% of oscillators and trend indicators on H4 and D1. The immediate goal is support in the zone 1.1000–1.1025, after breaking through which there will be only 1000 points to 1: 1 parity. At the current rate of decline, it may take a little over a year to overcome this distance. (Recall that the pair was already dropping to the level of 1.0350 in December 2016).
However, if you imagine other scales, everything becomes not so obvious. So, on one, European, scale there is the decrease in the euro interest rate announced by Olli Rehn for September and the resuscitation of the QE program. And on the US scale - the expectation of a recession in the US economy, Donald Trump's discontent with the actions of the Fed and, as a result, a possible reduction in the dollar rate by the end of 2019 from 2.25% to 1.85%. If the head of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell succumbs to pressure from the US president, a trend reversal upward and the pair's rise to marks in the zone 1.1300-1.1400 are not excluded. And if in the near future it is 35% of analysts who do not exclude such an opportunity, in the medium term their number increases to 55%.
According to experts, the results of the Fed meeting on Wednesday, August 21 and the annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, which will also be held next week, should give some clarity about the US financial policy. In addition, the report on the ECB meeting on monetary policy, which will be released on Thursday, August 22, is of great interest;   
 
- GBP/USD. A rather interesting situation has developed in the UK. On the one hand, production is declining, falling by 0.6% compared to last year. On the other hand, instead of the retail sales drop of 0.3% expected in July, their growth by 0.2% was noted. This may indicate that, watching the fall of the pound and fearing the consequences of Brexit, the country's residents prefer shopping rather than financial savings.
It is not clear how long this situation will last. We need to wait for the steps of the new Prime Minister Boris Johnson and the reaction of the British Parliament to them. Until this happens, the respite that the pair has taken in its fall will, according to the majority (65%) of experts, continue, and the pair will stay in the side channel 1.2000–1.2200. The closest support level is 1.2050, resistance is 1.2175.
As for the graphic analysis, both on H4 and D1, after several days of movement in the side corridor, it predicts the pair will fall to the October 2016 low in the zone 1.1900–1.1940;
 
- USD/JPY. The decision of the US authorities to postpone the introduction of additional duties on Chinese imports did not help the dollar much: investors still strongly doubt the peaceful end of the US-Chinese trade war. So, the yen will continue to play the role of a quiet financial haven. The expectation of a coming recession in the US economy and lower interest rates by the US Federal Reserve also plays against the dollar. Added to this is a drop in yields on 10-year US bonds, which have already fallen to 1.6%. Moreover, the yield spread of these securities has fallen below zero. Which, in theory, should lead to further strengthening of the Japanese currency and a decrease in the pair. However, experts supported by graphical analysis on H4 are inclined to believe that the pair will stay in the side channel 105.00–107.00 for at least another week. But in the future, most of them (60%) expect not a fall, but, on the contrary, that the dollar will strengthen, and the pair will rise to the zone of 108.50-109.00. Graphical analysis on D1 agrees with this forecast;
 
- Cryptocurrencies. Giving long-term forecasts is a blessing. And the more distant the forecast, the better. If it does not come true, it's okay: everyone forgot about it a long time ago. And if the forecast is correct, then you can remind about yourself.
For example, Tim Draper, the investor and head of Draper Associates, has predicted that Bitcoin would hit $250,000, possibly at the end of 2022, or maybe at the beginning of 2023. Well, only three years are left to wait.
If we talk about more near forecasts, famous cryptocurrency analyst Nicholas Merten is confident that Bitcoin will reach the $15,000 mark in a few weeks. It is possible that he is right, and a trend reversal is just around the corner, but so far there are no clear signs to buy, and the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index is still at the “Fear” mark.

1566055070_BTCUSD_19.08.2019.png


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

https://nordfx.com/

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Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for August 26 - 30, 2019

 
First, a review of last week’s events:
 
- EUR/USD. The Jackson Hole Annual Economic Symposium has traditionally served to give investors an understanding of where US monetary policy will move. That is why the markets were looking forward to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell speaking at this event.
On the other hand, back in the days when Alan Greenspan was Head of the Federal Reserve, another tradition appeared: let in as much fog as possible when answering questions, so as not to bind oneself with any specific promises.
This was what Powell did in Jackson Hole on Friday August 23. He did not give a clear signal for the Fed rate in the future, explaining that there were no precedents that could serve as the basis for a specific answer. But he said that the Fed was ready to provide more incentives in the event of a slowdown in economic growth.
Powell could not do without a hint that the trade wars waged by the US president are causing a lot of headache to the American Central Bank either.
Speaking of wars. Inside the EU, a counterattack plan for trade tariffs introduced by Trump has matured. A retaliatory strike scheme is described in detail in 173 pages, as the main goals for which the American hi-tech giants Apple, Amazon, Facebook, Google are chosen. A counterattack may also include the unilateral imposition of duties on goods from the United States. In parallel, it is proposed to invest about €100 billion into shares of European companies in order to increase their competitiveness compared to enterprises in the USA and China.
Returning to Powell, despite the vagueness of his wording, as well as the discord among other members of the Fed, many market participants still expect one or two (or even three) base rate cuts before the end of 2019. Moreover, the next cut may be announced on September 18.
Naturally, this market sentiment could not but affect the quotes, and on Friday evening the pair came close to the height of 1.1150;
 
- GBP/USD. In addition to the head of the Fed, the head of the Bank of England Mark Carney also spoke on Friday, August 23. However, an incomparably greater impression on the market was made by the words of German Chancellor Angela Merkel that were said the day before that the EU and Great Britain could reach an agreement on Brexit by October 31. Of course, this is just an intention, but it helped the pound a lot: thanks to these words, the British currency reached a three-week high, rising on Thursday August 22 to 1.2272. Then a pullback followed, but after the speech of the Fed head, the bulls prevailed once again, raising quotes to the level of 1.2285 by the end of the week;
 
- USD/JPY. There is no doubt that investors continue to be very worried about developments in the markets. It is quite natural against such a background, that the Japanese Yen turned out to be the best currency of the G10, not only in August, but throughout the last months of 2019, playing the role of a quiet haven among the trade and financial wars thundering around. At the same time, experts supported by graphical analysis on H4 had suggested that last week the pair would take a break and move in the side channel 105.00–107.00. That was it until Friday night. Moreover, the corridor was even narrower than expected: only 50 points bounded by horizons 106.20 and 106.70.
Powell’s performance on the evening of Friday, August 23, pushed the pair sharply down, however, it did not manage to reach the level of 105.00, completing the five-day period at 105.40;
   
- Cryptocurrencies. We wrote in our previous forecast that the Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index is at the “Fear” mark. And it is this fear that leads to a continuous decrease in volatility (remember, again, the triangular pennant on the chart of the previous week, whose edges converge in the $10,400-10,500 zone).
This forecast turned out to be absolutely correct, and during the whole seven-day period the BTC/USD pair did not go beyond the borders of $9,785-10,980, which indicates consolidation at the level of $10,385. TOP altcoins also fluctuated in the range of 11-13%: Litecoin (LTC/USD), Ripple (XRP/USD) and Ethereum (ETH/USD).
There is only one conclusion: the market is in a state of uncertainty, and players, both the bulls and the bears, fearing to take risks, froze in anticipation of any distinct signal.
 

As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:
 
- EUR/USD. The meeting of G7 leaders on August 24-24 is among the events of the end of summer. It cannot be ignored. However, it is unlikely that the results of these negotiations of the heads of the G7 countries will set any definite trends in the foreign exchange market. Most likely, the leaders will simply urge the heads of their central banks to respond more actively to external and internal economic threats. Investors are much more worried about the euro interest rate cut announced for September and the European Central Bank’s reanimation of the QE program, as well as when and in what amount the Fed will lower the interest rate.
After Jerome Powell's performance on the evening of August 23 and the sharp rise of the pair, it is natural that both the graphical analysis and most of the indicators on H4 look up. However, the picture is completely different on D1: 70% of the trend indicators turned red, and among the oscillators, either red or neutral gray prevail. At the same time, 10% of them are already signaling the pair is overbought. 
Strengthening of the dollar and the pair's return to the August lows of 1.1025-1.1050 are also expected by 65% of analysts. An alternative point of view is represented by the remaining 35% of experts, according to whom the pair may well reach zone 1.1200-1.1250. The next goal is 100 points higher;

1566650212_EURUSD_26.08.2019.png


 
- GBP/USD. No less active than Brexit, the world discusses the fact that during the meeting with French Prime Minister Emmanuel Macron, the new British Prime Minister Boris Johnson put his feet on the coffee table. Macron has been and remains one of the most consistent supporters of the EU’s tough stance on relations with Britain. And maybe his British colleague wanted to show in this way that France’s position, to put it mildly, doesn’t really bother him?
Of course, Merkel, Macron, and Johnson continue contacts during the G7 meeting, but even after them the probability of Britain leaving the EU without an agreement remains as high as before. That is why 70% of experts, in full agreement with graphical analysis on H4 and D1, expect a continuation of the downtrend and a decrease of the pair to the August 12 low - 1.2015. The closest resistance zone is 1.2280-1.2320, support is in the areas of 1.2180-1.2200 and 1.2075-1.2100.
30% of analysts continue to remain on the side of the bulls, believing that the good news regarding the Brexit agreement has not yet ended, and the pair will still be able to rise to the zone 1.2415-1.2520. More than 70% of indicators support this scenario. However, 15% of the oscillators on D1 are already signalizing the pair is overbought;
 
- USD/JPY. Experts (70%) expect the strengthening of the dollar against the yen as well. Despite the fact that the Japanese currency remains, along with the Swiss franc, the most popular safe haven currency, many major investors begin to fix short positions, converting their capitals to the gold.
The words of Bank of Japan representative Sayuri Shirai who said on Thursday August 22 that in order to counter the impending recession, the Bank allows a further reduction in the interest rate, which is already negative and amounts to minus 0.1%, played against the yen as well.
The immediate goal of the bulls is to return to the zone 106.20-106.70, then breakdown and consolidation above the level of 107.00. As for the bears (30%), they, with the support of 90% of the indicators on D1, will try to break the bottom in the zone of 105.00 and move the pair to the March 2018 low 104.60;      
 
- Cryptocurrencies. In general, the news background is quite favorable: Bank of America plans to patent a system for the safe storage of digital assets. Another US bank, Silvergate, has announced plans to launch a new product - loans issued against cryptocurrencies. - A study by Nobl Insurance showed that the cryptocurrency market has grown by 48% from 2018 to 2019 and will continue to expand over the next 12 months.
There is one more interesting piece of news. According to a statement from US economist Jim Rickards, Russia and China are working together to create their own cryptocurrency, which will be tied to gold. And that is precisely why, in his opinion, they have been so actively buying up this precious metal in recent years.
One can argue with Rickards. First, why should Russia and China issue a joint cryptocurrency? Each of these countries may well release their own cryptocurrency. And secondly, they replenish their gold reserves, most likely, not for the sake of issuing any digital coins, but in order to reduce their dependence on the US dollar.
As for the forecast, crypto enthusiasts, as usual, make every effort to push bitcoin up. This time, famous trader Alex Kruger made a prophetic prediction. According to him, the cost of bitcoin will soon begin to increase and reach 50 thousand dollars by the end of 2021. But at the same time, Kruger added that this will happen ... only if the coin now holds the positions above 10 thousand dollars. Well, what can one say to this?      
The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index has recently dropped to the Extreme Fear mark. 70% of analysts are looking south, but nevertheless they accurately mark the threshold of the fall with a zone of $9,000-9,500. It is possible that, pushing off from this support, Bitcoin will begin a new take-off to the $12,000 and $20,000 marks. But now it’s too early to talk about it and we need to wait for clear signals.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

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Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for September 02 - 06, 2019

 
First, a review of last week’s events:
 
- EUR/USD. As we expected, the negotiations of the G7 countries on August 24-26 did not affect the foreign exchange market in any way. But it was influenced by many other factors that, contrary to the wishes of Donald Trump, further strengthened the American dollar. We will mention only a few of them. First, it is the conciliatory rhetoric of the USA and China, which gave hope for a trade agreement. Further, there was an increase in personal consumption expenditures in the United States (4.7% instead of the forecast 4.3%) along with an increase in the yield of US treasury bonds and stock indices. If we add to this the slowdown in inflation in Germany and the statement of the future Head of the ECB Christine Lagarde on possible measures to support the Eurozone economy (QE), we get the strengthening of the dollar against the euro by almost 200 points.
Most experts expected the euro to weaken and the pair to decline, indicating August lows at 1.1025 as a target. However, the collapse of data on retail sales in Germany (a fall of 2.1% instead of the expected 1.3%) pushed the pair even lower, to around 1.0960, followed by a slight rebound, and the pair ended the week at 1.0990;
 
- GBP/USD. Supported by graphical analysis, 70% of analysts sided with the bears last week, expecting further weakening of the British currency. Which is what was happening as the bad news regarding Brexit was coming out. The Parliament prorogation by the new Prime Minister Boris Johnson not only caused a wave of discontent among the country's residents, but even affected the GfK Consumer Confidence Index, which fell in anticipation of a hard UK exit from the EU. According to Irish Foreign Minister Simon Coveney, “Great Britain has no credible proposals for Brexit.” As a result, the GBP/USD pair lost about 130 points over the week, dropping to the level of 1.2165;
 
- USD/JPY. Speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday evening, August 23, pushed the pair down sharply, and, as a result of a gap in its fall, it reached 104.45 on Monday August 26. However, after that, as the vast majority of analysts expected (70%), against the backdrop of Trump's statements about productive “telephone conversations” with China, the dollar began to regain its position, reaching a strong resistance zone 106.60-106.70 on Thursday. As for the end of the five-day period, the pair completed it at the level of 106.25;
 
- Cryptocurrencies. You cannot name the situation in this market happy, which, in fact, is fully consistent with our forecasts. Recall that two weeks ago, the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index dropped to Extreme Fear, and 70% of analysts gave a negative forecast for the BTC/USD pair, expecting it to fall to the $9,000-9,500 zone. This is exactly what happened: on Thursday, August 29, Bitcoin groped for a local bottom at $9.355.
If you keep in mind the news background, there is no visible reason for such a fall. And we can assume that in the absence of demand, sellers began to sharply reduce prices, hoping to attract new buyers.
Indeed, the situation with bitcoin is not joyful, but it is still difficult to call it dramatic, relying on support in the $9,100 zone, the pair have not updated the July lows. The situation with altcoins, whose popularity is inexorably declining, looks much more tragic. Litecoin (LTC/USD) returned to the level of March 2019, having dried out by 56% over the past 10 weeks. Losses of Ripple (XRP/USD) over the same period amounted to 50%, and it is trading now at the prices of two years ago. And the leading altcoin, Ethereum (ETH/USD) lost 54%. As for the capitalization of the cryptocurrency market as a whole, it decreased by about 32% over the indicated 10 weeks, from $367 billion to $250 billion.
 

As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:
 
- EUR/USD. Despite the peaceful statements by the US president and the Chinese leadership last week, Trump’s decision to raise tariffs from September 1 has not been canceled. There was only his promise to postpone this increase until December 15. So, the end of the trade war between these countries is not at all a fact. It is also doubtful whose mitigation policy, the ECB's or the Fed's, will be softer. Investors are hoping to get a part of the answer to this question from the speeches of Christine Lagarde on Tuesday September 3 and Jerome Powell on Friday September 6.
You should also pay attention to the value of the PMI Caixin index in China's manufacturing sector, which reflects the degree of business confidence in the economy of this country and which will be published on Monday 02 September. Data on business activity (ISM) in the US will be released on Tuesday and Wednesday, and on Friday, data on the American labor market will traditionally be released. According to forecasts, the number of new jobs outside the agricultural sector (NFP) may slightly decrease, from 164K to 159K, which is unlikely to have a strong impact on the dollar.
Based on the forecast data, most analysts (55%) expect EUR/USD to move sideways along the 1.1000 level at 1.0960-1.1050 next week. 25%, supported by 90% of oscillators and 100% of trend indicators, expect that the pair will be able to break through support 1.0960 on its way to parity and fall to the zone 1.0875-1.0925. The remaining 20% believe that the pair is for a correction and a rise to the level of 1.1250. This scenario is supported by 10% of oscillators on D1, giving signals about it being oversold. It should be noted that in the transition to the medium-term forecast, the number of supporters of the strengthening of the euro increases to 60%. At the same time, analysts are waiting for the pair to return to the levels of 1.1400-1.1500;         
 
- GBP/USD. At present, the three-month pound volatility against the US dollar is about 14%. It was so high for the last time at the moment when Theresa May tried to ratify the agreement with the EU in the British Parliament. Now its source is May's successor Boris Johnson and the expectation of a hard Brexit.
In the current situation, as before, most experts (60%) do not expect anything good for the pound. In full agreement with the graphical analysis on H4 are the readings of 90% of the indicators on H4 and D1, they suggest that the pair will test again the August 12, 2019 low. - 1.2015. Graphical analysis on D1 indicates a possible fall of the pair even further - to the low of October 2016, 1.1945. The nearest support is 1.1260;
The remaining 40% of analysts, along with 10% of the oscillators, believe that the pair is already oversold and expect it to return to the range 1.2420-1.2550. Their forecast is reinforced by the hope of a positive course of negotiations with the EU on Brexit;
 
- USD/JPY. Japan's weak economic statistics, as well as some lull in the trade war between China and the United States, have led to a dropping interest in the yen. That is why 70% of experts expect further growth of the pair to the level of 107.00-107.70. The next target, according to the graphical analysis on D1, is 108.75.
As for the opposite point of view, the argument of the bears is that the spread on the yield of 10-year bonds in Japan and the United States has decreased by about 135 points since November 2018, and the yen has strengthened against the dollar by 7% (from 114.5 to 106.00). And this strong trend may well continue. The immediate task is to overcome the support of 104.80. After which, in the medium term, the Japanese currency may even reach a significant level of 100.00;
 
- Cryptocurrencies. An unexpected statement was made by the Head of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, speaking at an economic conference in Jackson Hole (USA). He spoke extremely negatively both about the hegemony of the American currency and the prospect of the emergence of another reserve, such as the Chinese yuan. The UK chief banker said the dollar should be replaced with some form of cryptocurrency similar to Facebook’s recently introduced Libra. It is not known whether his wishes will ever come true, but so far, of the dollar, yuan, Libra, and his "native" pound that he has mentioned, the dollar he does not like is feeling the best.
As mentioned above, the BTC/USD pair came close to the July lows in the region of $9,100 last week. Last time, Bitcoin received support and fought off first at the level of $11,080, and then at $12,320. Whether something similar happens this time depends largely on major institutional investors. Bitcoin can also be supported by the launch of Bakkt, the crypto ecosystem created by Intercontinental Exchange (ICE). In the case of a confident breakdown of support $9,000-9,100, the pair is likely to fall to the zone of $7,450-8,200.
But the prospects for altcoins look gloomy in both cases. If Bitcoin is to fall, investor interest in the cryptocurrency market as a whole will also fall. And if Bitcoin begins to grow, then we can expect an active exchange of altcoins for the reference cryptocurrency.

1567264364_BTCUSD_06.09.2019.png


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

https://nordfx.com/

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Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for September 09 - 13, 2019

 
First, a review of last week’s events:
 
- EUR/USD. The range 1.1025-1.106 can be called the Pivot Point zone of the last month and a half. It was there that the pair returned to by the end of the week trading session, which indicates the uncertainty prevailing in the market.
It is known that the situation now is most affected by the Trump trade wars and the US Federal Reserve policy. The information that Washington and Beijing could resume negotiations in early October had a positive impact on the stock market: the S&P500 index went up and approached the mark of 3000 again, while the growth rate of 10-year US Treasury bonds yields turned out to be the highest over the past three years. At the same time, the dollar began to strengthen, reaching its maximum since May 2017 against the euro. As a result, on Tuesday 03 September, the EUR/USD pair once again updated the low, reaching the level of 1.0925.
However, upon further reflection it turned out that in general there are no special reasons for optimism. You should not count on serious concessions from China, the problems of the American economy have not gone away and, in the event of continued trade wars, the likelihood of a deep recession will only increase. And this inevitably should entail a fall in rates and a serious easing of the Fed's monetary policy.
Investors expected to get some guidance at the end of the week based on the labor market data. However, the performance of such an important indicator as Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) showed... nothing because its decline was very, very small (from 159K to 130K). As a result, the dollar lost only some 40 points against the European currency. After that, the market tried to find the answers in the speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell in the evening on Friday, September 6. But to no avail either. As a result, the point was set at 1.10 25;
 
- GBP/USD. The British currency rate was first determined by optimism No. 1 - regarding the continuation of the US-Chinese negotiations, and then by optimism No. 2 - regarding negotiations with the EU on Brexit. Recall that most experts have expected that the pair would test again the 12 August 2019 low, 1.2015. Graphical analysis on D1 indicates a possible fall of the pair even further, to the low of October 2016, 1.1945. And this forecast was implemented at the beginning of the week: thanks to optimism No. 1, the pair fell to 1.1958. And then it turned around and, thanks to optimism No. 2, the pound was able to win back almost 400 points from the dollar by the middle of Thursday. As for the final chord, it sounded at the height of 1.2290;
 
- USD/JPY. Unlike the British pound, with its growing volatility, the yen is behaving quite calmly, moving in the lateral corridor 105.50-107.00 from the beginning of August. And the rare emissions outside this range are caused mainly by the news about the US-Chinese trade war developments, which Trump publishes on his Twitter.
As experts expected, interest in the yen, as a safe haven currency, has recently subsided, and as a result, the dollar managed to rise on Thursday to 107.23. After which a small rebound followed, and the pair finished the five-day period at the level of 106.9 2;
 
- Cryptocurrencies. According to the online publication Block Journal, bitcoin has surpassed even the most successful investments in IT companies that have gone through public IPO in terms of profitability. In March 2010, the first cryptocurrency used to cost about $0.003. Thus, at the current exchange rate above $10,000, its growth amounted to about 350,000,000%. (For comparison, the same indicator of the online advertising giant The Trade Desk is “only” 1.317%).
Over the past seven days, the BTC/USD pair grew as well. A forecast chart published a week ago shows that 70% of analysts expected the pair to rise to the $11,000 zone, which happened in reality: by mid-Friday September 6, Bitcoin gained $1,250 and reached the level of $10,925.
Along with the forecast for the BTC/USD pair, we published another forecast, for altcoins. According to experts, their prospects, regardless of where Bitcoin goes, look rather gloomy. If Bitcoin is to fall, investor interest in the cryptocurrency market as a whole will also fall. And if Bitcoin begins to grow, then we can expect an active exchange of altcoins for the reference cryptocurrency. And last week, alas, showed the validity of such a scenario. With the growth of the BTC/USD pair by 13%, Ethereum (ETH/USD) grew by only 4%, Litecoin (LTC/USD) - by 3%, and the growth of Ripple (XRP/USD) was 0.
 

As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:
 
- EUR/USD. Despite the fact that both the oscillators and the trend indicators on D1 are colored red, the analysts' forecast is neutral gray. The reason for this is the expectation of an event that can greatly affect investor sentiment. On Thursday, September 12, the ECB is due to announce its decision on the base interest rate. Currently, it is at a zero level, and one part of experts expects a decrease of 0.25 percentage points to -0.75%, the other does not exclude the possibility of an even more drastic decrease, to -0.4%, and the third believes that instead of specific measures to stimulate the economy of the Eurozone, the ECB may get off with general vague phrases this time as well.
In connection with the above, on September 12, we can expect increased volatility of the pair, the development of a bearish trend and a decrease in the euro quotes by 100 or more points. The nearest support is 1.0925, the next one is 1.0830. Resistance is in zones 1.1125 and 1.1250.
Among other events of the week, though not so significant, one can note the release of statistics on the US consumer market, which will be released on Thursday September 12 and Friday the 13th;
 
- GBP/USD. On Tuesday, September 10, we are expecting the publication of data on the UK labor market. But much more important than any economic statistics is Brexit related news. The first portion will arrive from the Parliament of this country on Monday. On the whole, the tension regarding the deal with the EU has significantly decreased, hopes for a second referendum are in the air, and 80% of experts expect the pound to strengthen and the pair to rise to the zone of 1.2400-1.2525.
An alternative point of view is represented by only 20% of analysts, graphical analysis and 15% of the oscillators on D1, which give signals the pair is overbought. The main goal in the case of this scenario is to re-test the August-September lows in the 1.1960-1.2060 area; 
 
- USD/JPY. One can't say that nothing is happening in Japan. The Bank of Japan, trying to stop the decline in yield, is reducing the purchase of government bonds by 20 billion yen. On Monday, September 9, there will be statistics on the growth rate of Japanese GDP, which accelerated to 2.1% in the second quarter of 2019. But it seems that the yen quotes depend solely on the United States. Well, on China as well. And hopes for a trade agreement between these countries are pushing the Japanese currency down, and the pair up. As many as 90% of analysts (which is extremely rare), supported by 90% of oscillators and graphical analysis on D1, have sided with the bulls and voted for the pair to rise to the level of 107.25 and higher, to the resistances 107.80 and 108.50.
The fall of the pair to the level of 105.50 is expected, respectively, by 10% of experts and 10% of the oscillators, signaling the pair is overbought. Further support is located in zones 105.00 and 104. 45;

1567863473_USDJPY_09.09.2019.png


 
- Cryptocurrencies. Despite the stable growth throughout the past week, late on Friday, September 6, the main cryptocurrency unexpectedly went down, having fallen by almost $600 in literally 20 minutes. This confirms once again the thesis that with such super-volatility it is too early to talk about using bitcoin as a reliable asset for hedging risks in traditional financial markets - commodity, currency, and stock.
At the same time, Bitcoin adherents do not stop trying to warm up the crypto market with their appetizing forecasts. Thus, TV presenter and expert Max Kaiser said the other day that a stock market crisis, which is gaining momentum again, could lead the main cryptocurrency to a value of $25,000. However, there is a diametrically opposite point of view. For example, the analyst and trader John Bollinger, who created the well-known technical indicator Bollinger Bands, built into the MetaTrader terminals, has announced a possible complete reversal of the Bitcoin exchange rate. According to the expert, "the crypto winter, which was completed only in the second quarter this year, may return at a most unexpected moment."


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

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Financial Apocalypse 2019-2020

 
Waiting for a Financial End of the World
  
The world has frozen in anticipation of the global financial crisis. Some analysts predict its onset in the coming months, others give a delay until the end of 2020 - the beginning of 2021. But both draw quite apocalyptic pictures. The collapse in oil, copper and iron ore prices, falling stocks and currencies, layoffs and bankruptcies.

One of the most famous economists, Nouriel Roubini, believes that the crisis will begin very soon, at the end of 2019-2020. Recall that his previous forecast was completely accurate. And now, in an article in Project Syndicate, Roubini cites a number of signs of impending disaster. Among them, along with the trade wars that the US is waging with China, the EU and other countries, Roubini calls the increase in interest rates by the US Federal Reserve and the recession caused by the cessation of fiscal stimulus.

For these reasons, the growth rate of the American economy may slow down to 1%, as a result of which the country will face the problem of job shortages and unemployment. One should not forget that the foreign exchange reserves of most countries are denominated in US dollars, so the crisis in the US economy is very likely to cause a collapse around the world. 

But Is the Situation So Terrible Indeed?

First, it is reassuring that crises are temporary and cyclical. If we turn to the theory of medium-term economic cycles, we will see that since the beginning of the Great Depression of 1929 they occur approximately once every 7-12 years.

The first crisis in the 21st century was the bursting bubble of dotcoms (primarily American Internet companies) in 2000. Since 1994, the NASDAQ index had grown by more than 500%, and on March 10, 2000, in just one day, it fell more than one and a half times. Then the fall continued until 2003.

The next crisis, 2008, was caused by a bursting bubble of mortgage lending in the United States. And now we are gradually approaching a new boiling point, which is based on the overheating of the American economy, intensified by the global instability. Last summer, the S&P500 index, whose basket includes 500 US companies with the largest capitalization, reached its maximum, approaching the mark of 3.000. And in January 2010 it was exactly 3 times smaller: 1.000. That is, for almost 10 years we have seen continuous growth in the US economy. ACCA chief economist Michael Taylor estimates this is the longest growth period in 150 years. And if we focus on the theory of the cyclical nature of crises, it would be time for the next of them to begin.

And What about Washington?

“Naturally, both Fed leaders and President Donald Trump are aware of this,” says John Gordon, lead analyst at NordFX brokerage. - And here we must remember that the next year, 2020, is the year of the next presidential election in the United States. If Mr. Trump wants to lead the country for the second time (and, apparently, he wants to), he just cannot allow the collapse of the American economy, falling incomes and rising unemployment. Voters will never forgive him for this. Therefore, we can observe lately how Mr. Trump puts pressure on the leadership of the Federal Reserve System, insisting on softening financial policy. And it seems that the Federal Reserve may follow the president’s lead.

So, after the Fed raised its base interest rate from 2.25% to 2.5% in December last year, three more, if not four, increases were expected until mid-2020. However, the opposite happened: from July 31, 2019. the rate has again become 2.25%. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, speaking at the end of August at the annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole (USA), said that the Federal Reserve is ready to provide more incentives in case of a slowdown in economic growth.

Many other central banks, including the main regulator of Europe, the ECB, are also focused on easing policies. The leadership of China declares support for its economy as well. So there is hope that by joint efforts it will be possible, if not to prevent the crisis, then at least to push it back to 2021.

Yen, Bitcoin, Gold: An Equilateral Triangle

By accumulating resources, the largest US corporations are already redefining the priority of paying dividends to their shareholders, which makes us think again: what if the crisis breaks out in the coming months? What should one do? What assets to invest in, so as not to be left with nothing?

Currencies like the yen could be considered as a refuge. But they nevertheless strongly depend on the oil market and on the yield of US government bonds. For some time, the Japanese yen will be able to stay afloat. But, if the crisis is serious and long enough, its fate may also be unenviable.

What other options are there? Crypto enthusiasts, like Fundstrat analyst Tom Lee or Morgan Creek co-founder Anthony Pompliano, offer to invest in bitcoin, convincing investors that this virtual coin has already become a safe asset that can hedge currency risks. However, for many experts, this way of saving money raises fair doubts. “Answer the question on your own,” John Gordon of NordFX offers, “how reliable is Bitcoin if only from 08 to 15 August this digital currency lost more than 20% of its value, collapsing from $12,000 to $9,500? And this happened without any crises! "

With such frenzied volatility, Bitcoin is not a safe haven, but an ideal tool for high-risk speculation. Well and a refuge as well, but not from fluctuations in traditional financial markets, but from ... its younger colleagues in the digital market, altcoins, the interest in which is constantly falling. Of course, it is possible that at the time of the crisis, the price of the main cryptocurrency will rapidly go up. But it can fly down no less swiftly. Probabilities are 50 to 50. We are looking for a really reliable asset. And this, according to many experts, of course, is gold.

1568458941_Gold__S_P500_2000-2019.png

 

Over the past 20 years, this noble metal has risen in price from $275 per ounce in September 2000 to $1,550 in September 2019, bringing investors a profit of 460%.

According to analyst and producer of The Gold Forecast daily newsletter Harry Wagner, the last major bullish wave began at the end of 2015, after a correction of up to $1040, and suggests that gold can re-test the record highs of 2011, reaching in 2020 prices of $2070-2085 dollars per ounce.

Over the past year alone, since September 2018, the yellow metal has risen in price by 30%. According to the World Gold Council (WGC), gold demand in the first six months of 2019 reached a three-year high (2181 tons), mainly due to record purchases of the precious metal by Central banks, which are transferring their dollar reserves to more reliable assets, in their opinion.

“Of course, the numbers above look very attractive,” says the NordFX analyst. - And the actions of the Central Banks can be considered as an example. However, it must be borne in mind that if, in anticipation of a recession, the demand and, consequently, the price of this metal are rising, as the economy stabilizes, they may fall. Moreover, the fall may be quite serious. And the investor must have patience for the moment when the price moves up again to come: the process can take 5, 10 or more years. In this case, when we talk about hedging financial risks during global crises, gold can indeed be chosen as a preferred asset. As for the short- and medium-term speculations with it, this is a completely different issue, requiring a completely different approach, which must be discussed separately. However, in this case, gold can become a source of serious profit as well.”


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

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Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for September 23 - 27, 2019

 
First, a review of last week’s events:
  
- EUR/USD. Analysts have been talking about this for so long and it has happened: on Wednesday September 18, the US Federal Reserve lowered its key interest rate by 0.25% to 2.0%. But since they have been talking about this for a very long time, the market worked out this scenario a long time ago, and no "epoch-making" jumps in the rate have occurred. On the contrary, the volatility declined, and the pair switched to a sideways movement in the corridor 1.1000-1.1075, which is already well-known to traders.
We have already talked in our previous forecasts about this Pivot Point zone of the last two months, which was formed as a result of uncertainty prevailing in the market. Last week was a confirmation of this. So, on the one hand, the Fed’s press conference on Wednesday went without extenuating rhetoric, reinforcing the view that there will be no further rate cuts this year. But the very next day, the Banks of Switzerland and England abandoned the policy of easing at their meetings as well, maintaining their rates at the same level, and the Bank of Norway did raise the key rate. This only exacerbated the uncertainty by forcing the EUR/USD pair to move strictly east; 
 
- GBP/USD. The pound continues winning back losses from the expectation of an unregulated Brexit, adding 5% against the September 3 low of 1.1958. This week, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker announced his readiness to abandon the idea of the backstop on the Irish border if British Prime Minister Boris Johnson comes up with something new and viable. This pushed the pound further up, as a result of which the pair reached the corridor 1.2440-1.2580, in which it was already moving in July, and completed the five-day period at the level of 1.2470;
 
- USD/JPY.The pair updated its medium-term high in the middle of the last week, reaching the height of 108.47. This happened against the backdrop of the decision of the Bank of Japan to maintain the target yield of 10-year government bonds in the zero zone. A statement by the head of BOJ Haruhiko Kuroda, who stated that the issue of further rate cuts is still relevant, also helped weaken the yen.
However, as usual, Trump's words made a greater impression on investors. And the US president said this time that Washington had reached an “initial” trade agreement with Tokyo, according to which the United States promised not to raise tariffs and introduce quotas for Japanese cars, and Tokyo would reset the duties on American wine within seven years.
Cars against wine - such a deal is clearly in favor of Japan. In addition, due to the escalation of the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, the demand for protective assets has grown, among which, of course, is the yen. As a result, the pair went about 100 points in the opposite direction, ending the week session at 107.55;
    
- Cryptocurrencies. Last week pleased some and forced some to have cold sweat due to an unexpected sharp drop in bitcoin (BTC/USD) by 6%, and then due to its unexpected growth, for no apparent reason. This drop caused the widespread closure of long positions: on one BitMEX crypto exchange alone the closed positions were worth $150 million.
The most likely explanation for what happened is the game of major capital against small traders, disappointed by the lack of a quick rise in bitcoin. At the same time, large players, not wanting to cause a panic collapse, do not let the pair fall below acceptable levels, keeping it in a comfortable range with a Pivot Point of $10,000.
Interestingly, the main altcoins seem to have begun to live an independent life, only partially copying the movements of the reference cryptocurrency. So, Ethereum (ETH/USD) has risen in price by 35% over the past three weeks, Litecoin (LTC/USD) - by 30%, and Ripple managed to jump up by 27% in just 4 days (from September 14 to 18). And this despite the fact that the maximum fluctuations in bitcoin this month did not exceed 9%.
The most logical, in our opinion, explanation is the subtlety of the market for altcoins. Unlike bitcoin, it is much easier to manipulate the exchange rate here, even with significantly lower amounts, which cannot but attract speculators eager for quick enrichment.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. Unable to overcome the strong resistance level of 98.23, the USDX index is moving in a side channel. The pair EUR/USD is also moving east. Most likely, bearish factors such as quantitative easing (QE) in Europe and unregulated Brexit have already been played by the market. Objectively, the US economy is stronger than the European one. But the dollar-driven trade wars launched by President Trump are constantly hampering the dollar. And now there is also expectation of a full-fledged hot war in the Middle East over the drones’ attack on the oil facilities of Saudi Arabia, which Iran is accused of organizing. It is clear that the United States will surely intervene in this conflict.
All this leads to the closure of short positions on EUR/USD, and it is possible that the pair will not be able to update the September low at 1.0925. Half of the experts agree with this scenario, expecting it to grow to the height of 1.1100. The next target is 1.1160. 20% of analysts believe that the pair will nevertheless go down to around 1.0800. And 30%, supported by the oscillators on D1, expect the continuation of the side trend;

1569086960_EURUSD_23.09.2019.png


 
- GBP/USD. According to the calculations of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, unorderly Brexit will subtract 0.5 pp from the Eurozone GDP, and as much as 2 pp from the Misty Albion GDP(!). Such a fall, according to the OECD experts, will put the Eurozone on the brink of a collapse, and Britain will plunge into a deep recession. Responding to such forecasts, markets, like ordinary consumers, tried to get rid of the pound, as a result of which this currency approached the 2016 lows.
If you look at the graph, you can see that three years ago, having pushed away from zone 1.1945-1.1985, the pair went up and, having passed 2,400 points, reached the height of 1.4345 in January 2018. This “historical” experience is pushing some investors to buy the pound right now, hoping that the situation with Brexit will be somehow settled, and the Bank of England, fighting inflation, will begin to raise interest rates.
Among analysts, the number of supporters of this development today is 40%. 80% of the oscillators on D1 also agree with this prediction. If the bullish scenario is implemented, the pair will first rise to the zone 1.2575-1.2645, and then 100 points higher. The most ambitious forecasts indicate the pair growth to the level of 1.3100 by the end of the year. 
However, at the moment, the Brexit question remains open, and therefore most analysts (60%), supported by 70% of the oscillators on H4 and graphical analysis on D1, maintain a pessimistic mood, expecting that during the autumn, the pair will try again to approach its absolute low over the past 228 (!) years when on October 7, 2016 one pound was worth a little more than 1.19 dollars (in 1791 the pair GBP/USD was at around 4.55). The closest support areas are 1.2385-1.2400, 1.2280-1.2300, 1.2065-1.2200, 1.1955-1.2015;
 
- USD/JPY. For the reasons described above, most experts (65%) have supported the bears by voting for the fall of the dollar and the return of the pair to the area of 105.75-106.75.85% of indicators on H4 agree with this scenario. However, 15% of oscillators are already giving signals about the pair being oversold. 
35% of analysts consider the strengthening of the yen a temporary phenomenon and therefore predict the pair will rise to the height of 109.00.
As for the graphical analysis, at the first stage it draws the pair's growth to the horizon of 108.50 and then its fall to the level of 106.75. The following support levels are 105.75 and 105.00. The target of the bears is the low of 08/26/2019 at the level of 104.45;   
 
- Cryptocurrencies. Despite the constant assurances of the crypto market “guru” about the inevitable rise of Bitcoin to 50, 100 or 200 thousand dollars, its price still remains in the consolidation zone, moving along the $10,000 horizon. Moreover, the volatility of the BTC/USD pair is decreasing day by day. And it seems that this situation is quite suitable for large players building this low “fence” and earning on the volume of transactions, and not on the frantic jumps of quotes.
Of course, a breakthrough can occur at any time. However, it is difficult to say in the current situation when this will happen and in which direction the price will go. We only note that at the moment, 65% of the experts surveyed remain bullish optimistic, and 35% are expecting the pair to drop to around $8,000.


Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

https://nordfx.com/

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