Stan NordFX Posted October 27, 2021 Share Posted October 27, 2021 CryptoNews of the Week - Investors committed a record $1.47 billion to crypto funds during the week of October 16-22, and $8 billion since the beginning of the year. Such data is contained in the CoinShares report. The previous record of $670 million was set in February. Amid the digital gold's historical high above $67,000, the total amount of funds in cryptocurrency based financial products reached $79.2 billion during the week. Analysts attributed this dynamic to the successful launch in the US of two Bitcoin ETFs from ProShares and Valkyrie Investments. As a result, inflows to bitcoin-based funds totaled $1.45 billion, Solana, Cardano, Binance Coin totaled $8.1 million, $5.3 million and $1.8 million, respectively. At the same time, the outflow of funds from ethereum products has continued for the third week, totaling $1.4 million. - US Senator Rand Paul called fiat money "unreliable" and expressed optimism about the prospects for cryptocurrencies in the global financial system. “Public money is so unreliable! I began to wonder if cryptocurrency could serve as the world's money as more people lose confidence in the government,” he said. Reporters note that this kind of message made Rand Paul "a rock star in the eyes of young people" during the 2016 presidential campaign. It was notable for the fact that the Kentucky senator accepted bitcoin donates. - Several email providers were subjected to DDoS attacks, for the termination of which unknown persons demanded a ransom in bitcoins. Representatives of the Posteo email service confirmed the information. “But we will not pay the specified amount,” Posteo said in a statement. “Companies should not allow criminals to blackmail them under any circumstances. Otherwise, they will be even more attractive to them.” The RunBox service also announced the attack later. And they also clarified that "they have never paid the criminals" and do not plan to start." In addition to email providers, UK VoIP telephony provider Voipfone and game server provider Sparked were also targeted by DDoS attacks. - Payment giant Mastercard will soon announce support for cryptocurrencies in its network. CNBC reports. This includes bitcoin wallets, credit and debit cards, and loyalty programs where points can be converted into digital assets. According to Mastercard Executive Vice President of Digital Partnerships Sherry Haymond, the initiative will allow banks to compete with cryptocurrency exchanges. - Crypto trader and analyst known as Altcoin Sherpa is confident that bitcoin should bounce off the $54,000-58,000 zone where strong support is located, and renew its all-time high, exceeding $80,000, in November. Another well-known analyst, PlanB, also expects a parabolic rise in the price of bitcoin. As a reminder, PlanB is the creator of the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, which predicts the price of the flagship cryptocurrency, and which allowed it to accurately predict BTC prices in August and September. And if bitcoin continues to follow this pattern, “we'll be out $98,000 as early as November and $135,000 in December,” PlanB said. “So, it's going to be a really good Christmas this year.” At the same time, the analyst believes that the flagship cryptocurrency is unlikely to be able to avoid another major correction that historically follows each major bull cycle. - 150 people have been arrested worldwide as a result of a global special operation against illegal trading on the DarkMarket Internet platform. Law enforcement agencies from nine countries participated in Operation Dark HunTOR. It is one of the most large-scale investigations in Europol's history, assisted by U.S. authorities. Some $31 million in cash and bitcoins, 234 kilograms of drugs and 45 weapons were seized. Moreover, 67 people have been arrested in the US, 47 in Germany, 24 in the UK. Many of the detainees, Europol said, were targets of particular importance. Europol says the investigation was a follow-up to a raid by German police against the DarkMarket platform, which was operated by an Australian citizen. Moreover, as part of the same operation, several other illegal trading platforms have been shut down in Italy, four administrators have been arrested and €3.6 million in cryptocurrency seized. - The American company Walmart Inc., which operates the world's largest wholesale and retail chain, has launched a pilot program to sell bitcoins. Bloomberg reports that the pilot project includes 200 Coinstar ATMs at Walmart stores in the United States. Cryptocurrency will be available in more than 8,000 of these bitcoin ATMs in future. The commission will be 4% when buying BTC and 7% when cashing out. - Russian insurance company Renaissance Life and InDeFi SmartBank have started jointly developing smart contracts to help inherit digital assets. With the growth of the cryptocurrency market, the problem of inheriting such property has become quite acute. Since cryptocurrencies are decentralized, in the event of the death of the owner, the heirs simply cannot dispose of the property of the deceased without access to the cryptocurrency wallet. Special smart contracts will enable the client to transfer the disposal of their digital assets to the beneficiary in the event of their death. The service is expected to have at least 500,000 users in the coming year. - Popular cryptanalyst and trader Lark Davis believes that “the next six months are likely to be mega-crazy for bitcoin and cryptocurrencies! Many of you will get the chance to completely change your financial destiny,” he tweeted. Davis does not advise investors to get carried away with speculative altcoins and NFTs in the current situation, but to bet on time-tested coins. “Let the winners win, double and even triple your positions and cut the losers. Do it mercilessly, there is no point in keeping dubious assets,” writes Lark Davis. In his view, BTC could increase investor savings by 20 times over the next 10 years, but individual altcoins could generate comparable returns much sooner. “Altcoins are for making money, BTC is for storage,” the expert explains. - Former Facebook manager Frances Hogan, who made accusations against this corporation, said that investing in cryptocurrencies allows her not to worry about her financial situation. 'As for the foreseeable future, I'm fine. I bought cryptocurrencies at the right time,” she told The New York Times, noting that she moved to Puerto Rico not only to improve her own health, but also to join her “crypto friends”. Recall that Hogan turned over tens of thousands of internal Facebook documents to journalists and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Among other things, she accused the company of inciting hatred and ignoring teen safety issues. “I have come across a lot of social networks, but Facebook was doing much worse than the rest,” she said. - On Facebook, I have seen conflicts of interest between the public and the corporation over and over again. And Facebook has repeatedly chosen its interests, including to increase earnings." #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market https://nordfx.com/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stan NordFX Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for November 01-05, 2021 EUR/USD: After ECB Meeting, Ahead of Fed Meeting Last time the EUR/USD review was titled “In a state of uncertainty”, as confirmed by the previous week. Starting at 1.1643, the pair dipped to 1.1581, then rose to 1.1691, and ended the session with a new drop, this time to the 1.1560 level. The main event last week was the European Central Bank meeting. As expected, the interest rate remained unchanged at 0%. Therefore, the commentary of the ECB management on monetary policy was of much greater interest. After the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England outlined the timing of the start of curtailing their monetary stimulus (QE) programs, investors wanted to hear similar statements from the ECB. But… they didn’t hear them: the regulator’s press release practically repeated the previous one of September. According to Bloomberg insider information, there is currently a split among ECB Governing Council members. First and foremost, this concerns estimating the extent of the upcoming inflation. ECB President Christine Lagarde's assurances that the recent rise in inflation to 3.4% is temporary does not suit all. Even more so, they look doubtful against Germany's 28-year inflation peak (4.6%) and Spain's 37-year peak (5.5%). The statement of the bank's management that the analysis does not confirm the need to raise the interest rate in 2022 also looks dubious. All of the above has led investors to feel that the withdrawal of monetary stimulus in the Eurozone will not begin until late 2022 and early 2023. Against this backdrop, the European currency should have to weaken sharply. But if we look at the chart, we will see a sharp increase of the EUR/USD pair: the EUR/USD pair rose 110 points on October 28. Surprising but true! The main reason lies in the macro statistics from the US, which came out at the same time as the ECB chief's press conference began. According to preliminary estimates, US GDP in Q3 will be 2.0%, well below not only the previous 6.7% but also the 2.7% forecast. The growth rate of the US economy fell from 12.2% to 4.9%. The figures tempered investor optimism and caused the dollar to weaken, with the USD index (DXY) falling from 93.86 to 93.33, and the Dow Jones and S&P500 stock indices almost returning to their historic highs. Falling gas and coal prices also played against the dollar, reducing the likelihood of an energy collapse in Europe. At the end of the week, on Friday October 29, the dollar was able not only to win back losses, but also pushed the EUR/USD pair down to three-week lows. Investor positioning was key to this after the release of the US Fed's report on economic conditions, known as the Beige Book, ahead of the regulator's meeting next week. “With the Fed set to move to reduce asset purchases and flexibility, which is likely to be a key feature of future policy, the risk/return ratio becomes more positive for the dollar,” TD Securities analysts explained. The dollar was also supported by a monthly gain on risk assets, a rise in bond yields to 1.672% (the highest since May) and good macro statistics from the US: the rise in the underlying PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditure) remained at 3.6% in September, in line with August. However, the European statistics caused another anxiety attack at investors, showing an acceleration in inflation and a sharp slowdown in GDP growth. Despite the fluctuations of EUR/USD over the past few weeks, 100% of the trend indicators on D1 are looking south. But among oscillators, these fluctuations caused a certain amount of confusion: only 40% of them point south, 30% look north and 30% east. There is no unity among experts either. 30% vote for the growth of the pair, 55% for its fall, and 15% for lateral movement. Support levels are 1.1520, 1.1485, 1.1425 and 1.1250. Resistance levels are 1.1580, 1.1625, 1.1670, 1.1715, 1.1800, 1.1910. As for important events and the release of macroeconomic statistics, there will be a lot of both in the coming week. German retail sales volumes and the ISM business activity index in the US manufacturing sector will be released on Monday November 01. The value of ISM in the service sector, as well as the ADP report on the level of employment in the US, will become public on Wednesday November 03. We will have such a key event as the Fed meeting on the same day, including the interest rate decision, as well as comments from its management on the US Central bank monetary policy. Christine Lagarde, head of the European Central Bank, is scheduled to speak on Wednesday and Thursday. As usual, the first Friday of the month, November 05, will see data from the US labour market, including such an important indicator as the NFP, the number of jobs created outside the US agriculture sector. Eurozone retail sales statistics will be released the same day. GBP/USD: Ahead of Fed and Bank of England Meetings The Consumer Price Index (CPI), which reflects the retail price performance of goods and services that make up the consumer basket of United Kingdom residents, and is a key inflation indicator, was +0.3% in September (vs. +0.4% and +0.7% in August). On a year-on-year basis, the UK CPI grew by +3.1% (vs. +3.2% forecast and +3.2% in August). Although indicators showed inflation slowing in September, analysts expect it to accelerate sharply in October due to high energy prices, utility tariffs and a partial increase in VAT. The coming week is not only the week of the Fed meeting, but also of the Bank of England, which will take place on Thursday November 04. According to a number of experts, the slowdown in inflation in September is unlikely to force the UK regulator to stop raising its key interest rate in the coming months (now at 0.1%). The threat of stagflation, combining weak GDP growth and high inflation, is highly dangerous for the British economy, which is still being pressured by the effects of Brexit. According to the Bank of England experts, the annual inflation rate will accelerate to around 5% by April 2022 and fall to the 2% target as late as by the end of 2022. This is a very fast pace, and the head of the central bank, Andrew Bailey, has recently said that at such rates, it may be necessary to act and raise interest rates faster than originally planned. Many investors now believe that the interest rate on the pound could reach 0.45% by the end of 2021 and 0.95% by June 2022, which is supposed to lead to a stronger pound. However, in the current substandard situation, things are not so simple, and the curtailment of monetary stimulus could lead to a deterioration in the British economy, deepening crisis and a drop in living standards of the UK residents. Retail sales volumes (excluding fuel), as determined by the Office for National Statistics, have shown a year-on-year decline of -0.9% to -2.5% for three consecutive months, suggesting that people have started saving. The last week and a half shows that the bullish momentum on the GBP/USD pair that started on September 30 has dried up and, thanks to the same factors listed for EUR/USD, the pound ended the trading session at 1.3685 a month later. Intrigue as to how the market will react to plans by the US Fed and Bank of England to wind down QE remains for now. But it's safe to say that coming Wednesday and Thursday, when these regulators meet, promise to be very interesting, high volatility is guaranteed. At the same time, 40% of experts are betting on the bears winning, 30% along with the graphical analysis on D1 support the bulls, and the remaining 30% have taken a neutral position. As many as 50% of the oscillators are neutral grey. The readings of the rest oscillators are divided equally: 25% for the red and 25% for the green. As for trend indicators on D1, reds win with a clear advantage, they are 80%. Support levels are 1.3765, 1.3675, 1.3600, 1.3575, 1.3525 and 1.3400. The resistance levels and targets of the bulls are 1.3725, 3770, 1.3810, 1.3835, 1.3900 and 1.4000. USD/JPY: The Yen Has Its Own Path Charts from the past two and a half weeks show that the upward momentum has dried up for USD/JPY as well. Only if, in the case of GBP/USD, the dollar has been weakening against the pound since the end of September, on the contrary, it has been strengthening against the yen. The Japanese currency is a safe haven currency for investors. And its recent weakening fits logically into a stable inverse relationship between the yen rate and the growing risk appetite of the market. It should also be added that another trigger for the yen's weakening was the shift in Japan's trade balance towards imports, due to a spike in energy and metal prices. And, of course, one cannot ignore such an important factor influencing the USD/JPY quotes as the yield of US Treasury bonds. However, it is also directly related to the market's risk-aversion. USD/JPY upgraded its four-year high on October 20 to reach 114.70 high, the very point where it was in November 2017. After that, the enthusiasm of the bulls subsided, and the pair went down, ending last week at 113.95. At this stage, 70% of analysts expect the pair to first return to the 113.00 horizon, and then drop to the 111.00-112.00 zone by the end of November. The remaining 30% of experts adhere to the opposite point of view, expecting the next update of multi-year highs and the rise of the pair to the range 115.00-116.00. The resistance levels are 114.35, 114.70 and 115.50, the long-term target of the bulls is the December 2016 high of 118.65. The nearest support levels are 113.85, 113.40 and 113.25, then 112.00 and 111.65. As for the events of the coming week, the release of the report of the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy Committee meeting on Tuesday November 02 could be noted. However, it is likely the market will react to it fairly calmly. Especially since this event will take place just one day before the US Fed meeting, which will be the focus of all investors and speculators. CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Ethereum Renews Its High The historical record of $66,925 set by bitcoin on October 20 has not yet been broken. The imminent correction that followed taking that height brought forward a fierce bull and bear fight. The forces proved to be about equal. As a result, after swaying in the $57,590—63,645 range, the pair returned on Friday October 29 to roughly where it had been seven days earlier, to the $62,000 zone. The total crypto market capitalization is also unchanged at $2.6 trillion, but bitcoin's share has decreased somewhat: its dominance index has dropped from 45.94% to 44.15%. This was due to capital flows into altcoins, primarily ethereum, which rose from 18.72% to 19.61% over the week. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is still in the Greed zone at 70 points (75 weeks ago). Most analysts believe that the upward trend of the BTC/USD pair will continue. This is supported by statistics. Coin outflows from the exchanges have resumed, according to Glassnode. Bitcoin network hash rate has almost recovered after China's mining ban, which caused it to drop by 50%. At the same time, bitcoin supply is quite low: miners and investors are holding their reserves in the expectation of further price growth. The macroeconomic background is also favourable. The New York Stock Exchange continues to list bitcoin-related ETFs. True, there is information that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is likely to reject Valkyrie's application to launch a leveraged ETF. Other of the 40 filings currently under consideration by the SEC, apart from applications to launch ETFs on bitcoin futures, will not receive the green light either. But those that will be approved are quite enough to ensure a solid inflow of funds into this sector from investors saving their capital from inflation. The good news for BTC is that payments giant Mastercard will soon announce cryptocurrency support on its network. This includes bitcoin wallets, credit and debit cards, and loyalty programs where points can be converted into digital assets. The American company Walmart Inc., which operates the world's largest wholesale and retail chain, has also turned to the main cryptocurrency and launched a pilot program to sell bitcoins in its stores. Crypto trader and analyst known as Altcoin Sherpa is confident that bitcoin will not fall below the $54,000 zone where the strong support is located and, pushed back from it, will update its historic high in November, exceeding $80,000. Another prominent analyst, PlanB, also expects a parabolic increase in the price of bitcoin. As a reminder, PlanB is the creator of the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, which predicts the price of the flagship cryptocurrency, and which allowed it to accurately predict BTC prices in August and September. And if bitcoin continues to follow this model, it will reach $98,000 in November and $135,000 in December. “So, it's going to be a really good Christmas this year,” declared PlanB. At the same time, the expert believes that the flagship cryptocurrency is unlikely to be able to avoid another major correction that historically follows each major bull cycle. Another popular cryptanalyst and trader Lark Davis expects that “the next six months are likely to be mega-crazy for bitcoin and cryptocurrencies! Many of you will get the chance to completely change your financial destiny,” he tweeted. Davis does not advise investors to get carried away with speculative altcoins and NFTs in the current situation, but to bet on time-tested coins. “Let the winners win, double and even triple your positions and cut the losers. Do it mercilessly, there is no point in keeping dubious assets,” writes Lark Davis. In his view, BTC could increase investor savings by 20 times over the next 10 years, but individual altcoins could generate comparable returns much sooner. “Altcoins are for making money, BTC is for storage,” the expert explains. The leading altcoin seemed to have heard Lark Davis's words. While bitcoin was hovering around $60,000-61,000, ethereum renewed its all-time high, peaking at $4,447 on October 29. The previous record of $4,360 was set back in May. The ETH/USD pair is bursting up for the fifth week in a row, having added more than 65% since September 21. The reason for this growth is the coin-burning process that takes ETH tokens out of circulation. Another factor that pushed this altcoin up was the news of the successful start of the Ethereum 2.0 Altair update for the Beacon Chain, which brought the moment of the full launch of ETH 2.0 even closer. And another piece of news that will be of interest for those who think not only about their future, but also the future of their children and loved ones. Russian insurance company Renaissance Life and InDeFi SmartBank have started jointly developing smart contracts to help inherit digital assets. With the growth of the cryptocurrency market, the problem of inheriting such property has become quite acute. Since cryptocurrencies are decentralized, in the event of the death of the owner, the heirs simply cannot dispose of the property of the deceased without access to the cryptocurrency wallet. Smart contracts under development should solve this problem by enabling the client to transfer the disposal of digital assets to their designated heir in the event of their death. NordFX Analytical Group Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited. #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market https://nordfx.com/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stan NordFX Posted November 3, 2021 Share Posted November 3, 2021 October Results: Pound, Gold and Bitcoin Prioritized Again, NASDAQ 100 Is the Newcomer NordFX Brokerage company has summed up the performance of its clients' trade transactions in October 2021. The services of social trading, PAMM and CopyTrading, as well as the profit received by the company's IB-partners have also been assessed. October Results: Pound, Gold and Bitcoin Prioritized Again, NASDAQ 100 Is the Newcomer1 The undisputed leader at the end of the month was a trader from India, account No. 1556XXX, whose profit amounted to 169,533 USD. This solid result was achieved in the British Pound (GBP/USD) trades. The second step of the podium was taken by a representative of China, account No.1593XXX, with a result of 38,124 USD.Their profits were mainly derived from operations with gold(XAU/USD), bitcoin ( BTC/USD), as well as withNASDAQ 100 (USTEC.C). By the way, this is the first time since the beginning of the year when a person who makes trades in stock indices is included in the top three. The third place is taken by a trader from Vietnam, account No.1416XXX, who earned 37,116 USD in October on transactions on the XAU/USD and EUR/AUD pairs. The passive investment services: - in CopyTrading, as before, one can mark the KennyFXPRO signal, The Compass. It has shown an increase of 108% since November 2020. At first glance, this is not such an impressive result (although it is ten times higher than the interest on bank deposits). But combined with a moderate maximum drawdown of 22%, this signal becomes quite attractive for subscribers who have invested over 75,000 USD in it. TheSkyAngle signal can also be noted. It showed a profit of 76.64% in just the last two weeks of October with a maximum drawdown of 10.47%. This very good result was obtained mainly in transactions with the EUR/JPY and GBP/USD pairs. However, the signal has one serious drawback: it has a very short lifespan. Therefore, those wishing to subscribe to it should be extremely careful. Of course, there are long-livers in the CopyTrading service. For example, the signal MF989923, which is based on one of the Academy's MasterforeX-V trading systems. It has a lifespan of almost 2,500 days and has generated 510% profit (an average gain of 0.2% per day). However, it must be borne in mind that it has had serious drawdowns reaching 66% on several occasions in almost 7 years of the signal's life. - In the NordFX PAMM service, as well as in CopyTrading, you can mark the manager under the nickname KennyFXPRO. They have increased their capital by 53% on their account KennyFXPRO-The Multi 3000 EA since january 2021, with a drawdown of less than 16%. Investors who prefer moderate returns with moderate risk may also pay attention to TranquilityFX-The Genesis v3 account, which has gained 34.5% since April 03 with a drawdown of 16.7%. Among the IB partners, NordFX TOP-3 is as follows: - the largest commission, 8,841 USD, was credited in October to a partner from Vietnam, account No.1258ХXХ; - the next is a partner from India, account No.1504XXX, who earned 4,132 USD in a month; - and, finally, a partner from China, account No.1336ХХХ, who received 4,087 USD as a reward, closes the top three. *** And summing up the results of the month, it should be reminded that traders have received another great opportunity to earn money. NordFX has a Super Lottery for NordFX clients this year, where many cash prizes ranging from $500 to $20,000 will soon be drawn. It is very easy to take part in the lottery and get a chance to win one or even several of these prizes. All the details are available on the NordFX website. https://nordfx.com/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stan NordFX Posted November 3, 2021 Share Posted November 3, 2021 CryptoNews of the Week - Film director Quentin Tarantino will present a collection of seven NFTs (non-fungible token) based on the 1994 film Pulp Fiction. Each NFT contains an uncut movie scene and bonus content available only to the owner, including original handwritten pages of the script, Tarantino audio commentary and other details about the movie and the director. The auction will be held on the OpenSea trading platform and will be announced later. NFT is a non-fungible unique token. NFTs work on the blockchain, they first appeared back in 2017 in the Ethereum system. Secret NFT technology allows content creators to decide which collectibles are public and which are private to owners. - Burger King fast food chain will give away cryptocurrency prizes to visitors in the United States. The prize pool contains 20 BTC, 200 ETH and 2 million DOGE. it is required to spend more than $5 at Burger King to participate in the draw. - As bitcoin's math and logic do not allow copying or forgery of the first cryptocurrency, it surpasses the US dollar. This was stated by Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak in a recent interview with Yahoo Finance. He also noted the decentralized nature of digital gold, which allows it to maintain a level of predictability that is difficult to achieve with the US dollar. In his opinion, regulators can create new paper notes on their whim, and therefore it is difficult to predict inflation. “Look at the US dollar, the government can create new banknotes and borrow, it's like it will never be corrected. Bitcoin is mathematics, mathematical purity. Another bitcoin can never be created,” said Steve Wozniak. - The author of the book “Rich Dad Poor Dad”, writer and investor Robert Kiyosaki, like Steve Wozniak, has criticized the administration of President Joe Biden and has declared his distrust the US federal government. He believes that the authorities "rip off people", promote inflation and do not try to reduce it. “Inflation undermines the income of the poor. Inflation makes the rich richer. Biden and the feds are corrupt. Get ready for an economic collapse and a new depression. Be smart. Buy gold, silver and bitcoin,” said Kiyosaki, who has always been very enthusiastic about bitcoin. “I love bitcoin because I don’t trust the Fed, the Treasury or Wall Street,” this investor said. - The development team does not stop working on improving the Ethereum network, which inspires experts to make the most daring price predictions. So a reputable cryptanalyst known as CryptosRUs predicts that ETH will soon reach $10,000. Moreover, he is confident that now is almost the last opportunity to purchase ETH at a price below this mark. Among the reasons for the increase in the price of this altcoin, we can consider the recent activation of the London hard fork. In addition, thanks to the latest Ethereum Altair update, a new all-time high of almost $4,500 was set on October 29. However, after this update, network fees have almost doubled, which cannot be considered a factor accompanying the growth of ETH. - Cryptotrader hamster Mr. Goxx has its own collection of non-fungible tokens (NFT) called Goxx Capital. The tokens are made in the form of animated insert cards. With NFT sales, the “business partner” (aka owner) of the hamster plans to assemble a new “trade office” for his pet. According to him, the updated workspace will expand the functionality for the hamster's activities, as well as provide more interactive elements for the so-called "wheel of intentions" and "decision tunnels". Recall that the trading process boils down to the following: Mr. Goxx spins the wheel of intentions, on the basis of which one of 30 tokens is selected. Then the hamster must run through one of two decision-making tunnels: to buy or to sell a token. Mr.Goxx showed a profit of almost 50% in early September. Bitcoin, for example, was only 41% higher, the S&P 500 brought 6-7% to investors, and the Katie Wood ARK Innovation fund was 5%. - The high price of bitcoin indicates that the economy is facing real inflation, and the rise in prices is not a temporary phenomenon. This opinion was expressed by PayPal co-founder Peter Thiel, Bloomberg writes. “You know, bitcoin is already worth $60,000 and I'm not sure it should be bought aggressively. But, of course, this tells us that we are in a crisis moment," Thiel said and expressed regret once again that he had not invested more money in the first cryptocurrency. - It was 13 years ago, on October 31, 2008, that a person or a group of people known as Satoshi Nakamoto published the bitcoin white paper. The nine-page whitepaper described how the peer-to-peer payment system worked that would revolutionize the financial technology world. Nakamoto summarized the main characteristics of the first cryptocurrency in the foreword to this document: “A fully peer-to-peer version of electronic money would allow sending online payments directly from one side to the other, bypassing financial institutions.” The bitcoin network was launched in January 2009. Satoshi Nakamoto disappeared in April 2011, and the public was never able to find out who wrote these 9 pages, which marked the beginning of a multi-billion-dollar industry. - Chinese crypto analyst Willie Woo said in an interview with Bitcoin Fundamentals that the current “bullish” growth cycle for bitcoin is very different from previous similar periods. Woo noted that the latest wave of BTC accumulation began at the end of last year, when institutional investors began to enter the crypto market, aiming at the long-term accumulation of digital assets. This factor indicates that the current growth cycle will be longer, will continue for another six months to a year, and the price of bitcoin during this period will exceed $100,000, Woo predicts. - TV presenter, best-selling author and former hedge fund manager Jim Cramer said during the Mad Money program on CNBC that he supports investors buying cryptocurrencies if they are aware of the risks associated with this asset class. According to him, all the arguments in favour of cryptocurrencies are based on the “theory of a greater fool”, according to which there is always someone who is ready to buy an asset for a higher price, expecting to quickly resell it at a profit to someone else. However, when the "fools" are no longer found, the value of assets drops sharply. If people understand this, why not speculate in cryptocurrencies, Kramer said. “I bought bitcoin and ethereum not for protection from inflation,” the TV presenter admitted. - To be honest, it was a kind of gambling for me. I was just playing on the psychology of the crowd, and I have no idea why the rate of these crypto assets went up. Most likely, there are a lot of overly enthusiastic people who want to sell them for a higher price. I have no attachment to ethereum, but I keep it, because millions of even bigger fools can buy it,” Kramer said. Previously, he preferred to invest in gold and stocks, but now he believes that it is important to diversify the investment portfolio, 5% of which can be bitcoin or ethereum. - Investors should invest in hedge funds and real estate, as traditional assets, including stocks and bonds, will lag behind them in the next year and will show a return of only 5%, according to analysts at JPMorgan Chase. Cryptocurrencies can continue to grow, but are unlikely to be stable, so they cannot be recommended as a key asset, JPMorgan says. At the same time, the growth of cryptocurrencies is projected at 15% per annum, which is twice the expectations from hedge funds and exceeds the real estate sector with 12.5%. As for bitcoin, analysts estimate its fair value at $35,000. They came to such an assessment based on a comparison with gold, noting that the volatility of the cryptocurrency is about 4 times higher than that of the precious metal. If the BTC volatility drops by half, the $73,000 target will “look reasonable”. #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market https://nordfx.com/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stan NordFX Posted November 7, 2021 Share Posted November 7, 2021 Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for November 08 - 12, 2021 EUR/USD: Focus on the US Labor Market The central events last week were the meetings of two regulators, the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. Traders were also certainly interested in data from the US labor market, including such an important indicator as the NFP, the number of jobs created outside the US agricultural sector. As expected, the Fed announced the curtailment of $120 billion quantitative easing (QE) program starting this month. The purchases of treasuries will decrease by $10 billion to $70 billion in November, mortgage bonds - by $5 billion, to $35 billion. The total reduction in the volume of asset repurchase will remain at the same level of $15 billion In December. Commenting on the results of the last meeting, the head of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell said that the time for raising interest rates has not yet come, since the labor market has not fully recovered and, according to forecasts, this will happen by mid-2022. The Fed will be patient until then. At the same time, Powell noted that the pace of reduction of incentives can be adjusted at the beginning of next year both towards acceleration and towards deceleration, depending on economic conditions. It can be understood from this statement of the head of the FRS that the regulator keeps a path to retreat, and one should not expect an early cut in the ultra-soft monetary policy at the moment. This interpretation pushed the stock indices up again, and Dow Jones, S&P500 and Nasdaq updated their historical highs once again. (It is worth noting that for the first time, transactions with NASDAQ 100 (Ustec.c) helped one of the traders to become one of the most productive NordFX clients, earning a profit of $38.124 in October). So, the US Central Bank is ready to make and adjust its decisions depending on the market situation. As for the European Central Bank, unlike the Fed, it believes the markets are wrong. ECB President Christine Lagarde said Oo Wednesday November 03 that the bank's Governing Council has clearly formulated three conditions for raising interest rates, and that these conditions will not yet be met in 2022. Investors were not pleased with the macro statistics of the Eurozone either. Composite PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) declined for the third month in a row, and the volume of industrial orders in Germany in September rose by only 1.3%, despite the fact that in August it fell by 8.8%. The growth in the yield of government bonds of the Eurozone countries, caused by their active sale, which reminds the markets of the prospects of the debt crisis, looks alarming as well. All these factors put significant pressure on the common European currency and led to its fall, as a result of which the EUR/USD pair renewed its October lows. Focusing on the recovery of the labor market, the head of the FRS outlined the priorities for his organization. Against this background, the dynamics of NFP (Non-Farm Payroll) becomes even more important. This US non-farm employment report is traditionally released on the first Friday of the month, this time November 05. According to its data, the number of new jobs in October was 531K (with the forecast of 425K and the previous value of 312K). In addition, the unemployment rate fell to 4.6% from 4.8% in September. Stock indices soared even higher against this background. As for the EUR/USD pair, after a correction, it completed the weekly session at 1.1567. Naturally, most indicators on D1 face south. These are 100% among the trend indicators. The same could be said about oscillators. However, 10% of them have taken a neutral position, 10% are in the oversold zone and another 10% turned to the north at the very end of the week. As for the experts, 25% vote for the growth of the pair, the same number is for its fall, and 50% is for the sideways movement. Support levels are 1.1535, 1.1500, 1.1485, 1.1425 and 1.1250. Resistance levels are 1.1575, 1.1615, 1.1665, 1.1715, 1.1800, 1.1910. As for the upcoming release of macroeconomic statistics, data on the state of the consumer markets in Germany and the United States will be released on Wednesday, November 10, and the preliminary consumer confidence index of the University of Michigan will be announced on Friday, November 12. This index is an indicator of the US consumers’ confidence in economic growth and assesses their willingness to spend money. GBP/USD: Shock from the Bank of England The threat of stagflation, combining weak GDP growth and high inflation, is very dangerous for the British economy, which is still under pressure from the Brexit effects. According to forecasts of experts from the Bank of England, the annual inflation rate will accelerate to about 5% by April 2022 and will decrease to the target level of 2% as late as by the end of 2022. These are very high rates, and a few days before the meeting of the Bank of England, its head Andrew Bailey said that with such indicators, it may be necessary to act and raise interest rates more quickly than originally planned. As a result, the markets believed that the regulator would raise the key rate in November and... were deceived in their expectations. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Bank of England voted at its meeting on Thursday November 04 by seven votes to two to keep the interest rate at the previous level of 0.1%, and by six votes to three to keep the volume of asset purchases at £ 895 billion. Disappointed investors responded to the regulator with the collapse of the pound. The GBP/USD pair reached a local low, falling 270 points to 1.3425. The last chord of the week sounded at 1.3490. Andrew Bailey stated in response to criticism that he misled investors, that "we never promised a November rate hike" and that "it is not my job to manage the markets." Sylvana Tenreiro, an external member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee, who believes that the Central Bank should not react to short-term shock situations and the problem of supply of goods will become less acute next year, spoke soothingly. The opposite position was taken by Deputy Head of the Bank Dave Ramsden, who said that he voted for a rate increase, as the shortage of labor is becoming more and more noticeable. As some analysts note, there are currently growing expectations that London will decide to apply Article 16 of the EU Leaving Agreement. It is possible within the framework of this article for one of the parties to suspend part of the Brexit transaction if its further execution creates serious economic or other difficulties. That said, the EU's response could be more radical than the UK government expects. And this situation has and will continue to exert additional pressure on the pound. The preliminary data on the UK GDP for the Q3 will be released on Thursday, November 11. They may affect market sentiment along with macro statistics from the US. In the meantime, analysts' opinion is as follows: 55% of experts bet on bears to win, 35%, along with graphical analysis on D1, support bulls, and the remaining 10% have taken a neutral position. Among the oscillators on D1, 75% is colored red, 25% indicates that the pair is oversold. Trend indicators are 100% red. Support levels are 1.3470, 1.3420, 1.3380, 1.3200, the target of the bears is 1.3135. The resistance levels and targets of the bulls are 1.3510, 1.3570, 1.3610, 1.3735, 1.3835. USD/JPY: Sideways Trend Again The charts of the last three weeks showed that the upward momentum of the USD/JPY pair has dried up, and it has moved to its favorite activity: the sideways trend, limited by the range of 113.40-114.40. The yen rose on the back of the 10-year Treasury yield decline to 1.53% and continued to strengthen at the end of the working week, finishing at the lower boundary of this channel. The current situation is clearly confirmed by the spread of expert opinions and indicator readings. Among analysts, 50% expect the pair to return to the upper border of the 113.40-114.40 channel, 25% to move along the 113.00 Pivot Point, and 25% to fall to the 112.00 area. It should be noted that, when moving from weekly to monthly forecast, the number of supporters of the latter increases to 50%. There is a complete discordance among the oscillators on D1: 35% look north, 40% south, 15% give oversold signals and the remaining 10% turn neutral grey. There is a neutrality among the trend indicators: 50% side with the green ones, the other 50% side with the red ones. The resistance levels are 113.70, 114.40, 114.70 and 115.50, the long-term target of the bulls is the December 2016 high of 118.65. The nearest support level is 113.25, further targets are 112.00 and 111.65. CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Ethereum Renews Its High It was 13 years ago, on October 31, 2008, that a person or a group of people known as Satoshi Nakamoto published the bitcoin white paper. The nine-page technical document described how the peer-to-peer payment system worked that would revolutionize the financial technology world. The bitcoin network was launched in January 2009. Satoshi Nakamoto disappeared in April 2011, and the public was never able to find out who wrote these 9 pages, which marked the beginning of a multi-billion-dollar industry. More precisely, multi-trillion, since the total crypto market capitalization reached a new all-time high last week, exceeding $2.7 trillion. But the share of bitcoin has decreased again: its dominance index fell over the week from 44.15% to 42.84%. The historical record of $ 66,925, set by bitcoin on October 20, has not yet been broken. The bulls did try to update this result on Tuesday November 02, but having reached the $64,260 high, the BTC/USD pair reversed and rolled back to $60,000. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is still in the Greed zone at 73 points (70 weeks ago). While the main cryptocurrency is marking time, the attention of many investors has turned to altcoins. Ripple rose in price (XRP/USD), and the ETH/USD pair updated its all-time high once again, reaching $4.657 on Wednesday November 03. Among the top altcoins, Ethereum attracts with its long history and use in many projects. The main driver of its growth in recent months has been the burning of coins for transactions on the network and the fact that the rate of their burning outstrips the rate of their production. However, after the activation of the London hard fork and the latest Ethereum 2.0 Altair update, commissions on the network have almost doubled, but the developers promise to solve this problem. The past week is the sixth in a row since the beginning of the rise in the rate of Ethereum, which has added 75% since September 21. This token appears now to be targeting the $5,000 level. And this is not a limit. So a reputable cryptanalyst known as CryptosRUs predicts that ETH will soon reach $10,000. Moreover, he is confident that it is almost the last opportunity now to purchase this altcoin at a price below this mark. The forecast of Goldman Sachs specialists, who do not exclude that the ETH/USD pair may rise to $8,000 by the end of the year, is somewhere in the middle. Of course, it would be unfair to say that the market has completely forgotten about bitcoin. Many investors and experts still single out this cryptocurrency. Whales added 142,000 BTC to their wallets in the last week of October alone, according to Chainalysis. “Bitcoin is mathematics, mathematical purity” that allows it to maintain a level of predictability. Therefore, it outperforms the US dollar. This was stated by Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak in a recent interview with Yahoo Finance. In his opinion, regulators can create new paper notes on their whim, and therefore it is difficult to predict inflation of fiat money. The author of the book “Rich Dad Poor Dad”, writer and investor Robert Kiyosaki, like Steve Wozniak, has criticized the administration of President Joe Biden and has declared his distrust the US federal government. He believes that the authorities "rip off people", promote inflation and do not try to reduce it. Get ready for an economic collapse and a new depression. Be smart. Buy gold, silver and bitcoin,” Kiyosaki urged. “I love bitcoin because I don't trust the Fed, Treasury, and Wall Street.” Chinese crypto analyst Willie Woo said in an interview with Bitcoin Fundamentals that the current “bullish” growth cycle for bitcoin is very different from previous similar periods. Woo noted that the latest wave of BTC accumulation began at the end of last year, when institutional investors began to enter the crypto market, aiming at the long-term accumulation of digital assets. This factor, in his opinion, indicates that the current growth cycle will be longer, will last another six months or a year, and the price of bitcoin during this period will exceed $100,000. The forecast of analysts at JPMorgan Chase looks much more modest. Cryptocurrencies can continue to grow, but are unlikely to be stable, so they cannot be recommended as a key asset, JPMorgan says. As for bitcoin, its fair value is estimated by JPMorgan Chase analysts at $35,000. They came to such an assessment based on a comparison with gold, noting that the volatility of the cryptocurrency is about 4 times higher than that of the precious metal. However, if BTC's volatility is halved, the $73,000 target will "look reasonable." PayPal co-founder Peter Thiel doubts as well that now is the right time to buy BTC. “You know, bitcoin is already worth $60,000 and I'm not sure it should be bought aggressively. But, of course, this tells us that we are in a crisis moment,” Bloomberg quoted him as saying. At the same time, Thiel expressed regret once again that he had not invested more money in the first cryptocurrency when its price was significantly lower. NordFX Analytical Group Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited. #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market https://nordfx.com/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stan NordFX Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 CryptoNews of the Week - Bitcoin updated its all-time high, reaching $68,420 on Tuesday, November 9. Ethereum also set a record, rising to $4,830. The total capitalization of the crypto market at the maximum reached $2.947 trillion. Analysts attribute the current rally to the lack of supply amid increasing global interest in digital assets. - The value of any asset can collapse at any moment, so it is not only cryptocurrencies that are in the bubble. This opinion was expressed at the Boston conference by billionaire Stanley Druckenmiller. “Cryptocurrencies, meme stocks, art, wine, securities [...] This bubble is in everything, every asset on the planet,” he said. At the same time, Druckenmiller noted that the current situation in the cryptocurrency market is not like the dot-com bubble, which, according to him, had covered significantly fewer people than the digital asset industry today. Earlier, the famous American investor Bill Miller said that bitcoin is not a bubble, but the asset's volatility is a payment for its advantages. - Newly elected Mayor of New York Eric Adams called in a CNN commentary on local schools to prepare students for a “new way of thinking” related to blockchain technology and digital assets. The politician noted the low awareness of young voters on this subject: “When I talked about blockchain and bitcoin, young people stopped me and asked me, 'What is this?” Adams called digital assets being "a new way of paying for goods and services around the world" as an argument for including this topic in curricula. New York must remain a hub for innovation, he said. To this end, the newly elected mayor also plans to oblige local businesses to accept BTC and other cryptocurrencies as a payment method. In addition, he promised to receive his first three paychecks in bitcoin. - Rahul Rai, manager of the BlockTower Capital cryptocurrency fund, believes that the versatility of the ethereum blockchain will be the main factor that will attract both developers and investors. He is confident that if ethereum manages to restart the global financial system, its market will be much larger than that of bitcoin in the future. The crypto millionaire predicts that, ETH is likely to become the first cryptocurrency in terms of capitalization which could reach several trillion dollars, as early as in mid-2022. Analysts of the American investment bank JPMorgan made a similar statement in April. In their opinion, bitcoin is a consumer commodity. It can compete with precious metals and be seen as a store of value, but it will give way to ethereum in the long run, which is the pillar of the cryptocurrency economy. - Apple CEO Tim Cook said he owns cryptocurrencies, using them to diversify his investment portfolio. According to him, he was interested in digital assets "for a while" and researched this topic. At the same time, the CEO of Apple emphasized that the corporation he heads is not going to invest in these financial instruments and does not plan to launch related services or integrate them as an option for paying for its goods or services. Tim Cook noted that "there are other things that Apple is definitely looking at." It is still unknown what these words can mean. However, it was in May that the corporation opened a vacancy for a business development manager with five years of experience in the cryptocurrency industry, who is to lead the affiliate program in the segment of "alternative payments". - Swedish regulators believe that mining bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies using the Prоf-оf-Wоrk algorithm will prevent the country and the European Union from complying with the Paris Agreement on climate change. Officials noted that this process leads to the emission of up to 120 million tons of CO2 into the atmosphere per year. This is equivalent to the carbon footprint of 100 million round-trip flights between Sweden and Thailand. Regulators have called for a ban on the mining of digital assets in such an energy-intensive manner. At the same time, they believe that the use of renewable energy for mining is unreasonable, since "this energy is urgently needed for [...] large-scale production of batteries and the electrification of the transport sector." According to the University of Cambridge, the electricity used to mine 1 bitcoin is enough to drive 1.8 million kilometers in a medium-sized electric vehicle. - “Purely bullish” sentiment reigns among retail investors regarding bitcoin. This is reported by the analytical resource Santiment with reference to the off-chain BTC indicators. This rarely plays into the hands of cryptocurrencies, analysts say. The market, according to Santiment, has formed an “irrational trust” in bitcoin, which can lead to a price correction. Retail traders are excited about the potential of bitcoin. As for the "bitcoin whales", the situation here is not so straightforward. On the one hand, the total volume of coins on addresses with balances of 100-10,000 BTC has decreased by almost 60,000 BTC over the past 10 days. On the other hand, it has grown significantly on addresses with balances of more than 10,000 BTС. According to experts, this may indicate that large whales are buying coins from smaller ones. - Investment banking giant Morgan Stanley created a cryptocurrency analytics division in September. And now it has published a guide to the cryptocurrency market for its wealthiest clients. The bank's strategists conducted a detailed analysis of the various activities, sectors and trends that currently make up the highly speculative crypto industry. Given that the total market capitalization has exceeded $2.8 trillion, and investors are increasingly interested in DеFi, NFT and stablecoins, Morgan Stanley is convinced that this will accelerate the introduction of state regulation in this area. Morgan Stanley launched three bitcoin funds earlier this year. The minimum deposit required to participate in them is $5 million for institutional investors and $2 million for individuals. - The top of bitcoin's current bull cycle may be the price of $96,000. This conclusion was reached by analysts of the Kraken crypto exchange. According to their research, the current Q4 has dynamics most similar to the Q4 of 2017 (correlation 0.88), which showed a yield of +220%. In general, cryptocurrency exchange experts predict that BTC will reach heights around $300,000. The review published by Kraken also notes that November has historically been volatile, which brings the highest monthly returns. If bitcoin's current rally stops at strong resistance around $70,000, a correction can be expected. However, the drop will be no more than 20%. - Assessing the price of the main cryptocurrency, analyst Willie Woo came to the conclusion that the zone from $50,000 to $60,000 is more than reliable as a support. Bitcoin has secured a capitalization of $1 trillion, and it is difficult to imagine that it will fall below this zone, the expert commented, referring to data from the analytical company Glassnode. - According to a cryptocurrency analyst known as Altcoin Shеrpa, altcoins will not show the expected high results in the near future due to the bullish exchange rate movement of BTC. “Pay attention to the drop in altcoin/BTC pairs if bitcoin starts moving,” he writes. "I believe that the altcoin season has not yet arrived. They will have time to prove themselves, but after the bitcoin rally cools down." The analyst noted that bitcoin has formed a higher low of around $60,000, and while there is a possibility of a short-term decline, he expects the asset to grow significantly from current levels: “There is possibility of a short trip to $55,000. But I don't care about these minor movements. I continue to accumulate BTС, and when it starts moving, it will be fast. " - Crypto strategist Benjamin Cowen, on the other hand, believes that bitcoin will not please its supporters with explosive growth. “We started with about $28,000 to $29,000 and this was the start of 2021,¬” writes Cowen. “What have we seen so far? Not much, right? Will it be possible to show better results by the end of the year? Maybe, but I'm not sure that 2021 will be the year of a parabolic rally for bitcoin." While the distance between the low and high of the annual range may seem significant, Cowen noted that bitcoin holders are unlikely to be thrilled with such profits: “Look what happened to bitcoin in 2021: nothing special. The profitability was about 130%, and I am sure that most holders will not even get up from the couch for 130%." "We have returned to the top of the range, so there may be some euphoria, as it was from January to March 2021,” the expert continues to reason. - There are chances of a sharp leap, but the data shows that the cycle should last at least through 2022. Looking back to 2021, I think it was, for the most part, a year of long-term re-accumulation." - A well-known cryptanalyst under the nickname PlanB said that bitcoin could rise by 700% in early 2022. “If you look at the signals along the chain right now, I dare say that the price will reach the top in almost 6 months, this will be the end of Q1 of next year. - he thinks. - I believe that we will have a BTC rate of $100,000 at the end of the year, and then, perhaps, the currency will continue to grow up to model X (S2FX) and reach the level of $288,000, and possibly more. I would not be surprised if I saw the price rise to $400,000 - 500,000 in Q1 and Q2 of next year." In the long term, PlanB sees BTC experiencing a hyperbolic surge. “The old people have the money now. Real estate and gold are physical, not digital. Digital scarcity is a next generation phenomenon, so I'm sure it will happen. I see in my model (S2FX) that there is a linear relationship between scarcity and cost. Scarcity, in my opinion, is the most important factor causing this linear relationship and forcing people to invest more money." #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market https://nordfx.com/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stan NordFX Posted November 14, 2021 Share Posted November 14, 2021 Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for November 15 - 19, 2021 EUR/USD: Rising Inflation Equals to Rising USD All US macroeconomic statistics turned out to be worse than forecast. But despite this, the American currency continues to grow. The DXY dollar index, which measures it against a basket of six other major currencies, hit 95.26 on Friday, November 12, gaining about 2% over the past two weeks. It would seem that everything should be the other way around. So, what is the reason for this strange situation? It turned out to be the rapid growth of inflation. According to the Labor Department, the US CPI rose 6.2% in October, a record in more than 30 years. Inflation was higher only in November 1990. Compared to September, the price growth rate has accelerated by 0.8%, while core inflation (excluding energy and food prices) has accelerated to 4.6%, which is also the highest in three decades. And, apparently, this is not the limit. Inflation in the US is forecast to continue to rise in the coming months on the back of housing, utilities, energy and car prices. The CPI, which reflects the change in the cost of living in the country, has surpassed the 5% mark for the fifth month in a row. And this makes us doubt the assurances of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell that high inflation is temporary. However, not only investors are in doubt, but also the Fed itself. According to classical economic theory, the dollar should have weakened significantly in such a situation. However, the COVID-19 pandemic has turned everything upside down, forcing regulators to implement monetary stimulus (QE) programs in the spring of 2020, flooding markets with cheap money and lowering interest rates. Finally, the Fed reported that it is gradually beginning to curtail $120 billion of the asset purchase program starting this month. As for the rate hike, according to Jerome Powell, the time has not yet come for this, since the labor market has not fully recovered and, according to forecasts, this will happen by mid-2022. The Fed will be patient until then. However, many investors felt that with such a galloping inflation, the Fed's patience could quickly run out and the regulator would be forced to raise rates before the summer of 2022. An analysis of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) derivatives shows that there is a 64% chance that rates may rise even before June. Previously, the market was confident that the regulator would raise interest rates at least once next year. Now the likelihood that it will happen twice has increased from 63% to 80%, three times - from 29% to 49%. And some hotheads believe that the US Central Bank will take the first step in this direction this year. All these expectations made the dollar continue to grow. It was further supported by the soaring yields on US government bonds. Growing inflation reduces the purchasing power of the coupons paid on them, and there are few people willing to invest in securities, the yield on which covers inflation by only a third. As for the data on the US labor market published on November 9, the inflation-shocked market practically ignored them. But they also turned out to be much worse than forecasts. The number of repeated claims for unemployment benefits was expected to decrease by 50K, and it rose by 59K instead. The growing dollar pushed the EUR/USD pair to the lows of July 2020. It dropped to 1.1432 on Friday, November 12 and ended the week at 1.1446. The American currency has gained almost 900 points against the euro since the beginning of this year. And if the situation continues to develop as it is now, it will not stop there. Indicators on D1 confirm this forecast, pointing to the south. These are 100% among the trend indicators. The same can be said about oscillators, although a quarter of them are in the oversold zone. In anticipation of a correction, 40% of experts vote for the growth of the pair. 60% vote for its further fall. The nearest support level is 1.1435, then 1.1350 and 1.1250. Resistance levels are 1.1525, 1.1575, 1.1615, 1.1665, 1.1715. As for the upcoming release of macroeconomic statistics, there will be preliminary data on the Eurozone GDP for the Q3 on Tuesday, November 16. Data on retail sales in the United States will be released on the same day, they are very important for assessing the impact of inflation on the country's consumer market. The working week will end with a speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde on Friday, November 19. GBP/USD: Another Victory for the Dollar The dollar, pushed by inflation in the US, continues to put pressure on the British currency, as a result, the GBP/USD pair has been falling for the sixth month. It updated another low last week and settled in the zone of long-term support/resistance, where it has been periodically since 2016. The local minimum of the week was fixed at 1.3352 this time, and the last chord sounded at 1.3421. The macro statistics released on Thursday; November 11 did not help the pound either. And it seems that GDP for the Q3 turned out to be higher than the forecast, but the growth rates of the UK economy slowed down by more than 3.5 times, from 23.6% to 6.6%, and the industrial production growth rate fell from 4.0% to 2.9% (against the forecast of 3.4% ). Such a sharp slowdown, especially noticeable against the background of smoother similar indicators of the Eurozone and the United States, disappointed greatly, and even scared investors. The threats of recession and stagflation, combining weak GDP growth and high inflation, are very dangerous for the British economy, which is still under pressure from the Brexit effects. According to forecasts of experts from the Bank of England, the annual inflation rate will accelerate to about 5% by April 2022 and will decrease to the target level of 2% as late as by the end of 2022. This is a very high rate, and shortly before the meeting of the Bank of England on November 4, its head Andrew Bailey said that with such indicators, it may be necessary to raise interest rates earlier than planned. The market reaction was similar to the one that strengthened the dollar last week. The markets believed that the regulator would raise the key rate in November, and... they were deceived. The Bank of England did not raise the rate, and the GBP/USD pair went further down. UK unemployment data are due out on Tuesday November 16, followed by October CPI data the next day. Naturally, the state of the labor market and inflation will have an impact on market sentiment and the dynamics of the pound. In the meantime, analysts' opinions are almost equally divided: 35% of experts bet bears on the victory, 35% support the bulls, and the remaining 30% have taken a neutral position. As for the oscillators on D1, 85% is colored red, 15% indicates that the pair is oversold. Trend indicators are 100% red. Support levels are 1.3350, 1.3200, the target of the bears is 1.3135. The resistance levels and targets of the bulls are 1.3510, 1.3570, 1.3610, 1.3735, 1.3835. USD/JPY: Treasuries Strike Giving a forecast for the previous week, most analysts expected the USD/JPY pair to return to the upper border of the 113.40-114.40 channel. At first, it seemed that this forecast would not come true: the pair continued its corrective movement to the south, reaching the level of 112.70. However, it then turned and soared to 114.30, confirming the expectations of experts. The week finished at 113.90. The reason for this reversal was the “inflationary” strengthening of the dollar and, of course, a sharp increase in the yield of US Treasury bonds, with which the USD/JPY pair has a long-standing friendship. In other words, there is a direct correlation dependence. Given the soft monetary policy of the Bank of Japan and the expansion of control over the yield curve, it is highly likely that the weakening of the yen and the growth of the pair will continue. Of course, the decisions of the US Federal Reserve regarding interest rates will also affect the dynamics. A number of experts consider the rise of the USD/JPY pair to 114.00 as a return to the bullish trend that began back in January 2021. Although, the charts in the interval between March 10 and September 27 show that in the absence of strong drivers, the sideways movement can drag on for several months. Unlike the euro and the pound, the yen is a safe haven currency, and therefore is able to withstand storms in financial markets for a long time. 55% of analysts currently expect the pair to continue to rise, break through the upper boundary of the 114.40 channel, rise to a range of 115.00-116.00 and renew its multi-year highs. The opposite point of view is held by 35% of experts, and the remaining 10% expect the USD/JPY pair to stay in the 113.40-114.40 side channel for some time. As for oscillators on D1, 80% face north, 10% face south, and 10% turn gray neutral. Among the trend indicators, 100% are on the green side. The resistance levels are 114.40, 114.70 and 115.50, the long-term target of the bulls is the December 2016 high of 118.65. The nearest support level is 113.80, then 113.40, 112.70, 112.00 and 111.65. Monday, November 15, can be noted in the calendar for the coming week. Data on Japan's GDP for the Q3 will be published on this day, and, according to forecasts, this important indicator will decrease from + 0.5% to -0.2%. CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Where Will Bitcoin Fall and Rise? Bitcoin updated its all-time high, reaching $668,917 on Wednesday, November 10. Ethereum also set a record, climbing to $4,856. The total capitalization of the crypto market at the maximum reached $2.972 trillion. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index climbed from 73 to 84, entering the Extreme Greed zone, indicating that the main cryptocurrency was heavily overbought, and a correction was needed. Which then followed: setting a record, the BTC/USD pair turned around and rolled back into the $63,000-64,000 zone. With regard to bitcoin, the sentiment among retail investors is "extremely bullish". This is reported by the analytical resource Santiment with reference to the off-chain BTC indicators. But the situation is not so clear-cut among the "bitcoin whales". On the one hand, the total volume of coins on addresses with balances of 100-10,000 BTC has decreased by almost 60,000 BTC over the past 10 days. On the other hand, it has grown significantly on addresses with balances of more than 10,000 BTС. According to experts, this may indicate that large whales are buying coins from smaller ones, protecting bitcoin from a sharp drop. The correction that took place on November 10 was only about 8.5%. "Only", because with the typical volatility of bitcoin, this is not much. The current situation can be defined as "irrational confidence" in this coin on the part of investors, which can lead to a much stronger price correction. The specialists of the Kraken crypto exchange agree with this. The review they published notes that November has historically been volatile, resulting in the highest monthly returns. But if bitcoin's current rally stops at strong resistance around $70,000, a correction of up to 20% can be expected, meaning the BTC/USD pair could drop to $55,000. The cryptocurrency analyst Altsoin Sherpa calls the same figure. “There is the possibility of a short-term hike to $ 55,000,” he writes. “But I don’t care about these minor movements. I continue to accumulate BTC, and when it starts to move up, it will be rapid." Another well-known expert, Willie Woo, came to the conclusion that the zone from $50,000 to $60,000 is more than reliable as a support. Bitcoin has secured a capitalization of $1 trillion, and it is difficult to imagine that it will fall below this zone, he said, referring to data from the analytical company Glassnode. Bitcoin is a hedge against inflation, and the US has currently seen a record rise in consumer prices, which is a strong argument in favor of the flagship cryptocurrency. Despite the curtailment of the QE program and the expectation of an increase in interest rates, signs of a possible sharp devaluation of the dollar frighten investors, forcing them to invest in alternative assets in the stock and cryptocurrency markets. As a result, both BTC and stock indices update their historical highs over and over again. And forecasts for bitcoin will be in the green zone until the US Federal Reserve moves on to a broader tightening of its monetary policy. The top of bitcoin's current bull cycle may be the price of $96,000. This conclusion was reached by analysts of the Kraken crypto exchange. According to their research, the current Q4 has dynamics most similar to the Q4 of 2017 (correlation 0.88), which showed a yield of +220%. In general, cryptocurrency exchange experts predict that BTC will reach heights around $300,000. A respected cryptanalyst known as PlanB said that bitcoin could rise by 700% in early 2022. “If you look at the signals along the chain right now, I dare say that the price will reach the top in almost 6 months, this will be the end of Q1 of next year. - he thinks. - I believe that we will have a BTC rate of $100,000 at the end of the year, and then, perhaps, the currency will continue to grow up to model X (S2FX) and reach the level of $288,000, and possibly more. I would not be surprised if I saw the price rise to $400,000 - 500,000 in Q1 and Q2 of next year." Unlike many optimists, crypto strategists Benjamin Cowen, on the contrary, believes that bitcoin will not please its supporters with explosive growth. “We started with about $28,000 to $29,000 and this was the start of 2021,” writes Cowen. “What have we seen so far? Not much, right? Will it be able to show more significant results by the end of the year? Maybe, but I'm not sure that 2021 will be the year of a parabolic rally for bitcoin." While the distance between the low and high of the annual range may seem significant, Cowen noted that bitcoin holders are unlikely to be thrilled with such profits: “Look what happened to bitcoin in 2021: nothing special. The profitability was about 130%, and I am sure that most holders will not even get up from the couch for 130%." “We have returned to the top of the range, so there may be some euphoria, as it was from January to March 2021,” the expert continues to reason. - There are chances of a sharp leap, but the data shows that the cycle should last at least through 2022. Looking back to 2021, I think it was, for the most part, a year of long-term re-accumulation.” Ethereum, the main competitor of bitcoin, showed significantly higher profitability, it grew 6.7 times in 2021. And the year is not over yet. Rahul Rai, the manager of the cryptocurrency fund BlockTower Capital, believes that the versatility of the ethereum blockchain will be the main factor that will attract both developers and investors. He is confident that if ethereum manages to restart the global financial system, its market will be much larger than that of bitcoin in the future. The crypto millionaire predicts that it may be as early as mid-2022. ETH will be the first cryptocurrency in terms of capitalization, which could reach several trillion dollars. Analysts of the American investment bank JPMorgan made a similar statement in April. In their opinion, bitcoin is a consumer commodity. It can compete with precious metals and be seen as a store of value, but it will give way to ethereum in the long run, which is the pillar of the cryptocurrency economy. And at the end of the review a warning from the billionaire, founder of Duquesne Capital and one of the most successful managers on Wall Street, Stanley Druckenmiller. The value of any asset can collapse at any moment, he warns. According to the financier, "cryptocurrencies, meme stocks, art, wine, securities ... There is a bubble in everything, in every asset on the planet." And bubbles, as you know, often burst. “Every event in the world affects a certain amount of security,” explains Druckenmiller. "I try to imagine the world as it is today, and then I try to see if there are any seismic changes and what the world might look like in 18 months. And if this is true, then what securities will be worth very differently than now? I think that many investors live only in the present. It might work in the short term, but it's a disaster in the long term.” NordFX Analytical Group Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited. #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market https://nordfx.com/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stan NordFX Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 CryptoNews of the Week - US President Joe Biden signed a bill to raise $1.2 trillion to upgrade infrastructure without amendments in favor of representatives of the crypto industry. The document contains an extended definition of the concept of “broker”. Depending on the interpretation, miners, wallet developers, DeFi protocol liquidity providers and other digital market players may be required to report the activities of their users to the tax authorities. The crypto community is also concerned about another amendment to the infrastructure plan, which will oblige recipients of digital assets worth more than $10,000 to verify the sender's personal information. The document has been repeatedly criticized by representatives of the crypto industry, including the head of Tesla Elon Musk and the founder of the payment company Square Jack Dorsey. Some senators believe that participants in the crypto industry should be excluded from this law. According to others, only miners and sellers of hardware and software should be exempt from reporting to the tax authorities. - Investing Twitter's cash reserves in cryptocurrencies “does not make sense right now”. This was stated by the financial director of the company Ned Segal. According to him, the social network prefers to invest in less volatile instruments, for example, securities. Earlier, Ned Segal reported that Twitter is exploring the possibility of using bitcoin, but this will require the company to make additional decisions. As of the end of September, Twitter had $3.47 billion in cash and cash equivalents, as well as $3.94 billion in short-term investments. Meanwhile, the payment company Square, founded by Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey, continues to hold the main cryptocurrency on its balance sheet. “We have purchased bitcoin, and it seems to us that this not only demonstrates our interest but can also bring benefits from a financial point of view in the long term,” the Square said. - Bitcoin will “easily” reach a price of $500,000. This forecast was given by Anthony Scaramucci, founder of SkyBridge Capital investment company, referring to the limited issue of the first cryptocurrency and the potential number of rich investors in it. He noted that according to JPMorgan, there are at least 49 million dollar millionaires, but the supply of digital gold is limited to 21 million coins. “You don’t have enough bitcoins for every millionaire in our society to have at least one coin,” Scaramucci said. In his opinion, the current price level is still an early opportunity to enter the asset, and the price of the first cryptocurrency will reach the specified $500,000 mark by the end of 2024 or mid-2025. However, this requires that Ark Invest's forecast come true, according to which the number of bitcoin wallets should reach 1 billion by this time. - The US authorities will sell the confiscated cryptocurrency for $56 million to pay the victims of the BitConnect pyramid. The Justice Department notes that this is “the largest case of one-time recovery of losses from cryptocurrency fraud in the United States.” The US Securities and Exchange Commission said in a statement that “BitConnect Director Glenn Arcaro and his promoters, none of whom were registered with the Commission as a broker-dealer and were not affiliated with a registered broker-dealer, promoted a potentially high-yielding investment into a lending program for retail investors using recommendation-style videos they posted on YouTube. " Glenn Arcaro pleaded guilty to deceiving investors in the US and abroad, with the participation of whom the scheme managed to attract more than $2 billion. The verdict will be delivered on January 7, 2022, Arcaro faces up to 20 years in prison. - Apple will inevitably allow payments in bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies in the future. This opinion was expressed by Anthony Pompliano, co-founder of the investment company Morgan Creek Digital, commenting on Apple CEO Tim Cook's recognition of investments in digital assets. Pompliano believes that cryptocurrency will not be a separate industry, and all tech giants will sooner or later "infiltrate it into all existing assets and industries." In his opinion, technology companies will more actively enter the cryptocurrency industry in the next 10-20 years, inviting experts and leaders from it. “It has become normal to discuss cryptocurrencies in any society without risking being branded as 'crazy or lost.' Such conversations do not carry career risks anymore,” he added. - European electronics and home appliance retailer MediaMarkt has been hit by the Hive ransomware virus. According to Retail Detail, the incident affected many of the chain's stores, mostly in the Netherlands and Germany, and the retailer's 3,100 servers were affected. Initially, hackers demanded a ransom of $240 million in bitcoin. But after the company entered into negotiations, the amount was reduced to $50 million. For reference: MediaMarkt owns more than 1000 retail facilities in 13 countries. The company employs about 53,000 people and has an annual turnover of over €20 billion. - Chinese crypto journalist and analyst Willie Woo argues that bitcoin is not ready for impulse growth and renewal of all-time highs at the moment. Woo identified three factors that hinder the rise in price of the first cryptocurrency. The first factor is bitcoin's high speculative activity. Woo argues that while long-term investors continue to accumulate cryptocurrency, a large number of positions are being opened for short-term speculative purposes. Another factor that can hold bitcoin back is the launch of the first US exchange-traded fund (ETF) based on bitcoin futures. According to Woo, most institutional investors prefer to buy fund stocks and futures at the moment instead of buying the coin itself. Recall that the first US exchange-traded fund based on bitcoin futures began trading on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on October 19. Its assets exceeded $1 billion two days after the start of trading. Thus, the fund broke the record growth rate to $1 billion, which was held for 18 years. The third factor is the overly optimistic sentiment of investors who are confident in the further growth of bitcoin and the entire cryptocurrency market. “Whenever most investors are bullish, it is very difficult for the price to go up because there are a lot of speculative longs in the markets,” Woo explains. - An undisclosed crypto investor bought 2.2 thousand BTC coins in October 2013, spending about $330 thousand. And so, he withdrew cryptocurrency from his wallet, which had been inactive for eight years, on this November 10. The investments of the crypto investor have increased 455 times during this time, and the value of the asset has been almost $150 million. - it was a few months ago that there started to sound predictions that the price of bitcoin could soar to $100,000 by December. Bloomberg strategist Mike McGlone was an active supporter of this scenario. This analyst is known for having previously accurately predicted a repeat of the BTC run three years ago and a rise in quotes to $20,000 by the end of 2020. However, there are skeptics among the experts. “We won't get $100,000 or $150,000 in this Q4 or next Q1,” says popular crypto analyst Nicholas Merten. “I'm sorry, but I'll have to say that. I think that many experts are mistaken. Bitcoin is aiming for growth, but we will only see around $100,000 or $150,000 by the fall of next year.” - The authorities of Miami (USA) have decided to distribute $21 million in cryptocurrency to residents of the city. Thus, each of the 442,000 Miami residents will receive approximately 0.0007 BTC, which is about $47. Miami Mayor Francis Suarez explained that he decided to take such a step in order to familiarize citizens with the concept of bitcoin. According to him, creating digital wallets for every resident is a rather laborious technical task, but he hopes for the help of cryptocurrency exchanges. After that, a digital registration system will be created to reduce the likelihood of fraud. In addition, Francis Suarez stated in an interview with Bloomberg that one of the priorities for the city is the ability to pay civil servants their salaries in bitcoin. #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market https://nordfx.com/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stan NordFX Posted November 21, 2021 Share Posted November 21, 2021 Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for November 22 - 26, 2021 EUR/USD: Closer to Parity We made a short equation in the title of the previous review on the EUR/USD pair: “Inflation growth = USD growth”, and last week's events confirmed its fairness. Strong data on retail sales in the US, released on Tuesday, November 16, allowed the dollar to rally again, and the USD DXY index to return to the values of one and a half years ago and renew the highs of 2021. With the forecast of 1.4%, retail sales in October increased by 1.7% (the growth was twice less in September, 0.8%). The retail control group indicator went up as well, showing an increase in October by 1.6% (forecast 0.9%, growth a month earlier - 0.5%). Recall that this indicator represents the volume of retail trade in the entire industry and is used to calculate the chain price index for most goods. Investors were also pleased with the data on industrial production and the housing market in the United States. As a result, the EUR/USD pair dropped to 1.1263 on Wednesday, November 17. It is clear that in the current situation the market is most interested in how this or that macro statistics will affect the rate of curtailing monetary stimulus (QE) and the rise in interest rates by central banks. Thus, the data published last week gave investors another argument in favor of an earlier rate increase by the US Federal Reserve. According to John Williams, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the country's economy is recovering at a steady pace, the US has a huge growth in employment, and unemployment is falling very quickly. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard also added fuel to the fire when he said that the Fed should become more aggressive. If it accelerates the pace of QE reduction to $30 billion a month, this could provide an opportunity for raising rates in Q1 2022. Another "hawk", the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Rafael Bostic, believes that the Fed may start increasing rates in the middle of next year. And even such a famous “dove” as Chicago Fed President Charles Evans agreed that “raising rates in 2022 may be appropriate.” As for analysts, Bank of America believes that rising prices and wages will push the US central bank to raise the federal funds rate in the summer of 2022, and maybe even earlier. The most conservative aggregate forecast is given by Reuters experts. According to them, the rate will rise for the first time in the Q4 2022, followed by two more increases, in Q1 and Q2 2023, as a result of which it will reach 1.25-1.5% by the end of the year. Unlike the United States with its economic growth, things are not at all so rosy in the Eurozone with its energy crisis and the impending economic war with Great Britain. The preliminary data on GDP of the Eurozone for the Q3 published on Tuesday, November 16, showed the absence of even minimal growth. Well, at least there's no fall. ECB President Christine Lagarde said speaking to the European Parliament that the increase in interest rates in 2022 does not correspond to the plans of her bank, since the conditions for monetary restriction will not be implemented in the coming year. According to the regulator, tightening monetary policy in such a situation will do more harm than good. The euro weakened not only against the dollar, but also against other currencies after such statements by the head of the ECB. Great Britain helped the European currency a little. A record rise in inflation in this country pushed the GBP/USD pair up, and it pulled EUR/USD along with it. Two more factors also played into the hands of the euro. The first is the 66th update by the S&P 500 of its all-time high for this year. The second one is the possible resignation of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and the appointment of Lael Brainard, who is considered to support a softer monetary policy, in his place. A number of investors, influenced by the above factors, decided to take profit on short positions. But this only briefly helped the European currency. Having risen to 1.1373, the EUR/USD pair turned around and continued its southward movement, updated the local low at 1.1250 and closed the trading session at 1.1288. If we translate what is happening on both sides of the Atlantic into the language of the military, then things have not yet come to real military clashes: neither side has yet raised the interest rate. The matter is limited to the maneuvers and statements of the chiefs of the "general staffs", that is, of the Central Banks. Although, of course, divergences in economic growth, as well as in the monetary policy of the Fed and the ECB, are likely to push the EUR/USD pair further down. Moreover, there is still room for it to fall. Recall that the quotes were at the level of 1.0635 in March 2020, 1.0352 in December 2016, and the pair was even below the parity line at 0.8225 in October 2000. Indicators at D1 confirm the bearish forecast, pointing south. These are 100% among the trend indicators. The same can be said about oscillators, although 15% of them are in the oversold zone. 35% of experts vote for the correction and growth of the pair in the short term, 50% vote for its further fall, and 15% expect a sideways movement. Resistance levels are located in the zones and at levels 1.1315, 1.1360, 1.1435-1.1465 and 1525. The nearest support level is 1.1250, then 1.1175 and 1.1075-1.1100, then 100 points lower. As for the upcoming release of macroeconomic statistics, preliminary data on business activity (Markit) in Germany and the Eurozone will be released on Tuesday, November 23. And the volumes of orders for capital and durable goods in the United States, as well as preliminary data on US GDP for the third quarter, will become known the next day. And finally, the minutes of the meeting of the US Federal Reserve Committee (FOMC) will be published on Thursday, November 25, from which investors will try to understand how strong the "hawkish" attitude among the leadership of this regulator is. GBP/USD: Awaiting the Rate Hike on the Pound As mentioned above, inflation in Britain hit 4.2%: the highest level since 2011 (it was 3.1% in September). The jump came amid rising energy prices and worsening supply problems. However, the core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes volatile food and energy prices, showed an increase of 3.4% (2.9% a month earlier). According to many economists, consumer prices will continue to rise further in the coming months. The released statistics increased the likelihood that the Bank of England will decide to raise the interest rate on the pound this December. This contributed to the rebound of the GBP/USD pair from November 12 low of 1.3352, to which it fell after the US recorded its highest growth in 30 years inflationary pressure. In general, the macroeconomic statistics of the United Kingdom looked quite optimistic last week, supporting the pound. It became known last Tuesday that the number of jobs in the country increased by 160K in October. This figure is especially important against the background of the fact that the state program for subsidizing wages, which was in force during the COVID-19 pandemic, was completely phased out in September. Many experts expected employers to start cutting jobs after the end of support. However, this did not happen and the labor market, on the contrary, continues to recover. The UK unemployment rate fell to 4.3% in the Q3. Recall that the Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, speaking of curbing inflation on November 4, did not rule out the possibility of raising interest rates more quickly than planned. And now the published indicators allowed the bulls to seize the initiative and raise the pair to a height of 1.3513 on Thursday, November 18. However, this was followed by a rebound, and it completed the five-day period at 1.3444. If the key rate for the pound increases in December, we can expect the GBP/USD pair to grow to the 1.3800-1.3900 zone. However, while this has not happened, most analysts (75%) expect the pair to fall further. Only 25% bet on a quick victory for the bulls. As for the oscillators on D1, 80% are red, 10% are green and 10% are neutral gray. Trend indicators are still 100% red. Support levels are 1.3400, 1.3350, 1.3200, the target of the bears is 1.3135. The resistance levels and targets of the bulls are 1.3475, 1.3515, 1.3570, 1.3610, 1.3735, 1.3835. As for the macro statistics for the coming week, it is worth noting the publication of the UK Services Business Activity Index (PMI) on Tuesday November 23. This indicator, published by the Chartered Institute of Procurement and Supply in conjunction with Markit Economics, is an indicator of the economic situation in the field of sales and employment in this sector. However, it is not as important as the country's manufacturing PMI USD/JPY: Still East While the US Federal Reserve cuts monetary stimulus, the ECB has frozen QE at the previous level, the Japanese government announced an unprecedented program of economic stimulus for the total 55.7 trillion yen ($487 billion) on Friday November 19. Tokyo hopes that this measure will increase the country's GDP by 5.6%. As stated, the Bank of Japan will pursue an appropriate monetary policy, closely monitoring market movements and the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the economy. “We hope that the Bank of Japan is clearly aware of the urgency of the measures and continues to coordinate closely with the government to achieve a proper mix of fiscal and monetary policy,” the Cabinet of Ministers of Japan said in a statement. In what way did the USD/JPY pair react to this event? well, actually... in no way. A safe harbor should remain calm no matter what. In general, the dynamics of the pair fully followed the forecast given the previous week. Most analysts expected the pair to rise, break through the upper border of the 113.40-114.40 channel and try to update multi-year highs. This is exactly what happened: the pair was noted at a height of 114.96 on November 17. However, then the strength of the bulls dried up, and the pair returned to the mid-term trading range, putting the last chord in its central part, at the level of 114.00. Given the ultra-soft monetary policy of the Bank of Japan and the expansion of control over the yield curve, it is highly likely that the weakening of the yen and the growth of the pair will continue. And that USD/JPY will not only reach the 115.00-116.00 range, but will also consolidate there, updating the 2017 highs. Of course, the decisions of the US Federal Reserve regarding interest rates as well as the yield of American treasuries will also affect the dynamics. As a result of the backward movement that the pair demonstrated last week, the oscillators on D1 are completely confused: 20% of them point north, 40% - south and 40% - east. There is no unity among trend indicators either: 60% look up, 40% - on the contrary, down. The picture is similar among analysts. 40% of them expect the growth of the pair, the same amount expect its fall, and the remaining 20% just shrug their shoulders. The resistance levels are 114.40, 114.70, 115.00 and 115.50, the long-term target of the bulls is the December 2016 high of 118.65. The nearest support level is 113.40, then 112.70, 112.00 and 111.65. CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Where Will Bitcoin Fall and Rise? Bitcoin updated its all-time high, reaching $68,917 on Wednesday, November 10. Ethereum also set a record, rising to $4,856. The total capitalization of the crypto market at the maximum reached $2.972 trillion. At the same time, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index rose to 84, being in the Extreme Greed zone, which indicated that the main cryptocurrency was strongly overbought and the need for a correction that was not long in coming. We cited the opinion of specialists from the Kraken crypto exchange in the previous review, according to which if the current growth of bitcoin stops at strong resistance around $70,000, a correction of up to 20% can be expected. That is, the BTC/USD pair may fall to $55,000. The cryptocurrency analyst Altcoin Sherpa called the same figure. Another well-known journalist and expert, Willy Woo, cited a wider range from $50,000 to $60,000 as a reliable support. In addition, Willie Woo argues that bitcoin is not ready for impulse growth and renewal of all-time highs at the moment. Woo identified three factors that hinder the rise in price of the main cryptocurrency. The first factor is bitcoin's high speculative activity. Woo argues that while long-term investors continue to accumulate cryptocurrency, a large number of positions are being opened for short-term speculative purposes. Another factor that can hold bitcoin back is the launch of the first US exchange-traded fund (ETF) based on bitcoin futures. According to Woo, most institutional investors prefer to buy fund stocks and futures at the moment instead of buying the coin itself. Recall that the first US exchange-traded fund based on bitcoin futures began trading on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on October 19. Its assets exceeded $1 billion two days after the start of trading. Thus, the fund broke the record growth rate to $1 billion, which was held for 18 years. The third factor is the overly optimistic sentiment of investors who are confident in the further growth of bitcoin and the entire cryptocurrency market. “Whenever most investors are bullish, it is very difficult for the price to go up because there are a lot of speculative longs in the markets,” Woo explains. Analyst Nicholas Merten is also skeptical about the near future of the flagship cryptocurrency. “We won't get $100,000 or $150,000 in this Q4 or next Q1,” he says. “I'm sorry, but I'll have to say that. I think that many experts are mistaken. Bitcoin is aiming for growth, but we will only see around $100,000 or $150,000 by the fall of next year.” At the time of writing the review, the BTC/USD pair is around $58,000, the local minimum was recorded on November 19 at $55,638. The total capitalization of the crypto market fell to $2.590 trillion. At the same time, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell by as much as 50 points, to 34, being in the zone of Fear. The news background is neutral. More precisely, it is ambiguous. On the one hand, for example, the Bitcoin Taproot network was updated on November 14 - the first major change in functionality since 2017. The main cryptocurrency needs to become more efficient, scalable and confidential. On the other hand, US President Joe Biden signed a bill to upgrade the infrastructure. Depending on the interpretation of this document, it may turn out that miners, wallet developers, liquidity providers in DeFi-protocols and other players in the digital market may be required to report to the tax office. The crypto community is also concerned about another amendment to the infrastructure plan, which will oblige recipients of digital assets worth more than $10,000 to verify the sender's personal information. No confidentiality! A very good reason is needed for bitcoin to rise sharply again. And if it does not appear, the BTC/USD pair has many chances to stay stuck for a long time in the zone $50,000 to $60,000, sagging from the maximum by 15-30%. However, the current drawdown does not prevent many crypto enthusiasts from maintaining remarkable optimism. Thus, Anthony Scaramucci, the founder of SkyBridge Capital investment company, is confident that bitcoin will “easily” reach the price of $500,000. He gave such a forecast, referring to the limited emission of the first cryptocurrency and the potential number of wealthy investors. He noted that according to JPMorgan, there are at least 49 million dollar millionaires, but the supply of digital gold is limited to 21 million coins. “You don’t have enough bitcoins for every millionaire in our society to have at least one coin,” Scaramucci said. In his opinion, the current price level is still an early opportunity to enter the asset, and the price of the first cryptocurrency will reach the specified $500,000 mark by the end of 2024 or mid-2025. However, this requires that Ark Invest's forecast come true, according to which the number of bitcoin wallets should reach 1 billion by this time. *** Clients of the brokerage company NordFX continue to accumulate lottery tickets: the New Year's draw of this Super Lottery will take place soon. And the more tickets, the more chances you have to win one or more prizes ranging from $500 to $20,000. This money will be useful to you, won't it? It is very easy to participate. All the details are available on the NordFX website. NordFX Analytical Group Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited. #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market https://nordfx.com/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stan NordFX Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 CryptoNews of the Week - Latvian law enforcement officers detained a suspect in creating a fraudulent cryptocurrency project, who disappeared with €500,000 stolen from deceived customers. According to the police, the detainee is the creator of the Hodlife project and the token of the same name and operated from Spain. He promoted the fraudulent platform on social media, promising quick profits, and he made an exit scam last June and disappeared with investors' money. According to preliminary estimates, more than a thousand investors have suffered. The stolen funds were laundered through mixing services, but Interpol employees were able to establish a link between different wallets and tracked the attacker. - US Senator Cynthia Lummis criticized Hillary Clinton for concerns about cryptocurrencies. Earlier, during the Bloomberg New Economy Forum, former First Lady, Secretary of State in the Obama administration and participant of the presidential race in 2016, Mrs. Clinton said that cryptocurrencies can undermine the dollar's status as a reserve currency. Digital assets can also destabilize entire countries, she added. “Great leaders are not afraid of the future. America could be a winner by adopting bitcoin as a hard currency that can be used to stabilize the dollar and reverse the tailspin that began in 1971,” Lammis wrote in response. She did not elaborate on how the first cryptocurrency should stabilize the dollar, but she did mention 1971. US President Richard Nixon completely abolished the gold standard then, transferring control of the money supply to the Fed. It is believed that this has made the economy more prone to inflation, allowing the printing of unsecured money. - According to research by The Advisor Coach, Dogecoin is the most searched cryptocurrency in 23 US states. Bitcoin and ethereum are on the second (10 states) and third (eight) lines. The fourth place is a clone of Dogecoin, Shiba Inu. Analysts explained Dogecoin's leadership by Elon Musk's attention to this asset. Tesla CEO invited users to vote for the option of accepting payments in Dogecoin back in May. Prior to this, the billionaire reported that SpaceX will launch the Doge-1 satellite to the moon in 2022. According to him, the mission is fully paid for with this meme cryptocurrency. Dogecoin was worth $0.001353 on October 1, 2020. The price rose to $0.6311 per coin In May 2021, or 465 times. However, by the time of this writing on November 24, 2021, it has lost more than 65% in price, falling to $0.2172. - Edward Snowden, a former NSA and CIA officer who asked for asylum in Russia, said that he treats dog-like tokens like Dogecoin or Shiba Inu badly. According to him, many take meme coins seriously and may suffer losses because of this. Against the background of the growing popularity of such assets, fraudsters have become more active. The team behind Shiba Inu warned users about the spread of fake project groups on social networks. - Bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto should receive the Nobel Prize in Economics for inventing the first cryptocurrency. This initiative was made by Daniel Leon, co-founder and COO of the Celsius Network crypto platform. "This guy [Nakamoto] has brought hundreds of thousands of people more financial benefits than the bulk of economists in academia," Daniel Leon argued for his position. He explained that before the advent of cryptocurrencies, people were forced to trust intermediaries, which are centralized institutions like banks and governments. With digital assets, this is no longer necessary. According to Daniel Leon, trusting the "code" rather than the middleman is easier and safer. “When you lend money to your bank, it pays you 0.1%, but when you borrow, you pay 7.73%. Where is justice? To make matters worse, if a credit institution fails, the government bails it out. In the event of a failure of the government itself, it simply prints money: 30% of all dollars in circulation have been issued in the last 18 months,” COO Celsius Network said indignantly. - Over a quarter of super-wealthy families around the world have already invested in cryptocurrencies. This is evidenced by the results of a survey of the British consulting company Campden Wealth, conducted among representatives of 385 family offices. The average capital managed by such offices is estimated at $1.6 billion. 31% of wealthy households in North America and 28% in Europe invest in cryptocurrencies, while this share is lower in the Asia-Pacific region, 19%. At the same time, the share of cryptocurrencies in the assets of billionaire families as a whole is still only 1%. Most of the respondents said that they plan to keep the volume of such investments at the current level next year, 28% are going to increase them, and only 4% are going to reduce them. - A new report from analyst firm Glassnode showed that the market is not showing massive profit-taking. Analysts pointed out that the total supply of short-term bitcoin holders is at a multi-year low below 3 million BTC, which in turn means that the amount held by long-term holders is at a multi-year high. At the same time, they are only building up their positions. The total number of wallets with a non-zero BTC balance in the second half of November also reached an all-time high of 38.76 million. The data obtained by Glassnode indicates that there are no signs of serious surrender, and that the flagship cryptocurrency may still have a rather long upward rally. - CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju also expressed a similar opinion to Glassnode. Despite the fact that bitcoin has been getting cheaper since the middle of last week, holders are in no rush to sell it. In parallel, there is a steady trend towards the withdrawal of cryptocurrency for autonomous storage. According to CryptoQuant, trading floors currently have the lowest amount of bitcoins since mid-2018. Moreover, investors are withdrawing not only BTC, but also ethereum, which reduces the supply of the asset and eases the pressure on the market. In the long term, according to Ki Young Ju, this trend will drive the value of leading digital currencies upward. - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has once again criticized the decision of the El Salvadorian authorities to recognize bitcoin as the official currency. “Given the high volatility of the bitcoin price,” the Fund said in a statement, “its use as legal tender carries risks for consumers and also threatens financial integrity and stability. Its use also gives rise to contingent fiscal liabilities,” the review says. The IMF came to this opinion following the visit of its staff to El Salvador. Experts who visited the country recommended that the government of El Salvador "narrow the scope of the bitcoin law and strengthen the regulation and supervision of the new payment system." - A well-known trader and analyst known as Credible argues that the current correction of bitcoin is a necessity to continue the bullish trend and rise above $70,000. According to the expert, the first cryptocurrency is in the phase of a healthy correction at the moment. The bitcoin price may fall to $52,000-53,000 in the near future, where the “bottom” of the current correction is located, Credible predicts. According to him, the $69,000 mark that bitcoin reached on November 10 cannot be the top of the current bull market, as historically each subsequent cycle of growth has lasted longer than the previous one. - Chief commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence Mike McGlone believes that, despite the temporary correction in prices, BTC will grow in 2022. He said on his Twitter account that the asset is likely to face resistance at $100,000 and the $50,000 mark will act as a support level. “The level of adoption of this young technology/asset is increasing, and the supply volume is less and less, which indicates signs of maturation,” the expert explained his forecast. - The CEO of the American investment management company ARK Invest Katie Wood confirmed her previous forecast for the price of bitcoin at $500,000, saying that this will be facilitated by the growth of institutional investments. Such a price will be achieved if institutional investors allocate 5% of their portfolios for bitcoin. - Mike Novogratz, CEO of investment firm Galaxy Digital Holdings, said last week that gold "was just crushed by bitcoin." “I think gold was probably the best asset to own,” he added. "But bitcoin is simply the best version of storing value..." Anthony Scaramucci, founder of another investment firm, Skybridge Capital, also expects bitcoin to "ultimately outshine gold." The price of this cryptocurrency, in his opinion, will easily reach $500,000, so one should invest in BTC right now. “I think bitcoin is likely to be ten times better than gold... I would not be surprised if bitcoin grows exponentially and gold grows in line," said Anthony Scaramucci. Paul Tudor Jones, a legendary trader with a personal fortune of $4.6 billion and fund manager of the Tudor Investment Corporation, has also admitted recently that he prefers bitcoin over gold. In his opinion, BTC is an excellent alternative as a hedge against inflation in the current economic situation. “It is obvious that there is room for cryptocurrency,” the billionaire said. “At the moment, it is winning the race against gold... And I would prefer it.” #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market https://nordfx.com/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stan NordFX Posted November 28, 2021 Share Posted November 28, 2021 Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for November 29 - December 03, 2021 EUR/USD: Panic Named B.1.1.159 The past week can be divided into two parts: before and after Thanksgiving. Let us remind you that the day Thursday, November 25 was a day off in the United States. And since the lion's share of capital is controlled by banks and funds located in this country, the lull comes in financial markets around the world on this day. So, what happened before November 25? And there was everything, as predicted by most experts. Divergence in the economic growth of the US and the EU, as well as in the monetary policy of the FRS and the ECB, the energy crisis in Europe continued to push the EUR/USD pair further down. The reanimation of the Brexit theme contributed to its fall. As a result, the pair reached a local bottom at 1.1185 on the evening of November 24. This was followed by holiday Thursday and… the markets woke up on Friday. And they not just woke up but woke up panicked by the news that a new dangerous strain of coronavirus has been discovered in South Africa that may be insensitive to existing vaccines. WHO convened an urgent meeting, noting that almost 100 cases of infection with the new strain B.1.1.159, which has a "large number of mutations", have already been recorded. Against the backdrop of this alarming news, investors' expectations for an early increase in the Fed's interest rate went down, and pessimism, on the contrary, rose. According to experts from CME Group, if the likelihood that the rate will remain unchanged until June 2022 was 18% on Thursday, it rose to 34% on Friday. Compared to November 24, the yield on 10-year Treasuries dipped by almost 10%. Stock indices and cryptocurrency quotes flew down. The markets began to run away from risks. Investor panic and falling US Treasury yields helped EUR/USD bulls to raise the pair to 1.1321, where it ended the working week. In fact, it is difficult to predict to which of the American or European economies the new wave of coronavirus may do more harm. According to ING Group analysts, it is now important to understand whether the new COVID strain has already reached Europe (which is geographically closer to Africa). This could further worsen sentiment in the Eurozone and put pressure on the euro. The difference in the monetary policy of the Fed and the ECB will undoubtedly continue to influence the behavior of the EUR/USD pair. Several representatives of the European regulator have recently made it clear that the central bank intends to complete the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP) in March 2022. The pair barely reacted to these comments. But the meeting of the ECB Governing Council on December 2, dedicated to monetary policy, may become the main event of the coming week. Markets expect not just words and hints, but specific decisions on the timing of the completion of the emergency PEPP program and adjusting the volumes of the main Asset Purchase Program (APP), QE analogue. Moreover, the volume of APP can be increased to compensate for the folding of PEPP. It is also possible that the regulator will raise inflation forecasts for 2021-2023. It is logical to assume that the Fed's hawkish policy and the dovish policy of the ECB will continue to push the EUR/USD pair south in the coming months. Goldman Sachs experts predict that the key USD rate will rise in June, September and December 2022, and the Fed will increase the volume of QE reduction to $30 billion per month starting from January. The rate may be raised twice more in 2023 and will reach 1.5%. The ECB, on the other hand, plans for 2023 to take only the first step. Until then, it will be easy to watch record price growth in the Eurozone countries. However, it is possible that the December 02 meeting of the Governing Council of the European regulator will bring investors some hawkish surprises. Therefore, the most cautious of them will begin to close short positions in advance, fixing profits, which in the short term will lead to further growth in EUR/USD. 35% of experts who vote for the growth of this pair in the coming week agree with this development. The opposite position is taken by 55% of analysts who believe that the ECB will not make any significant changes to its monetary policy now. The remaining 10% vote for the sideways trend. Indicators on D1 have a predominantly red color. There are 75% of them both among oscillators and among trend indicators. As for the oscillators, 15% give signals that the pair is oversold, and another 10% have taken a neutral-gray position. As for trend indicators, 25% changed from red to green by the end of the week. Resistance levels are located in the zones and at levels 1.1300-1.1315, 1.1360, 1.1435-1.1465 and 1525. The nearest support level is 1.1300, then 1.1230, 1.1185-1.1200, then 1.1075-1.1100. As for the events of the coming week, apart from the ECB meeting, the publication of numerous statistics on the consumer markets of Germany and the Eurozone should be noted. These data will be released on November 29 and 30, December 01 and 03. As for the US, we are expecting a speech by the head of the Fed, Jerome Powell, who held this post for a second term, on Tuesday, November 30, the ADP report on the level of employment in the US private sector and the ISM Manufacturing PMI will be published on Wednesday December 01. And investors traditionally wait for data from the American labor market on the first Friday of the month, including such an important indicator as the NFP: the number of new jobs created outside the US agricultural sector. GBP/USD: Pound Rescue Is in the Rate Growth The GBP/USD pair also followed the forecast of the overwhelming majority (75%) of experts until Friday, November 26, falling to 1.3275, the lowest point for the last 5 months. The last chord of the week sounded at 1.3350. Concerns about Brexit remain the main factor of pressure on the pound. Lord David Frost, the UK minister responsible for implementing the EU deal, said that while there was a desire to find a negotiated solution to the Northern Ireland problem, the gap between the positions of the UK and the EU was very large. The British Government is therefore prepared to use article 16. As a reminder, the Northern Ireland Protocol was signed two years ago as part of the treaty on the withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union. According to London's statements, it was precisely because of the shortcomings in this document that the country faced supply disruptions and a shortage of goods. For this reason, the British government offered Brussels a new version of the protocol, which European officials saw with hostility. As for article 16 of the current document, it allows either party to unilaterally take "protective measures" in the event that the protocol leads to "serious economic, social or environmental problems" that persist for a long time. Fears about a new strain of COVID, which caused investors to flee from risks, are also unlikely to help the British currency. Yes, the GBP/USD pair grew slightly on Friday due to the general weakening of the dollar (the USD DXY index fell to 96.037). But the pound has long been considered a riskier asset than the dollar. And expectations about the increase in interest rates were revised by the market not only in relation to the American, but also the British currency. Threats of recession and stagflation, combining weak GDP growth and high inflation, are very dangerous for the British economy. According to forecasts of experts from the Bank of England, the annual inflation rate will accelerate to about 5% by April 2022 and will decrease to the target level of 2% as late as by the end of 2022. These are very high rates, and shortly before the meeting of the Bank of England on November 4, its head Andrew Bailey said that with such indicators, it may be necessary to raise interest rates more quickly than planned. The markets believed that the regulator would raise the key rate in November, and... they were deceived. The Bank of England did not raise the rate, and the GBP/USD pair went further down. And Andrew Bailey told disappointed investors that "we never promised a November rate hike" and that "it's not my job to rule the markets." Now, in addition to all other worries, there are also concerns about a new wave of the pandemic and the impact of the B.1.1.159 strain on the country's economy. And we are talking about raising the Bank of England rate not in November, but in December. And this is not at all great: while the probability of a rate hike by 15 basis points was estimated at 75% on Wednesday, November 24, then it fell to 55% two days later. If, following the results of the December meeting, the British regulator still raises the rate, this will push the GBP/USD pair up. 70% of analysts hope so. As for the next week, their opinions are divided equally: 50% expect growth from the pair, 50% expect a fall. But the indicators on D1 clearly support the bears. 100% of trend indicators point to the south. The same could be said about the oscillators, but 15% of them have reached the oversold zone. Support levels are 1.3300, 1.3275, 1.3200, the target of the bears is 1.3135. The resistance levels and targets of the bulls are 1.3410, 1.3475, 1.3515, 1.3570, 1.3610, 1.3735, 1.3835. The head of the Bank of England will make a speech on Wednesday, December 01. Investors hope that Andrew Bailey will clarify the situation with what the future monetary policy of this regulator will be. USD/JPY: Who Benefits from COVID: Yen Takes Revenge What is bad for risky assets, is good for the yen. This immutable rule worked this time too. The Japanese currency gained 230 pips in just one day, dropping the USD/JPY pair to 113.043. True, it once again renewed its multi-year highs two days earlier, on November 24, reaching a height of 15.514. The pair bulls were hoping this stellar rally would continue. But this didn't happen. We can only guess how many Stop-loss orders were knocked out after such a rapid reversal. “This is a typical scenario: the flight of investors to the quality of the yen and the Swiss franc due to a new strain of the virus,” analysts from Societe Generale explained the incident. The USD/JPY pair completed the trading session at 113.112. And now there is an intrigue: whether it will return to the trading range 113.40-114.40 or continue falling. There are slightly more supporters of further movement to the south among experts, 55%. The remaining 45% expect at least a correction in this direction if not returning to a full-fledged upward trend. The indicators do not have even the slightest hint of unity either. As for the oscillators, 25% are colored green, 40% are red, 20% give signals that the pair is oversold, and 15% have taken a neutral position. The trend indicators have the same discord: 50% of them point to the north, the same amount - to the south. Resistance levels are 113.40, 114.00, 114.40, 114.70, 115.00 and 115.50, the long-term target of the bulls is the December 2016 high of 118.65. The nearest support level is 113.00, then 112.70, 112.00 and 111.65. As for macroeconomic statistics, retail sales data are due Monday November 29, followed by labor market and industrial production data in Japan the next day. CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Nobel Prize for Satoshi Nakamoto We cited the opinion of specialists from the Kraken crypto exchange two weeks ago, according to which the BTC/USD pair could fall to $55,000. The cryptocurrency analyst Altsoin Sherpa called the same figure, $55,000. Another well-known journalist and expert, Willy Woo, cited a wider range from $50,000 to $60,000 as a reliable support. In addition, according to Willie Woo, bitcoin is not yet ripe for impulse growth and renewal of all-time highs. Now, after a while, we can say that all these experts were generally right: the main cryptocurrency was moving, relying on support in around $55,500 and fixing the local maximum at $60.030 for all the following days, until Friday, November 26. And there was a panic in the markets on Friday. Frightened by the new strain of COVID, investors began to get rid of risky assets, including cryptocurrencies. The total capitalization of the crypto market fell to $2.460 trillion ($2.590 trillion a week ago). And the Crypto Fear & Greed Index has risen from the fear zone to the center of the scale, up to 47 points. The BTC/USD pair was trading in the $54,350 zone at the time of this writing, on the evening of November 26, having found a local bottom at $53,600 before that. A report by analyst firm Glassnode (which was released before November 26) showed that the market is not showing massive profit-taking. Analysts point out that the total supply of short-term bitcoin holders is at a multi-year low below 3 million BTC. This, in turn, means that the amount held by long-term holders is at a multi-year high. At the same time, they are constantly building up their positions. The total number of wallets with a non-zero BTC balance in the second half of November also reached an all-time high of 38.76 million. The data obtained by Glassnode indicates that there are no signs of serious surrender, and that the flagship cryptocurrency may still have a rather long upward rally. A similar opinion to Glassnode was expressed by the CEO of CryptoQuant Ki Young Ju. Despite the fact that bitcoin has been getting cheaper since the middle of last week, holders are in no rush to sell it. In parallel, there is a steady trend towards the withdrawal of cryptocurrency for autonomous storage. According to CryptoQuant, trading floors currently have the lowest amount of bitcoins since mid-2018. Moreover, investors are withdrawing not only BTC, but also ethereum, which reduces the supply of the asset and eases the pressure on the market. In the long term, according to Ki Young Ju, this trend will drive the value of leading digital currencies upward. A well-known trader and analyst known as Credible argues that the current correction of bitcoin is a necessity to continue the bullish trend and rise above $70,000. According to the expert, the first cryptocurrency is in the phase of a healthy correction at the moment. The bitcoin price may fall to $52,000-53,000 in the near future, where the bottom of the current correction is located, Credible predicts. According to him, the $69,000 mark that bitcoin reached on November 10 cannot be the top of the current bull market, as historically each subsequent cycle of growth has lasted longer than the previous one. Chief commodity strategist of Bloomberg Intelligence Mike McGlone, as well as Willy Woo, believes that the main support is slightly lower, at $50,000. At the same time, according to the expert, bitcoin will continue to grow in 2022, where it will face strong resistance around $100,000. Founder of Skybridge Capital investment company Anthony Scaramucci expects that the flagship cryptocurrency “will eventually eclipse gold”, and its price will easily reach $500,000. “I think bitcoin is likely to be ten times better than gold... I would not be surprised if bitcoin grows exponentially and gold grows in line," said Anthony Scaramucci. Mike Novogratz, CEO of investment firm Galaxy Digital Holdings, echoed him saying that gold "was just crushed by bitcoin." The same target level for BTC, $500,000 was named by the CEO of ARK Invest Katie Wood, confirming her previous forecast. True, at the same time, she made a reservation that such a price could be achieved provided that institutional investors allocate 5% of their portfolios for bitcoin. So far, 5% is out of the question. Indeed, the interest in digital assets among big business representatives is growing. So, over a quarter of super-wealthy families around the world have already invested in cryptocurrencies. This is evidenced by the results of a survey of the British consulting company Campden Wealth, conducted among representatives of 385 family offices. The average capital managed by such offices is estimated at $1.6 billion. 31% of wealthy households in North America and 28% in Europe invest in cryptocurrencies, while this share is lower in the Asia-Pacific region, 19%. But at the same time, the share of cryptocurrencies in the portfolios of billionaire families is on average only 1%. The majority of those surveyed (68%) said they plan to keep the volume of crypto investments at the current level next year, 28% are going to increase them, and only 4% are going to reduce them. And at the end of the review, news for Satoshi Nakamoto fans. According to Daniel Leon, COO of the crypto platform Celsius Network, the creator of bitcoin should receive the Nobel Prize in Economics for this invention. "This guy [Nakamoto] has brought hundreds of thousands of people more financial benefits than the bulk of economists in academia," said Daniel Leon. Now the little thing to do is to find out if Nakamoto really existed. After all, the Nobel Committee is unlikely to decide to reward a person who has never existed... *** Clients of the brokerage company NordFX continue to accumulate lottery tickets: the New Year's draw of this Super Lottery will take place soon. And the more tickets, the more chances you have to win one or more prizes ranging from $500 to $20,000. This money will be useful to you, won't it? It is very easy to participate. All the details are available on the NordFX website. NordFX Analytical Group Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited. #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market https://nordfx.com/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stan NordFX Posted December 1, 2021 Share Posted December 1, 2021 CryptoNews of the Week - Police in the Spanish city of Tarragona arrested a 33-year-old man and a woman who installed hidden miners on computers in stores. The undisclosed criminals have infected at least 16 devices in electronics retailers Mediamarkt and El Corte Ingles department stores. According to available information, the woman distracted employees and asked for help to start the laptop, which she allegedly bought in their store. Meanwhile, her companion was installing the Nicehash miner and the Anydesk program for remote access to computers on display sample laptops. The new laptops running at full capacity have raised suspicion among consultants. Mediamarkt's CCTV cameras filmed the accomplices visiting the store three times, and the police were able to identify them from the video. - Investors should take advantage of the latest correction in the digital asset market to build up their positions. This was stated by Anthony Scaramucci, founder of SkyBridge Capital and former director of communications in the Donald Trump administration. He noted that not only fundamental factors, but also the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve, indicate the further growth of cryptocurrency quotes. “If you believe in long-term fundamentals like we do, then now is the time to buy. I just think that the risk is decreasing in the current situation. The volatility of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies is knocking people out of the game. It also washes away some of the leverage, which, in my opinion, creates a springboard for a good first quarter,” the financier explained. Scaramucci stressed that he considers the market reaction "healthy". He called what happened “healing bloodletting”. - The bitcoin network has processed more US dollar transactions than PayPal since the beginning of 2021. This is stated in a report by Blockdata. The average quarterly for the decentralized network was $489 billion, while PayPal had $302 billion. However, both of these figures are inferior to the average quarterly volumes of such giants as Mastercard and Visa ($1.8 trillion and $3.2 trillion, respectively). “It is impressive how bitcoin, being a 12-year-old P2P network, has 27% compared to Mastercard, a company founded in 1966,” Blockdata experts noted. At the same time, in their opinion, the bitcoin network is "fundamentally" different from Mastercard and Visa. It is more of a "saving technology" than a "spending" and has more options for use. Experts believe it is realistic that the cryptocurrency will surpass financial giants as for the volume of transferable value at some point. But to do that, it needs to bridge the bandwidth gap, which they called "staggering." - Option traders are betting on bitcoin decline for six months for the first time since May. As noted by the CoinDesk portal, this situation does not necessarily imply a long-term market decline. The six-month expected volatility is now at historical averages, so options with more distant expiration are relatively inexpensive. Traders can buy put options in the hope of large profits for a small investment if the decline does occur. There is one more explanation for what is happening. It lies in the fact that traders are trying to protect their long positions in the spot market. The price ratio for weekly, monthly and three-month contracts also shifted to the “bears” earlier this month. “Demand is particularly strong for puts with a strike price of $50,000,” the trading firm Paradigm noted. - Cryptocurrency analyst Justin Bennett believes December could be the month of a rally in the cryptocurrency market, with Ethereum (ETH) and Dogecoin (DOGE) potentially leading it. According to the expert, the dollar index (DXY), which compares the dollar to a basket of other fiat currencies, could face a downward momentum and give a bullish signal for the crypto market. In addition, Bennett uses a chart of the total cryptocurrency market capitalization (TOTAL). According to him, TOTAL is approaching the completion of the big bullish falling wedge. He also noted the discrepancy between the growing Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the downward exchange rate movement. A rising RSI during a downtrend is often interpreted as a hint of a bullish reversal. - Imperial Arts French Art Gallery organizes the first ever auction of non-fungible tokens (NFTs) related to personal property owned by Napoleon Bonaparte. The unique auction is held to commemorate the bicentennial of the death of Napoleon I. The auction will feature: Napoleon's cane from St. Helena, a golden snuffbox, a handwritten letter from Napoleon I to General Bertrand, an official imperial bust of the Empire, a miniature Bonaparte portrait and ivory painting in bronze case depicting Napoleon in the form of Colonel Garde chasseurs a cheval. - Mark Yusko, CEO of Morgan Creek Capital Management, believes that owning bitcoin and other crypto assets is a way to avoid rampant inflation. In a new interview with CNBC, the head of the investment firm called BTC an "ideal" savings asset in a world where governments are in a race to devalue their currency. According to the financier, it's not that bitcoin is getting better over fiat currencies. They are getting worse than bitcoin. “There is a global race to the bottom,” says Martin Yusko. In his opinion, investors should not be fooled by day-to-day fluctuations in the price of bitcoin, which do not necessarily reflect its true value. In the next few months, Yusko said, macroeconomic conditions could become "unstable" and owning BTC would be an advantage. - 86% of hacked accounts on the Google Cloud platform are their further use for mining, Cybersecurity Action Team experts said. The software needed to do this was loaded on average 22 seconds after the hack. In many cases, attackers gained access to accounts due to poor protection from the users themselves, analysts noted. - Bitcoin was down $53,360 this week in response to declines in stock indices and commodity futures. The situation is caused by the emergence of a new strain of the Omicron coronavirus. Nigel Green, CEO of the consulting company deVere Group, believes that investors should buy bitcoin right now, during the correction, as its rate will double in a year. “Panic is the right time to buy BTC,” says Green. He also suggested that concerns about the spread of Omicron will be short-lived, and investors will again focus on rising inflation. - According to cryptanalyst and trader Benjamin Cowen, the value of bitcoin will not fall below $50,000. That is, within the framework of the current correction, the fall of the first cryptocurrency will not exceed 25% of the historical maximum set on November 10. A similar situation occurred in September, when bitcoin was correcting after reaching $52,000. Then the value of the asset dropped by 23%, after which the coin returned to growth. Cowen added that the support line for the current bullish trend passes at the $51,000 level. Even if it falls to this level, it is highly likely that the price of the cryptocurrency will push off from this level and begin to rise. At the same time, the specialist admitted that false breakouts of this level could occur. - Crypto strategist known as Smart Contracter believes that bitcoin is almost ready for a recovery. Smart Contracter uses the Elliott Wave Theory, which predicts the future movement of the rate based on the psychology of market participants, which is manifested in the form of waves. According to his calculations, BTC has completed a 5-wave correction movement and is now ready for a new round of growth. “There are no signs of an immediate reversal yet, but I believe we have seen the final volumes of surrender. In my opinion, in the case of a worst-case scenario, the BTC rate should rebound sharply to $63,000. The most positive scenario is a new historical maximum,” the expert said. - The subscribers of the well-known analyst known as PlanB, the creator of the S2F forecasting model, agreed with the opinion that the main cryptocurrency will be able to continue to grow. About 80% of survey participants believe that the maximum recorded on November 10, 2021, around $69,000 is not the limit. According to PlanB, the coin is expected to break through the $100,000 level by the end of the year. However, most of the community members name the $75,000 mark. Ethereum, they believe, is able to rise in price to $7,500 over the same period of time. #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market https://nordfx.com/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stan NordFX Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 Results of November 2021: British Pound is "Favorite" Again NordFX Brokerage company has summed up the performance of its clients' trade transactions in November 2021. The services of social trading, PAMM and CopyTrading, as well as the profit received by the company's IB-partners have also been assessed. - The leader by the end of the month was a trader from India, account No. 1596XXX, who earned USD 207,329 during the month. Such a solid profit was made on transactions with a variety of currency pairs, primarily with the British pound: GBP/USD and GBP/JPY. Other trading instruments of the leader include EUR/NZD, EUR/AUD, and AUD/JPY. - A client from Vietnam, account No. 1416XXX, occupied the bottom line with a result of 37,116 USD in the October TOP-3. A month later, in November, they improved their result more than four times, and climbed to the second step of the podium with a profit of 153,572 USD. - The third place is taken by a trader from India, account No. 1560XXX, whose profit was obtained from transactions with GBP/USD and amounted to 56,254 USD. The passive investment services: - Two signals are currently highlighted in CopyTrading: USD Trading and GFS_FX. The first of them showed an increase of 408% in 43 days of life. 100% of transactions were conducted with the GBP/USD pair, which is favorite of many traders. Such a high result achieved in such a short period can attract many investors. However, the maximum drawdown of 47% indicates the need to be as careful as possible. As for the second signal, GFS_FX, it looks less aggressive. It exists for a little more than six months (196 days) and brought a profit of 135% during this period. The bulk of transactions (more than 70%) is also related to the British pound: these are the GBP/USD, GBP/AUD, and GBP/JPY pairs. The maximum drawdown was 34%, so those wishing to subscribe to it should also be very careful. The lifespan of these signals is rather short and is calculated in months. But, of course, there are long livers in the CopyTrading service. For example, signal MF989923. It has existed for about 7 years, and as a result, it showed an increase of 515%. The signal had serious drawdowns several times during this time, reaching 66%. However, this happened a long time ago for the last time, in March 2020. But trading has since become much less aggressive and less profitable. - KennyFXPRO-The Multi 3000 EA account in 10 months with a fairly moderate drawdown, less than 16%. Among the IB partners, NordFX TOP-3 is as follows: - the first position is still held by a partner from Vietnam, account No. 1258XXX, whose commission in November amounted to USD 8,447; - the next, with a slight lag, is also a representative of Vietnam, account No. 1371XXX, with a result of 7, 225 USD; - and, finally, the third step of the podium is taken by a partner from India, account No. 1504XXX, who received 6,523 USD as a commission. Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited. #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market https://nordfx.com/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stan NordFX Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for December 06 - 10, 2021 EUR/USD: Employment and Inflation Decide Everything Markets are now ruled by two factors: fear of the new COVID strain and monetary tightening by central banks. It is not yet very clear how dangerous the Omicron strain is and how it will affect the economy. Therefore, the main focus is shifting towards central banks and, first of all, the US Federal Reserve. Thus, 19 Reuters experts have named the difference in interest rates as the main market driver, while 15 have pointed to Omicron. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech in the US Senate on November 30 had a bombshell effect on the markets. And all because analysts and commentators saw a harsh hawkish attitude in his words. As a result, stock indices, Dow Jones, S&P500, Nasdaq, flew further down, while the DXY dollar index rushed up. The dollar played back 147 points against the euro in less than an hour, lowering the EUR/USD pair from 1.1382 to 1.1235. However, then the markets calmed down as quickly and, in anticipation of data from the US labor market, the pair went up. Inflation and employment: these two indicators are defining in the current policy of central banks. The ECB continues to insist that the increase in inflation is temporary, so it makes no sense to take measures to contain it now. Although some people believe that the Bank's Governor Christine Lagarde's speech on December 02 hinted at an imminent tightening of monetary policy, however, nothing was said about specific steps. Although it would be possible to tackle this problem already. The data on producer prices released last week look frightening: their growth rates accelerated from 16.1% to 21.9% (against the forecast of 18.3%). These figures indicate that inflation in the Eurozone, which has already reached 4.9%, will not stop there and will continue to grow. As for the European labor market, the progress here is more than modest: unemployment fell by only 0.1%, from 7.4% to 7.3%. Statistics from the US labor market look much better. The number of initial applications for unemployment benefits rose less than expected: to 222 thousand against the forecast of 245 thousand, and the four-week moving average of the indicator fell to the lows of March 2020. At the same time, the number of people receiving benefits for the first time since the beginning of the pandemic fell below 2 million, to 1,956 thousand. But the number of new jobs created outside the US agricultural sector (NFP) was only 210 thousand, which is significantly less than both the forecast (550 thousand) and the previous value (546 thousand). However, this fall does not look so dramatic against the background of the country's labor shortage. Suffice it to say that, due to a shortage of personnel, the number of laid-off people in the United States dropped to a 28-year low. The unexpectedly low NFP data is unlikely to have a strong impact on the Fed's decisions. There are many reasons to believe that the Federal Reserve may accelerate the pace of curtailing the monetary stimulus (QE) program at its meeting on December 14-15. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester and her colleagues Mary Daley of San Francisco and Rafael Bostic of Atlanta actively support the idea of accelerating this process. And Randal Quarles, outgoing vice chairman of the Fed, considers such fiscal and monetary incentives harmful to the economy. In his opinion, they have inflated demand so much that it has exceeded the pre-pandemic level, and the high inflation is no longer temporary, but permanent. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen also believe that the time has come to drop the word "temporary". This means that the inflation forecast will be revised upwards, and the schedule for raising interest rates will become more intense. Most likely, the difference in monetary policy between the Fed and the ECB will continue to put pressure on the EUR/USD pair, pushing it further down. 50% of experts agree with this forecast, while 35% of analysts have taken the opposite position. The remaining 15% vote for the sideways trend. The trend indicators on D1 have a predominantly red color, these are 65%. But there is confusion and disparity among the oscillators: 40% of them point to the south, 35% to the north and another 25% have taken a neutral position. Resistance levels are located in the zones and at levels 1.1380, 1.1435-1.1465 and 1525. The nearest support level is 1.1260, then 1.1235, 1.1185-1.1200, then 1.1075-1.1100. As for the events of the coming week, it should be noted that the data on GDP of the Eurozone for the Q3 will be issued. Increased volatility can be expected on Friday, December 10, when the German and US CPIs, as well as the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index will become known. This indicator is an indicator of the US consumers’ confidence in economic growth and assesses their willingness to spend money. GBP/USD: Back on the Bear Trail? The behavior of the GBP/USD pair last week was similar to that of EUR/USD. It reacted similarly to Jerome Powell's speech in the Senate and to data from the US labor market, and as a result it ended the five-day week at 1.3225. Concerns about Brexit remain the main factor of pressure on the pound. Irish Foreign Minister Simon Coveney said on December 03 that there are still significant differences between the EU and the UK on the application of the Northern Ireland Protocol. The politician added that there was no breakthrough in the negotiations, and that these differences are unlikely to be overcome before the end of this year. The GBP/USD pair failed to gain a foothold above the 1.3300 horizon. According to analysts at Singapore's United Overseas Bank (UOB), the British currency may continue to decline in December, although it will be difficult for it to overcome strong support at 1.3195 (November 30 low). If successful, the pair will open the way to support at 1.3135. For the bulls, task No.1 is to overcome the key resistance in the 1.3300 zone. And if the Bank of England does raise the interest rate on December 16, this will not be a problem. Subsequent resistances are located at levels 1.3360, 1.3410, 1.3475, 1.3515, 1.3570, 1.3610, 1.3735, 1.3835. 30% of analysts hope for the pair's growth in the near future, 45% expect it to fall further, and 25% have taken a neutral position. But the indicators on D1 definitely support the bears. 100% of trend indicators point to the south. The same could be said about oscillators, but 15% of them give signals that the pair is oversold. USD/JPY: Yen Won't Retreat The USD/JPY pair went beyond the trading range 113.40-114.40 at the end of November, and, as most experts expected (55%), continued to move south, reaching the local bottom at the level of 112.52 and having updated the seven-week low. This was followed by a trend reversal, several unsuccessful attempts to return the pair to the 113.40-114.40 channel and a finish at 112.80. The yen is supported as a safe haven currency by investor fears regarding the spread of the Omicron coronavirus strain. However, now that the initial wave of panic has passed, this advantage over the dollar is gradually fading away. It should also be borne in mind that Japan is in a difficult position because the country's debt to GDP ratio is too high. And according to a number of experts, it is necessary to adopt a new package of monetary stimuli, which will put additional pressure on the yen, in order to increase the pace of economic recovery. Until that happens, UOB analysts believe the pair may retest the 1.1250 support, but the chances of breaking below are slim. If it does manage to do so, it will face the next obstacle in the 111.85-112.00 area. According to experts at Credit Suisse, the pair needs to rise above the 113.70-114.00 zone to implement the bullish scenario, and then overcome the resistance at 114.80. This will be a good start for a move to the five-year high of 115.52, which was recorded on November 24. Most of the experts (55%) are currently on the side of the bulls, 25% side with the bears and 20% expect a sideways movement of the pair. 90% of the oscillators are still facing south, but a quarter of them are in the oversold zone, the remaining 10% have turned north. The ratio is 65% to 35% among trend indicators in favor of the reds. The resistance levels are 113.40, 113.70, 114.00, 114.40, 114.70, 115.00 and 115.50, the long-term target of the bulls is the December 2016 high of 118.65. The nearest support level is 112.50, then 112.00 and 111.65. As for macro-economic statistics, data on GDP of Japan for Q3 will be released on Wednesday December 08. This indicator is expected to move from a decline (minus 0.8% in Q2) to a modest growth of 0.4%. CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Overnight Crash in the Thin Market There were no significant changes on the crypto front throughout the working week. Bitcoin and ethereum, along with stock indices and investor risk appetites, even went up at the beginning of the week. But it was only a temporary respite. The cryptocurrency market went down during the night from Friday to Saturday, dipping by about 20%. The BTC/USD pair returned to levels ten weeks ago, falling to $41,620, while ETH/USD fell to $3,510. And this despite the fact that ethereum tried to renew its all-time high just three days before that, rising to the height of $4.771. The true reasons for what happened are not yet clear at the time of writing the review, but it all looks like someone's speculative combination on a thin night market, when major investors are asleep ahead of the weekend days. This version is also supported by the fact that the quotes of the main cryptocurrencies jumped up within a few minutes after the fall. Bitcoin went up 15%, rising to $48,000. It is possible that it was those who were behind this drop that who replenished their stocks of coins very quickly at a "discount" price. Although, this is only a guess. The President of El Salvador managed to take advantage of the drawdown of the flagship cryptocurrency. Nayib Bukele acquired another 150 BTC, increasing his wallet to 1,370 coins. True, at the same time he complained that he slept through the moment of the collapse for only 7 minutes, so he had to pay about $48,000 per coin. At the time of this writing, on the afternoon of December 4, the total crypto market capitalization is at $2.2 trillion, and the Crypto Fear & Greed Index has shifted from the neutral center of the scale to the Extreme Fear zone, to 25 points mark (47 weeks ago). According to Nigel Green, CEO of the consulting company deVere Group, investors should buy this cryptocurrency right now, as its rate will double in a year. “Panic is the right time to buy BTC,” Green said. Mark Yusko, CEO of Morgan Creek Capital Management, who believes that investors should not be fooled by the daily fluctuations in the price of bitcoin, agrees with him. According to the financier, it's not that bitcoin is getting better over fiat currencies. They are getting worse than bitcoin. “There is a global race to the bottom,” says Martin Yusko. Therefore, BTC is an ideal savings asset in a world where governments are in a race to devalue their currency. Much the same thought was expressed by Anthony Scaramucci, founder of SkyBridge Capital and former director of communications in the Donald Trump administration. “If you believe in long-term fundamentals like we do, then now is the time to buy. The volatility of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies is knocking people out of the game. It also flushes out some of the leverage, which, in my opinion, creates a springboard for a good Q1," the financier explained, adding that not only fundamental factors, but also the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve, indicate further growth in cryptocurrency quotes. Time will tell whether these optimistic influencers are right or wrong. For example, cryptanalyst and trader Benjamin Cowen has recently argued that the value of bitcoin will not fall below $50,000. But it did. At the same time, we cannot but mention another negative signal for investors: option traders are betting on bitcoin's decline for six months for the first time since May. The price ratio for weekly, monthly and three-month contracts also shifted to the “bears” earlier this month. And in conclusion of the review, a traditional and not very serious rubric of crypto-life hacks. We will tell you how some are trying to make money on cryptocurrencies. But at the same time, we strongly advise you NOT to follow their example. Police in the Spanish city of Tarragona arrested a 33-year-old man and a woman who installed hidden miners on computers... in stores. The criminals infected at least 16 devices in electronics stores Mediamarkt and El Corte Ingles department stores. According to available information, the woman distracted employees and asked for help to start the laptop, which she allegedly bought in their store. Meanwhile, her companion was installing the Nicehash miner and the Anydesk program for remote access to computers on display sample laptops. The new laptops running at full capacity have raised suspicion among consultants. Mediamarkt's CCTV cameras filmed the accomplices visiting the store three times, and the police were able to identify them from the video. It is probably appropriate to cite here one more figure concerning the criminal mining of cryptocurrencies. According to the Cybersecurity Action Team experts, 86% of the hacked accounts on the Google Cloud platform were subsequently used for mining, and the software required for this was loaded on average 22 seconds after the hack. In many cases, attackers gained access to accounts due to poor protection on the part of the users themselves. Therefore, dear readers, be as vigilant as possible. *** Clients of the brokerage company NordFX continue to accumulate lottery tickets: the New Year's draw of this Super Lottery will take place soon. And the more tickets, the more chances you have to win one or more prizes ranging from $500 to $20,000. This money will be useful to you, won't it? It is very easy to participate. All the details are available on the NordFX website. NordFX Analytical Group Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited. #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market https://nordfx.com/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stan NordFX Posted December 8, 2021 Share Posted December 8, 2021 CryptoNews of the Week - The collapse of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies on December 04 occurred against the background of investors' flight from risky assets and the fall of the stock market. The reason for this was the news about the largest real estate developer in China Evergrande. The media reported that its founder was summoned to the government because of the possible bankruptcy of the company, which could create serious problems for the entire world economy. Analysts at Galaxy Digital Research called general nervousness due to the new COVID-19 strain "Omicron" and because of the statement by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell about a possible acceleration in the pace of curtailing the monetary stimulus program, as the reason for the fall in the crypto market. - Bitcoin is unlikely to have time to renew the highs before the end of 2021 and reach the $100,000 mark after the recent crash. This opinion was expressed by the chief investment officer of Bitwise Asset Management Matt Hougan in an interview with Bloomberg. “I think this level can be the goal for 2022,” the top manager said. In his opinion, the growing support from institutions will be the driver, and there are “fundamental driving forces” for this. Also, giving a forecast for 2022, Hougan predicted an “explosion of activity based on ethereum”. A Bitwise spokesperson highlighted the DeFi, NFT, Web 3.0 and metaverse sectors, as well as the growing potential of altcoins. “Investors will look at Ethereum, Solana or Polygon. They are beginning to understand that cryptocurrency is more than just bitcoin,” says Hougan. - President Joe Biden's administration has published the United States Anti-Corruption Strategy. This is the first time that such a document mentions cryptocurrencies. “The Ministry of Justice will use the established National Cryptocurrency Law Enforcement Group to focus on comprehensive investigations and prosecutions of the criminal use of digital assets,” the Strategy says. This group will focus on "crimes committed by exchanges, mixing services and money laundering infrastructure entities." - A poll by Grayscale Investments showed that more than a quarter of US investors (26%) already own bitcoin, more than half of them (55%) have acquired an asset in the last 12 months. 77% of respondents view digital gold as an investment asset and only 20% see bitcoin as a means of payment. Despite the popularity of the retention strategy, one in six investors sold at least part of their digital assets, 91% of them did so at a profit. - Back in early June, El Salvador's President Nayib Bukele announced that his country was going to mine BTC using energy from the region's volcanoes. He distributed a video at the end of September talking about the start of construction of the corresponding facility. However, one of El Salvador's leading ecologists, Ricardo Navarro, believes that BTC mining using geothermal volcanic energy will eventually lead to an environmental disaster. Such energy is quite expensive, and its price is even higher than that of oil. As a result, in his opinion, the country will simply have to purchase more oil. Navarro also insists that "Bukele is not really aware of what is happening with the energy situation." - The higher the bitcoin rate, the more often it is buried. It is paradoxical, but true: as the quotes grow, skeptics who write obituaries for cryptocurrency become more active. 99bitcoins calculated: the year is not over yet, and BTC has already been predicted death 41 times. The opponents of the coin were even more active only in 2017 and 2018: the premature death of the asset was reported 124 and 93 times then. The latter of the current obituaries is by economist Bill Blain. Blain calls bitcoin a Ponzi scheme incapable of fulfilling the function of money and argues that cryptocurrency accelerates inflation. Unlike a number of other crypto critics, Blain has doubts about blockchain technology as well: “From time to time I dig into the myriad of junk that masquerades as the genius of blockchain, mathematics and computational logic that underlies cryptography. Read it yourself: it's 10% fun and 90% complete nonsense,” he writes. - Well-known analyst and trader Ton Weiss believes that bitcoin has a better chance of reaching a new all-time high this year after the collapse to $42,000. The coin needs to gain a foothold above $53,500 for the bulls to seize the initiative. “I think it will be like a V-turn. We will not have another chance to buy bitcoin below $50,000,” Weiss believes. - The USA called "Moscow City" a hub for illegal cryptocurrency transactions. Experts of the Recorded Future company, which specializes in cybersecurity, claim that there are about 50 crypto exchanges that are engaged in illegal activities in this business center of the Russian capital. Recorded Future concluded that part of the payments to the ransomware went through "Moscow City", reports The New York Times. The US authorities announced In September the imposition of sanctions against the Russian crypto exchange Suex, which has offices in Moscow and St. Petersburg. US officials claim Suex facilitated the withdrawal of ransomware and scammers' funds. This is the first time in US history that the authorities have imposed sanctions on a crypto exchange. — According to Finbold, Americans suffered about $3.94 billion in losses from various cybercrimes in the first three quarters of 2021, which was the highest in history. Thus, cybercriminals stole at least $12.78 million daily. Compared to three quarters of 2020, losses increased by 83% ($1.9 billion). They amounted to about $1.2 billion In the same period of 2019, and $818 million in 2018. - A well-known investor and economist Louis Navellier believes that a large bubble has been inflated in the stock market, which may lead to a strong correction of risky assets. As a result, bitcoin could drop to $10,000. Navellier recalled that a serious fall in the rate of the main cryptocurrency also followed during a similar correction of risky assets in February-March 2020. This time, in his opinion, the situation could be even worse, and bitcoin could lose up to 80% of its capitalization. This may be facilitated by the actions of the US Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy. “A fall below $46,000 (200-day moving average) would be a bearish signal. Bitcoin must fall to $28,500 to complete the double top pattern, and such a decline could indicate a drop below $10,000. This is an 80% decline and bitcoin has already shown similar behavior,” the investor said, referring to the end of 2017. #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds. https://nordfx.com/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stan NordFX Posted December 12, 2021 Share Posted December 12, 2021 Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for December 13 - 17, 2021 EUR/USD: Ahead of the Fed and ECB Meetings We titled this section of the review “Employment and Inflation Decide Everything” last week. It is these two parameters that determine the monetary policy of central banks in the current situation. The next meeting of the US Federal Reserve will take place on Thursday, December 16, and the markets expect the regulator to speed up the procedure for curtailing incentives, and, perhaps, even increase the interest rate. Undoubtedly, these decisions will be influenced by the macro statistics released in recent days. The report from the US labor market published on December 09, looks pretty good overall. The number of initial applications for unemployment benefits was expected to grow by 3,000, but it fell by 43,000 to 185,000 instead. This is the minimum in more than half a century, since 1969. On the other hand, the situation with repeated applications turned out to be worse than forecasted: their number increased by 38 thousand instead of falling by 72 thousand. But if we sum up both indicators, we get a reduction in applications by 5,000, which confirms the trend towards the recovery of the labor market. Moreover, the number of open vacancies has grown by 431 thousand: there is already a shortage of labor in the United States. As for inflation, the higher it is, the greater the chances that the Fed will begin to tighten its monetary policy even faster. And we are talking not only about reducing the repurchase of assets, but also about raising the key rate, which can lead to a further strengthening of the dollar. Inflation in the United States has currently reached record levels in more than forty years and, judging by the data released on December 10, continues to grow. The consumer price index (CPI) rose to 6.8% on an annualized basis in November from 6.2% in October. As for the core index (Core CPI), it was 4.9% YOY, which is also higher than the previous value (4.6% in October). And the market will be now waiting to see how the Fed will react to these numbers at the upcoming meeting. The head of this organization Jerome Powell and his colleagues convinced investors earlier of their readiness for aggressive monetary restrictions. About 70% of Financial Times experts believe that the return of monetary policy to the pre-Covid level will proceed quite smoothly, and the interest rate will reach 1.5% by the end of 2023 (it is 0.25% now). At the same time, only 10% of the surveyed analysts expect that the first stage of the rate hike will occur in the Q1 of 2022, 50% are betting on the Q2. As for the complete curtailment of the $120 billion quantitative easing (QE) program, more than half of the respondents believe that this will happen by the end of March of the coming year. The next meeting of the European Central Bank will be held on the same day as the Fed meeting on Thursday, December 16. We have already written that, unlike the Fed, the ECB plans to take its first step in this direction only in 2023. It will calmly watch the record price increases in the Eurozone countries until then. But there are chances that the European regulator will nevertheless decide to accelerate, following the example of its overseas colleague, and turn from a dove into a hawk. This will be a pleasant surprise for the EUR/USD bulls. And this cannot be ruled out, especially since the hawkish statements of such authoritative officials as Isabel Schnabel are beginning to sound from the depths of the ECB. This member of the Bank's Governing Council said the other day that asset purchases were an important tool during market shocks and recessions, but the balance of QE advantages and disadvantages deteriorates during the period of economic growth, increasing the risks of financial instability. And the market reacted by albeit short-term, growth of the European currency even to this, in general not binding statement of Mrs. Schnabel. In anticipation of the Fed and ECB meetings, the EUR/USD pair revolves around Pivot Point 1.1300 for the second consecutive week. This time, it completed the five-day period near this line at 1.1316. Among experts, 75% expect further strengthening of the US currency, 20% are betting on the growth of the euro. The remaining 5% have taken a neutral position. But the two-week sideways trend causes confusion and discord among the indicators on D1. As for trend indicators, 60% are colored red, 40% are green. As for oscillators, 40% point to the south, 30% to the north and another 30% to the east. Resistance levels are located in the zones and at levels 1.1355, 1.1380, 1.1435-1.1465 and 1525. The nearest support level is 1.1300, then 1.1265, 1.1225, 1.1185, then 1.1075-1.1100 As for the events of the coming week, in addition to the meetings of the Central Banks and subsequent comments of their management, the release of statistics on retail sales in the US on Wednesday December 15, as well as the publication of data on business activity in Germany and the Eurozone on December 16 should be noted. In addition, a meeting of the European Council will take place on Thursday and Friday. GBP/USD: Ahead of Fed and Bank of England Meetings December 16 will bring a lot of excitement to traders: in addition to the Fed and the ECB, the Bank of England will also make a decision on further monetary policy and interest rates on this day. The value of the business activity index in the UK services sector Markit will become known the same day. In addition, data on unemployment will be released on Tuesday December 14 and inflation in the UK consumer market on Wednesday 15 December. The pound weakened last week after the UK government introduced new quarantine measures due to a new strain of COVID-19. According to statistics, the number of infections with the Omicron strain doubles every two to three days. Simple calculations show that with such dynamics, the number of infections may exceed 1 million by the end of the month (10.6 million cases have been recorded in the country since the beginning of the pandemic). The situation is of concern for investors, and therefore they do want to receive information from the Bank of England whether the Omicron coronavirus strain has influenced the plans to curtail the stimulus program. The bulls for the GBP/USD pair were not pleased with weak macro-economic statistics, which turned out to be worse than forecasted. Also, the pound continues to be under pressure from the consequences of Brexit and significant disagreements between the EU and the UK over the Northern Ireland Protocol, due to which, according to British officials, the country is faced with a shortage of goods and supply disruptions. At the same time, 40% of analysts still hope for the pair to grow. But if the Bank of England does not raise rates again, their hopes will melt like the morning fog over London. And given the government's position on quarantine, the regulator is highly likely to leave the rate unchanged at least until February 2022. The majority (60%) of the experts vote for this outcome of the meeting. Pending regulatory decisions, the GBP/USD pair completed the session in the same way it traded a week ago: in the 1.3265 zone. However, despite this, 75% of the trend indicators on D1 still support the bears. Among the oscillators there are 80% of them, the remaining 20% turned upward. Task No.1 for the bulls is to overcome the key resistance in the 1.3285-1.3300 zone. And this will not be a problem if the Bank of England does raise the interest rate on December 16. Subsequent resistances are located at levels 1.3360, 1.3410, 1.3475, 1.3515, 1.3570, 1.3610, 1.3735, 1.3835. The nearest support is located in the 1.3210-1.3220 zone, followed by the levels 1.3195, 1.3160, 1.3135, 1.3075. In case of a breakout of the latter, the pair may fall down to the horizon of 1.2960. USD/JPY: The Yen Holds Defense. It holds it so far If the EUR/USD pair revolves around 1.1300 for the second week, USD/JPY does the same, only around 113.30. The risk appetites that returned to the market and pushed up the stock indices, could not have any significant effect on the Japanese currency, which was supported by the statement of the member of the Board of the Bank of Japan Hitoshi Suzuki. He said commenting on the COVID-19 situation that if the US Federal Reserve starts to cut QE and raises interest rates faster than expected, the Bank of Japan could also raise long-term rates. According to Hitoshi Suzuki, rates may rise as soon as the coronavirus uncertainty disappears, which will help the Japanese economy continue to recover. It is certainly not worth expecting that the increase will take place at the next meeting of the regulator on Friday, December 17. The rate is most likely to remain at the previous negative level of -0.1%. The deputy head of the Bank Masayoshi Amamiya tried to add optimism to investors. The country's economy was in stagnation, but, according to the regulator's calculations, it should recover during 2022, even despite the Omicron strain. The official’s comments came after the very weak data on Japan's GDP for the Q3 were released on Wednesday, December 8. They showed a drop of 0.9% against the previous value of minus 0.8% and a positive forecast of +0.4%. Giving the previous forecast, most experts expected the USD/JPY pair to make another attempt to return to the 113.40-114.40 channel. This is exactly what happened: the dollar began to advance, and it rose to the height of 113.95 on December 8, although then there followed a trend reversal a finish at the lower border of the channel, at 113.40. As for the forecast for the coming week, 80% of experts believe that the pair will go up again with the help of the US Federal Reserve and, possibly, even break through the upper border of the 113.40-114.40 channel. The resistance levels are 113.70, 114.00, 114.40, 114.70, 115.00 and 115.50, the long-term target of the bulls is the December 2016 high of 118.65. Only 20% of analysts vote for the bearish scenario. The nearest support level is 112.55, then 112.00 and 111.65. Among the oscillators on D1, 60% are still facing south, 30% remain neutral, and the remaining 10% have turned north. Trend indicators have a 50-50 draw. CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Overnight Crash in the Thin Market There is still no definite explanation why bitcoin fell below $42,000 on the night of December 04. However, it is worth paying attention to the fact that the fall of the crypto market took place together with the fall of the stock market and the flight of investors from risky assets. The reason for this was the news about the largest real estate developer in China Evergrande. The media reported that its founder was summoned to the government because of the possible bankruptcy of the company, which could create serious problems for the entire world economy. Galaxy Digital Research analysts believe that is not the case. The triggers for the collapse, in their opinion, were the general nervousness due to the new COVID-19 strain Omicron and the statement by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell about a possible faster curtailment of the QE program. Be that as it may but having set a record on November 10 at the height of $68,780, the flagship cryptocurrency is rolling down for the fifth week in a row. And the optimism of experts and investors also decreases along with its value. Bitwise Asset Management Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan believes that bitcoin is now unlikely to have time to update the highs and reach $100,000 before the end of 2021. “I think this level could be the goal for 2022,” said the top manager in an interview with Bloomberg. Growth should be driven by growing support from institutions, and for this, in his opinion, there are “fundamental driving forces”. Louis Navellier, a famous investor and economist, believes that the “driving forces”, on the contrary, are directed downwards. A large bubble has been inflated in the stock market, which could lead to a strong correction of risky assets, as a result of which bitcoin could fall to $10,000. Navellier recalled that a serious drop in the rate of the main cryptocurrency also followed during a similar correction in February-March 2020. This time, in his opinion, the situation could be even worse, and bitcoin could lose up to 80% of its capitalization. And this may be facilitated by the actions of the US Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy. “A fall below $46,000 (200-day moving average) would be a bearish signal. Bitcoin must fall to $28,500 to complete the double top pattern, and such a decline could indicate a drop below $10,000. This is an 80% decline and bitcoin has already shown similar behavior,” the investor said, referring to the end of 2017. Recall that then, a prolonged fall followed after a dizzying rise to $19,270. It lasted about a year and was called the crypto winter, during which the BTC/USD pair lost almost 85%. A sharp turn to the south occurred not only in 2017, but also in the second half of 2019. And, of course, one cannot but recall a very recent example: April-July of this year, when bitcoin quotes sank 55% in three months. These bearish waves hit the pockets and wallets of speculators hard and made us talk about a possible complete and final collapse of the crypto market once again. 99bitcoins calculated: the year is not over yet, and BTC has already been predicted death 41 times. The opponents of the coin were even more active only in 2017 and 2018: the premature death of the asset was reported 124 and 93 times then. The latter of the current obituaries is by economist Bill Blain. Blain calls bitcoin a Ponzi scheme incapable of fulfilling the function of money, and argues that cryptocurrency accelerates inflation. Moreover, unlike a number of other crypto critics, Blain also doubts the blockchain technology: “From time to time, I dig through the myriad of garbage that disguises itself as the genius of the blockchain, mathematics and computational logic underlying cryptography... This is 10% fascinating and 90% complete nonsense,” he writes. Well-known analyst and trader Ton Weiss, unlike Bill Blain and Louis Navellier, believes that it is too early to bury cryptocurrency. In his opinion, bitcoin has a better chance of reaching a new all-time high this year after the current collapse. The coin needs to gain a foothold above $53,500 for the bulls to seize the initiative. “I think it will be like a V-turn. We will not have another chance to buy bitcoin below $50,000,” Weiss believes. If, under negative circumstances, the decline still continues, it will certainly attract the interest of long-term holders. Every time a pullback occurs, investors begin to buy out the fall in anticipation of a new rise in price, and do not allow the crypto market to fall into an uncontrolled collapse. So large bitcoin holders (from 100 to 10 thousand BTC) have already bought 67,000 coins last week. Of course, this is not a lot. Therefore, there is no need to talk about a return to the bullish trend yet. On the contrary, the advantage is still in the hands (or rather, in their paws) of the bears who are trying to push the BTC/USD pair below the $46,000-48,000 zone, where the 200-day moving average passes. At the time of writing the review (on the night of December 10 to December 11), the total capitalization of the crypto market is $2.215 trillion (minus 25% compared to the historical maximum of November 10). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is still in the Extreme Fear zone at 24 points. But the bitcoin dominance index dropped to 39.88%, yielding more and more "territory" to its main competitor, ethereum, whose market share reached 22%. (For comparison, 71.86% for BTC and 10.63% for ETH at the very beginning of the year). The ETH/USD chart shows clearly that ethereum is recovering significantly better than bitcoin after falling on December 04. And if the BTC/USD pair has grown by a little more than 55% over the past five months, the increase in ETH/USD was more than 130%. The main driver of its growth in recent months has been the burning of coins for transactions on the network and the fact that the rate of their burning outstrips the rate of their production. The ethereum network has already burned more than 1 million coins since the activation of the London hard fork. Rahul Rai, the manager of the cryptocurrency fund BlockTower Capital, believes that the versatility of the ethereum blockchain will be the main factor that will attract both developers and investors. He is confident that if ethereum manages to restart the global financial system, its market will be much larger than that of bitcoin in the future. The crypto millionaire predicts that it may be as early as mid-2022. ETH will be the first cryptocurrency in terms of capitalization. Analysts of the American investment bank JPMorgan made a similar statement in April. In their opinion, bitcoin is a consumer commodity. It can compete with precious metals and be seen as a store of value, but it will give way to ethereum in the long run, which is the pillar of the cryptocurrency economy. Director of Bitwise Asset Management Matt Hougan predicted an "explosion of activity based on ethereum" in his forecast for 2022 as well. “Investors will look at Ethereum, Solana or Polygon. They are beginning to understand that cryptocurrency is more than just bitcoin,” says Hougan. *** We are witnessing an explosion in the activity of NordFX clients, who continue to accumulate lottery tickets, because the New Year's draw of its Super Lottery will take place very soon. And the more tickets, the more chances you have to win one or more prizes ranging from $500 to $20,000. There is very little time left, but you can still make it. It is very easy to participate. All the details are available on the NordFX website. NordFX Analytical Group Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited. #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market https://nordfx.com/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stan NordFX Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 CryptoNews of the Week - Miners have already mined 90% of the coins from the total bitcoin emission. The bitcoin network has reached the point at block No. 714000 where it remains to mine 2.1 million BTC, or 10% of the available emission volume. However, the total cryptocurrency supply will not be equal to 21 million coins, as provided by the algorithm. Chainalysis has calculated that 3.79 million BTC could be lost forever. In theory, these coins do exist, but they do not circulate. Also, about 1 million BTC is stored at addresses that are associated with the creator of the first cryptocurrency, Satoshi Nakamoto. These bitcoins were mined early in the development of the network and have not moved since then. Nakamoto left his last public message 11 years ago. Digital gold is expected to reach its emission limit around 2140 as regular halvings gradually lead to a zero-emission rate. - According to the Bitstamp cryptocurrency exchange, the number of women investing in cryptocurrency increased by 198% in the first three quarters of 2021compared to the same period in 2020. The highest percentage of new investors are women between the ages of 30 and 35. It is curious that the most successful female investors and traders are the age group from 55 to 60 years old. They tend to invest larger amounts and earn higher returns. The main reason for this influx is likely the proliferation of information about cryptocurrencies during the coronavirus pandemic. COVID-19 forced many countries to enter lockdowns, which made citizens stay at home for a long time. It is natural that when left without work, people were forced to look for new opportunities to generate income. In addition, fiat currencies are depreciating catastrophically in many countries. However, despite the influx of women into what was previously considered predominantly male, gender balance will still take time. According to a report called Financial Tribes You Need to Know, 66% of investors in the cryptocurrency industry are still male. - The new German government has included cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology in the list of the country's main development directions for the next four years. And now German savings banks have started working on a cryptocurrency wallet project. According to media reports, the plan provides for the possibility of buying and selling digital assets directly through accounts, and customers will not have to undergo additional verification procedures. For reference: there are about 370 savings banks in Germany. Their aggregate database has about 50 million customers, and assets under management are estimated at €1.4 trillion. - According to IntoTheBlock experts, if BTC does not hold above $48,000, the risks of its fall to $43,000 will increase, and it is only at this level that the coin will be able to find a local bottom. About 344,000 wallets purchased 395,000 coins at prices in the area of this support. It is these investors who must prevent further pullback so as not to go into the red. - Attackers hacked the personal Twitter of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. They wrote on his behalf about the recognition of the first cryptocurrency as a legal means of payment in the country. The publication also said that India bought 500 BTC and plans to distribute it to citizens. Attackers also attached a link to a fraudulent site allegedly for citizens to receive their share of coins. As of now, the fake tweet has been deleted. - When the news feed is calm enough, traders begin to pay more attention to technical analysis. And now the legendary trader and techno analyst Peter Brandt warned investors that there is a dangerous double top pattern on the chart of the first cryptocurrency. However, according to a number of experts, this does not mean that the pattern will eventually be fully formed and that the market will go into a deeper correction. The analytical department of Bestchange believes that despite the high risks of continuing the local fall, the main cryptocurrency is able to go up powerfully in the medium term. “The situation is extremely ambiguous today, but mid-term forecasts until mid-2022 are still positive. Bitcoin needs to lose at least half of its capitalization and securely gain a foothold at levels below $28,000-30,000 in order to abandon most positive scenarios. Until this happens, the hope for $100,000 continues to be relevant,” Bestchange believes. According to Nikita Soshnikov, director of Alfacash crypto service, the market will face a long period of depressed sentiment if the double top pattern is confirmed. However, “there is no question of any bitcoin at $5,000 or even $15,000. You can simply forget about such prices for cryptocurrency. But it may well fall below $40,000 and stay at this level for several weeks. I even admit a decline in the rate to $35,000, but going below this mark is unlikely,” the expert predicted. - Elon Musk was named TIME's Person of the Year. The publication noted the impact of the founder of Tesla and SpaceX on life on Earth and “possibly beyond”. "This is a man who seeks to save our planet and help us populate a new one: a jester, a genius, a provocateur, a seer, an industrialist, a showman, a boor, a crazy hybrid of Edison, Barnum, Andrew Carnegie and Dr. Manhattan from The Watchmen," - this is how TIME characterizes the richest person on the planet with a fortune of $265 billion. When asked by a TIME reporter regarding cryptocurrencies, Musk replied that he is “not such a big opponent of fiat. But the cryptocurrency has advantages, since any government, whatever it may be, has a desire to issue." “I was instrumental in the creation of PayPal. And there are few who understand [the monetary system] better than I do,” multi-billionaire said. However, he doubted that digital assets can replace fiat. “Bitcoin can serve as a store of value, but it cannot be a good substitute for currencies for payments. In this regard, even Dogecoin created as a joke is better suited.” Among other things, Musk said in the interview with TIME that he would not be held responsible for how the markets react to his tweets: “Markets are in motion all the time on their own for no reason. Is the reaction to my statements significantly different from the random wanderings that they already have? I do not think so. As you can see from my tweets, this is humor, which I find funny, but not everyone agrees. " - The Weiss Crypto rating agency still adheres to an optimistic scenario despite the protracted correction of the flagship cryptocurrency. Agency analysts support the forecast of colleagues from Bloomberg, who previously announced a high probability of a coin breakthrough to $100,000 in 2022. The chances of reaching this psychological mark exceed the risks of a further fall, according to the Weiss Crypto review. Against the backdrop of the confrontation with China, the United States will accelerate the legalization of the crypto sphere, which will positively affect the value of digital currencies. The authors of the study emphasize that cryptocurrency will be the main beneficiary of the fall of the stock market in the context of tightening the monetary policy by the Fed. Investors can abandon stocks in favor of digital currency as a hedging tool. In addition, the decline in the yield on US Treasury bonds may also have a positive effect on the quotes of BTC and ETH. - According to Michael van de Poppe, creator of the Material Indicators analytical resource, bearish sentiment still prevails among whales. “They have not bought a single drawdown since the beginning of October and have only been selling lately,” he explained. However, following the results of the US Federal Reserve meeting this week, the BTC rate may complete the correction and move to growth on the triggering of the “sell on rumors, buy on the news” rule. A similar scenario emerges based on the analysis of the order book of the Bitfinex exchange. Traders started placing buy orders in the range of $44,500-$46,000, while at the time of writing, the first cryptocurrency is trading above $47,000. #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds. https://nordfx.com/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stan NordFX Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for January 17 - 21, 2022 EUR/USD: Rumors That Drive the Markets The weather on the market is quite often determined by rumors which have very little to do with reality. Or nothing at all. But those who spread them can earn good money by speculating on them. Something similar seems to have happened last week. Recall that the EUR/USD pair has been in a sideways trend since November, fluctuating in the range of 1.1220-1.1385. And most analysts voted for the continuation of such a movement a week ago, with a predominance of bearish sentiment. The US Fed's hawkish intentions to end the emergency stimulus program, raise interest rates, and start normalizing the balance sheet were an argument in favor of the dollar's strength. Note that neither the head of the Fed, Jerome Powell, nor other officials of the American central bank have ever said or even hinted that the rate could be raised four times during 2022. It is unclear where this figure came from, but rumors about such an opportunity began to be actively exaggerated and, as a result, many investors believed in it. Speaking in the US Congress on Tuesday, January 11, Jerome Powell just repeated what he had already voiced earlier. He said once again that the Fed is going to raise the refinancing rate at least twice this year in order to combat a record inflation in forty years, and that if necessary, it can be raised three times. That is, nothing new was actually said. But the market was waiting for the number "four” and was disappointed because it did not sound. As a result, the DXY dollar index went into a deep peak, closing below the 50-day moving average, and the EUR/USD pair, instead of moving south, went north. Thanks to US inflation data, the euro further strengthened its position the next day, on Wednesday, January 12, and the pair EUR/USD, having broken through the border of the medium-term sideways channel, went further up. The breakdown of resistance in the 1.1385 zone served as a trigger for a correction after the strengthening of the dollar that began in May 2021 and the subsequent month-and-a-half sideways trend. The weekly high was reached on the morning of Friday, January 14 at the height of 1.1482. US retail sales and consumer confidence data released at the end of the week were much worse than previous figures, confirming the negative impact of the Omicron coronavirus strain on the US economy. It is not yet possible to predict exactly how much they will affect the next steps of the Fed. But, judging by the reaction of the market, investors decided that such statistics would push the regulator to take more decisive action. As a result, the EUR/USD pair finished at 1.1415. Of course, the dollar may retreat a little more in the short term. However, the difference between the hawkish policy of the Fed and the dovish policy of the ECB should still support the USD. Moreover, the head of the Fed once again stressed in recent comments that the fight against inflation is a top priority for the US regulator, and expressed confidence that the US economy will cope with the rate increase. Also, according to a number of experts, the increase in rates may occur more often than once a quarter, as was the case in the previous cycle of monetary tightening. However, this is just an opinion so far that can give rise to another wave of rumors and expectations. Investors expect to find out what will happen in reality following the results of the January FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting of the US Federal Reserve on January 26-27. At the time of writing, 75% of D1 oscillators are green and 25% are giving signals EUR/USD is overbought. Trend indicators have 65% green and 35% red. Among the experts, the majority (75%) does not exclude the growth of the pair in the coming week. However, the weather vane of opinions turns 180 degrees in the forecast for February, and here it is already 75% of analysts who are in favor of the dollar strengthening. Resistances are located at the levels of 1.1450, 1.1480, 1.1525, 1.1570 and 1.1615. Support levels and zones are 1.1385-1.1400, 1.1300, 1.1275, 1.1220. This is followed by the November 24 low of last year at 1.1185 and the 1.1075-1.1100 zone. As for the economic calendar for the coming week, we can note the release of data on the consumer market of the Eurozone on Monday January 17 and Thursday January 20. The ECB's statement on monetary policy and the issue of statistics on the US labor market are also expected on Thursday. The head of the ECB, Christine Lagarde, is to speak on Friday, January 21. GBP/USD: Bank of England vs Fed: a Game to Stay Ahead Naturally, in addition to the meetings of the FRS and the ECB, the meeting of the Bank of England will also take place in January. It should be borne in mind that, unlike its peers, this regulator started attacking rising prices back in December, and this made a strong impression on the market. After inflation in the UK rose to 5.1%, reaching a 10-year peak, the Central bank of the kingdom raised the rate from 0.1% to 0.25% for the first time in three years. The decision was made despite the worsening epidemiological situation due to a new coronavirus strain. And here the opinion of the head of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, coincided with that of Jerome Powell: for both, the No. 1 task was to reduce price pressure on the economy and society. But the position of the former looks more hawkish, although the rate increase by 15 basis points is not significant. But the first step has been taken, and the market expects a second rate hike in February. Such expectations continue to support the British currency, thanks to which the GBP/USD pair was able to update the high of the last eleven weeks, reaching the height of 1.3748. However, it failed to break above the 200-day SMA, and the last chord of the five-day week, after the strengthening of the dollar in the second half of Friday, January 14, sounded at 1.3678. According to 60% of analysts, the GBP/USD pair may make another attempt to rise above the 1.3800 horizon in the coming days. This scenario is supported by 90% of trend indicators on D1 and 80% of oscillators. The remaining 20% signal that the pair is overbought. However, as in the case of EUR/USD, the scales tilt in favor of the bears, when moving from a weekly to a monthly forecast, and here it is already 55% that are waiting for the pair to move down. Supports are located at 1.3659, 1.3600, 1.3525, 1.3480, 1.3430, 1.3375, the next strong support is 100 points lower. The resistance levels are 1.3700, 1.3750, 1.3835 and 1.3900. Important macro data from the UK will suffice next week. There will be data on unemployment and the average wages in the country on Tuesday, January 18. Then, the consumer price index will be known the next day. In addition, the Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, will speak on Wednesday, January 19, and retail sales for December 2021 will be published on Friday, January 19. This is an important indicator of consumer spending, which also correlates with consumer confidence and is considered as an indicator of the UK economy development pace. According to forecasts, it is expected to fall from 1.4% to minus 0.6%. USD/JPY: The Yen Strength Is the Weak Dollar USD/JPY dropped from 116.35 high (high since January 2017) to 113.47 last week on the back of Jerome Powell's speech and lower US Treasury yields. However, the ultra-dove position of the Japanese regulator is unlikely to further strengthen the yen. The dollar seems to be gaining strength again, and the pair went up again at the end of the weekly session, rising to the level of 114.18. With USD/JPY moving south for the last week and a half, most of the indicators on D1 turned red. Among the oscillators, these are 80% of them, 10% give signals of the pair being oversold, and 10% have already changed their color to green. Among trend indicators, 60% recommend selling, 40% recommend buying. Among experts, 50% vote for the growth of the pair, 40% for its fall, and 10% have taken a neutral position. Support levels are 113.50, 113.20, 112.55 and 112.70. The nearest resistance zone is 114.40-114.65, then there are levels 115.00, 115.45, 116.00 and 116.35. The decision of the Bank of Japan on the key interest rate will be announced on Tuesday, January 18. And it will highly likely remain at the same negative level as before, minus 0.1%. As we wrote earlier, according to this regulator, the country does not need a strong currency, and a weak yen is more likely to help the country's economy, as it supports exports and corporate profits. CRYPTOCURRENCIES: And Here Too, Thank You Jerome Powell Satoshi Nakamoto launched the bitcoin mainnet by mining the genesis block with 50 BTC in January 2009. Only some 13 years have passed since then, and The National Development and Reform Commission of China declares crypto mining “obsolete” in January 2022. It follows from the official statement of this top economic planning body that preference will now be given to cleaner and less resource-intensive industries, and mining is on the list of "obsolete" technologies that will be banned from investment and must be eliminated. William Shakespeare was right; nothing lasts forever under the moon. And after digital currencies were declared “persona non grata” in China, the center of influence on the crypto market shifted completely to the United States. Another proof of this was last week, when a few words from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell were enough to stop the fall of bitcoin and turn the trend of the crypto market upwards. Speaking at the US Senate Banking Committee, Powell said that stablecoins can be used with the Central Bank official digital currencies CBDC (Central Bank Digital Currency is fiat money in digital form, which are issued and provided by the Central Bank). But this is not what allowed crypto quotes to move north, but the general weakening of the dollar and the return of investors' risk appetites. As mentioned above, Jerome Powell made it clear that the Federal Reserve has not yet decided to reduce its balance sheet by almost $9 trillion, and that there will be no four rate hikes in 2022, but no more than three. As a result, the DXY dollar index went down, while stock indices and cryptocurrency quotes went up. BTC/USD dropped to $39,660 on January 10. It has not fallen this low since September 2021. However, then, following the growth of the S&P500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq, it rose to $44,300 on January 12, and the total capitalization of the crypto market exceeded the psychologically important level of $2 trillion once again, reaching $2.091 trillion. But the Crypto Fear & Greed Index did not get out of the Extreme Fear zone, although it rose from 15 to 21 points. It is clear that it is too early to talk about the beginning of a new rally in the crypto market. The BTC/USD pair is 35% below its all-time high, and the total capitalization is still very far from the almost $3 trillion that it reached on November 10, 2021. And, if the dollar starts to gain strength again, we can expect digital assets to return to a downward trend. Of course, crypto enthusiasts predict as usual that top coins will soon rise to new heights. Changpeng Zhao, CEO of the Binance crypto exchange, claims in an article for Fortune that global adoption of cryptocurrencies will jump from the current 5% to 20% in 2022. And Galaxy Digital founder Mike Novogratz sees the 35% drop as just a “healthy pullback.” In his opinion, the main cryptocurrency will find support around $38,000-40,000, after which it will return to growth. Nigel Green, CEO of consulting company DeVere Group, also states that now is the most convenient time to buy bitcoin in the current cycle. However, some experts consider such sentiments to be too optimistic. Thus, the ENCRY Foundation predicts that bitcoin may return to growth only after its price drops to $28,000-30,000. “The flows of liquidity to the markets will decrease in the second half of 2022, after the completion of the asset repurchase program in the United States. Then bitcoin may fall to $30,000,” the company's specialists explain. The current levels cannot yet be described as a market bottom. This is indicated by another expert, Viktor Pershikov, a leading analyst at 8848 Invest. According to him, conditions that have not yet been observed must be fulfilled for the formation of the bottom. This is a long flat (at least two months in the current circumstances) with the accumulation of long positions and an increase in open interest, a decrease in BTC sales by market participants as well as clarification of the speed and degree of tightening of monetary policy by world central banks. “The current state of the crypto market is characterized by emotional selling to a large extent, including at a loss, which is typical for situations when retail participants are shaken out of the market. The current decline does not pose a threat for large BTC holders and is a normal market correction before further growth," Pershikov says. In his opinion, bitcoin will spend most of the year in the price range of $30,000-70,000. It is clear that a serious growth of BTC is possible only with the same growth of interest in it from institutional investors. But they seem to be a problem for now. According to Bloomberg, only 5% of customers surveyed by JPMorgan believe that the bitcoin price will reach $100,000 by the end of 2022. More than 40% believe that it will only return to the $60,000 level. According to bank strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, the fair value of the cryptocurrency ranges from $35,000 to $73,000. As for bitcoin's main competitor, ethereum, crypto analyst Justin Bennett believes that “as long as ETH is below $4,000, you need to be careful” against the backdrop of a downtrend in the entire market. If only ETH returns to this area in the coming weeks and months and can gain a foothold there, then we can talk about the continuation of the strong bullish trend observed in 2021." The analyst also looks at ETH against BTC and believes that the ETH/BTC pair could start a long-term rally to 0.18 BTC ($7.388) for 1 ETH, but this would require holding the 0.075 BTC ($3.077) level as support. All of the above shows that the situation is currently ambiguous. And then how do you make money on virtual currencies? The answer to this question is given in our humorous crypto life hacks column by San Francisco (USA) resident Siraj Raval, who uses his 2018 Tesla Model 3 car for ethereum mining. To do this, he launched the corresponding free software on the Apple Mac mini M1, connecting it to the car's center console. Five graphics cards are powered by the Tesla battery. According to Raval, he mined for about 20 hours a day this way and earned from $400 to $800 a month during 2021. The numbers do look attractive. It only remains to find about $50,000 to buy such a car and find out if the Chinese authorities will not consider this method of mining harmful and obsolete. NordFX Analytical Group Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited. #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market https://nordfx.com/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stan NordFX Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 CryptoNews of the Week - Canadian entrepreneur and Shark Tank TV star Kevin O'Leary spoke to Anthony Pompliano about how sovereign wealth funds in the Middle East are considering mining possibilities. In his opinion, they can enter this space within the next two to three years focusing on the shares of "environmentally friendly" companies. The businessman did not rule out the creation of his own mining company. In addition to the approval of his initiative by the authorities, O'Leary would like to enlist the support of the inhabitants of the territory associated with its deployment. The entrepreneur called the creation of opportunities for mining companies to reflect income from cryptocurrency mining in financial statements as another condition. He believes this will create an incentive to invest for O'Leary and other financiers. - The bubble is deflating, so the bitcoin price may fall to $30,000. This opinion was expressed by specialists from the investment company Invesco in their list of “incredible but possible” results for 2022. “Bitcoin’s mass marketing reminds us of stockbrokers' activity leading up to the 1929 crash,” they write. According to the experts, the drop in quotes from highs around $69,000 to $42,000 in early January is exactly in line with the bubble pattern. This trajectory assumes that the asset will lose 45% of its value within 12 months after the peak. That is, the price will fall to $34,000-$37,000 by the end of October and to $30,000 by the end of 2022. At the same time, Invesco admitted that they made a mistake with the forecast for 2021, when they predicted a fall in the BTC price below $10,000. Analysts explained their mistake by the fact that bitcoin seems to pass not through one, but through a series of bubbles. - Guido Buehler, CEO of SEBA licensed cryptocurrency bank, gave an opposite forecast. He believes that digital gold could rise to $75,000 by the end of 2022, according to CNBC. “Our internal valuation models point to a price between $50,000 and $75,000. I am quite sure that we will see this level,” he said, adding that the volatility of bitcoin will remain high, but the asset will be able to test new record levels, the only question is the timing. TV presenter, filmmaker and former trader Max Kaiser still believes that bitcoin will hit $220,000 this year. He explained in another interview why his forecast was not realized last year. “As for 2021, I said we would get to $220,000 per coin, which is a typical four-year cycle. What we had in 2021 was a massive mining collapse in China, the hash rate fell by 50%. We have recovered since then and are about to reach a new all-time record hash rate. That's why I'm moving my goal from 2021 to 2022." “There is a price, there is a hash rate and there is a complexity setting: these are three things you need to keep in mind,” Max Keiser explains. “I have always said that the price lags behind the hash rate, so once we see its new all-time highs, new all-time highs of the bitcoin price will follow.” - Another cryptocurrency analyst, Justin Bennett, believes that bitcoin is in for a decent rally in the near future. He reviewed BTC historical price movement models that show that the asset is expected to rise by 20-30%. “You can see since the beginning of 2021 that when bitcoin finds a low below the liquidation level, it makes a move up. The average rate of such movement is about 63%, and the lowest was in April, about 27%. – says the expert. “If you take this data and look at the low around $40,000, then a minimum move of around 27% would take the market to around $50,000. This is highly likely given that the $50,000-53,000 range is very important, and sellers will defend this range as resistance. But bitcoin first needs to break the $45,600 mark to start the rally.” - The number of vacancies related to the cryptocurrency industry in the US increased by 395% in 2021. Such data is provided by the LinkedIn social network. The sample has included ads containing the words "bitcoin", "ethereum", "blockchain" and "cryptocurrency". At the same time, the number of vacancies in the technology sector increased by 98% over the year. LinkedIn noted that while most jobs were posted by companies specializing in software and finance, interest in crypto-related candidates was also shown in other areas. We are talking about consulting, accounting, hardware and recruiting. - The owners of the fake YouTube channel of the head of MicroStrategy Michael Saylor lured 26 BTC (about $1.1 million) from one of the users. The scheme of fraud was common and widespread: they promised on behalf of Saylor to “double” any amount sent to the specified address in cryptocurrency. No matter how much is written about this type of scam, there are still those who fall for this bait, driven by greed. “489 of these scam channels were launched on YouTube last week. We complain about them every 15 minutes, they are blocked after a few hours, but scammers launch new ones,” the real Saylor wrote in his verified Twitter account. — According to Peter Brandt, a Wall Street trader with 45 years of experience, he expects a further decline in the price of ethereum. To date, this altcoin has already fallen in price by 36% from its all-time high of $4,878 recorded on November 10, 2021. Brandt is pessimistic as he believes that from a technological standpoint, ethereum is “a very complex, costly, and user-inconvenient platform in terms of its use for NFTs, special tokens, and its involvement in the metaverse.” Based on this, Brandt concludes that ETH will lose points in the eyes of investors, giving way to competitors. - Data from the Glassnode platform shows that investors are buying up ethereum, despite the fall in its value. As mentioned above, this digital currency has lost 36% of its value in two months. At the same time, the number of ETH wallets with a non-zero balance reached a new high of 73,025,019. Network activity is also increasing, which indicates the desire of investors to take advantage of the correction and buy as many tokens as possible. The average daily number of transactions on the blockchain exceeds 1.2 million at the moment. According to Glassnode analysts, ETH will trade in a narrow range until a clear vector of movement for the US stock market is formed. If the capital goes into risky assets again, then the ethereum will resume the rise along with bitcoin. - Popular analyst PlanB is considered one of the main supporters of the theory that BTC will grow to $100,000 in 2021. He developed a forecasting model for the behavior of the bitcoin price (S2F), the signals of which indicated the prospects for such a rise. Despite the fact that the S2F forecast did not come true, PlanB continues to stick to his theory. He is confident that bitcoin has not yet realized the potential laid in it by the 2020 halving. According to the analyst, the coin is now near local lows and is preparing to renew all-time highs in March. According to the analyst, the peak value of bitcoin within the current cycle can be recorded in July-August 2022. Analysts of the Twitter channel Root largely agreed with PlanB's opinion. They also believe that bitcoin's growth cycle is not yet complete and is ready to resume growth. - Umar Farooq, Head of the Cryptocurrency Division at JPMorgan Onyx, compared the current level of development of the cryptocurrency market with the music streaming industry in the 90s. “There was a thing called Napster in the 90s. It was clumsy. Not everyone could use it. And 20 years later, you have Apple Music and Spotify. We live in the era of Napster. We just don't know what Spotify looks like. So I think cryptocurrencies will remain. I just don't know in what form," Umar Farooq said. According to him, the industry has already survived the era of the "Wild West" and has now become an established industry, attracting more and more users. Earlier, the JPMorgan analyst opined that reduced volatility would enable bitcoin to reach $73,000 in 2022, and the “promised” $146,000 in the long term. #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds. https://nordfx.com/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stan NordFX Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for January 24 - 28, 2022 EUR/USD: FOMC Meeting: the Day the Markets Are Waiting For The main event not only of the next week, but of the whole month will certainly be the meeting of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) of the US Federal Reserve on January 26. Will the regulator raise interest rates now? Or in March? Or will it postpone the curtailment of incentives indefinitely? These questions remain unanswered. Recall that the roadmap includes three main points at the moment: 1) curtailing the emergency stimulus program in March, 2) three increases in the key rate in 2022, the first of which may also occur in March, after which 3) the regulator will begin to normalize the balance. However, nothing lasts forever under the moon, the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve either. So, these points are not constant at all and can be changed. Even ECB President Christine Lagarde said last week that the European Central bank has already begun to react and is ready to adjust its policy if facts and figures require it. Although it is not yet very clear what “it has already begun to react” is. And “ready” is a very loose concept. According to the same Ms. Lagarde, a too rapid rate increase could slow down the growth of the Eurozone's GDP. So why then reduce monetary stimulus and raise the key rate, especially since, according to the bank's management, the surge in inflation is a temporary phenomenon? And inflation in the US is growing faster than in the Eurozone. So let the Fed have a headache about how to stop it. And the ECB can wait until 2023 to raise rates, and at the same time see how things go overseas. A clear difference between the US Central Bank's hawkish stance and its European counterpart's dovish stance is a strong support for the dollar, pushing the EUR/USD down. However, there are times when the actions of investors are determined not by real economic and political factors, but by rumors spread by speculators. Something similar seems to have happened on January 11th. Speaking in the US Congress that day, Jerome Powell stated once again that in order to combat the record for forty years inflation, the Fed is going to raise the refinancing rate at least twice this year, and that if necessary, it can be raised three times. That is, nothing new was actually said. But, thanks to rumors, the market for some reason was waiting for the number "four” and was disappointed because it did not sound. As a result, the DXY dollar index went into a deep peak, and the EUR/USD pair went north instead of moving south. Due to inflation data in the US, the euro strengthened its positions even more the next day, January 12, and the EUR/USD pair went further up having broken through the border of the medium-term side channel 1.1220-1.1385. A nine-week high was reached on the morning of January 14 at 1.1482. After that, everything went back to normal. The market realized that there were no real reasons for the euro to strengthen, and the pair found itself within the 1.1220-1.1385 channel once again on Tuesday, January 18, reaching the local bottom at 1.1300 on January 21. The final chord was played at 1.1343. At the time of writing, most (55%) of the D1 oscillators are red, 20% are green and 25% are neutral gray. Trend indicators have 90% red and only 10% green. Among experts, the majority (55%) support the strengthening of the dollar, 45% are for its fall. The nearest resistance zone is 1.1370-1.1385, then 1.1400-1.1435, 1.1480 and 1525. The nearest support zone is 1.1300-1.1315, then 1.1275 and 1.1220. This is followed by the November 24 low of last year at 1.1185 and the 1.1075-1.1100 zone. As for the economic calendar for the upcoming week, besides the FOMC meeting of the US Federal Reserve and the subsequent press conference of its management, we can note the release of data on business activity in Germany and the Eurozone (Markit index) on Monday, January 24. Preliminary data on US GDP will be released on Thursday, January 27, as well as the volume of orders for capital goods and durable goods. (Since the purchase of such goods usually involves large investments, these data reflect the economic situation in the United States, including the inflationary component.) And, finally, data on German GDP will be published at the end of the working week, on January 28. GBP/USD: Rate Up Bet The dollar strengthened its position against the pound slightly over the past week. If the GBP/USD pair was at the height of 1.3748 on January 13, it fell to 1.3545 on the evening of January 21. According to some experts, it's all about he British currency being generally overbought. After the December decision of the Bank of England to raise the interest rate from 0.1% to 0.25% for the first time in three years, the pair showed an increase of about 575 points. So the current fall of 200 points may not mean a medium-term trend reversal, but only a temporary correction. The pound has a lot of chances to return to growth, even despite the hawkish position of the US Federal Reserve. The CPI published on January 19 showed that inflation in the UK rose to its highs in more than 15 years, reaching 5.4% (previous reading 5.1%, forecast 5.2%). The continuing growth of inflationary pressure may force the regulator to raise the key rate as early as at the next meeting on February 03. It is possible that at the same time, against the backdrop of a moderate impact of the omicron strain on the economy of the United Kingdom, plans to reduce monetary stimulus (QE) introduced during the COVID-19 pandemic may also be revised. A survey conducted by Reuters among 45 experts showed that most of them (65%) expect the Bank of England to raise rates again on February 03, to 0.5% this time. If this happens, then, according to Scotiabank strategists, the GBP/USD pair may return to levels around 1.3800. More than 75% of analysts expect the rate to be raised to 0.5% by the end of March. Also, according to the median forecast, the British regulator will raise the rate by another 25 basis points in the Q3 (up to a quarter earlier than expected). After that, another increase will follow, up to 1.0%, approximately at the beginning of 2023. However, as for the forecast for the next few days, 60% of experts side with the bears, expecting the pair to fall at least to the 1.3450-1.3500 zone. Most of the indicators on D1 agree with this forecast: 60% of oscillators point to sell (although 10% are already in the oversold zone), 20% recommend buying and 20% remain neutral. Among trend indicators, 40% look up, 60% look down. The supports are located at 1.3525, 1.3480, 1.3430, 1.3375, the next strong support is 100 points lower. The levels and resistance zones are 1.3570-1.3600, 1.3640, 1.3700, 1.3750, 1.3835 and 1.3900. The Bank of England meeting will only take place in early February, and there won't be much important macro data from the UK next week. The publication of the Markit business activity index may cause increased volatility on Tuesday, January 24. Although, most likely, investors will not pay much attention to it on the eve of the US Federal Reserve meeting. USD/JPY: Yen as a Safe Haven The meeting of another central bank, Japan, took place last week, on January 18. As expected, the key rate remained at the same negative level, minus 0.1%. As we wrote earlier, according to this regulator, the country does not need a strong currency, and a weak yen is more likely to help the economy, as it supports Japanese exports and corporate profits. In general, last week's results for the USD/JPY pair can be assessed as neutral. First, it went up and rose to the height of 115.05 on Tuesday, January 18. Then the trend changed to a downtrend, and the pair dropped to where it was trading a week ago, to the zone of 113.60-114.00 by the end of the five-day period. The Japanese currency was supported by the weakening of the risk appetite of the market. Investors began to abandon risky assets once again in favor of the yen, which plays the role of a "safe haven". The reasons for this change in sentiment were forecasts for rising inflation, uncertainty about the monetary policy of world central banks and the growth of geopolitical tensions. The USD/JPY pair finished last week at 113.66, that is, within the trading range 113.40-114.40, where it has regularly been in the last three months. And although 60% of analysts vote for its growth, 25% for a fall and 15% for a sideways trend, the median forecast suggests that it will stay within this channel. Of course, provided that the US Federal Reserve does not present any surprises at its meeting. And you should not forget about the international political situation, there are also possible surprises, and very unpleasant ones at that. Among the oscillators on D1, 100% are facing south, although 25% of them are already giving signals that the pair is oversold. Among trend indicators, 65% recommend selling, 35% recommend buying. Support levels are 113.50, 113.20, 112.55 and 112.70. The nearest resistance zone is 114.00-114.25, 114.40-114.65, then there are levels 115.00, 115.45, 116.00 and 116.35. CRYPTOCURRENCIES: It Is Not Just Winter in the Crypto Market, It Is Polar Cold Quotes of risky assets remain under strong pressure in anticipation of the US Federal Reserve meeting. The Dow Jones, S&P500 and Nasdaq stock indices have been losing their positions for almost the entire month of January. But as for the top cryptocurrencies, they have been quite successful in repulsing bear attacks for the last two weeks. If we talk about bitcoin, buyers did their best to keep the BTC/USD pair quotes from reaching the psychologically important horizon of $40,000. However, the bears managed to break through the defense on Friday, January 21 and lower the pair to $36,160. The total capitalization of the crypto market flew down as well, falling to $1.72 trillion, and the Crypto Fear & Greed Index was firmly stuck in the Extreme Fear zone, dropping to 19 points. The situation, according to a number of experts, does not bode well for cryptocurrencies at the moment. The bubble is deflating, so the bitcoin price may fall to $30,000. This opinion was expressed by specialists from the investment company Invesco, drawing an analogy with the crash of 1929. The decline from the $69,000 highs is exactly in line with the bubble pattern, analysts say. This trajectory assumes that the asset will lose 45% of its value within 12 months after the peak. That is, according to their calculations, the price will fall to $34,000-$37,000 by the end of October and to $30,000 by the end of 2022. At the same time, Invesco admitted that they made a mistake with the forecast for 2021, when they predicted a fall in the BTC price below $10,000. Analysts explained their mistake by saying that bitcoin seems to be going through not one, but a series of bubbles. (Although, perhaps, Invesco experts were just in a hurry, and this forecast will come true this year). Popular analyst PlanB had made a mistake with his forecast for the past year as well. Recall that he developed a model for predicting the behavior of the bitcoin rate (S2F), the signals of which indicated the prospects for BTC to rise to $100,000 in 2021. Despite the fact that the S2F forecast did not come true, PlanB continues to stick to his theory. He is confident that bitcoin has not yet realized the potential laid in it by the 2020 halving. According to the analyst, the coin is now near local lows and is preparing to renew all-time highs in March. According to the analyst, the peak value of bitcoin within the current cycle can be recorded in July-August 2022. Another unsuccessful predictor was TV presenter and former trader Max Kaiser. He explained In another interview why his forecast of $220,000 for bitcoin was not realized last year. “As for 2021, I said we would get to $220,000 per coin, which is a typical four-year cycle. What we had in 2021 was a massive mining collapse in China, the hash rate fell by 50%. We have recovered since then and are about to reach a new all-time record hash rate. That's why I'm moving my goal from 2021 to 2022." “There is a price, there is a hash rate and there is a complexity setting: these are three things you need to keep in mind,” Max Keiser explains. “I have always said that the price lags behind the hash rate, so once we see its new all-time highs, new all-time highs of the bitcoin price will follow.” Guido Buehler, CEO of SEBA cryptocurrency bank, calls a three times more modest goal. He believes that digital gold could rise to $75,000 by the end of 2022. “Our internal valuation models point to a price between $50,000 and $75,000. I am quite sure that we will see this level,” he said, adding that the volatility of bitcoin will remain high, but the asset will be able to test new record levels, the only question is the timing. Cryptocurrency analyst Justin Bennett's forecast can also be classified as optimistic, although the numbers here are even smaller. Bennett reviewed BTC historical price movement models that show that the asset is expected to rise by 20-30%. “It can be seen that starting from early 2021, bitcoin, finding the minimum below the liquidation level, then makes an upward movement. The average rate of such movement is about 63%, and the lowest was in April, about 27%. - the expert says. “If you take this data and look at the low around $40,000, then a minimum move of around 27% would take the market to around $50,000. This is highly likely given that the $50,000-53,000 range is very important, and sellers will defend this range as resistance. There is no clear opinion on the future of ethereum either. Some still hope that the ETH/USD pair will meet 2023 around $7,000-10,000, while others expect the coin to crash after bitcoin. For example, Peter Brandt, a Wall Street trader with 45 years of experience, expects a further decline in the price of ethereum. In his opinion, from a technological point of view, this altcoin is “a very complex, costly, and user-inconvenient platform in terms of its use for NFTs, special tokens, and its involvement in the metaverse.” Based on this, Brandt concludes that ETH will lose points in the eyes of investors, giving way to competitors. Peter Brandt's forecast is quite controversial. Indeed, the slow protocol has led to delays in transactions and a significant increase in fees. Sometimes a transaction costs more than $50, which is very expensive compared to the competition. For example, the commission is less than a cent in Solana. However, due to its high decentralization, ethereum is still the first in terms of the use of smart contracts. At the moment, this altcoin dominates the rest of the blockchains in the DeFi sector with $157 billion of blocked funds or 66% of the total market. Its lead is even greater in the NFT sector: here ETH is almost a monopoly as its share exceeds 90%. It is possible that its share will decrease over time due to competition, but many experts still promise a bright future for this altcoin. The transition to the proof-of-stake protocol and the subsequent network scaling should help it maintain its leading position. The “X hour” for these steps is scheduled for the Q2 2022 at the moment. However, there is a certain risk that the date will be postponed again. This does not seem to scare investors much though. According to the Glassnode platform, they are buying up coins despite the drop in their value. Ethereum has already lost about 50% of its value in two months. At the same time, the number of ETH wallets with a non-zero balance has reached a new high of 73,025,019. Network activity is also increasing, which indicates the desire of investors to take advantage of the correction and buy as many tokens as possible. The average daily number of transactions on the blockchain exceeds 1.2 million at the moment. According to Glassnode analysts, ETH will trade in a narrow range until a clear vector of movement for the US stock market is formed. If the capital goes into risky assets again, then the ethereum will resume the rise along with bitcoin. But when will this happen? And will it happen at all? NordFX Analytical Group Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited. #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market https://nordfx.com/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stan NordFX Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 CryptoNews of the Week - McDonald's fast-food chain has trolled crypto investors amid the fall of the crypto market. McDonald's joked that the owners of digital assets have to get a job in the catering industry during the bearish trend. The post was liked by the community and gained almost 100,000 likes. In response to the fast-food joke, the CEO of the technology company MicroStrategy Michael Saylor posted his photo wearing a cap with the McDonald's logo and the caption: “Doing my best to buy more bitcoins”. Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele also reacted to the joke about bankrupt crypto investors who are forced to cook burgers. Like Michael Saylor, he tweeted a photo of himself wearing a McDonald's cap. This tweet was immediately commented on by a Shibetoshi Nakamoto, who wrote: "Welcome to the McDonald's family, sir." - But the well-known economist and critic of bitcoin, Nouriel Roubini called on the government of El Salvador in all seriousness to impeach President Nayib Bukele because of his investments in the first cryptocurrency. According to Roubini, the country is on the verge of bankruptcy. “El Salvador’s bitcoin experiment is a real disaster: BTC holders have lost 50% [of the portfolio],” he wrote, calling Bukele a “clown” and a “criminal president” along the way. - McDonald's trolling has not been ignored by other influencers either. So, the director of the Gemini crypto exchange Tyler Winklevoss wrote that he considers the current fall as an excellent opportunity to buy coins on the Big McBottom. And Elon Musk promised to eat the Happy Meal during the TV broadcast "if McDonald's starts accepting Dogecoin." - The collapse of bitcoin creates an opportunity to become richer, says Robert Kiyosaki. Rich Dad Poor Dad bestselling author and entrepreneur said he would buy more digital gold if its price dropped to $20,000. "Profits are made when you buy, not when you sell. Bitcoin is crashing. Great news. I bought BTC for $6,000 and $9,000. I will buy more if the price tests $20,000. The time to get rich is coming." Recall that Kiyosaki predicted a “giant stock market crash” last October and warned that the same fate awaits gold, silver and bitcoin. This is exactly what we are seeing now. - Goldbug and bitcoin skeptic Peter Schiff allowed the collapse of bitcoin below $10,000. In response, Galaxy Digital founder Mike Novogratz offered Schiff a $1 million bet. He promised to send these funds to charity or another purpose of the opponent's choice if BTC trades below $35,000 in a year. At the same time, Novogratz believes that the bear market will be long enough, and therefore does not advise buying on drawdowns now. “It will be difficult for cryptocurrencies to start a rally until the stock market bottoms out. Nevertheless, digital assets have already experienced a significant sell-off and are beginning to receive support from buyers,” he explained. - Ton Weiss, a well-known trader, analyst and former vice president of JP Morgan Chase, does not rule out the completion of the bitcoin correction in the near future. According to him, the cryptocurrency has reached the 20-month moving average (MA), which is at the level of $34,000. Weiss claims that this is a "perfect opportunity" for a trend reversal and the asset's return to growth. According to the specialist, in the event of a rebound, the price of bitcoin will quickly return to the $40,000 level and consolidate above it. - Another cryptocurrency analyst, Nicholas Merten predicts that despite the current market conditions, bitcoin could rise almost 7 times to $200,000 by the end of the year. Merten stated on his DataDash YouTube channel (502,000 subscribers) that if bitcoin's capitalization stays above $600 billion, it will set the stage for the coin's bull run in the coming months. The expert recalled that all rallies occur after corrections and are often spurred on by BTC purchases at heavily discounted prices. Understanding how big players buy is the key to navigating the highly volatile cryptocurrency markets, Merten says. - According to many market participants, bitcoin can go to the $30,000 area, and then it is likely to turn around. Charles Edwards, the founder of the crypto investment company Capriole, wrote that the signal of the NVT (Network Value to Transaction ratio) indicator shows that BTC is oversold: this situation is rare in the market. “We have entered an open buying zone,” Edwards commented on the current situation. Recall that this indicator was proposed and is actively used by the well-known analyst Willy Woo. NVT is calculated by dividing bitcoin's market capitalization by its transaction volume (in USD) and is a popular metric to assess whether the coin is overbought or oversold. - Scott Melker, a trader, analyst, and podcast host, reminded his subscribers that there is nothing unusual about what is happening in the market now. “People have short memories. Bitcoin fell from $60,000 to $30,000 in 10 days in May. 10 DAYS!!! All this has already happened. And that was only 8 months ago. So why be so scared?" he wrote. - The flagship cryptocurrency has captured the mind of Eric Adams, who is now the mayor of New York. It was last Friday, during an epic price drop, that he received his first paycheck in bitcoin and ethereum, which cut his US dollar pay by 15%. However, Adams did not express any regret about this, apparently believing that he would win in the end anyway. "My goal is to send a message that New York is open to technology and encourage our young people to participate in new emerging markets," says the 110th mayor of the US's largest city. - Michael Saylor, founder of MicroStrategy, named two reasons for the current correction in the cryptocurrency market. The first of these is the non-transparent regulation and regulatory uncertainty of the crypto industry. The second problem is the imperfection and immaturity of the crypto industry. At the same time, the businessman believes that the current market conditions provide “an excellent entry point for institutional investors interested in cryptocurrencies, who have been on the sidelines so far.” According to Saylor, a lot of institutional investors are now watching bitcoin and see that it is 40% below the all-time high and that it is consolidating. At the same time, they understand that bitcoin is supported by such serious investors as Bill Miller, regulators, senators, and congressmen, as well as large public companies. As for MicroStrategy itself, this software developer owns 124,391 BTC. The company has spent about $3.7 billion on the acquisition of cryptocurrency. Thus, the average purchase price is $30,100 per 1 coin. #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds. https://nordfx.com/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ben Thompson Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 I just reviews your website where I saw that you are offering very less leverage ratio so it's very tough for scalper cause they always need high leverage like I can see huge scalpers are using FreshForex broker since they are giving 1:2000 ratio leverage Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stan NordFX Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for January 31 - February 04, 2022 EUR/USD: Surprises from the US Federal Reserve The meeting of the US Federal Reserve FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) and the subsequent press conference of its management was certainly the main event of the last week. JP Morgan analysts called the speech of Jerome Powell, the head of the US central bank, the most “hawkish” of all during his tenure. As for the first increase in the federal funds rate this year, there were no surprises: it is likely to take place in March, as planned. True, Jerome Powell did not answer the question of how much it will be increased, 25 or 50 basis points (bp). But at the same time, he made it clear that the Fed will be quite “agile” and “intractable” from now on. Apparently, the regulator will no longer pay attention to either the coronavirus omicron strain or the stock indices collapse and will focus on controlling inflation. The number of possible increases in the refinancing rate in 2022 was a real surprise for the markets. Powell's speech led to the market upgrading the probability of three increases by June from 45% to 60%. In total, there can be five or six of them this year. For example, Deutsche Bank experts forecast a 25 bp rate hike in March, May, and June, and two more acts of monetary restriction before the end of the year. And their colleagues from BNP Paribas have set their sights on six raises. There may even be seven of them If inflation continues to be at a high level in the second half of the year. After all, the head of the Fed has made it clear that the main tool to fight inflation will be the federal funds rate. In addition, the US Central bank has decided to double the pace of rolling back its quantitative easing (QE) program. The volume of government bonds repurchases will decrease by $20 billion per month from next month (now $10 billion), and of mortgages by $10 billion (now $5 billion). All of these hawkish signals have shown that the regulator's stance has become much tighter and have made a huge impression on the derivatives market. The direct correlation between government bond yields and the DXY dollar index was restored, and the index jumped above 97.35. Recall that the euro is the basis of the basket of 6 world currencies that form the DXY, with a share of 57.6%. Therefore, the European currency played a leading role in the growth of the index and the strengthening of the dollar in the current situation. The difference between the Fed's hawkish stance and the ECB's dovish stance has been repeatedly spoken about. The European Central Bank intends to only start raising the rate in 2023, while its counterpart overseas will already be completing this program. And such a divergence does not bode well for the Old World currency. The EUR/USD pair lost more than 220 points at its high in the past week alone, which was a record for the last seven months. The local bottom was found on Friday, January 28 at the level of 1.1121, followed by a slight correction and a finish at 1.1148. Of course, if the US Federal Reserve conducts an ultra-aggressive tightening of its monetary policy, it can lead to a sharp reduction in consumer demand, with all the ensuing problems. But this is not happening so far. And it will always be possible to soften the position even if it ever happens. Therefore, the probability of the pair falling towards 1.1000 is very high. This is the figure that sounds both in the forecasts of strategists and the Internationale Nederlanden Groep, as well as the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce. At the time of writing, 100% of trend indicators and 100% of oscillators on D1 are red, though 30% of the latter are in the oversold zone. Among experts, the majority (60%) are in favor of further strengthening of the dollar, 40% believe that everything is not lost for the euro yet, and the pair will be able to temporarily return to the boundaries of the medium-term side channel 1.1220-1.1385. The nearest resistance zone is located at 1.1185, followed by 1.1220, 1.1275, 1.1355-1.1385 and 1.1485. The nearest support zone is 1.1075-1.1100 and then 1.0980-1.1025. As for the calendar of the upcoming week, the attention of the market will be mainly focused on the ECB meeting on Thursday, February 03. It is not likely to present any special surprises, and the interest rate will remain the same, at the level of 0%. However, certain changes in the monetary policy of the European regulator are still possible. And investors expect to learn about them at the final press conference. In general, the week will be full of macro-economic statistics. There will be data on the GDP of the Eurozone and the consumer market in Germany on Monday, January 31. The volumes of retail sales in Germany, the ISM business activity index in the US manufacturing sector, as well as the results of a study of the European banking sector will be announced on Tuesday. There will be statistics on the Eurozone consumer market and the level of employment in the private sector in the US on Wednesday. The value of the ISM business activity index in the US services sector will become known on Thursday. And in addition to data on retail sales in the Eurozone, we are traditionally waiting for a portion of statistics from the US labor market, including the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector (NFP) on the first Friday of the month, February 04. GBP/USD: How Will the Bank of England Respond? The Markit Services PMI for the UK released on January 24 came in below the forecast at 53.3 versus the expected 55.0. Further, the expected active increase in rates by the Fed, and then preliminary data on US GDP for the fourth quarter of 2021, played on the side of the dollar. They showed an increase that no one expected: 6.9% against the forecast of 5.5% and the previous value of 2.3%. Apparently, the US economy has not only recovered from the COVID-19 attack but has recovered so much that economic growth has even surpassed the 2019 figures. All this has not benefited the British currency of course. And then there are the demands for the resignation of British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, which the market regarded as another bearish factor. As a result, the GBP/USD pair fixed a low at 1.3357, falling by almost 400 points in two weeks. Can the pound return to growth even despite the US Fed's hawkish stance? We are likely to get an answer to this question soon enough. After all, in addition to the ECB meeting, there will also be a meeting of the Bank of England on Thursday, February 03. How can it respond to the Americans? Of course, by a faster rate increase: according to a number of forecasts, the pound rate may be increased by another 0.25 bp, up to 0.50%. For how long will the British currency have such support? Many analysts doubt that the actions of the Bank of England will meet market expectations, and that the regulator will act as aggressively as the Fed this year. Based on this, economists at Rabobank, the second largest bank in the Netherlands, do not exclude that the GBP/USD pair may fall below 1.3000 by the middle of the year. As for the current situation, the level 1.3400 (range 1.3360-1.3415 to be exact) is a very strong support/resistance zone and can serve as a springboard for the pair to bounce up. This development is supported by 30% of experts. The next resistances are waiting for the pair at levels 1.3440, 1.3500-1.3525, 1.3575, 1.3650, 1.3700 and 1.3750. 70% of analysts vote for the further fall of the pair. Supports are located at 1.3360, then 1.3275, 1.3200, followed by a strong December trend reversal zone 1.3160-1.3185. The indicators on D1 look like this: only 10% of the oscillators point to the north, the remaining 90% point to the south, of which 20% give signals that the pair is oversold. Among trend indicators, all 100% look down. In addition to the Bank of England meeting, we should pay attention to data on business activity (PMI) next week: in the manufacturing sector on Feb. 01, in the services sector on Feb. 03 and in the UK construction sector on Feb. 04. USD/JPY: Yen Has Nothing to Answer If the Bank of England has something to respond to the US Federal Reserve, nothing like this can be expected from the Bank of Japan with its forever negative (minus 0.1%) rate. The yen, as a safe-haven currency, is usually supported by investors running away from risky assets. But now the rising dollar and US Treasury bonds are a powerful obstacle in their way. And the Bank of Japan does not really need a strong national currency. As a result, as most experts (60%) expected, the USD/JPY pair rushed north again. True, it failed to reach the high on January 04 at 116.35, but the rise still looks very impressive. If the pair was at the level of 113.46 on Monday, January 24, it reached the height of 115.68 by the end of the working week. The last chord of the five-day period was set at the level of 115.22. At the time of writing, most indicators on D1 point north. Among the oscillators, there are 90% of them (10% of them give signals that the pair is overbought), the remaining 10% are colored red. Among the trend indicators, 100% recommend buying. Experts agree with the indicators: 70% of them side with the bulls, 20% with the bears, 10% are neutral. Support levels are 115.00, 114.45, 114.00, 113.75, 113.45, 113.20, 112.55 and 112.70. The nearest resistance zone is 115.50-115.70, the nearest serious target of the bulls is a new five-year high at 116.35. Any serious macroeconomic statistics from Japan is not expected this week. CRYPTOCURRENCIES: The Calm After the Storm If we talk about cryptocurrencies, nothing terrible happened for them at the January meeting of the Fed. It had long been known that the regulator would tighten monetary policy and reduce monetary injections into the economy. As well as the fact that it will raise interest rates. Yes, this will hit risky assets, but it will draw money from the stock market in the first place. It is possible that things will not reach cryptocurrencies, as a super-speculative asset at all: the volumes are too small. The crypto market grew by leaps and bounds as the Fed flooded the fires of the pandemic with trillions of brand new freshly minted dollars. There will be no more inflow of this money, and it is probably not worth counting on a new crypto boom. Institutional investors will behave much more calmly, but they will not be in a hurry to part with their bitcoins and ethereums either. Everyone who wanted to sell them has already sold. Those who wanted to keep them, kept them as a long-term investment. Of course, any surprises are possible in this industry: both pleasant and not so much so. In the meantime, the crypto market is recovering from the panic that arose before the Fed meeting. Having fallen on Monday, January 24 to $32.945, the BTC/USD pair grew a little and it is trading in the $37,000 zone on the evening of Friday, January 28 at the moment of writing this. The total market capitalization has risen from $1.51 trillion to $1.70 trillion, and the Crypto Fear & Greed Index has grown to only 24 points (11 points at the low of January 23), being stuck firmly in the Extreme Fear zone. So it is clearly premature to talk confidently even about the beginning of a recovery and a trend reversal. Moreover, the BTC/USD chart shows that the strong support that the pair relied on both in 2020 and 2021 is located in the $29,000-30,000 zone. So there is room to fall. Goldbug and bitcoin skeptic Peter Schiff allowed the collapse of bitcoin below $10,000. But Mike Novogratz, the founder of the Galaxy Digital crypto bank, stood up for the flagship currency immediately, offering Schiff a $1 million bet. The banker promised to send these funds to charity or another purpose of the opponent's choice if BTC trades below $35,000 in a year. At the same time, Novogratz believes that the bear market will be long enough, and therefore does not advise buying on drawdowns now. “It will be difficult for cryptocurrencies to start a rally until the stock market bottoms out. Nevertheless, digital assets have already experienced a significant sell-off and are beginning to receive support from buyers,” he explained. Robert Kiyosaki, author of the best-selling book "Rich Dad Poor Dad", also recommends waiting with purchases, saying that he will buy more digital gold only if its price drops to $20,000. "Profits are made when you buy, not when you sell. Bitcoin is crashing. Great news. I bought BTC for $6,000 and $9,000. I will buy more if the price tests $20,000. The time to get rich is approaching,” he wrote. Recall that Kiyosaki predicted a “giant stock market crash” last October and warned that the same fate awaits gold, silver, and bitcoin. This is exactly what we are seeing now. Ton Weiss, a well-known trader, analyst and former vice president of JP Morgan Chase, does not rule out the completion of the bitcoin correction in the near future. According to him, the cryptocurrency has reached the 20-month moving average (MA), which is at the level of $34,000. Weiss claims that this is a "perfect opportunity" for a trend reversal and the asset's return to growth. According to the specialist, in the event of a rebound, the price of bitcoin will quickly return to the $40,000 level and consolidate above it. Another cryptocurrency analyst, Nicholas Merten predicts that despite the current market conditions, bitcoin could rise almost 7 times to $200,000 by the end of the year. Merten stated on his DataDash YouTube channel (502,000 subscribers) that if bitcoin's capitalization stays above $600 billion, it will set the stage for the coin's bull run in the coming months. The expert recalled that all rallies occur after corrections and are often spurred on by BTC purchases at heavily discounted prices. Understanding how big players buy is the key to navigating the highly volatile cryptocurrency markets, Merten says. According to other market participants, bitcoin can visit the $30,000 area, and then it is likely to turn around. Charles Edwards, the founder of the crypto investment company Capriole, wrote that the signal of the NVT (Network Value to Transaction ratio) indicator shows that BTC is oversold: this situation is rare in the market. “We have entered an open buying zone,” Edwards commented on the current situation. Recall that this indicator was proposed and is actively used by the well-known analyst Willy Woo. NVT is calculated by dividing bitcoin's market capitalization by its transaction volume (in USD) and is a popular metric to assess whether the coin is overbought or oversold. Michael Saylor, founder of MicroStrategy, named two reasons for the current correction in the cryptocurrency market. The first of these is the non-transparent regulation and regulatory uncertainty of the crypto industry. The second is the imperfection and immaturity of the crypto industry. At the same time, the businessman believes that the current market conditions provide “an excellent entry point for institutional investors interested in cryptocurrencies, who have been on the sidelines so far.” According to Saylor, a lot of institutional investors are now watching bitcoin and see that it is 40% below the all-time high and that it is consolidating. At the same time, they understand that bitcoin is supported by such serious investors as Bill Miller, regulators, senators and congressmen, as well as large public companies. As for MicroStrategy itself, this software developer owns 124,391 BTC. The company has spent about $3.7 billion on the acquisition of cryptocurrency. Thus, the average purchase price is $30,100 per 1 coin. And if it falls below this level, it will result in multi-million or even billions in losses for the owners of MicroStrategy. And now, a couple of soothing statements to conclude the review. The first is from Scott Melker, a trader, analyst and podcast host, who reminded his subscribers that there is nothing unusual about what is happening in the market now. “People have short memories. Bitcoin fell from $60,000 to $30,000 in 10 days in May. 10 DAYS!!! All this has already happened. And that was only 8 months ago. So why be so scared?" he wrote. The second is from McDonald's fast-food chain, which offered owners of digital assets to get a job in the catering industry during the bearish trend. This is a joke of course. But, as they say, there is some truth in every joke. The McDonald's tweet was liked by the community and quickly gained almost 100,000 likes. NordFX Analytical Group Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited. #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market https://nordfx.com/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stan NordFX Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 CryptoNews of the Week - According to Bloomberg, the residents of Russia possess a huge amount of digital assets worth about $214 billion. This estimate was obtained by analysing the IP addresses of users of the largest crypto exchanges. In addition, according to the University of Cambridge, Russia became the third country in the world in bitcoin mining (11.23%) in the summer of 2021, after the USA (35.4%) and Kazakhstan (18.1%), where many miners migrated after the ban in China. The Central Bank of Russia took the initiative to impose a total ban on everything related to this area on January 20, including the circulation and mining of cryptocurrencies, as well as organizing these operations in the country. However, President Vladimir Putin, instead of a complete ban, supported the proposal of the Ministry of Finance, which provides not for a ban on cryptocurrencies, but for the regulation of their circulation. The President expressed the opinion that the Central Bank should not stand in the way of technological progress. Moreover, Russia has certain competitive advantages, especially in mining, which include a surplus of electricity and well-trained personnel. - Bitcoin is perceived as a “monetary good” and no altcoin can challenge that status for the foreseeable future. Fidelity Digital Assets analysts came to these conclusions. Experts called the first cryptocurrency not only a technology, but also a perfect form of money in their study “Bitcoin First”. It is the most “secure, decentralized form of assets. Bitcoin has the scarcity and longevity of gold combined with the ease of use, storage and transportation of fiat,” they explained. - The persistence of high volatility limits the adoption of bitcoin by institutions. This is how JPMorgan analysts justified the decline in the fair, in their opinion, valuation of the first cryptocurrency from $150,000 to $38,000. The specialists noted that the current 50% pullback from the all-time high has highlighted the nature of the boom-bust cycle, which is an obstacle to adding BTC to the portfolios of large investors. The JPMorgan model assumed that the volatility of bitcoin would converge with the volatility of gold and the alignment of their shares in investment portfolios. And now, bank analysts have admitted that their previous forecast that the bitcoin-to-gold volatility ratio would drop to around 2/1 by the end of 2022 was unrealistic. Therefore, they lowered the fair value of the first cryptocurrency to $38,000, writes Business Insider. JPMorgan did not rule out a further decline in bitcoin quotes, even in the absence of signs of buyer surrender. “Open interest in futures and the volume of exchange balances indicates less panic or liquidation of positions than last May, especially in relation to large crypto investors,” the specialists concluded in their report. - Arizona (USA) Senate Member Wendy Rogers introduced a bill that would approve bitcoin as a transactional currency or a means of payment. According to the bill, the first cryptocurrency will be accepted to pay debts, taxes and government fees as well as other obligations. Rogers has also been noted for other initiatives. One of them suggests the possibility of the authorities paying salaries to their employees in cryptocurrency. The senator has also proposed not to levy taxes or fees for “the use of blockchain technology.” All of these bills must be approved by the Arizona House of Representatives and Senate to be adopted. - Bitcoin could soar to a high of $93,717 this year and is expected to be worth $76,360 by the end of 2022 and close to $193,000 by the end of 2025. This is the average forecast made by industry representatives during a roundtable discussion organized by the analytical website Finder. The discussion was attended by 33 fintech experts, half of whom do not expect the cryptocurrency price to fall even against the backdrop of the upcoming increase in US interest rates. Vanessa Harris, director of the cryptocurrency startup Permission, was among the most optimistic participants in the discussion. She predicts that BTC will peak at $220,000 this year. A much more modest figure was voiced by the founder of the CoinFlip bitcoin ATM network, Daniel Polotsky. In his opinion, the cryptocurrency is unlikely to exceed $60,000 in 2022 as the bubbles created by the US Federal Reserve during the pandemic are now deflating. - Crypto analyst Jason Pizzino believes that despite a solid rebound from its 90-day low of $32,950, the first cryptocurrency is facing a strong resistance. When the price approaches $38,000, it stops because the resistance becomes too strong. At the same time, according to Pizzino, bitcoin will still enter an accumulation period in the medium term, when whales and investors with smart money will begin to invest in cryptocurrency, waiting for its next bullish trend. This may take a whole year, during which the BTC rate will rise. According to Pizzino's forecast, bitcoin is able to reach a new price high in the second half of 2022, but this will not be a sharp upward movement but a series of ascents. - American Express, one of the most recognizable credit card operators, has lost ground in processed transaction volumes to the bitcoin network. This is evidenced by the data of the latest NYDIG report. While the BTC network processed transactions for $3.0 trillion in 2021, for American Express the figure was $1.28 trillion, and this is the best figure in the history of the American corporation. Discover, the 4th largest card operator, posted a result of $0.504 billion, which is also an absolute maximum for the company. Only two famous brands are ahead of bitcoin: Mastercard and VISA. Their result is $7.72 trillion and $13.5 trillion, respectively. However, the gap between them and the bitcoin is steadily shrinking. - Global adoption of bitcoin will certainly contribute to the growth of bitcoin to $1 million. This opinion was expressed by the head of Circle, Jeremy Aller in an interview with Business Insider. He admits that he himself is not a "bitcoin maximalist", but he still believes in new cryptocurrency highs. At the same time, the businessman prefers not to compare bitcoin with gold, believing that the digital asset is much more efficient than precious metals. According to the head of Circle, gold as money is simply useless in modern society. - But analysts at Goldman Sachs, one of the world's largest investment banks, do not share Aller's scenario. In their opinion, the mass adoption of cryptocurrency may, on the contrary, worsen the chances of its long-term growth. Experts argue that the global popularity of digital assets will increase their correlation with traditional ones. This, in turn, will reduce the volatility of cryptocurrencies, as well as reduce their advantage as a diversifying asset in an investor's portfolio. Moreover, according to Goldman Sachs, cryptocurrencies are unlikely to be able to avoid the influence of macroeconomic forces, such as the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve. - Peter Brandt, a well-known Wall Street trader with 45 years of experience, notes that most crypto enthusiasts are now in an extremely bearish mood. Most of the participants in the Laser Eyes flash mob are confident that the price of bitcoin will fall below $30,000 in the near future. According to the expert, this may be a signal to buy the first cryptocurrency. “When the bulls wear laser eyes, it’s time to sell. When bulls become bears, is it time to buy?” Brandt asks. Recall that the “Laser Eyes” flash mob started on Twitter in February 2021, when bitcoin reached a local high of $58,300. After that, many supporters of the first cryptocurrency, in anticipation of its growth to $100,000, posted photos with “laser eyes” as their profile avatar. Co-founder of Morgan Creek Digital Anthony Pompliano, TV presenter Max Kaiser, CEO of Binance crypto exchange Changpeng Zhao, Tesla CEO Elon Musk and other influencers were among the participants in the flash mob. However, instead of rising to $100,000, the flagship cryptocurrency collapsed to $29,000 by June. So, the current remark of Peter Brand is clearly not devoid of logic. Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds. #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market https://nordfx.com/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stan NordFX Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 January 2022 Results: Leaders Ignore Trading on EUR/USD NordFX brokerage company has summed up the performance of its clients' trade transactions in the first month of 2022. The services of social trading, PAMM and CopyTrading, as well as the profit received by the company's IB-partners have also been assessed. The maximum profit in January was received by a client from Vietnam, account No.1467xxx, whose profit amounted to 49.180 USD. This solid result was achieved thanks to transactions with gold (XAU/USD). The second place in the ranking of the most successful traders of the month was taken by a client from China, account No. 1589XXX, who earned 39.151 USD on transactions primarily with the British pound (GBP/AUD, GBP/USD, GBP/JPY), as well as with such pairs as EUR /NZD, EUR/AUD, AUD/JPY. The third place on the January podium went to another representative of Vietnam (account No. 1605XXX), whose result 36.880 USD was also achieved through operations with gold (XAU/USD). The NordFX passive investment services: - CopyTrading still has an active supplier under the nickname KennyFxPro. Signal with the complex name KennyFXPRO - Journey of $205 to $5,000 has shown a profit of 138% since March 2021 with a maximum drawdown of 67%. Their second signal, KennyFXPRO Prismo 2K, started two months later, while its profitability has been 55% with a drawdown of 37%. All trades in both cases were made with NZD/CAD, AUD/CAD and AUD/NZD pairs. We can also note the Hada signal this time, which has shown a profit of 53% in just 70 days of life with a drawdown of 21%. The lifetime of the above-named signals is short, less than a year. In combination with a fairly serious maximum drawdown, this allows them to be classified as a group with a high degree of risk. But, of course, there are long-livers in the CopyTrading service. For example, signal MF989923. It has existed for almost 7 years, and it has shown an increase of 517% during this time. Note that this signal had serious drawdowns several times as well, reaching 66%. True, the last time this happened a long time ago, almost two years ago: in March 2020. But trading has since become much less aggressive and less profitable. - As for the PAMM service, we have to mention the manager under the nickname KennyFXPRO again. They increased their capital on the KennyFXPro-the Multi 3000 EA account by 67% in exactly 1 year with a fairly moderate drawdown of less than 16%. Among PAMM accounts, the TranquilityFX - The Genesis v3 account attracts attention as well. It exists for 303 days and has brought a profit of 47% during this time with a drawdown of 16%. NKFX - Ninja 136 is similar to the two previous accounts as well. Its lifespan is just over 200 days, growth is 36%, maximum drawdown is less than 15%. It should be noted that in most cases, both traders and signal providers and PAMM managers ignored such a popular pair as EUR/USD in their work, making transactions either with gold (XAU/USD), or with pairs GBP/CAD, GBP/JPY, NZD/CAD, AUD/CAD and AUD/NZD. Among the IB partners, NordFX TOP-3 is as follows: - the largest amount of commission, 7.716 USD, was accrued in January to a partner from China, account No. 1336xxx; - next is a partner from India, account No.1593xxx, who received 5.256 USD; - and, finally, a partner from Vietnam, account No. 1371ХХХ, who received 3.913 USD as a reward, closes the top three. Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited. #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market https://nordfx.com/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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