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Yet another meeting focusing Greece’s debt situation is to take place in Brussels during today. Eurozone ministers will continue the discussion on the situation in Greece, considering the upcoming expiry of Greece’s current economic stimulus programmer. If no results to Greece’s financial problems are produced, there is a serious concern that Greece will be headed for a crunch that would force it out of the euro zone. Despite claims that leaving the Eurozone would be better for the Greek people, Mario Draghi, President of ECB refused to discuss the possibility of Greece leaving the single currency. The ministers will also discuss the economic situation in the euro land and will look into EU Commission’s winter forecast, which was published in the beginning of February as well as ongoing economic adjustment programs in Portugal and Cyprus. As the meeting begins at 2 PM GMT (9 AM ET), it is not clear what time there will be any official announcements from the meeting but it is highly likely that this will move markets. Technically speaking, EURUSD is traded in a 200 pip consolidation zone for the past 3 weeks with 1.1480 acting as resistance and 1.1280 as current support. As the Eurozone ministers’ meeting approaches we expect higher volatility during this week with traders focusing on breaking the support at 1.1280, which could then see the pair being traded back in 1.10s zone. On the other hand it should be noted that a solid break and daily close above the resistance at 1.1480 could see the pair advancing to 1.1580 and thus it is imperative that protective measures such as stop orders should be placed when price approaches either boundary of the current consolidation zone.

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The first two European sessions of this week failed to see Euro above the exchange price of 1.1850. It seems that traders are happy to continue selling pullbacks as we get closer to the European Central Bank meeting scheduled for next Thursday, January 22 and the possibility of the adoption of some sort of a QE program. Next week will also see elections in Greece and ECB’s interest rate decision. As there’s not a lot of optimism in Eurozone at present time the pair is likely to test current weekly support levels at 1.1740 and later 1.16440. Should this sentiment change, a break above 1.1850 could see the pair advancing to 1.1950 – a near term resistance caused by last week’s gap.

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EURUSD: Euro plunges to nine-year low vs. the greenback The single currency fell to 1.1860 vs. the greenback in early hours of Asian session on Monday, printing a nine-year low amid speculation that the European Central Bank is getting closer to starting large-scale QE program like the US, UK and Japanese central banks have done in recent times. On top of that, the German government believe that the Eurozone would now be able to cope with a Greece exit if that proved to be necessary, reported by Der Spiegel on Saturday. A correction is certainly underway but the upside should stay limited as traders are happy to continue selling any bounces that were seen in recent weeks. As its first policy meeting of the year approaches, the ECB is now under strong pressure to ease its policy as soon as January 22, while the FED prepares to raise interest rates from a record low near zero. Two major market participants Citigroup and Barclays are now predicting a rate for end-2015 at 1.07, a level not seen since April 2003. CURRENT: 1.1950. Technically speaking the pair found resistance at 1.1980. As this week is filled with major fundamental news, most forecasts are against the euro, closing and staying over the gap at 1.20 seems to be an unlikely scenario. Take a closer look at the markets on Wednesday as the Eurozone will announce its Unemployment rate together with its CPI. Unemployment data will also come on the same day from Germany followed by FOMC Minutes later that day and of course Friday’s NFP numbers.

EURUSD: The single currency sees the New Year at 30 month low vs the greenback Euro plunged as far as 1.2035 at the opening of the first European session in 2015. The president of ECB Mario Draghi said the risk of the central bank not fulfilling its mandate of preserving price stability was higher now than 6 months ago, and confirmed readiness to act early this year should it become necessary. He also urged politicians to implement necessary reforms and reduce tax burdens to support the Eurozone recovery that is “fragile and uneven”. According to IMF COFER data publish recently, the Euro share of global reserves dropped by 1.5 points to 22.6% indicating one of the largest quarterly declines in the share ever. If this trend continues, there may be potential for a faster move lower in the Euro in early 2015. Investors continue to watch developments in Greece, where parliament was formally dissolved on Wednesday after Prime Minister Antonis Samaras failed to become a head of state, casting the country’s international bailout into doubt. Parliamentary elections were set for January 25, almost a year and a half before the current coalition’s term was due to end.

EURUSD – short-term breathing space for the single currency Euro enjoyed +80 points advance against the greenback on Mario Draghi’s readiness for ECB to expand its stimulus program to boost inflation as quickly as possible. Traders shall bear in mind the upcoming annualized report for US Q3 GDP figures coming out in several hours. As the pair found a short term support at 1.2360 and bounced off the recent resistance at 1.2440 during Monday’s quiet trading, traders are more than likely to remain in favour of the Dollar in the coming days, which are filled with major economical events. Technically speaking the pair remains in a down trend heading towards 2012’s July low at 1.21. As Friday’s breakout of the short term trend line returned and is penetrating the 1.2440, traders will be watching out for the coming data from US to take further positions. With no strong movements above its current level in coming hours, the pair is likely to continue its selling course.

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US: Higher interest rates are on the horizon – market experts claim. As the US Dollar Index, measure of the value of the greenback relative to a basket of foreign currencies remain strong and penetrating the 88 points zone, markets bet that interest rates are set to rise next year. Investors’ hope for an interest rates hike should be cooled down as monetary authorities want to be sure recovery remains sustained stepping into 2015. Following the FED minutes meeting, the single currency EURO tested 1.26 level resistance vs the greenback but immediately turned down being unable to break the still forming bearish rectangle. The H4 SMA200 was tested on a couple of occasions in the past 2 trading months and yet again proved to be an important resistance. Following Bank of England’s minutes meeting the British Pound gained some strength retracing from multi-year low at 1.56 to 1.57 only to be put back in the original downtrend minutes after FED’s meeting. Our outlook on both EURUSD and GBPUSD remain the same as no factors can be seen to be buying into the two pairs. There are still a few upcoming events this week traders should look for. Today we are going to find out the CPI figures and Initial Jobless Claims for US. This week will end with European Central Bank President Mario Draghi’s speech.

Are Europe’s top two currencies posed to further declines? As the US Dollar Index climbs to near 88 points area (last seen in in June 2010) the two major European currencies – Euro and Pound continue their decline in value. As recent Bank of England’s inflation report prompted investors to delay expectations for a UK rate hike till late next year and inflation to fall below 1% at some point during the next six month, it’s not an easy task to look for reasons to buy Pound Sterling in the near future. Tuesday’s UK CPI report followed by Wednesday’s Bank of England and FED Minutes report should show a mid-term trend for the British currency. Our view on GBPUSD remains unchanged. As for the single currency, Euro enjoyed a short term gain versus the greenback mainly due to Eurozone’s economic expansion of 0.2% in the three months to September and grew 0.6% from the same period a year earlier with Germany only to just avoid a recession, posting growth of 0.1% in the last quarter. Some good news here however, Greece exited a six-year recession. There are tho no major changes to the overall trend and without new investors the EURUSD is likely to continue towards 1.21 area (last seen in July 2012).

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