HFM

Date: 23rd April 2026. Iran Escalation in the Strait of Hormuz Drives Oil Surge and Risk-Off Markets The double blockade and the Middle East crisis have escalated in the past 12 hours as Iran attacks three ships. Earlier this week, the US seized ships bound for Iranian ports. Tehran now looks eager to match the US actions like for like. This is the first time in recent weeks that Iran has attacked commercial shipping, but the Iranian administration has gone a step further, seizing two ships and taking them to an Iranian port. Analysts and traders are viewing Iran’s decision as a clear escalation and a risk to any potential negotiations. Most political experts advise that the US will now look at an economic war against Iran as the conflict was unable to achieve its objectives. So far on Thursday, the developments are creating a ‘risk-off’ environment. Crude Oil - Iran Escalates In the Strait Of Hormuz The US is yet to comment and confirm whether the information from Iranian state TV is correct. Nonetheless, Iranian TV reported that Iranian authorities seized two cargo ships and took them to Iranian ports without harming their crews. It also reported that they fired on a third ship, without providing further details. The incidents are widely seen as retaliatory, following recent US seizures of Iranian vessels. They also point to a rapidly deteriorating security environment in one of the world’s most critical shipping lanes. HFM - Crude Oil 15-Minutes Chart Due to the developments, the price rose from $89.90 yesterday to a high of $99.55 early this morning. As the news was made public this morning, the price rose almost 5.00% over a period of 30 minutes. Technical analysis is now providing a bullish bias, with the price trading clearly above the 200-bar moving average on smaller timeframes. A concern for investors is that the US is now attempting to pressure Iran to the negotiation table by economic means. The US blockade is not allowing Iranian oil to be exported via Iranian ports, most importantly from Kharg Island. However, if oil does not flow through the pipes, experts advise the whole production and exporting mechanism can be permanently damaged. If Iran reaches this phase, it will be able to export the same level of oil for a prolonged period. This would further pressure oil supplies and keep Crude Oil prices elevated. According to experts, if the Strait remains closed past 15 May, the price can remain above $100 for many weeks. US Dollar - US Dollar Rises As Investors Take A ‘Risk-Off’ Sentiment The US Dollar increases and the stock market declines as a result of the developments in the Strait of Hormuz. The decline among stocks is less certain as the category is clearly in an upward trend and will be strongly influenced by quarterly earnings reports in the upcoming two weeks. However, the upward price action in the Dollar is more directly related to the developments without other external factors. The US Dollar is the best-performing currency of the day followed by the Canadian Dollar. The Canadian Dollar tends to rise with higher oil prices. In addition to the above, Kevin Warsh told the Senate Banking Committee he made no promises to the Republican administration on rate cuts, aiming to show independence from the White House. However, Trump advised he would be disappointed if borrowing costs do not fall after the Fed leadership change. Key Takeaway Points: Iran seized two ships and attacked a third, escalating tensions after recent US moves to seize Iranian ships. Markets turned risk-off; crude oil surged nearly 5% intraday amid supply disruption fears. Strait of Hormuz instability threatens global oil flows, with prices potentially staying above $100. The US Dollar strengthened as investors sought safety; equities showed mixed reactions despite a broader upward trend. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 22nd April 2026. Middle East De-escalation Pressures the Dollar Despite Warsh Hearing. The US Dollar is seeing notable price swings and heightened volatility. Investors are closely watching Kevin Warsh’s hearing, while also reacting to fresh developments in the Middle East. Yesterday, the Dollar was the best performing currency largely due to Warsh reinforcing the Federal Reserve’s independence and tackling inflation. However, the currency is correcting back downwards this morning as the market prices in de-escalation within the Middle East. The best-performing currencies during this morning’s Asian session are the New Zealand Dollar and Australian Dollar. This is due to their recent high inflation reports, which are most likely going to prompt a hawkish monetary policy. Kevin Warsh Hearing Supporting the US Dollar? Meanwhile, US investors are assessing the Senate Banking Committee hearing of Kevin Warsh, a candidate for Chair of the US Federal Reserve. Known for supporting balance sheet reduction, Warsh is seen by analysts as someone who could reduce market liquidity, lift government bond yields, and strengthen the US Dollar. Bond yields rose on Tuesday, which is positive for the Dollar, but are retracing this morning so far. His remarks echoed themes from earlier this week, including a ‘regime change’ in monetary policy and a new inflation framework. Markets saw this as a possible signal of tighter conditions. A day earlier, Donald Trump told CNBC he would be disappointed if Warsh did not cut borrowing costs immediately. That would follow Senate confirmation. However, Wells Fargo CEO Charlie Scharf said that would be the wrong move. He wants more clarity on a possible end to the Iran conflict. He warned a prolonged escalation could hurt household budgets and fuel inflation. Most economists say policy will likely remain uncertain until Kevin Warsh holds his first press conference as Fed Chair. Currently, some senators are delaying approval until the government drops charges against current Chair Jerome Powell over the building refurbishments. While some of the factors above are supportive for the US Dollar, easing tensions in the Middle East are weighing on the currency. This is because lower geopolitical risk tends to reduce demand for safe-haven assets. GBPUSD - The Pound Continues to Perform Despite Economic & Political Risks The price of the GBPUSD is moving in favour of the British Pound despite political and economic risks to the UK. The exchange rate has dipped in the past few days but continues to show little bearish strength and momentum. As a result, the GBPUSD continues to maintain a bullish bias with many indicators. However, if the US Dollar Index gains momentum, the exchange rate may again fall, similar to February and March. HFM - GBPUSD 1-Hour Chart UK macroeconomic expectations have worsened this year amid rising geopolitical risks and weaker business activity. Analysts at Ernst & Young and Deloitte point to the prolonged US–Iran conflict as a key factor, as it is disrupting global supply chains and pushing energy costs higher. EY expects the UK economy to stagnate in the second and third quarters, with annual growth slowing from 1.4% in 2025 to 0.7% this year. Analysts expect the labour market to weaken, with unemployment projected to reach 5.8% by mid-2027, implying around 250,000 job losses. Inflation may approach 4.0% in the second half of the year, well above the Bank of England’s 2.0% target. This morning, the UK’s inflation rate was confirmed to have risen from 3.0% to 3.3% as expected. Investors will now turn their attention to the UK’s Services and Manufacturing PMI reports tomorrow morning. New Zealand Dollar - Can the NZD Break Above the 0.59215 Resistance Level? The main factor supporting NZD/USD was stronger Q1 inflation data. Headline CPI rose from 0.6% to 0.9% (QoQ), above the 0.8% forecast. The details were more concerning, with non-tradable inflation, a key measure of domestic price pressure, rising 1.1% versus the RBNZ’s 0.9% estimate, and reaching 3.5% annually. Tradable inflation was lower at 0.7% quarterly and 2.5% yearly. These figures also do not yet fully reflect the impact of disruptions linked to the US-Iran conflict and the Strait of Hormuz supply risks. As a result, investors have raised expectations for tighter monetary policy, with a rate hike now priced in by July and up to three 25-basis-point increases expected by year-end. HFM - NZDUSD 1-Hour Chart The New Zealand Dollar is one of the best-performing currencies of April and is trading above key Moving Averages. However, the resistance level at 0.59215 is a real concern for technical analysts. The asset has fallen at this resistance level on five occasions over the past week alone. Key Takeaways: Warsh’s hearing initially supported the US Dollar, but easing Middle East tensions are now pressuring it lower. Markets view Warsh’s stance on Fed independence, inflation, and balance sheet reduction as supportive of the Dollar. GBP/USD is still holding a bullish tone. This is despite weakening UK growth expectations, rising inflation, and concerns over the labour market. The New Zealand Dollar is gaining support from inflation. Stronger CPI data has boosted expectations of RBNZ rate hikes, though 0.59215 remains a key resistance level for NZD/USD. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 21st April 2026. S&P 500 Surge: What Could Break or Make the Rally Next? The S&P 500 continues to finish higher, driven by growing investor confidence that the US–Iran conflict will not intensify. In the span of just three weeks, the index has reversed a 10% stock market crash and climbed back to record highs. Currently, the S&P 500 is trading at +3.65% for 2026. The question now is whether three major upcoming events can keep that momentum intact. Kevin Warsh Hearing Kevin Warsh is the US President’s nominee to take over the Federal Reserve Chairmanship. However, in order for Mr Warsh to be appointed, he must first be approved by the Senate. The Senate hearing will take place this afternoon, where Mr Warsh will likely be questioned on the Fed’s independence, interest rates, and the current investigation into the building renovation of the Federal Reserve. Questions may also include his wealth, which amounts to almost $200 million. So far, Mr Warsh has already made it clear in the past few days that he believes the Federal Reserve must remain fully independent. Even though this was not the primary driver, it has supported stocks in the past few days. Investors will largely be focusing on Kevin Warsh’s view on interest rates. In the past, the individual has been known to be an inflation hawk and opposed to quantitative easing. If investors feel he would bring a hawkish view to the Fed, stocks may come under pressure. Whereas, if the individual seems to follow the President’s hawkish stance, stocks potentially will rise. Meanwhile, US Fed Board member Christopher Waller stated that a quick resolution to the US-Iran conflict would allow officials to move towards interest rate cuts at the end of the year. However, otherwise, high inflation could become entrenched across a wide range of goods and services, and real economic activity and employment could begin to decline. According to the Chicago exchange, under the current conditions, an interest rate cut is not likely until March 2027. Earnings Season Earnings season is likely to impact the S&P 500 more than the NASDAQ and the Dow Jones. Currently, investors seem to be pricing in positive results from the upcoming earnings data. If the companies provide positive earnings per share, revenue, and remain optimistic about demand, the stock is likely to obtain further support. This week, investors will be mainly focusing on the following reports: Tesla, the 8th most influential company in the index, reports tomorrow evening. Lam Research, the 31st most influential company in the index, reports tomorrow evening. Philip Morris, the 42nd most influential company in the index, reports tomorrow before the market opens. IBM, the 43rd most influential company in the index, reports tomorrow evening. Intel, the 30th most influential company in the index, reports Thursday evening. American Express, the 47th most influential company in the index, reports Thursday before the market opens. Procter & Gamble, the 29th most influential company in the index, reports Friday. JPMorgan raised its S&P 500 year-end target to 7,600, driven by strong AI-led earnings growth, while warning that geopolitical risks could still cause short-term volatility. HFM - S&P 500 Daily Chart US-Iran Deadline Investors remain focused on the Middle East. Late last week, reports said Tehran may halt its nuclear programme. It could also transfer enriched uranium to third countries. In return, it seeks access to frozen assets and security guarantees. On Friday, Iran allowed partial ship passage through the Strait of Hormuz. This boosted market optimism and supported alternatives to the Dollar. However, the US refused to unblock Iranian ports and seized a container ship. Iran then cancelled new talks scheduled today in Islamabad. Yesterday, Donald Trump warned Iran again to accept US peace terms. He said its transport and energy infrastructure could be destroyed if it refuses. Experts now see rising risks of renewed hostilities. A closure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is also possible. This could push hydrocarbon prices higher. So far, investors are not showing clear risk-off sentiment. Some speculate Iran may still attend negotiations. Trump told journalists he is unlikely to extend the deadline. He said Iran must show real signs of accepting US terms. If tensions ease and oil stays below key levels, the S&P 500 may remain above $7,000. Key Takeaways: S&P 500 momentum remains strong, rebounding from a 10% drop to record highs in just three weeks. Kevin Warsh’s Senate hearing is a key risk, with his stance on interest rates likely to influence market direction. Earnings season is critical, with major companies reporting and positive results already priced into the market. Geopolitical tensions remain a wildcard, as US–Iran developments could impact oil prices and overall sentiment. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 20th April 2026. Oil Prices Surge After the Strait of Hormuz Closure | Markets Brace for Volatility. Oil Prices Surge as the Strait of Hormuz Closes Again, Boosting Market Volatility Global financial markets opened the week under pressure as oil prices surged following renewed tensions in the Middle East. The sudden closure of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical oil routes, has reintroduced volatility across commodities, currencies, and equities. The development comes at a sensitive time, with investors also focusing on a heavy week of US corporate earnings, creating a complex market environment driven by both geopolitics and fundamentals. Oil Prices Jump on Supply Fears Crude oil markets reacted sharply to the escalating situation. US crude rose over 5% to around $87 per barrel, while Brent crude climbed above $95 after gaining as much as 7.9% earlier in the session. The rally followed Iran’s decision to reverse its reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, citing tensions linked to a US naval presence. The move has raised concerns about disruptions to global supply, as the route handles nearly 20% of global oil and LNG flows. Donald Trump confirmed that a US Navy blockade of Iranian ports remains in place and announced the seizure of an Iranian-linked vessel. The escalation has heightened fears of further conflict between the United States and Iran. Sector Impact: Energy Gains, Transport Under Pressure Rising oil prices are already driving divergence across sectors. Energy stocks are benefiting from higher crude prices, while industries sensitive to fuel costs, such as airlines and transport, are facing pressure. Consumer-related sectors may also be affected if higher energy costs translate into increased inflation. This rotation reinforces the idea that markets are becoming more sector-driven rather than broadly directional. Stock Markets Show Resilience Despite Rising Risk Despite the sharp rise in oil prices, global equity markets have remained relatively stable. Asian markets moved higher, with gains in Japan’s Nikkei 225, South Korea’s Kospi, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index. This suggests investors are not fully pricing in a worst-case scenario. Instead, markets appear to be reacting cautiously to headlines while maintaining a degree of optimism. However, US stock futures edged lower, with the S&P 500 pulling back after recently hitting record highs. The shift reflects growing sensitivity to rising energy costs and geopolitical uncertainty. Earnings Season Offsets Geopolitical Pressure One key reason equities are holding up is the ongoing US earnings season, which is expected to be a major market driver this week. Strong corporate results and forward guidance are helping to support investor sentiment, even as macro risks increase. This is creating a more selective market environment, where individual stocks and sectors are moving more than the broader indices. Dollar Strength Signals Caution In currency markets, the US Dollar strengthened, particularly against the Japanese yen, signalling a mild shift towards risk-off sentiment. A stronger dollar is significant because it can: pressure commodities priced in USD weigh on emerging markets limit gains in gold and cryptocurrencies Gold prices, notably, declined slightly despite geopolitical tensions, highlighting how currency movements are currently shaping market behaviour. Market Outlook: Oil and Geopolitics in Focus Looking ahead, the direction of markets will largely depend on developments in the Middle East and whether the Strait of Hormuz reopens. If tensions escalate further, oil prices could continue to rise, increasing inflation risks and weighing on global growth. On the other hand, any progress in US-Iran negotiations could quickly stabilise energy markets and support risk assets. For now, investors are navigating a market shaped by headline-driven volatility, where oil prices, geopolitical developments, and earnings results are all playing a critical role. Key Takeaway for Traders The current market environment is being driven by a combination of rising oil prices, geopolitical tensions, and earnings season momentum. Oil remains the primary driver of sentiment, with the US Dollar acting as a confirmation signal, while equities are increasingly influenced by company-specific results. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 16th April 2026. EURGBP Outlook: Orbán Exit vs Hormuz Crisis - What’s Next for the Euro? The European currency market is currently at a crucial crossroads. On the one hand, a political wind is blowing from Budapest, but on the other, the shadow of the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz is creating a thick fog of uncertainty for the European Central Bank (ECB). Wednesday, April 15, 2026, saw a slight but significant movement in the EURGBP pair, which settled at 0.8699. This figure is not just a statistic; it reflects the struggle between political optimism and industrial fragility. The ECB's Full Options and the Influence of the Strait of Hormuz ECB policymaker Joachim Nagel gave a clear signal that the policy decision next April will not be rushed. With Eurozone inflation surging to 2.5% (the highest level since early 2025), the ECB has chosen to maintain ‘full optionality.’ Why is the Strait of Hormuz s crucial? Energy Shock: This disruption to global oil distribution routes directly increases energy costs, stifling the manufacturing sector. Price Mandate: ECB President Christine Lagarde emphasized that monetary policy will remain restrictive. There is no promise of a rate cut as long as inflation expectations are not "tame" at 2%. The Post-Orbán Dominance Effect Positive sentiment stems from the changing political landscape in Hungary. The end of Viktor Orbán's 16-year term in office is seen by markets as a step towards stronger EU integration. This relief rally has given the euro additional strength. Markets are starting to price in lower fragmentation risks, making the euro appear more resilient compared to the pound sterling, which is still weighed down by the UK's slow domestic economic recovery. Industrial Fragility vs. UK GDP Expectations Despite the Euro's political strength, Germany's economic engine remains stuttering. A 0.3% decline in industrial production in February demonstrates that Europe's core sectors are still struggling with stagnation. Across the Channel, the UK faces its own dilemma. Although February GDP is expected to grow slightly by 0.1%, price pressures stemming from the Iran conflict remain a long-term threat to British purchasing power. EURGBP Technical Analysis Technically, EURGBP on the daily timeframe is in a prolonged consolidation phase, stuck within a price range between 0.8600 as strong support and 0.8864 as key resistance. Currently, the price is showing rejection after attempting to break through the supply zone around 0.8741, with the moving average indicator trending flat. This confirms the loss of dominant trend momentum, supported by the Awesome Oscillator moving down to the zero line, signaling market indecision in determining the next direction. As a precautionary measure, the primary focus is on the 0.8700 to 0.8750 area as a short-term direction indicator. If the price fails to stay above the moving average (50-day moving average) and breaks below 0.8684, the next downside target will be to retest the lower boundary of the corridor at 0.8636. Conversely, a solid break above the psychological level of 0.8750 is needed to open up the opportunity for further gains towards 0.8788, while keeping an eye on the release of Bank of England monetary policy data, which will be a catalyst for volatility in the pound. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Ady Phangestu HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 14th April 2026. Markets Rally on Fragile US-Iran Peace Hopes as Oil Volatility Signals Ongoing Risk. Global financial markets are once again being driven by geopolitics, as the conflict involving the United States, Iran, and Israel enters its seventh week. Despite a clear escalation, including a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, investor sentiment has turned surprisingly optimistic. This has created a notable divergence across asset classes, where equities are rallying on hopes of diplomacy, while energy markets continue to reflect real supply risks. Equities Rally as Markets Look Beyond the Conflict US equity futures remained relatively stable following a strong rally, with the broader market showing clear resilience. Most notably, the S&P 500 has now erased all losses triggered by the Iran conflict, signalling a shift in investor mindset. This move comes despite failed negotiations over the weekend. Instead of reacting to the breakdown in talks, markets are focusing on forward-looking signals. US President Donald Trump stated that Iran had reached out to negotiate, while Tehran confirmed its willingness to continue discussions under international frameworks. The key driver is simple: markets are pricing the probability of a diplomatic resolution rather than the current escalation. Oil Remains the Pressure Point Energy markets are telling a more cautious story. Oil prices initially surged following the US decision to impose a blockade, reflecting immediate concerns over supply disruptions. West Texas Intermediate approached $99 per barrel Brent Crude briefly traded above $99 Prices later pulled back toward the mid-$90s range as optimism around renewed talks emerged. However, the underlying risks have not disappeared. The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints, and any sustained disruption continues to threaten global supply. This explains why fuel prices are already rising sharply across major economies, even as headline oil prices fluctuate. Inflation and Central Bank Caution The surge in energy costs is beginning to filter into inflation data. US price growth accelerated in March, largely driven by higher oil and gas prices, although core inflation remained relatively stable. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent emphasised that the Federal Reserve should remain patient. Policymakers are adopting a “wait and see” approach as they assess whether energy-driven inflation will persist or fade. This places central banks in a delicate position, balancing: Slowing global growth due to geopolitical uncertainty Rising energy-driven inflation pressures Market expectations for eventual rate cuts Bitcoin Follows Risk Sentiment Cryptocurrencies are once again behaving like traditional risk assets. Bitcoin climbed to a four-week high near $75,000, while Ethereum posted strong gains. The move reflects improving sentiment across broader markets rather than safe-haven demand. In fact, Bitcoin has outperformed many traditional assets since the conflict began, reinforcing its growing correlation with equities. Bonds Signal Underlying Caution While equities are rallying, bond markets continue to reflect a more cautious outlook. Strong demand for long-term government bonds, particularly in Japan, highlights ongoing uncertainty around the economic impact of the conflict. Yields have edged lower as investors position for: Potential slowing of growth Controlled inflation over the medium term A more cautious approach from central banks This divergence between equities and bonds suggests that markets are not fully aligned on the outlook. Commodities and Credit Markets Rebound Industrial metals have moved higher, supported by optimism that tensions may ease and economic activity will stabilise.Copper and aluminium prices have both advanced, reflecting improved sentiment. At the same time, global credit markets are showing signs of recovery. Borrowers, particularly in Asia, are returning to debt markets after weeks of subdued activity, taking advantage of a temporary window of stability. Bond issuance activity is at its busiest in over three months Credit spreads are tightening, signalling improving investor confidence A Market Driven by Expectations, Not Reality At the centre of the current market dynamic is a clear disconnect. Geopolitical risks remain elevated, yet financial markets are increasingly focused on the potential for de-escalation. The US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is a significant escalation, designed to increase pressure on Iran. However, markets are also interpreting it as a strategic move to force negotiations rather than prolong the conflict. This explains why risk assets continue to rise even as tensions remain unresolved. What Comes Next Markets are now entering a phase where short-term direction will be dictated by headlines rather than fundamentals. Key areas to watch include: Progress in US-Iran negotiations Oil price stability and supply flows through the Strait of Hormuz Corporate earnings from major banks such as JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley Signals from central banks regarding interest rate policy Final Thoughts Financial markets are currently pricing in a scenario where diplomacy ultimately prevails. However, this optimism remains fragile and highly sensitive to developments on the ground. As long as the Strait of Hormuz remains under pressure and negotiations are uncertain, volatility is likely to persist across all major asset classes. The current environment highlights a key reality: markets are not reacting to what is happening now; they are reacting to what they believe will happen next. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 10th April 2026. US Dollar, Oil & Euro Analysis: Safe-Haven Demand Rises As Negotiations Fail. The US Dollar fell to its lowest level since the first days of the US-Iran war as inflation rose less than previously thought. The Dollar and financial markets more broadly now appear different after the US withdrew from negotiations. In addition to the negotiations failing, the US are advising that they will place a blockade on the straits this afternoon. As a result, the US Dollar instantly rose 0.43% this morning, and Crude Oil again rose above $100. The US Dollar Remains The Favoured Safe Haven Asset Generally, lower inflation figures are known to have a negative impact on the currency. At first, the US Dollar did dip to a 6-week low, but without being able to maintain momentum. So, why did the US Dollar rebound? The US inflation rate rose from 2.4% to 3.3% but fell below analysts’ previous expectations. Analysts were previously expecting the inflation rate to rise between 3.4-3.5%. However, traders remain focused on rising inflation and the fact that the outlook for interest rates remains unchanged. According to the Chicago Exchange, there is an 83% chance of no rate cuts in 2026, a 3% chance of a small hike and a 13% chance of a 0.25% cut. For this reason, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy remains relatively restrictive, supporting the US Dollar. Also, the inflation rate reading lower is prompting a positive real bond yield. As a result, the Dollar remains an attractive hedge against inflation. Regardless of the above, the US Dollar’s safe haven status is also playing a large role on Monday. The US military said it will begin a blockade on Monday targeting vessels entering or leaving Iranian ports after weekend talks in Islamabad failed to secure a deal, putting the fragile two-week ceasefire at risk. This development is creating a “risk-off” appetite on Monday. Ships travelling to non-Iranian ports through the Strait of Hormuz will still be allowed to pass. However, Washington warned it would intercept any vessel that pays a toll to Iran, signalling renewed tensions. Crude Oil Back Above $100 Per Barrel HFM - Crude Oil 15-Minute Chart For Crude Oil, the main price driver remains the developments in the Middle East, with negotiations failing and the attempt to block the Straits. The asset opened trading with a bullish price gap of 9.77% and rose to a high of $105.65. Analysts advise that forward guidance is not necessarily reliable, as the price is driven day by day by ongoing developments. If the Iranians return to the negotiating table, the price is likely to fall back closer to $97. However, if the conflict escalates again, the price can rise to above $110. Euro – Hungary Elections HFM - EURUSD 30-Minute Chart The latest developments coming out of the Euro are from its far eastern flank, Hungary. Hungary’s election saw 79% of its population vote for a new Prime Minister and party after 16 years of the same party rule. The new Prime Minister, Peter Magyar, is sceptical of Europe but is a supporter of the EU. Generally, Europe view him as an easier partner than Viktor Orban, who sided more with Russia and the US. The move may seem positive for the Euro; however, the outlook continues to remain the same. Currently, due to the dollar's strength, the Euro is likely to remain shaky. Currently, the Euro Index is trading 0.36% lower due to the decline against the Dollar. Of the nine main currencies, the Euro is currently the fifth-best-performing. Furthermore, March inflation data from Germany showed that the consumer price index rose by 0.2% to 1.1% month-on-month, while annual inflation increased from 1.9% to 2.7%. The harmonised index also accelerated, rising from 0.4% to 1.2% monthly and from 2.0% to 2.8% annually, mainly due to higher energy prices linked to the Middle East conflict. Even so, the European Central Bank expects inflation expectations to remain contained, reducing the need for further monetary tightening. Key Takeaway Points: The US Dollar rebounded as traders focused on steady rate expectations and a positive real bond yield. Markets show renewed safe-haven demand after the US withdrew from negotiations. Rising geopolitical tensions pushed crude oil back above $100, with failed talks and a possible blockade driving fresh supply fears. Lower-than-expected US inflation weakened the Dollar only briefly, as restrictive Fed policy continues to support the currency. The Euro faces mixed pressure, with stronger German inflation offset by Dollar strength and limited expectations for further ECB tightening. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 10th April 2026. Why Is Middle Eastern Geopolitics Dictating the Fate of the South African Rand? Global financial markets have just experienced a three-day period resembling an emotional rollercoaster. After strengthening sharply to 16.24 per USD thanks to optimism surrounding a ceasefire on April 8, the South African Rand is now once again on the verge of systemic weakness. Tehran's re-closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the intensification of attacks in Lebanon have erased the risk premium that had subsided. As a high-beta currency, the Rand is highly susceptible to the risk-off phenomenon. When uncertainty increases, investors tend to abandon emerging market assets and turn to safe havens. However, the main driver this time is not simply sentiment, but energy fundamentals: South Africa is a net energy importer. Any spike in oil prices due to disruptions to global supply chains automatically puts pressure on the current account and triggers expectations of higher domestic inflation. Monetary Dilemma: Between the SARB and the Shadow of the Fed The current dynamics of the USDZAR are no longer traded solely based on the individual fundamentals of each country, but rather on the complex interaction between central bank policy and global inflation. SARB's Transformation: The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) has shifted its narrative from dovish to highly cautious. With interest rates at 6.75%, the SARB's room for maneuver has narrowed. Although inflation briefly touched its 3% target, the risk of imported inflation due to the weakening Rand and soaring fuel prices forced the central bank to delay the rate cut cycle. Dollar Dominance and US Yields: Although the dollar index (DXY) briefly slipped below 99, market attention is now fully focused on the release of the March CPI data. If US inflation data exceeds expectations, the "higher for longer" narrative will regain strength, pushing US bond yields up and putting double pressure on emerging market currencies like the Rand. Strategic Projection Given the current price structure, the USDZAR is expected to remain trapped in a high volatility corridor. Pessimistic Scenario (Bearish ZAR): If peace negotiations fail and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, we will see massive capital flight that could push USDZAR beyond 16.50. The combination of oil prices around $100 and a strengthening dollar would be a devastating catalyst for South African assets. Optimistic Scenario (Bullish ZAR): The rand will only gain sustained upward momentum if the ceasefire is fully implemented and expectations of a Fed rate cut return to the table due to declining US inflation. Technically, USDZAR is currently in a critical transition phase, where failure to maintain the psychological level of 17.00 has triggered a sharper correction. The dominance of negative histograms on the Awesome Oscillator (AO) confirms the presence of strong bearish momentum, indicating that the current selling pressure is not merely a temporary fluctuation but a real threat to the previous uptrend structure. If the price consistently closes below 16.25, validating a decline towards the round 16.00 level becomes a very logical technical scenario. Fundamentally, this movement reflects the Rand's sensitivity as a high-beta asset to geopolitical risks in the Middle East and the uncertainty of the global inflation path. Although the SARB's 6.75% interest rate cushion provides an interest rate cushion, South Africa's dependence on energy imports makes the currency highly vulnerable to shocks in the Strait of Hormuz. Therefore, the future direction of the USDZAR will depend largely on whether risk-off sentiment subsides, allowing a recovery above 16.50, or whether strong US inflation data will push the pair back to test resistance at 17.00. Elegantly, the USDZAR currently reflects the fragility of global stability. As long as geopolitical risks in the Middle East remain a volatile variable, South Africa's domestic economic fundamentals will remain under the shadow of global energy price fluctuations. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Ady Phangestu HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 9th April 2026. Oil Outlook Uncertain as Hormuz Stays Shut, High-Yield Currencies Rebound. Oil prices are again increasing in value after witnessing a significant drop the previous day. The main drivers for the upward price movement are the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed and Iran insisting that ships can pass after paying a duty fee. As the US and Iran came to an agreement to start a 15-day ceasefire in order to allow time for negotiations, the price of Crude Oil fell 22%. The price has since risen 8% but still remains lower than the previous price range from the week before. The projections and possible trends within Oil will likely depend on two factors. The first is if the negotiations will end with an agreement or if the conflict will resume. The second is whether oil tankers will start moving through the Strait and if they will indeed be charged. Crude Oil Latest Developments HFM - Crude Oil 1-Hour Chart The US and Iran are preparing for talks in Islamabad tomorrow in order to attempt to come to an agreement. The US has advised that Vice President JD Vance will be attending the talks. Iran has stated it has achieved its strategic objectives and has rejected US proposals, instead presenting its own conditions. These include controlling tanker transit through the Strait of Hormuz via the IRGC, ending hostilities, and receiving reparations. Both sides aim to reach a final agreement within 15 days, although this may be extended. However, if an agreement is not reached, there is a possibility of the conflict resuming. If it does resume, it would again impact oil prices and global inflation. So far, the development has allowed the price of both Crude and Brent oil to fall. However, the decline has continued for a second day due to concerns over the shipping route. Iran has agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz for two weeks but will maintain full control over transit. Authorities plan to charge fees for vessels passing through, with estimates ranging from $2.0M per tanker to $1 per barrel, while empty ships may pass for free. Each tanker must notify Iranian authorities in advance and receive approval before transit. Officials have warned that any unauthorised vessels could face severe consequences. Currency Reaction - NZD and AUD Back On Top! Since the ceasefire agreement was made public, the market was quick to unwind previous trades and return to a similar scenario to before the conflict began. As a result, the currencies which are benefiting most are the New Zealand Dollar and Australian Dollar. Over the past week, the NZD has risen 1.85% and the AUD 1.73%. The worst-performing currencies have been the US Dollar and the Japanese Yen. Investors are reducing their exposure to safe-haven currencies and returning to currencies which are currently least at risk to trade tensions and offer higher interest rates. Both the Reserve Bank of Australia and New Zealand are among the most hawkish central banks at the moment. HFM - NZDUSD 1-Hour Chart Silver (XAGUSD) - Demand Continues to Grow The price of Silver is experiencing both up and down volatility despite the strong decline in the price of the US Dollar. Nonetheless, many economists expect the long-term outlook for Silver to remain positive because demand continues to be stronger than supply. According to the Silver Institute, the market will face a supply shortage for the sixth consecutive year. It forecasts a deficit of 67 million ounces this year, bringing the total five-year shortage to more than 800 million ounces. Although supply is still growing, it is not increasing fast enough to meet demand. Total supply is expected to rise by 1.5% to 1.05 billion ounces, while mine production may grow by 1.0% and recycled silver by 7.0%. At the same time, silver stocks on COMEX have fallen sharply in recent months, showing that available silver in the market is becoming more limited. Key Takeaway Points: Oil rebounded after Tuesday’s sharp drop, as uncertainty over Hormuz transit and Iranian duty fees revived supply concerns. The next move in oil will depend on whether negotiations succeed and whether tanker traffic resumes normally. Risk sentiment improved after the ceasefire, lifting the NZD and AUD while the USD and JPY weakened. Silver’s long-term outlook remains positive, as demand continues to outpace supply for a sixth straight year. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 8th April 2026. Two-Week Ceasefire Transforms Market Sentiment. Markets on Wednesday looked markedly different from the conditions seen over the past month, with oil recording its sharpest decline in almost six years. At the same time, equities and gold posted strong gains, while bond yields finally moved lower. The first wave of volatility was due to the comments from the Israeli and US administration on Tuesday afternoon. The comments indicated that the conflict would significantly escalate and enter a completely new phase. The US had started striking Kharg Island, while Israel hit infrastructure, while Trump also advised that they would hit power plants after midnight. However, the price movement quickly changed later in the evening as Iran and the US came to a temporary agreement. The main reaction to this was Crude Oil falling 21% and the stock market rising on average by 4%. US-Iran Agreement The US and Iran have come to a temporary two-week ceasefire agreement, marking a significant de-escalation after weeks of military conflict. The agreement is the first made after five weeks, with both the US and Israel adding significant pressure as the deadline was approaching. A key part of the deal is the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil route amounting to 20% of global exports. Iran will allow safe passage for energy shipments through the Strait with no restrictions. In the previous week, some ships were allowed to pass but only for certain countries. The agreement was reached just hours before a US military deadline, helping to stabilise markets and reduce immediate geopolitical risk. However, the agreement remains a short-term solution, with both sides using the ceasefire period to negotiate a lasting deal. Key disagreements remain, including sanctions and Iran’s nuclear programme, leaving the longer-term outlook uncertain. Nonetheless, the agreement is a de-escalation and market participants are focusing on this for now. NASDAQ - Market Sentiment Returns Technical analysis is for the first time on larger charts now indicating some strength within the stock market. The price movement is largely due to market sentiment improving due to the recent agreement, potential rate-cuts and lower bond yields. HFM NASDAQ 4-Hour Chart According to the Fed Watch Tool, the possibility of a rate hike in April is now low and the possibility of a rate cut in the summer has returned. This is having a strong impact on the stock market in general, with all global indices rising. However, most economists advise that inflation will not allow the Federal Reserve to cut rates. Later in the week, the US will announce the latest inflation rate, where analysts expect inflation to rise to 3.5%. The higher inflation rises, the more pressure will be applied on the NASDAQ and stocks in general. Notably, in a joint interview for The Indicator from Planet Money, two US Federal Reserve officials, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, stressed that inflation remains a greater concern than labour market conditions, reinforcing expectations of further US monetary tightening. Goolsbee specifically warned that tariff-driven price pressures, combined with rising energy costs amid escalating Middle East tensions, could trigger a ‘stagflationary shock’. Currently, over 95% of the components within the NASDAQ are trading higher on Wednesday. In addition to this, the Put-Call ratio is falling along with the VIX (-12%). These factors indicate bullish price movement for the NASDAQ, but may not indicate a new all-time high. However, a full correction to the previous average price would see the target close to $25,191. Gold Rebounds As Bond Yields Fall The price of Gold is now trading at its highest price since March 19. A key factor for the price of Gold is the decline in the US Dollar as well as lower bond yields. Bond yields are trading at 4.2380, the lowest since March 17. If bond yields continue to fall, particularly if below 4.2000, the price of Gold can find significant support. In addition to this, the US Dollar has also fallen 1.25%, also supporting the price of the commodity. The global gold market is currently worth about $31.0 trillion. By the end of 2025, humanity had mined nearly 220 thousand tons of gold, according to the World Gold Council. Jewellery holds the largest share at 44.0%. Bullion and coins account for 21.0%, while central bank reserves make up 18.0%. Industrial use represents 10.0%, over-the-counter investments 5.0%, and ETFs 2.0%. HFM Gold 1-Hour Chart Key Takeaways: Markets reversed sharply after a US–Iran ceasefire, with oil dropping 21% while equities and gold surged. The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz eased supply fears, but the agreement remains short-term and uncertain. Stock market sentiment improved on lower yields and rate cut expectations, though inflation remains a key risk. Gold strengthened as bond yields and the US Dollar declined, supporting demand for safe-haven assets Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 7th April 2026. NIKKEI 225 Outlook in 2026. The Japanese NIKKEI 225 has been the best-performing stock market of 2026. Despite difficult market conditions, it has still risen by more than 6%. However, throughout the month of March, while geopolitical conflicts escalated, the NIKKEI 225 was the worst-performing. What does this mean for the Japanese stock market? Why is the NIKKEI 225 the best-performing of 2026? The Japanese NIKKEI 225 trend was primarily supported by strong corporate earnings, a weaker yen boosting export competitiveness, and fiscal changes under a new government. Structural reforms and improved shareholder returns have also enhanced confidence, attracting both domestic and international capital. The new Japanese Prime Minister, Takaichi, is a supporter of fiscal stimulus and a looser policy. For example, the new PM was quick to introduce more tax breaks and restructuring measures aimed at supporting Japanese companies. In addition to this, the new administration further expanded the country's benefits programme, aiming to boost consumer demand and families. As a result, investors were quick to trade the ‘Takaichi Trade’. In addition, relatively stable monetary policy from the Bank of Japan has provided a supportive backdrop compared to more restrictive policies elsewhere. This has helped sustain liquidity and risk appetite, allowing the index to outperform despite global uncertainty and ongoing geopolitical tensions. In 2026, up to the point of the conflict, the NIKKEI 225 had risen almost 20% in a period of less than three months. The Middle East Crisis The Middle East crisis was the pivotal point at which the trend came to an end. Upon the geopolitical sphere deteriorating, the index lost all gains from 2026 and did not find support until reaching the year’s lows. The Japanese stock market saw a larger decline in comparison to other competitors as the country is more reliant on oil imports from the Strait of Hormuz. Whereas US and European countries do not rely on that region to necessarily support energy products. A positive factor for the Japanese stock market in recent days is that Iran has allowed a few Japanese ships to pass through the Strait. Nonetheless, the crisis continues to have a negative impact on the Japanese stock market. What are Analysts Expecting for the NIKKEI 225? HFM - NIKKEI225 8-Hour Chart Analysts remain broadly constructive on the NIKKEI 225, although expectations have become more cautious after its strong rally and the recent rise in geopolitical risk. The outlook will largely depend on how the conflict continues to develop. If the conflict escalates further, the NIKKEI 225 may come under pressure from lower investor sentiment. However, this is something which will be a common issue throughout the global stock market. Under such conditions, the asset will see sell signals strengthen if the price falls below 53,157.60. However, a price above 53,189.00 indicates a bullish outlook based on the 75-period EMA. If the conflict does end with the Strait being reopened, previous projections may again be relevant. A Reuters poll published on 24 February showed a median forecast of 58,500 by the end of 2026. Key Takeaways: The NIKKEI 225 is the best-performing major index of 2026, driven by earnings, a weaker Yen, and pro-growth policies. The rally reversed sharply in March as Middle East tensions escalated, wiping out earlier gains. Japan’s reliance on oil imports via the Strait of Hormuz makes its market more vulnerable to geopolitical shocks. Analysts remain cautiously bullish, but the outlook depends heavily on how the conflict develops. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 6th April 2026. 15 Ships Cross the Strait As Iran Consider Ceasefire. Crude Oil reached its highest price throughout March at $119 per barrel, but it was relatively quick to fall closer to $100. However, Iran continues to target neighbouring countries' oil production facilities. As a result, Oil has been rising for two consecutive weeks and is now trading at almost $112 per barrel. Over the weekend, Iran increased its attacks, particularly on Abu Dhabi and Kuwait triggering strong volatility. Abu Dhabi authorities said operations at the Borouge plant were suspended after debris from an interception hit the facility. Kuwait said Iranian drone attacks damaged two power plants and sparked fires at oil facilities. Most countries observe Monday the 6 as a bank holiday for Easter, so some markets are closed and others see lighter order flow. Crude Oil - Iraqi Ships Allowed To Cross Strait Of Hormuz There are many factors pushing the price of Oil upwards including Trump’s escalating comments and the recent Iran attacks. In addition to this, OPEC’s recent report on the forward guidance of the market conditions also worries investors. According to OPEC, the region will not be able to return to full capacity after the conflict ends for over two years. As a result, the market is likely to face tighter global supply conditions, with Russian exports remaining constrained by ongoing sanctions and Middle Eastern production also under pressure due to the recent disruptions. This combination could reduce the amount of available supply in the market and keep upward pressure on prices. The market is attempting to reduce the stress on the supply issues within the oil sector. OPEC has made a statement publicly confirming that certain countries will boost the production levels above previous restriction. Iraq told Asian traders and refiners to continue crude loadings after Iran allowed its oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has confirmed that 15 ships moved through the Strait over the weekend after being granted access. However, it is unknown whether these are linked to Iraq. Japan is advising that two of these 15 ships are Japanese. Saudi Arabia has increased the official selling price of its main crude grade for Asian buyers to a record-high premium. The move also suggests that buyers may be willing to pay more to secure reliable cargoes amid ongoing concerns over global energy flows and Middle East production risks. Investors say oil is unlikely to rise above $120 per barrel if the conflict ends within two weeks. Experts believe sanctions on Russia may ease if the conflict comes to an end. They also expect supply chains to restart, although likely at lower capacity levels. However, if the conflict lasts longer, experts believe crude oil could rise to $145 per barrel. HFM - Crude Oil 1-Hour Chart A key development for Crude Oil will be a possible 45-day ceasefire, which is currently being discussed. NASDAQ - Employment Data Boosts Investor Sentiment The stock market is trading relatively well in comparison to the previous week due to a possible 45-day ceasefire and the latest US employment data. Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are currently believed to be in Pakistan negotiating a 45-day ceasefire with Iran. According to reports, a ceasefire is possible, but some sticking points remain as Iran refuses to agree on certain key points. Overnight, President Trump said on his live network that if Iran does not agree to the deal, the US will attack the country's power plants. A deal or lack of one in the upcoming days is likely to create a lot of volatility for the NASDAQ and global stocks. In addition to this, the latest employment data did not create volatility on Friday due to limited trading but is supporting the index this morning. The Non-Farm Employment Change rose by 178,000, more than double the previous projections. The US Unemployment Rate also fell from 4.4% to 4.3%. Key Takeaways: Oil rises for a second week, nearing $112, as Iran attacks energy infrastructure in Abu Dhabi and Kuwait. Supply risks grow as OPEC warns capacity recovery may take over two years post-conflict. Partial relief is seen as Iraq shipments resume via the Strait of Hormuz, but overall supply remains constrained. Oil outlook depends on conflict duration: ~$120 if short-term, up to $145 if prolonged. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 2nd April 2026. Stock Market Today: Futures Fall as Iran Tensions Lift Oil Above $100. Global markets turned cautious on Thursday, with US equity futures moving lower as uncertainty surrounding the ongoing conflict between the US and Iran persists. Comments from Donald Trump indicated that military operations are not yet complete, reducing expectations for a near-term resolution and keeping investors on the defensive. At the time of writing, S&P 500 futures are down approximately 1.3%, while Nasdaq 100 futures are underperforming with losses near 1.6%. Dow Jones futures are also trading lower, reflecting a broader pullback in risk appetite as the week draws to a close. Energy Markets Remain the Key Driver Oil continues to play a central role in shaping market direction. Both Brent Crude Oil and West Texas Intermediate have moved back above the $100 level, reversing earlier declines as supply concerns resurface. Since the escalation of the conflict in late February, oil prices have risen significantly, with volatility driven largely by uncertainty around supply routes. In particular, the Strait of Hormuz remains a critical focal point for traders, given its importance in global energy transportation. Any disruption or confirmation of reopening, could lead to sharp price reactions across energy markets and beyond. From Oil Shock to Energy Shock The current environment is increasingly being viewed as a broader energy shock rather than a traditional oil-driven event, according to Bank of America. This reflects the evolving structure of the global economy, which is now more sensitive to disruptions across the wider energy complex. Rather than focusing solely on crude, markets are reacting to pressures across natural gas, supply chains, and industrial inputs. This has important implications for inflation and growth expectations, which are now moving in opposite directions. US growth is projected to slow to 2.3% in 2026 Inflation is expected to rise to 3.6% Global growth forecasts have been revised lower Inflation projections have been revised higher This combination points to a mild stagflationary backdrop, which typically creates a more challenging environment for equities and risk assets. Global Market Reaction: Signs of Rotation Equity markets are beginning to show early signs of rotation, particularly within the technology sector. High-growth names, including AI leaders such as Nvidia, are losing momentum after an extended period of strong performance. This shift is largely driven by macro factors. As inflation expectations remain elevated, bond yields tend to stay higher, which in turn puts pressure on growth valuations. As a result, investors are gradually adjusting their positioning, with some rotation towards more defensive sectors becoming evident. While this does not necessarily signal a long-term trend reversal, it highlights a change in short-term market leadership that traders should monitor closely. The more cautious tone is reflected across global markets. Asian equities have moved lower, with some indices posting notable declines following the latest geopolitical developments. At the same time, energy prices have resumed their upward trajectory, while European natural gas prices have also edged higher. Interestingly, gold prices have declined despite ongoing geopolitical tensions. This suggests that recent moves may be driven more by positioning adjustments and profit-taking rather than a traditional flight to safety. Key Events Ahead With markets heading into the Good Friday closure, focus now shifts to upcoming US economic data, which could provide further direction. Key releases to monitor include: Weekly jobless claims The Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report These indicators will be closely watched for signals on the strength of the labour market and the broader economic outlook, particularly in the context of rising energy prices. Conclusion Markets remain highly sensitive to geopolitical developments, with energy prices acting as the primary transmission channel into broader asset classes. The lack of clarity around the Iran conflict continues to limit risk appetite and reinforce a more cautious trading environment. In the near term, traders should expect: Continued headline-driven volatility Strong correlation between oil and equity markets Ongoing pressure on risk sentiment if tensions persist Maintaining flexibility and disciplined risk management remains essential as markets navigate this complex backdrop. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 1st April 2026. What Will Determine If Gold Rebounds? On the last day of the month, Gold witnesses its strongest gains within the month of March. The commodity rose in value by 3.45% and also continues to rise further during this morning’s Asian session. If the price of Gold continues to rise today, the asset will complete its fourth day of consecutive increases. The reason for Gold’s bullish price movement is largely due to three factors. The Israeli Prime Minister on Tuesday, told journalists that half of the country’s aims have been achieved, meaning that the conflict could last for some time. This is driving the price of Gold higher. However, another key development triggering demand for Gold is bond yields and interest rates. How Are Interest Rates & Bonds Supporting A Gold Rebound? One reason investors preferred the US Dollar over Gold as a safe-haven asset was bonds. Rising bond yields made the Dollar more attractive, especially as investors viewed gold as extremely expensive. Yields climbed to their highest level in eight months. However, bond yields have fallen for four consecutive days and, at the same time analysts are expecting inflation to increase. With bond yields falling and inflation increasing, the market is likely to witness a negative real bond yield. As a result, the US Dollar becomes less attractive as a hedge against inflation and investors turn to Gold. Gold has been used as a hedge against inflation on multiple occasions since the 1970s and most recently during the 2022 inflation crisis. The US inflation data, due on April 10th, will be key for gold. It may confirm whether bond yields will turn negative. Currently, analysts expect inflation to rise from 2.4% to 4.0%. However, some Wall Street reports suggest it could reach 4.2%. Nevertheless, a word of caution for market participants. Market volatility and trends will also largely depend on the Federal Reserve. Generally, higher inflation is traditionally known to support Gold, however, if the Federal Reserve is quick to react and become significantly hawkish, the Dollar becomes more attractive and bond yields will rise. As a result, Gold may come under pressure. Gold - Technical Analysis HFM - XAUUSD 4-Hour Chart Gold prices had fallen 22% throughout the crisis, and the rebound of the past few days measured a 50% correction. For this reason, based on price action theories, the asset is still at risk of this price movement being a strong retracement before declining again. However, this will fade if the price rises to $4,800, indicating a potential bullish trend in the long term. In the short term, the price of Gold is trading above the most important moving averages and above the day’s VWAP. The asset is also forming clear higher highs and lows while the US Dollar is the day’s worst-performing currency. For this reason, momentum analysis is pointing towards Gold continuing to rise in value. The US Dollar A key element for Gold will be the US Dollar, real bond yields and the Federal Reserve’s reaction. However, for the US Dollar in the short term investors will be monitoring today’s ADP NFP Change, Retail Sales figure and ISM Purchasing Managers’ Index. If these figures come in above expectations, the US Dollar could rise in value. This is because the Fed may feel more confident about raising interest rates in the short term to tackle inflation. Economists are advising that the possibility of the Federal Reserve slightly raising rates is feasible, but is only likely to be possible for a short period. Investors remain focused on the latest remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Speaking at Harvard University, Powell said inflation expectations remain stable despite rising energy prices. As a result, the Fed does not currently plan to adjust borrowing costs, as he believes interest rate changes affect the economy with a delay. In his view, tightening monetary policy now would do little to offset the inflationary effects of the US-Iran confrontation. However, some experts believe Powell’s optimism may be overstated, particularly as he is expected to step down in May. Over the past month, US gasoline prices have climbed 30% to $4.0 per gallon, while diesel has risen 40.0% to $5.0 per gallon, marking the highest levels seen since the start of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022. Nonetheless, key releases this week for the US Dollar will be today’s three releases as well as Friday’s NFP employment data. Key Takeaways: Gold surged 3.45% at month-end and is on track for a fourth consecutive day of gains. Falling bond yields and rising inflation expectations are driving demand, increasing the likelihood of negative real yields. The April 10 US CPI release is critical, with forecasts pointing to a sharp rise towards 4.0%-4.2%. Despite bullish momentum, a more hawkish Federal Reserve could strengthen the US Dollar and pressure gold prices. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 31st March 2026. Oil Volatility, Gold Rally, and Geopolitical Risks Dominate Sentiment. Global financial markets remain highly sensitive to geopolitical headlines as escalating tensions in the Middle East continue to disrupt energy flows and shape investor sentiment. From surging oil prices to shifting expectations around interest rates, today’s market environment is being driven by a complex mix of supply shocks, central bank signals, and risk appetite fluctuations. Oil Prices Surge Amid Supply Disruptions Crude oil markets remain at the center of attention, with Brent Crude Oil climbing above $115 per barrel before stabilizing near $113. The move comes as escalating conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran threatens critical supply routes. The Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for global oil transportation, is operating at severely reduced capacity. Estimates suggest that: Around 100 million barrels per week are currently unable to pass through the strait Monthly disruptions could reach 400 million barrels If these constraints persist for the next 6–8 weeks, analysts warn oil could spike toward $150–$200 per barrel, driven by the physical imbalance between supply and demand rather than political rhetoric. Recent developments, including drone strikes on oil tankers near Dubai and continued missile activity across the Gulf region, underscore the fragility of energy infrastructure and the growing risk premium embedded in oil prices. Gold Gains on Fed Signals and Safe-Haven Demand At the same time, Gold has extended its upward momentum, briefly jumping over 2% before stabilizing near $4,560 per ounce. The rally is being supported by two key factors: 1. Federal Reserve Signals Comments from Jerome Powell suggested that interest rates are currently in a “wait-and-see” phase, easing fears of aggressive tightening despite rising oil-driven inflation. Treasury yields declined Rate hike expectations softened The opportunity cost of holding gold decreased 2. Geopolitical Uncertainty Safe-haven demand remains strong as investors react to: Ongoing conflict in the Middle East Uncertainty over US military strategy Risks of further escalation impacting global trade routes However, despite the recent bounce, gold still faces structural pressure as markets are not fully pricing in an economic slowdown, limiting the upside unless recession risks intensify. Equity Markets Show Mixed Performance Equity markets are struggling to find direction amid conflicting signals: US futures edged higher, reflecting cautious optimism European stocks opened flat as investors digest geopolitical developments Asian markets declined sharply, led by losses in South Korea The divergence highlights the current environment where headline-driven trading dominates, with investors reacting quickly to geopolitical updates rather than macroeconomic fundamentals. Political Developments Add Complexity Recent statements from Donald Trump indicate a potential willingness to end the conflict with Iran, even if the Strait of Hormuz remains partially closed. This suggests possible de-escalation scenarios, though risks remain elevated. Meanwhile, Benjamin Netanyahu stated that military operations are “beyond the halfway point” in terms of objectives, but without a defined timeline, reinforcing uncertainty around the duration of the conflict. At the same time, threats of further strikes on Iranian infrastructure, including oil and desalination facilities, continue to keep markets on edge. Key Takeaways for Traders Oil remains fundamentally driven: Supply disruptions, not political commentary, are dictating price direction Gold is balancing forces: Supported by lower yields and risk aversion, but capped by stable economic expectations Markets are headline-sensitive: Short-term volatility will likely persist as geopolitical developments unfold Risk management is critical: Rapid shifts in sentiment can trigger sharp moves across commodities, currencies, and equities Market Outlook Looking ahead, traders should closely monitor: Developments around the Strait of Hormuz and global oil flows Any concrete progress in US-Iran negotiations Central bank communication, particularly from the Federal Reserve Broader risk sentiment across equity and bond markets The current environment reinforces a key principle: markets are being driven less by forecasts and more by real-time geopolitical developments and physical supply constraints. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.