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Date: 21st April 2026. S&P 500 Surge: What Could Break or Make the Rally Next? The S&P 500 continues to finish higher, driven by growing investor confidence that the US–Iran conflict will not intensify. In the span of just three weeks, the index has reversed a 10% stock market crash and climbed back to record highs. Currently, the S&P 500 is trading at +3.65% for 2026. The question now is whether three major upcoming events can keep that momentum intact. Kevin Warsh Hearing Kevin Warsh is the US President’s nominee to take over the Federal Reserve Chairmanship. However, in order for Mr Warsh to be appointed, he must first be approved by the Senate. The Senate hearing will take place this afternoon, where Mr Warsh will likely be questioned on the Fed’s independence, interest rates, and the current investigation into the building renovation of the Federal Reserve. Questions may also include his wealth, which amounts to almost $200 million. So far, Mr Warsh has already made it clear in the past few days that he believes the Federal Reserve must remain fully independent. Even though this was not the primary driver, it has supported stocks in the past few days. Investors will largely be focusing on Kevin Warsh’s view on interest rates. In the past, the individual has been known to be an inflation hawk and opposed to quantitative easing. If investors feel he would bring a hawkish view to the Fed, stocks may come under pressure. Whereas, if the individual seems to follow the President’s hawkish stance, stocks potentially will rise. Meanwhile, US Fed Board member Christopher Waller stated that a quick resolution to the US-Iran conflict would allow officials to move towards interest rate cuts at the end of the year. However, otherwise, high inflation could become entrenched across a wide range of goods and services, and real economic activity and employment could begin to decline. According to the Chicago exchange, under the current conditions, an interest rate cut is not likely until March 2027. Earnings Season Earnings season is likely to impact the S&P 500 more than the NASDAQ and the Dow Jones. Currently, investors seem to be pricing in positive results from the upcoming earnings data. If the companies provide positive earnings per share, revenue, and remain optimistic about demand, the stock is likely to obtain further support. This week, investors will be mainly focusing on the following reports: Tesla, the 8th most influential company in the index, reports tomorrow evening. Lam Research, the 31st most influential company in the index, reports tomorrow evening. Philip Morris, the 42nd most influential company in the index, reports tomorrow before the market opens. IBM, the 43rd most influential company in the index, reports tomorrow evening. Intel, the 30th most influential company in the index, reports Thursday evening. American Express, the 47th most influential company in the index, reports Thursday before the market opens. Procter & Gamble, the 29th most influential company in the index, reports Friday. JPMorgan raised its S&P 500 year-end target to 7,600, driven by strong AI-led earnings growth, while warning that geopolitical risks could still cause short-term volatility. HFM - S&P 500 Daily Chart US-Iran Deadline Investors remain focused on the Middle East. Late last week, reports said Tehran may halt its nuclear programme. It could also transfer enriched uranium to third countries. In return, it seeks access to frozen assets and security guarantees. On Friday, Iran allowed partial ship passage through the Strait of Hormuz. This boosted market optimism and supported alternatives to the Dollar. However, the US refused to unblock Iranian ports and seized a container ship. Iran then cancelled new talks scheduled today in Islamabad. Yesterday, Donald Trump warned Iran again to accept US peace terms. He said its transport and energy infrastructure could be destroyed if it refuses. Experts now see rising risks of renewed hostilities. A closure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is also possible. This could push hydrocarbon prices higher. So far, investors are not showing clear risk-off sentiment. Some speculate Iran may still attend negotiations. Trump told journalists he is unlikely to extend the deadline. He said Iran must show real signs of accepting US terms. If tensions ease and oil stays below key levels, the S&P 500 may remain above $7,000. Key Takeaways: S&P 500 momentum remains strong, rebounding from a 10% drop to record highs in just three weeks. Kevin Warsh’s Senate hearing is a key risk, with his stance on interest rates likely to influence market direction. Earnings season is critical, with major companies reporting and positive results already priced into the market. Geopolitical tensions remain a wildcard, as US–Iran developments could impact oil prices and overall sentiment. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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