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Date: 19th August 2025. German Economy Between Tariffs and Investment Boost. Economic Contraction in the Second Quarter The German economy is once again showing signs of strain, with activity contracting in the second quarter of 2025. Revised production figures revealed deeper weakness than initially reported, underlining the persistent struggles of Germany’s flagship manufacturing sector. The newly signed trade agreement with the United States is expected to bring additional headwinds, especially for automakers, while Berlin’s recently announced investment boost in infrastructure and defence will take time to filter through into actual production growth. At the same time, the surge in spending across the European Union may force the European Central Bank (ECB) to rethink its monetary policy sooner than expected. Manufacturing Sector Under Pressure For much of the past year, Germany’s growth figures have been flattered by businesses front-running anticipated U.S. tariffs. While GDP expanded during the last quarter of 2024 and the first quarter of 2025, much of that momentum came from exporters rushing orders ahead of tariff deadlines. As many analysts warned, this left a demand gap that became visible in the second quarter, when the economy contracted by 0.1% quarter-on-quarter. To make matters worse, first-quarter growth was revised lower to 0.3% from the previously reported 0.4%, confirming that overall momentum in the first half of the year was weaker than thought. The industrial sector remains the hardest hit. Preliminary data point to a sharp contraction, with production plunging 1.9% in June. Adding to the gloom, May’s figures were revised drastically lower to just 0.1% growth from an initial 1.2%. This leaves industrial activity at its weakest level since May 2020. Much of the revision came from updated reports in the automobile sector, where uncertainty over tariff regimes has clouded output and investment decisions. Tariffs Challenge German Automakers It is worth noting that seasonal factors, such as Easter falling later in the quarter, may have slightly distorted the numbers. However, the broader trend is clear: Germany’s manufacturing sector continues to struggle. Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) readings confirm the weakness, and ongoing uncertainty over future trade relations with the U.S. has weighed heavily on sentiment. While some clarity has emerged since the deal was signed, the reality is that new tariffs will curb exports, particularly in the critical auto industry, while also disrupting supply chains that are central to German manufacturing. German automakers, including BMW and Mercedes, had hoped for exemptions given their extensive U.S. investments. Reports even suggested that industry representatives travelled to Washington to propose a reciprocal arrangement: tariff-free imports of EU-made cars in exchange for every U.S.-produced vehicle shipped to Europe. Yet, such proposals failed to gain traction, and manufacturers are now facing the reality of a 15% tariff on U.S. imports of German goods. Behind the scenes, lobbying efforts are expected to continue, but for now, automakers must prepare for a more challenging trade environment. Berlin’s Investment Boost in Infrastructure and Defence Against this backdrop, Berlin’s new government has attempted to counteract the drag with an ambitious fiscal program. Having taken office in March, the administration moved swiftly to abandon strict debt limits and pledge a sweeping investment boost, with a particular focus on defence and infrastructure. These efforts build on the rearmament drive that began under the previous government in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but have now accelerated with additional funds. The results are already visible in the orders data, although volatility remains high due to the presence of large-ticket defence and infrastructure contracts. In June, orders fell by 1.0% month-on-month, following a 0.8% decline in May. Yet, thanks to large-scale contracts, overall orders rose by 3.1% in the second quarter, offering some hope for stronger growth later this year. Stripping out these large orders, however, paints a more modest picture, with demand rising just 0.1% quarter-on-quarter. This suggests that any positive impact on GDP may not be immediate. Orders Data Show Mixed Signals A closer look at orders data reveals the deep impact of tariffs and shifting trade relations. Orders from abroad fell by 3.0% month-on-month in June, driven by a sharp 7.8% plunge in demand from non-Eurozone countries. By contrast, orders from within the Eurozone rose 5.2%, while domestic demand increased by 2.2%. The divergence underscores Germany’s growing dependence on European and local demand to cushion against the decline in U.S.-linked trade. Fiscal Expansion and ECB Policy Outlook The central question now is whether government spending can compensate for the tariff shock. If fiscal stimulus is supported by structural reforms and measures to encourage private investment, it could set the stage for a recovery. However, if higher public spending is not matched by efficiency gains and red-tape reduction, Germany’s fiscal expansion risks backfiring. Bond markets are already signalling concern, with the 30-year German yield climbing to its highest level since 2011. For the ECB, the shifting policy landscape complicates the outlook. The combination of higher German yields, broader EU defence spending, and resilient inflation pressures could force policymakers to halt the easing cycle earlier than planned. While another rate cut in December remains on the table, markets are increasingly speculating that the ECB may be compelled to raise rates again in the second half of 2025. Germany at a Crossroads In short, Germany finds itself at a crossroads. Tariffs and global trade shifts are undermining its traditional export model, while domestic investment is only just beginning to gain traction. Whether the government’s spending spree can offset external headwinds remains uncertain, but the stakes are high—not just for Germany, but for the entire Eurozone economy. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. 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