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GBPUSD Trading Strategy and Chart Outlook The GBP/USD currency pair—often referred to by its nickname "Cable"—represents the exchange rate between the British pound and the US dollar. As one of the most heavily traded pairs in the forex market, GBP-USD is highly sensitive to macroeconomic indicators and central bank commentary from both the UK and the US, making it a popular choice among traders for both fundamental and technical analysis strategies. Today, the GBP USD pair is expected to experience heightened volatility as multiple high-impact USD and GBP events take place. On the US side, speeches by key Federal Reserve officials, including John Williams and Alberto Musalem, will be closely monitored for hawkish or dovish signals that could hint at future monetary tightening. Additionally, delayed inflation data (CPI and Core CPI) and housing reports that were skipped due to the government shutdown are scheduled for release, likely creating market ripples. The anticipated data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Census Bureau could reinforce or contradict the Fed's rate outlook. Simultaneously, the UK retail sector will be under the spotlight with the BRC Retail Sales report, and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey is scheduled to speak, offering potential forward guidance on UK interest rate policy. Collectively, these events introduce considerable short-term uncertainty, especially if the tone from either central bank diverges. Image Chart Notes: • Chart time-zone is UTC (+02:00) • Candles’ time-frame is 4h. On the 4-hour chart, GBP to USD has been in a clear bullish trend over the past two months, trading within an ascending parallel channel. After a corrective move toward the lower boundary of this channel near 1.33600, price action has bounced and is currently consolidating between the 1.34500 and 1.35000 key resistance zone. The GBPUSD price has returned toward the midline of the channel, indicating potential momentum recovery. The Ichimoku Cloud analysis shows that although the cloud has turned red—signaling short-term bearish pressure—the price remains above the cloud, keeping the broader uptrend technically intact. However, the leading span B being above span A and the baseline sitting above the last two candles while the conversion line is below the current GBPnewsUSD price, suggests mixed momentum and potential consolidation. The Williams %R oscillator reads -21.01, nearing overbought territory, which could signal a short-term pullback or hesitation before any breakout. Meanwhile, the MACD histogram is showing a slight bullish crossover, with the MACD line at 0.00065 and slowly climbing above the signal line. Overall, while the short-term momentum is cautious, the medium-term trend remains bullish unless the price breaks below the 1.34000 support level. •DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes. Capitalcore

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Date:12th January 2026. Gold Hits All-Time Highs as the Fed Faces Political Pressure. Gold rises to new all-time highs as US prosecutors opened a criminal investigation into Jerome Powell over the weekend. In addition, the latest NFP figures continue to support more interest rate cuts in 2026, also supporting Gold prices. Analysts continue to point towards multiple reasons why institutions and investors are increasing Gold’s exposure levels. These include the threat to the Federal Reserve’s independence, employment data, and even US-EU tensions over Greenland. However, at what point is Gold too expensive? HFM - Gold Daily Chart Why Is the Federal Reserve Prompting Higher Gold Demand? The tensions between the Federal Reserve and the Trump administration have been well documented. The US government believes the Federal Reserve is not cutting interest rates at the pace it should be. The Federal Funds Rate currently stands at 3.75%, which is 1.75% lower than the highs from 2024. That said, interest rates are still considerably higher than those seen over the past decade. According to the Federal Reserve, they have been unable to cut at a faster pace due to tariffs creating uncertainties. More specifically, members of the Federal Open Market Committee had previously projected inflation would rise considerably due to tariffs. These projections have yet to materialise, providing Trump with additional grounds to criticize the Federal Reserve. Tensions have been on the rise over the past few days as US prosecutors started a criminal investigation into the head of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell. The investigation is looking at whether Mr Powell misled Congress about the scope and cost of a major $2.5 billion renovation of the Federal Reserve’s Washington office. President Trump and members of the administration have advised the cost is significantly higher than what the Chairman had disclosed. Particularly, Trump accused the Fed of adding ‘luxurious’ features to the renovation. However, Fed officials told journalists that these were later removed. The question is whether Powell gave misleading or false testimony to Congress about the renovation. According to Jerome Powell, the investigation is political pressure to force the Federal Reserve to cut rates. He said it is also meant as personal retaliation for not cutting rates so far. Powell told journalists the move raises concerns about the Fed’s independence. The risk to Federal Reserve independence is largely the development pushing Gold higher. NFP - Mixed Employment Data The NFP data from Friday had both positive and negative factors in the release. The Unemployment Rate fell back to 4.4%, lower than previous projections. However, the NFP Employment Change was only 50,000, lower than expectations. The employment data for December indicates the sector remains resilient, but risks do remain. According to analysts, the figures indicate the need for interest rate cuts but are not weak enough to significantly pressure the Federal Reserve. The chances of a Federal Reserve rate cut still remain low, a 5% possibility. However, investors will monitor if this changes after tomorrow's CPI figures. Gold (XAUUSD) - Technical Analysis As Gold has been increasing for six consecutive months, most indicators, particularly momentum indicators, point towards the bullish trend continuing. The question is whether the price is trading at an overpriced level. Certain timeframes do point towards the price potentially being overbought. For example, on the 4-hour timeframe, the price is trading at an overbought level on the RSI. In addition to this, on the daily timeframe, the price is forming a divergence pattern, which also signals a potential pullback. Momentum and trend-based indicators continue to point upward, and the price stays close to its average, suggesting investors do not overvalue it. In addition, fundamental factors continue to support Gold’s price. HFM - Gold 5-Minute Chart Certain Wall Street banks are also supporting the bullish trend maintaining momentum this year. Goldman Sachs has given a target price of $4,900. Bank of America and JP Morgan have given a target of $5,000. However, in the short-term, for bullish signals to be valid, the price must remain above $4,542.75, according to the 200-bar MA. Key Takeaways: Gold hit new all-time highs as US prosecutors launched a criminal investigation into Jerome Powell. Mixed NFP employment data supports the possibility of more Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026. Investors increase Gold exposure due to Fed independence risks, employment trends, and US-EU geopolitical tensions. Technical indicators show Gold’s bullish momentum continues, though some timeframes signal potential overbought conditions. Major banks forecast Gold at $4,900-$5,000, with key support at $4,542.75 maintaining short-term bullish signals. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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