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Paid! :) ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TRON amount: +152.005 TRX Hash: a5c515eed5a25dde0ae0b37f38b237d37e8307bdca55f895930c07f035cbbe5f Date: 2025-08-01 00:21:57 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

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Date: 1st August 2025. Bank of England Rate Cut in Focus: Sterling Slips as Fed Holds Steady. The Bank of England (BoE) is widely expected to cut interest rates at its upcoming meeting on August 7, bringing the Bank Rate down from 4.25% to 4.00%. This decision would mark a continuation of the central bank’s cautious and gradual monetary easing cycle as the UK grapples with persistent inflation and sluggish economic growth. Although some Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members had already called for a cut during the last meeting, the majority opted to wait, citing the need for a more measured approach. However, with inflation moderating and economic headwinds building, the conditions now appear more favourable for a rate reduction. BoE Monetary Policy Outlook: Gradual Easing Ahead BoE Governor Andrew Bailey is expected to reinforce the central bank’s steady approach to rate adjustments. So far in 2025, the BoE has acted every three months, a pattern likely to continue through the end of the year. Despite projections that headline inflation will rise to 3.7% by September, mainly due to energy base effects and regulated prices, the Bank anticipates that consumer price inflation (CPI) will fall back toward the 2% target in the medium term. A sluggish UK growth backdrop supports further easing, with an additional cut forecast in November 2025, and a terminal rate of 3.50% expected by February 2026. Still, uncertainties remain. The inflation and rate path will depend heavily on global economic developments, fiscal policy, and evolving UK–US trade dynamics. UK–US Trade Deal and Updated Growth Projections The upcoming BoE meeting will also include an updated Monetary Policy Report and revised economic forecasts. Investors will watch closely for how the UK’s new trade agreement with the United States affects the central bank’s growth outlook. While the impact of the 10% baseline tariffs may be limited in isolation, broader effects on global supply chains could influence inflation. Some economists argue that tariffs may reduce inflation if exporters cut prices to redirect goods away from the US, but significant supply chain disruptions could have the opposite effect. UK PMI Weakness Reflects Fragile Economic Sentiment Recent economic data points to weak momentum in the UK economy. The S&P Global flash PMI for July showed a drop in the Composite Output Index to 51.0, a two-month low. Although the manufacturing sector improved slightly, it remained in contraction territory, while the services PMI fell from 52.8 in June to 51.2, still in expansion, but signalling a slowdown. This decline in business activity suggests that growth is likely to remain soft, with businesses citing reduced new work and persistent caution following the fiscal tightening introduced in April. Labour Market and Wage Trends in the Spotlight The UK labour market remains a key variable for the BoE. Survey data from the services sector highlighted strong wage inflation, with businesses attempting to pass on the cost of increased National Insurance contributions and the higher minimum wage. These cost pressures have kept consumer prices elevated, even as demand cools. At the same time, businesses have started to shed staff, indicating that labour market slack may be building faster than previously anticipated. If this trend continues, it could help curb wage growth, offering additional disinflationary pressure. Household Savings Surge Underscores Consumer Caution Another factor reinforcing the case for further easing is the increase in household savings. Data from June revealed a sharp rise in deposits with banks and building societies, which climbed by £7.8 billion, compared to £4.3 billion in May, and significantly above the six-month average. Much of this increase was allocated to Individual Savings Accounts (ISAs), possibly due to concerns about potential changes in government policy on deposit allowances. The shift toward saving rather than spending suggests that consumers remain cautious, posing a risk to domestic demand and justifying further monetary stimulus. BoE Quantitative Tightening Policy Under Scrutiny In addition to interest rate decisions, the BoE's approach to quantitative tightening (QT) remains in focus. Unlike its global peers, the BoE has been actively selling assets in the open market, contributing to a rise in long-term yields and increasing government borrowing costs. While some policymakers have pushed for an end to active QT, most analysts expect the BoE to reduce the annual pace of asset sales from £100 billion to £75 billion in 2026. There are signs of tightening liquidity as well, with usage of the BoE’s long-term repo facility nearing record highs. The Bank’s new framework, which allows markets to bid for reserves, has created more uncertainty around reserve scarcity as the balance sheet contracts. Although no major announcement is expected on QT during the August meeting, Governor Bailey may offer early signals ahead of the final decision in September. GBPUSD Slips Amid Fed Hold and Strong US Data The British Pound weakened against the US Dollar on Thursday, as GBPUSD fell to 1.3214, down from an intraday high of 1.3281. This move followed the Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged, with two dissenters favouring a cut. Despite speculation surrounding future easing, fueled in part by former President Trump’s comments, Fed Chair Jerome Powell provided no clear forward guidance, stating that decisions will be taken meeting-by-meeting. The US Dollar gained further support from strong economic data. Initial Jobless Claims came in at 218,000, lower than the 224,000 estimate, confirming continued strength in the labour market. Inflation data also surprised to the upside, with Core PCE rising to 2.8% YoY in June and Headline PCE climbing to 2.6%, both above forecasts. This divergence in monetary policy between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England has placed additional downward pressure on GBPUSD. While markets see a 65% chance of the Fed holding steady in September, expectations for a BoE cut next week stand at 80%. The growing gap in policy stance has tilted the currency pair into bearish territory. GBPUSD Technical Analysis: Bearish Bias Builds Technically, GBPUSD has broken below its 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.3334, breaching key psychological support at 1.3300. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has also shifted into bearish territory, reinforcing downside momentum. If the pair falls decisively below 1.3200, the next support level is found at 1.3100, with the 200-day SMA at 1.2977 offering further downside targets. On the upside, only a close above 1.3250 would signal a potential recovery toward the 1.3300 zone. Conclusion: All Eyes on August 7 BoE Meeting As the Bank of England prepares to cut rates, the combination of softening growth, persistent cost pressures, and cautious consumers strengthens the case for further easing. At the same time, the Fed’s steady stance, backed by robust US data, continues to drive GBPUSD lower as monetary policy divergence takes centre stage. Markets will closely monitor the BoE’s tone, the updated forecasts, and any hints regarding quantitative tightening adjustments. With volatility likely to remain high, traders should remain alert to shifts in inflation expectations, labour market dynamics, and central bank messaging. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.