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Date: 28th July 2025. Markets Rally as US-EU Tariff Deal Calms Trade War Fears. Financial markets and policymakers are cautiously optimistic that the feared economic fallout from Liberation Day may not fully materialise. Expectations of weak growth and surging inflation have started to ease, while optimism is building that trade tensions may be less damaging than anticipated. However, uncertainty remains elevated, with the August 1 tariff deadline fast approaching. Although we’re not out of the woods yet, recent developments suggest the path forward could be less volatile. The range of potential tariff outcomes has narrowed, and active trade negotiations are gradually clearing the fog. Still, the global economy continues to navigate a ‘wait-and-see’ landscape, and this week’s calendar is packed with central bank meetings, critical data releases, earnings reports, and bond supply that will shape investor sentiment. US-EU Trade Agreement: A Fragile Truce Over the weekend, the United States and the European Union struck a much-anticipated trade deal, agreeing to implement a 15% levy on a wide range of European exports, including autos. The outcome aligns closely with previous warnings from Brussels, offering a sense of relief that the standoff did not escalate further. The EU had prepared countermeasures that may have targeted US services—an area where the US runs a strong surplus with the bloc—but those plans came too late to influence the negotiations. Critics argue that Brussels should have taken a firmer approach earlier in the process. However, in the end, EU officials prioritised swift resolution and market stability, which now appears to have been the right call—equity markets surged to four-month highs following the announcement. As part of the agreement, the EU also pledged to purchase $750 billion in US energy products—a bold commitment considering the region’s recent pivot away from Russian gas toward US LNG. The bloc also committed to buying more US military equipment, in line with recent arms support agreements for Ukraine and NATO cooperation. Bloomberg Economics estimates that the new deal prevents the average effective US tariff rate from rising to 18%, keeping it at a more manageable 16%. Market Reaction: Risk Appetite Improves Equity markets responded positively to the news. The Euro Stoxx 50 posted a 0.6% gain, while the DAX lagged slightly but still closed higher. Southern European indices like the MIB and IBEX led the region’s rally. US futures also pointed higher, buoyed by the improved trade outlook. In Asia, Chinese stocks ended the day in the green, reflecting hopes that Washington and Beijing will extend their current trade truce. The Nikkei, however, slipped more than 1%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 edged down by 0.1%. In bond markets, eurozone yields declined as investors digested cautious commentary from ECB officials, while US Treasury yields ticked higher, with the 10-year rate approaching 4.40%. FX Markets: Dollar Gains on Trade Optimism Currency markets reflected the surge in risk appetite and the recalibration of rate expectations. The US dollar gained 0.6% intraday, with the DXY index trading near 98.26. The euro weakened against the greenback, dropping 0.8% to 1.166, a move likely welcomed by European exporters and policymakers, as a softer currency helps offset some of the tariff impact. Sterling outperformed earlier in the session but later pulled back, with GBPUSD correcting to 1.34. Meanwhile, the dollar gained ground against the franc and yen, rising 0.8% versus the Swiss franc and 0.5% against the yen, bringing USDJPY to 148.39. Commodities: Oil Climbs, Gold Eases Oil prices moved higher in tandem with stocks, as the trade agreement boosted global demand expectations. WTI rose 1.3% to $66.01 per barrel, while Brent gained 1.2% to $69.28. Investors now await further developments in US-China talks scheduled later today, with hopes that both sides will agree to extend their current truce. Gold prices were largely steady after a pre-weekend dip driven by stronger dollar sentiment and fading rate-cut bets. With the tariff deal confirmed and markets adjusting to tighter policy guidance, gold slipped modestly to $3,336.21 per ounce. Silver and copper also posted minor declines, down 0.15% and 0.28%, respectively. Copper prices, however, remain elevated ahead of a planned 50% tariff on US copper imports, set to take effect August 1. ECB Stays on Hold, Keeps Options Open The European Central Bank kept interest rates steady, with President Lagarde signalling that policymakers will retain flexibility ahead of the September meeting. While inflation fears have receded slightly, Lagarde made it clear that rate cuts are not guaranteed and that future decisions will depend heavily on incoming economic data and geopolitical developments. Her message was echoed by ECB Governing Council member Peter Kazimir, who warned against assuming a rate cut is imminent. He emphasised that only clear signs of labour market weakness would justify further easing. While recent inflation data is reassuring, Kazimir stressed the importance of vigilance, particularly in light of potential supply chain disruptions that could reignite price pressures. Outlook: Trade Relief Is Welcome, But Uncertainty Persists The US-EU trade agreement has provided temporary relief to markets, reducing tariff risks and boosting investor sentiment. Yet the broader picture remains uncertain. The August 1 deadline still looms, geopolitical tensions persist, and monetary policy paths are far from settled. As the global economy enters a critical phase, traders and investors will continue to monitor developments in trade policy, central bank decisions, and macroeconomic data. For now, markets are breathing a little easier—but the long-term trajectory is still unfolding. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Paid us 8.8 USDT (Jul-28-2025 01:44:47 PM UTC) https://bscscan.com/tx/0xa2734a386d1712bbe124c3181215fe94c248fb0884f496f95b911d9f61f6e164
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USDT-TRC20: c45bd14d173b204efdce3f6b96220b15bb9a6b1a6e4b1510540ee0c818950385 2025-07-28 09:41:15 (UTC) 7 Tether USD
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https://bscscan.com/tx/0xf4dcccaff2f42a25a8e344cbceee412f62e8ed94c76537d99a2a38ec350573ac Jul-27-2025 09:01:04 PM UTC 3 BSC-USD
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USDT-BEP20: 0x93b4a848a84057845cf6960c8a40b5640ca379bdfbf812164b54228353ffe8ed Jul-27-2025 07:37:36 PM UTC 9 BSC-USD
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