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Date: 26th September 2025. Strong Data and Tariffs Complicate Fed Rate-Cut Decision. Is good news bad news? US economic data from Thursday was surprisingly much higher than previous projections. The data largely relates to economic growth, economic activity as well as the employment sector. Even though good news can support sentiment, it can also make the Federal Open Market Committee consider less frequent cuts. As a result, the stock market declines close to a 10-day low. The SNP500, which is a good representation of the whole US stock market, declined for a 3rd consecutive day. Even the Dow Jones, which includes higher exposure to defensive stocks, falls 2.00% from its recent highs. Even if the positive economic data did not raise concerns about fewer rate adjustments, the new tariffs announced by President Trump last night have nonetheless prompted a clear shift toward a ‘risk-off’ sentiment. SNP500 (USA500) 30-Minute Chart Positive News Triggering Lower Demand For Stocks The US made public a total of 6 separate figures on Thursday afternoon. The most impactful release was the US Final Gross Domestic Product which rose from 3.3% to 3.8%. Previously economists were expecting the figure to remain unchanged. Also highly influential, the Unemployment Claims which read 218,000, the lowest since July 2025 and lower than previous projections. Economists were also expecting the Durable Goods Order to decline between 0.1% to 0.3% due to tariff uncertainties and lack of local demand. However, the Durable Goods Orders rose 2.9% indicating that economic activity and demand remains high. Lastly, Existing Home Sales and New Home Sales rose above expectations adding the investor’s sentiment. At the time of the news being made public, the SNP500 was already trading significantly lower than the day’s open price. When the news was released the price rose forming a retracement, potentially due to the news improving the outlook for the economy. However, eventually the price fell again to a new low as investors contemplated the implications for data for the Fed. Changes To The Federal Reserve’s Due to the poor employment data and lack of upward pressure on inflation in the past two months, investors are expecting slow but frequent rate cuts. Currently economists are expecting a 0.25% cut in October and a similar cut in December. According to Strategists, without these two cuts, the stock market would be trading above its intrinsic value. Much of the increased demand seen in August and September stems from expectations of rate cuts. If those projections do not materialize, a correction may be a possibility. Due to the strong economic data the possibility of a rate cut in October fell from 92% to 85% until slightly rising back to 87%. However, December’s rate cut possibility fell significantly declining from 73.3% to just above 60%. For this reason, investors will continue to monitor economic and employment data to determine if the Federal Reserve will indeed cut on two occasions. At this point, it remains the most likely scenario. More Tariffs Pressuring Stocks On Thursday evening, President Donald Trump confirmed the new tariffs which will take effect on October 1st. The new tariffs include the following: 100% on pharmaceuticals until the company is in the process of moving to the States. 25% on heavy trucks 50% on kitchen and bathroom cabinets 30% on certain furnitures The tariffs are adding to the “risk-off” sentiment which can also be seen by the rising VIX Index and Lower High-Low Index. Core PCE Price Index Today’s price movement will largely depend on the Core PCE Price Index. If the index reads higher than expected, the SNP500 can see more downward pressure, potentially to the $6,556.30 support level. However, if the figure is lower than expectations (0.2%), a correction back to $6,706.65 becomes possible. Key Takeaways: Strong US economic data beat expectations, raising concerns about fewer Federal Reserve rate cuts. US GDP rose from 3.3% to 3.8%, while unemployment claims fell to 218,000, beating forecasts. The probability of an October rate cut dropped from 92% to 85%, December odds fell sharply. Trump announced new tariffs on pharmaceuticals, trucks, furniture, and cabinets effective October 1. Rising tariffs and strong data fueled “risk-off” sentiment, pressuring equities and lifting volatility indexes. However, upcoming performance depends on today’s Core PCE Price Index. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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USDCAD chart shows bullish continuation The USD/CAD currency pair, also known as the “Loonie,” is one of the most traded forex pairs, reflecting the strength of the US Dollar against the Canadian Dollar. Traders closely monitor this pair due to its sensitivity to economic releases from both the US and Canada, particularly those tied to inflation, GDP, and central bank outlooks. From a fundamental perspective, today’s upcoming US data such as the PCE price index, personal income, and consumer spending reports will be in focus as they serve as key inflation and growth indicators for the Federal Reserve’s policy stance. A stronger-than-expected PCE reading would likely bolster the USD as it strengthens expectations for higher interest rates, while weak income or spending data could weigh on sentiment. In addition, speeches from Fed officials including Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin and Governor Michelle Bowman may provide further insight into monetary policy direction. On the Canadian side, GDP data remains a critical driver, with stronger growth supporting CAD demand. Overall, fundamentals today tilt toward higher volatility in USD-CAD, with bias leaning bullish if US data signals resilient inflation and spending trends. Image Chart Notes: • Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00) • Candles’ time-frame is 4h. On the USD/CAD H4 chart, the price has recently shown sharp bullish candles, moving in a clear ascending trend above the Ichimoku green cloud. The cloud itself is sloping upward, with both its boundaries also pointing higher, confirming strong bullish momentum. Price has decisively broken above resistance and is consolidating above the 1.3900 zone, turning it into short-term support. Two support zones are visible in the chart: the first in the 1.3860–1.3880 range and the second broader support area around 1.3720–1.3740. As long as USD CAD holds above the Ichimoku cloud and maintains higher highs, the bullish trend remains intact, with further upside potential toward 1.3960 and possibly the psychological 1.4000 level. •DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes. Capitalcore

**Aa528a0 0.1 USDT - Sep-25-2025 16:32 0xdeda2480147da3841a332497376f424772bbc713be7be49ceca47bfe391c9924 Примечание: Викторина в чате Profit-Hunters BIZ

Рефбек Selwix 1.5 USDT - Sep-24-2025 15:27 0x22efd05acb3832ad8f8eaa210f5dcabf828f1e1cf6f11167010357d0b4fd8c2d

0.10 USDT 0xdeda2480147da3841a33249737*******ceca47bfe3***924 Sep-25-2025 16:32:57

0.20 USDT-Sep-25-2025 16:32:57 *059a9FcB02d7C458 0xdeda2480147da3841a332497376f424772bbc713be7be49ceca47bfe391c9924 Викторина в чате Profit Hunters Biz

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Спасибо за викторину! *****0551692b8F4e925C6fF 0.1 USDT Bep-20 0xdeda2480147da3841a332497376f424772bbc713be7be49ceca47bfe391c9924 2025-09-25 13:32:57.

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+0.2 USDT 0xAa13BF2bE586CA67BD4F381794AE266C43*** xdeda2480147da3841a332497376f424772bbc713be7be49ceca47bfe391c9924 Sep-25-2025 16:32:57

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Sep-25-2025 16:32:57 +0.20 USDT *7177ee14bb5edffb21e* 0xdeda2480147da3841a332497376f424772bbc713be7be49ceca47bfe391c9924 Спасибо за бонус!