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Date: 17th December 2025. Mixed US Jobs Data, Cooling UK Inflation Keep Rate-Cut Expectations Alive. Markets struggled to find direction after a mixed US jobs report failed to provide a clear signal for policymakers or investors. While job creation slightly exceeded expectations, rising unemployment and downward revisions to previous data reinforced the view that the US labour market is cooling. US Jobs Report Keeps Rate-Cut Expectations Alive November nonfarm payrolls rose by 64,000, slightly above forecasts. However, this was offset by a sharp downward revision to October’s data and a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.6%, the highest level since 2021. The data was seen as too inconsistent to materially change the Federal Reserve’s outlook. Markets continue to expect interest rate cuts in 2026, though pricing suggests a pause in January. Fed funds futures imply just 6 basis points of easing in January, but around 58 basis points of cuts over the full year. US Treasury yields moved both higher and lower during the session before ending slightly lower, reflecting the lack of conviction in the data. Wall Street Mixed as Tech Offsets Broader Weakness US equity futures slipped early Wednesday as investors digested the report. The S&P 500 fell 0.24% to 6,800.26, while the Dow Jones dropped 0.62% to 48,114.26. The Nasdaq gained 0.23% to 23,111.46, supported by strong gains in technology stocks. Tesla surged 3.1% to a record high, driven by optimism around AI and electric vehicles. Nvidia rose 0.8%, while Meta gained 1.5%, helping stabilise the tech sector. Energy stocks underperformed, with Exxon Mobil and Chevron falling more than 2%, as oil prices briefly dipped below $55 per barrel before rebounding. European Markets Drift Lower on Growth Concerns European equities opened weaker amid global risk aversion and expectations that central banks may keep rates steady for longer. The Euro Stoxx 50 fell 0.58% to 5,718.95, pressured by signs of slowing US demand and rising unemployment. France’s CAC 40 closed at 8,106.16, while Germany’s DAX hovered around 24,076.87. The broader STOXX 600 remained flat at 579.80, supported by gains in defensive sectors. Switzerland’s SMI edged up 0.10% to 13,049.75, while Spain’s IBEX 35 dropped 0.70% to 16,921.90. Energy shares initially fell after Brent crude slumped nearly 3% to its lowest level since February 2021, though prices later recovered on supply concerns. Asia Mixed as Investors Await Fresh Signals Asia-Pacific markets delivered mixed performance. Japan’s Nikkei rose 0.43% to 49,597, supported by a weaker yen and encouraging domestic data. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained 0.77% to 25,429.50. In contrast, Singapore’s Straits Times Index slipped 0.19% to 4,570.82, while Indian markets were set for a cautious open as foreign investor flows remained sensitive to global data and trade uncertainty. Commodities and FX: Oil Rebounds, Dollar Recovers Oil prices rebounded sharply after comments from former US President Donald Trump regarding a possible blockade of Venezuelan oil tankers, reversing earlier losses. The US dollar initially weakened, with the DXY index falling to 97.87, but later rebounded to 98.16, gaining against most G10 currencies, particularly the Japanese yen. The British pound strengthened after strong UK wage data. Gold and other safe-haven assets saw modest demand as equity markets drifted and investors awaited further guidance from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and upcoming US data, including retail sales revisions. UK Inflation Miss Fuels Rate-Cut Bets UK inflation cooled more sharply than expected in November, strengthening market expectations for interest rate cuts from the Bank of England. Headline inflation slowed to 3.2%, below forecasts of 3.5% from economists surveyed by Reuters and down from 3.6% in October. This marked the lowest inflation rate since March. Core inflation, which excludes energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco, also fell to 3.2% from 3.4%, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). What Drove Inflation Lower? Additional downward pressure came from: Lower tobacco prices, following a large increase a year earlier Falling women’s clothing prices However, Fitzner noted that while factory gate price increases slowed, the cost of raw materials for businesses continued to rise, highlighting ongoing pressures in parts of the supply chain. Bank of England Cut Seen as Likely The inflation data followed figures showing UK unemployment rose to 5.1%, reinforcing expectations that the Bank of England will cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75% at its meeting on Thursday. Economists expect a 5-4 split among policymakers, with Governor Andrew Bailey likely to cast the deciding vote. Chancellor Rachel Reeves welcomed the drop in inflation but warned that challenges remain. ‘I know families across Britain who are worried about the cost of living will welcome this fall in inflation. But there is more to do,’ she said. With economic growth limited to just 0.1% in Q3, analysts argue that weakening demand and a loosening labour market are creating strong conditions for a rate cut. ‘These figures, alongside a wave of weak data, make a rate cut tomorrow look certain,’ said Suren Thiru, Economics Director at the ICAEW. ‘They also show the UK is moving towards a more manageable inflation environment.’ Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. 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EURGBP H4 Chart Stochastic Indicator Analysis The EUR/GBP forex pair, often called "Chunnel," represents the value relationship between the Euro (EUR) and British Pound Sterling (GBP). Known for reflecting economic health and policy decisions within the Eurozone and the UK, the pair often responds to economic indicators and central bank announcements. Today's upcoming economic indicators include critical inflation data from the UK—such as CPI, Core CPI, PPI, and RPI—significant as they shape the Bank of England’s monetary policy decisions. Stronger-than-expected results will typically bolster the GBP, potentially driving EUR/GBP lower. Conversely, weaker data might provide upward pressure for EUR/GBP. Additionally, Germany's influential ifo Business Climate Index and Eurozone's CPI could further influence the pair’s movements, giving traders vital signals for potential price shifts today. Image Chart Notes: • Chart time-zone is UTC (+02:00) • Candles’ time-frame is 4h. Analyzing the EUR/GBP H4 chart, despite the recent bearish trend in the market, price action demonstrates significant resistance near recent highs, unable to sustain upward momentum and sharply reversing downwards. Currently, the candles have been navigating within a clear bearish channel, suggesting a continuation towards the channel’s midline. Ichimoku indicators support this bearish outlook, with recent price action below the Ichimoku cloud, showing resistance around 0.87605, 0.87708, and immediate bearish sentiment below 0.87531. The stochastic oscillator at 13.76 and 13.28 is in oversold territory, potentially indicating short-term bullish correction before further downside continuation. Moreover, the MACD (-0.00042, 0.00022, 0.00064) is negative, confirming bearish momentum dominance. Therefore, a bullish reversal that breaches the recent highs appears improbable on the first attempt. •DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes. Capitalcore

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