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Date: 13th August 2025. Investors Flock to Riskier Assets After Soft US Inflation Data. US Dollar Retreats as Markets Price in Fed Rate Cuts Global investors have moved into higher-risk assets after US inflation data came in softer than expected, easing stagflation fears and pushing the US dollar (USDindex) lower. The USDIndex dropped reflecting expectations of a near-certain 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in September. Some traders are even speculating on a larger reduction as markets reassess monetary policy. The USDIndex has fallen 0.4% so far today to 97.72, marking its second consecutive day of declines after headline CPI data eased concerns about persistent inflation. Markets are now pricing in a 90% probability of a 25-basis-point cut next month, with some traders even speculating on a larger, 50-basis-point move. The drop in yields and dovish shift in rate expectations have weighed on the greenback, prompting broad gains in other major currencies: EURUSD has risen to 1.1700, GBPUSD is trading at 1.3570, and USDJPY has eased to 147.41. Oil prices corrected as markets focus on the supply outlook, and the front end WTI contract is down -0.8% at USD 62.66 per barrel. Gold benefited from the decline in rates and is trading at $3362.70 per ounce - a gain of 0.4%. The dollar’s retreat was further reinforced by Tuesday’s broad market optimism. Lower inflation reduced stagflation fears, supporting a shift into riskier assets — from equities to cryptocurrencies — while haven flows into the dollar and gold moderated. Equities Soar on Inflation Optimism and Strong Earnings US equity markets are riding a wave of optimism. The S&P 500 has hit fresh record highs, buoyed by resilient corporate earnings and the prospect of looser monetary policy. The index is up almost 30% since April’s trade shock sell-off and 12% since Trump’s election in November. Small-cap stocks, measured by the Russell 2000, are on track for a fourth consecutive month of gains, showing a broad-based recovery beyond large-cap tech. Tech stocks are leading the charge. The “Magnificent Seven,” including Nvidia and Microsoft, have climbed nearly 50% since April, reversing earlier losses and benefiting from renewed interest in artificial intelligence. Megacap tech alone contributed roughly 90% of S&P 500 profit growth in Q2, according to Deutsche Bank strategists. Volatility indicators underscore market confidence. The VIX is at its lowest since December, while bond market volatility, measured by the MOVE Index, is at levels not seen since 2022. FX implied volatility is also at a one-year low, highlighting strong investor appetite for risk. Commodities and Cryptocurrencies Gain Support The risk-on sentiment has extended to commodities and alternative assets. Gold gained 0.6% to $1,366 per ounce, supported by weaker US dollar and declining bond yields. Silver rose 1.8%, and oil prices corrected slightly after the US API reported higher crude inventories, signaling that the summer demand peak may be fading. Cryptocurrencies have also rebounded, with Ether up 55% over the past month and meme stocks regaining popularity. Fed Policy and Market Outlook While markets lean heavily toward near-term easing, the Federal Reserve remains divided. Fed Schmid, a voting member, described policy as “appropriately calibrated” but remains vigilant for signs of weakening demand. Futures markets are pricing in additional rate cuts, while traders await the Jackson Hole symposium for further guidance on monetary policy. Still, futures markets are discounting -23 bps for September, -60 bps by December, and -127 bps in cuts by end-2026. Political pressure is also intensifying. Meanwhile, President Trump continues to push for immediate rate cuts and criticized Fed Chair Powell, adding a political dimension to market uncertainty. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent added that the Fed should remain open to a larger cut next month. Conclusion The combination of softer US inflation data, expectations of Fed rate cuts, and resilient earnings has fueled a wave of optimism in global markets. Traders are rotating into equities, commodities, and cryptocurrencies, while the US dollar remains under pressure. While risks from geopolitical tensions and rising yields persist, investor confidence remains high, setting the tone for continued market rallies in the near term. For now the confidence that soft inflation and resilient growth will keep risk appetite alive, at least until the September decision forces the next big rethink. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.v

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