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Спасибо за бонус + 0.1 USDT - Mar-03-2026 16:23 PM UTC 0xb6d3bf6888eab1f55fbaec2cdffac3ee375d75398f29b85daf49df98fdfae4cc Викторина в чате РН

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Date: 4th March 2026. Asian Markets Plunge as Iran War Sparks Energy Shock Fears. Asian equities suffered their worst selloff in nearly a year, with South Korea experiencing its largest crash on record, as escalating war between the US, Israel, and Iran triggered panic across global markets. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 4.5%, while South Korea’s Kospi plunged 12.1%, its sharpest decline in history. The collapse marks a dramatic reversal for what had been one of the world’s strongest-performing markets in 2025. Just weeks ago, the Kospi was celebrated as a global AI-driven outperformer. Heavyweight chipmakers such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix had powered gains on optimism around artificial intelligence demand. That narrative unraveled rapidly: Samsung shares dropped 11.7% SK Hynix fell 9.6% The Korea Exchange triggered circuit breakers The tech-heavy Kosdaq tumbled nearly 14% South Korea’s vulnerability stems from two critical exposures: heavy reliance on global trade and deep dependence on Middle Eastern energy imports. Roughly a fifth of the world’s oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint now effectively disrupted by escalating hostilities. Region-Wide Shockwaves The selloff spread quickly: Nikkei 225 fell 3.9% Hang Seng Index dropped 2.9% Shanghai Composite Index declined 1.2% Taiwan’s Taiex slid 4.4% Bangkok stocks plunged 8% According to strategists, Asia’s acute exposure to Middle Eastern oil flows makes the region especially sensitive to energy price spikes. Rising crude, a stronger US dollar, and geopolitical uncertainty have created what one analyst called a “toxic cocktail” for risk assets. Oil Surge Intensifies Market Anxiety Oil prices extended gains as attacks continued across the region. Brent crude climbed above $82 per barrel after rallying roughly 12% over two days, the largest surge since 2020. West Texas Intermediate hovered near $76. The rapid move reflects fears of supply disruptions after Iraq began shutting major oil fields, and Saudi storage facilities filled rapidly. The effective closure of Hormuz has severely disrupted tanker traffic. Insurance costs for shipping have surged, potentially adding $5–$15 per barrel in transport-related expenses. President Donald Trump announced that the US would provide political risk insurance and, if necessary, naval escorts to tankers transiting the strait. However, analysts caution that naval escorts may themselves become targets, limiting the effectiveness of the plan. Brent’s prompt spread widened to $3.38 in backwardation, a strong signal of immediate supply tightness. Dollar Strength Adds Pressure The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index posted its strongest two-day gain in nearly a year before stabilizing. Asian currencies fell to their weakest levels since January, though China intervened to anchor the yuan. A stronger dollar compounds stress for Asian economies by: Raising import costs Increasing debt servicing pressure Tightening financial conditions US Treasury yields climbed as inflation fears resurfaced, with the 10-year yield hovering around 4.07%. Why This Shock Feels Different Markets previously relied on what traders dubbed the “TACO trade” , short for “Trump Always Chickens Out”, a belief that sharp market declines would prompt policy reversals. This conflict, however, is military in nature and carries unpredictable escalation risks beyond traditional policy maneuvering. Investors cannot price a clear endgame, raising fears of a prolonged disruption to global energy flows. Inflation Risk Returns: Higher oil prices threaten to reintroduce inflation pressures globally. In the US, gasoline prices have already risen to $3.11 per gallon on average. A sustained energy shock could complicate plans by the Federal Reserve to cut rates in 2026, potentially keeping borrowing costs elevated and pressuring equities further. Is This Capitulation or Contained Panic? Despite the sharp selloff, futures point to only modest weakness in the US and potential stabilization in Europe, suggesting for now the shock remains concentrated in Asia. Importantly, Asian stocks remain up approximately 4.7% year-to-date after a 25% surge in 2025, meaning some of the move reflects profit-taking from extended positioning. However, markets remain highly headline-driven. If oil continues to climb or Hormuz disruptions worsen, further downside in Asia appears likely. For now, traders are watching three key indicators: Crude oil stability above $80 Confirmation of tanker traffic resuming Dollar strength persistence Until clarity emerges, volatility is likely to remain elevated, particularly in energy-dependent Asian markets. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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USDCHF Technical Analysis Range Breakout Retest Levels USD/CHF measures how many Swiss francs it takes to buy one US dollar, pairing the global reserve currency with Switzerland’s classic safe haven. Commonly nicknamed the Swissie, it’s heavily driven by relative interest rate expectations, risk sentiment, and macro surprises. In today’s USD-CHF daily chart technical and fundamental analysis, markets will key in on ADP employment, S&P Global Services PMI, and ISM Services PMI for US growth and Fed rate-path signals, with the Fed Beige Book adding tone; on the CHF side, Swiss CPI can quickly shift SNB expectations, while comments from SNB Vice Chairman Antoine Martin may add policy color—stronger US data with softer Swiss inflation supports USD/CHF upside, while weaker US prints or hotter Swiss CPI and a hawkish SNB read supports CHF and pressures USD/CHF price action. Image Chart Notes: • Chart time-zone is UTC (+02:00) • Candles’ time-frame is 4h. On the USD/CHF H4 chart, the long-run bias has been mostly bearish with extended consolidation, but after a sharp drop, the pair ranged between 0.76476 and 0.77942 before breaking above, raising the odds of either a new bullish leg or a breakout failure back into the range. Fibonacci shows price near 0.236 around 0.78057 as the first pullback support, with 0.382 near 0.77755 as the next key level if sellers push lower; holding above 0.77942 keeps upside pressure toward 0.78545. Bollinger Bands 70 have expanded and may start narrowing as volatility cools, while Williams percent R 14 at minus 31 41 and Stochastic 14 1 3 at 68 59 and 71 10 reflect bullish momentum that could enter a consolidation phase—so the clean price action read is defend-the-breakout for continuation, or lose it and rotate back toward 0.77755. •DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes. Capitalcore

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Date: 3rd March 2026. Oil, the Dollar and Geopolitical Shockwaves: What Markets Are Really Pricing. The escalation in the Middle East following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets has reignited volatility across global markets. At first glance, the rebound in the U.S. dollar appears to signal the return of a classic “flight-to-safety” dynamic. However, the underlying drivers tell a more complex story, one rooted less in panic and more in energy economics. Since President Donald Trump returned to office, the dollar has often struggled to reclaim its traditional haven status during periods of geopolitical uncertainty. Policy unpredictability and domestic political friction had dampened foreign appetite for aggressive dollar accumulation. Yet this time, the greenback strengthened broadly after the weekend’s military escalation. The reason appears to be structural rather than emotional. Energy Is the Real Catalyst Oil markets reacted immediately. Brent crude initially surged nearly 10% before stabilising around $77–78 per barrel, still roughly $5 higher than prior levels. While that move is notable, it does not yet constitute a full-scale energy shock. Economists at Barclays estimate that every sustained $10 increase in crude prices trims approximately 0.2 percentage points from global growth. By that measure, the current rise remains manageable. However, forecasts of oil moving toward or above $100 per barrel would significantly alter the macroeconomic outlook. The critical variable is duration. If disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 30% of global crude and 20% of LNG flows, persist for weeks rather than days, markets will begin pricing a more prolonged inflationary and growth shock. Why the Dollar Strengthened, But Not as a Haven Unlike past geopolitical crises, this dollar rally is less about capital fleeing into safety and more about relative economic positioning. The United States is now a net exporter of petroleum products. In contrast, major economies across Europe and Asia remain heavily dependent on imported energy. When oil prices rise, the relative economic damage falls more heavily on importers. Japan, for example, relies significantly on Middle Eastern crude, with a substantial portion passing through Hormuz. The Nikkei 225 fell more than 2% as investors priced in energy vulnerability. Meanwhile, the yen weakened rather than strengthened, a clear departure from traditional safe-haven behaviour. China also faces exposure to disrupted oil flows, contributing to weakness in the yuan. In Europe, benchmark gas prices surged intraday by nearly 50% before settling about 35% higher, the highest level in more than a year. The euro fell to a one-month low as traders assessed the growth risks tied to energy supply pressures. The takeaway is clear: this is not a conventional “risk-off” event. It is an energy-driven repricing of relative economic exposure. Equity Markets Show Resilience Despite early volatility, U.S. equity markets demonstrated surprising stability. The S&P 500 briefly declined by over 1% before recovering to close nearly flat. Energy and defence sectors outperformed. Shares of Exxon Mobil advanced alongside crude prices, while defence contractor Northrop Grumman rallied strongly. Even growth stocks such as Nvidia contributed positively, highlighting that investors are not yet pricing a systemic risk event. Historically, Middle East conflicts have only produced sustained equity declines when oil prices spike sharply and remain elevated. Strategists suggest that crude would likely need to push well above $100 per barrel to materially threaten the broader U.S. market outlook. Inflation vs Growth: The Policy Question Another dimension shaping currency moves is inflation. With U.S. core inflation still running above 3%, higher oil prices could complicate the Federal Reserve’s policy path. Rather than acting as a recessionary shock, energy strength may reinforce expectations that U.S. interest rates remain elevated for longer. That combination, energy exporter status and higher-for-longer rate expectations, provides structural support for the dollar. However, a feedback loop risk exists. As oil prices rise in dollar terms, the dollar itself tends to appreciate. A stronger dollar then makes energy even more expensive for overseas buyers, intensifying economic strain abroad and reinforcing dollar strength further. This self-reinforcing dynamic is not a scenario policymakers would welcome. US–China Diplomacy Adds a Counterbalance Amid the geopolitical tensions, trade diplomacy remains active. U.S. and Chinese officials are scheduled to meet ahead of a potential summit between President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping. Constructive discussions around aircraft purchases, agricultural trade, or tariff adjustments could help stabilise risk sentiment. While separate from the Middle East conflict, progress on trade could offset some of the broader uncertainty currently weighing on global markets. Key Scenarios for Traders Scenario 1: Conflict Short & Contained Oil stabilises near $75–80 Dollar strength moderates Equities remain supported Scenario 2: Prolonged Supply Disruption Oil moves toward $90–100+ Stronger dollar via energy loop Pressure on EUR, JPY, Asian currencies Inflation expectations rise Scenario 3: Diplomatic De-escalation + Trade Progress Energy premium fades Gold retraces Risk appetite returns The Bigger Picture: The Energy-Dollar Feedback Loop One of the most important dynamics to monitor is the potential self-reinforcing loop: Oil rises Dollar strengthens Energy becomes more expensive globally (priced in USD) Overseas economies weaken The dollar strengthens further This is not a scenario policymakers would welcome — particularly as part of the Trump administration’s longer-term goal has been reducing dollar overvaluation. What Traders Should Watch Now At this stage, markets are not pricing catastrophe. They are pricing energy risk with contained spillover. The most important variables remain: The duration of military escalation The stability of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz Whether Brent crude approaches $90–100 Shifts in inflation expectations Tone and progress in US–China trade discussions If the conflict proves short-lived and energy flows remain largely intact, volatility may gradually subside. If supply disruptions extend for weeks, the dollar’s strength could intensify as energy-importing economies face deeper growth pressures. For now, oil remains the leading indicator. Currencies, equities, and bonds are reacting to it, not the other way around. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.