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Date: 12th December 2025. Why Is the USD Declining? The US Dollar Index is moving upwards but only after a bearish price gap. The bearish price gap saw the US Dollar Index instantly fall close to a two-month low. As a result, the price of Gold is trading significantly higher than the past few days. However, why is the US Dollar taking a hit when the Fed is indicating a pause? What the Fed says and What Markets Believe Can Be Different Investors continue to digest the outcome of yesterday’s Federal Reserve meeting, where policymakers lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75-3.50% and announced the reinstatement of Treasury bond purchases totalling $40 billion. The QE programme being reinstated is a key reason why the US Dollar is weakening, as it is deemed to be a dovish move. This also indicates that the FOMC can see risks to the economy, government debt and employment. At the same time, officials signalled the possibility of pausing the easing cycle, emphasising the need for clearer labour-market and inflation data, both of which remain key concerns, before taking further action. The decision reflected a divided committee, passing by a vote of nine to three. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid opposed the rate cut, while Board member Stephen Miran argued for a larger 50-point reduction. Comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell struck a balanced tone. He noted that an additional rate hike is not the baseline scenario, yet indicated that rates are now within a ‘neutral’ zone, giving the Fed room to adopt a wait-and-see stance to assess the impact of recent moves on the economy. FOMC projections currently indicate only one rate cut next year. Market participants, however, still expect two or more. This mismatch is a major reason the Dollar is declining. Institutions and investors are not aligned with the Fed’s outlook for the next 12 months. Economists also highlight very low oil prices. These prices are likely to help keep inflation contained over the coming months. US Dollar Index - Future Pricing If the NFP Change and Unemployment Rate indicate a weaker employment sector, the pricing for the upcoming months is likely to change quickly. Particularly if the inflation rate also remains at the same level or lower. Under these conditions, the US Dollar may continue to fall and Gold to rise. HFM - USDX 15-Minute Chart A key support level for the US Dollar Index in the medium term is 97.40. Currently, the Dollar is retracing upwards but technical indicators continue to maintain a bearish bias. Key Takeaways: The Dollar is weakening because markets view the Fed’s renewed $40B QE programme as a dovish signal. A major driver of Dollar pressure is the clear mismatch between the Fed’s forecast of one rate cut and markets expecting two or more. Rising risks in growth, inflation, and employment are highlighted by a divided FOMC vote and persistently low oil prices. If upcoming NFP and inflation data soften, the Dollar may continue to fall while Gold gains further momentum. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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USDT-BEP20: 0xaaafc7edbe5287d2ca197732622f405ad93a89b8726d8fb663ae79dbb5e22921 Dec-11-2025 07:38:21 PM UTC 0.51 BSC-USD

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USDT-BEP20: 0xf9ee912afa4cb407c8328c16dd95bae44946e3990c5e55c553e6bad945342f2c Dec-11-2025 07:05:48 PM UTC 2.85 BSC-USD

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