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Date: 9th December 2025. Goldman Sachs Says 64% Expect S&P 500 Gains in 2026. The market is also fully pricing in an interest-rate cut from the Federal Reserve tomorrow evening. However, rising yields indicate that investors are cautious about the central bank opting for a ‘hawkish cut’. The US 10-Year Treasury yields rose to their highest level since September which prompted the stock market and Gold to dip. A dip in the price of both Gold and the stock market is understandable considering the busy two weeks ahead. Over the past two months the US has not released any economic data applying more importance to the upcoming data. The key data that can determine upcoming trends are the NFP figures for October and November and US inflation. The forward guidance provided by the Federal Reserve will also play a major role. Forecasts - S&P 500 Goldman Sachs has released survey results from Wall Street analysts and traders. The survey outlines their expectations for how the S&P 500 will perform by the end of 2026. According to the data, 25% of respondents expect the index to finish between 7,000-7,250. Another 25% see it ending between 7,250-7,500, while 14% expect it to close above 7,500. The survey also shows that 36% believe the index will end with no gains or a decline. HFM - S&P 500 Chart The S&P 500 declined by 0.21% by the end of the day on Monday. However, the price during the US session was trading up to 0.62% lower before recovering. Even when taking the decline into consideration, the price is still trading above the 75-Bar EMA on the 2-hour chart which is key for those wishing to trade long. On smaller timeframes, the price also recently rose above the 200-bar SMA which is also vital. The stocks that pressured the S&P 500 most on Monday were Alphabet, Tesla and Netflix. While NVIDIA and Microsoft, which both rose more than 1.50%, were the key reasons the S&P 500 was able to recover the key losses. This morning Alphabet stocks are trading slightly higher, Netflix again lower and Tesla with no major change. If the S&P 500 is to recover it is vital that at least 65% of the stocks holding the highest weight increase in value. For the medium to longer term, investors wishing to speculate the upward price movement will be hoping for three key points. The first is that the Federal Reserve does not opt to provide a ‘hawkish’ guidance for the next quarter. For example, cutting rates but indicating that another cut is unlikely for January 2026. In addition to this, for the NFP data to come in as per expectations and for US inflation to remain at 3.00% or below. If the upcoming days play out as mentioned above, the S&P 500 could potentially rise to above $7,000 as 64% of the market believes in 2026. Technical Analysis - Gold Similar to the S&P 500, Gold’s price will depend largely on the Fed, CPI and NFP. Expectations of monetary easing have already lifted gold by 1.2% over the past week, keeping the broader trend positive as traders position for a weaker US Dollar. However, the FOMC remains divided. Chair Jerome Powell continues to warn against overly optimistic rate-cut expectations, even as inflation cools and political pressure builds. The University of Michigan’s latest survey showed one-year inflation expectations easing to 4.1% and five-year to 3.2%. Additional support for Gold may come if the Bank of England cuts rates on 18 December. Furthermore, geopolitical risks persist, from the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict to potential instability in South America. If the US Dollar continues to decline and the economic data support the Federal Reserve in opting to continue frequent rate cuts, Gold may continue to rise. If this is the case, traders may potentially aim for $4,385.00 which is close to the commodity’s all-time high. However, if news and the US Dollar pressures Gold downwards, traders may aim for a price between $3,915 and $3,995. HFM - Gold (XAUUSD) Chart In the short term, the JOLTS Job Openings will influence today’s volatility. A lower figure may prompt a renewed upward trend. Key Takeaways: Markets expect a Fed rate cut, but rising Treasury yields show investors fear a potential ‘hawkish cut’. A hawkish cut would pressure stocks and Gold. Upcoming US data: NFP, inflation, and Fed forward guidance. The three releases will be crucial in determining short-term and medium-term market direction. Goldman Sachs’ survey shows mixed S&P 500 expectations for 2026. 64% of the market forecast gains, while 36% expect a flat or negative performance. Gold’s trend remains positive on easing expectations, but its outlook hinges on the US Dollar, Fed policy and inflation data. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Nikkei H4 technical setup and trendline test The JAP225 (Nikkei 225), often called the Nikkei or Japan 225 Index, is a leading Japanese equity benchmark widely traded in the forex and index CFD markets as the JPY-correlated JAP225 pair. As traders position for both equity momentum and currency-driven volatility, the index frequently reflects shifts in global risk sentiment and Bank of Japan policy expectations. Today’s fundamental outlook for JAP225 is shaped by a dense cluster of USD-sensitive labor-market releases—NFIB Small Business Index, ADP weekly employment estimates, and two JOLTS job-openings releases due to prior delays—which collectively act as key leading indicators for U.S. economic momentum and inflation pressure. Stronger-than-forecast U.S. labor metrics typically lift USD strength, potentially weighing on risk assets like JAP225, while weaker data cools expectations for rate hikes and supports equities. Meanwhile, Japan’s Machine Tool Orders and BOJ Governor Ueda’s speech today could introduce JPY volatility; any hawkish tone from Ueda or improving domestic manufacturing orders may boost JPY, creating downward pressure on JAP225 in forex-linked flows. Overall, today’s mix of high-impact U.S. jobs data and BOJ-related commentary positions the index for elevated volatility on both fundamental and policy fronts. Image Chart Notes: • Chart time-zone is UTC (+02:00) • Candles’ time-frame is 4h. On the H4 chart, the price has been moving in a slight bearish descending-channel structure after a sharp and extended bullish trend, yet the recent candles show that the price has reacted strongly to the long-term support line that has been tested multiple times before. The price is currently hovering around the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, which aligns closely with the Bollinger Bands middle band, suggesting equilibrium before a potential breakout. The support zone is positioned near the lower Bollinger Band, reinforcing demand in this region, and the red ascending trendline shows buyers attempting to push price upward toward the channel resistance. Additionally, the %R(14) at -35.49 indicates moderately bullish momentum without being overbought, supporting the possibility of a continuation toward the 0.618 retracement at 51039 if the breakout succeeds. However, rejection from the descending-channel resistance may trigger another corrective wave back toward 49500–48500, making this zone pivotal for the next price action move on the JAP225 H4 daily chart technical analysis. •DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes. Capitalcore

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