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Date: 8th July 2025. AUD Rallies as RBA Chooses a Surprise Rate Pause. The Reserve Bank of Australia kept its official cash rate at 3.85%, surprisingly avoiding another interest rate cut. Previously, analysts were expecting Australia’s central bank to again cut interest rates by a further 0.25% to 3.60%. As a result, the Australian Dollar is the day’s best-performing currency so far. AUDUSD - RBA Keeps Rates Unchanged The Australian Dollar rose in value due to the surprisingly hawkish central bank; however, traders tend to speculate a bullish currency against a poorly performing currency. By doing so, traders can avoid two conflicting currencies. The worst-performing currencies over the past 30 days are the US Dollar and the Japanese Yen. Therefore, the AUDUSD and AUDJPY are particularly interesting. The AUDUSD rose up to 1.05% during this morning’s Asian Session and is forming its first bullish candlestick after 3 days of consecutive declines. The US Dollar continues to come under pressure from its trade policy. The latest developments are related to Japan and South Korea, which will see a 25% tariff imposed from August 1st. Japan has the 7th largest deficit with the US, and South Korea has the 8th largest. Furthermore, investors had been shorting the US Dollar over the past 2 weeks over expectations of a dovish central bank. According to experts, the US President is likely to put in place a chairman, which is known for his dovish nature and is in line with the current ‘Trump-economics’, but this idea has come under pressure from the latest employment data. The latest employment data read significantly stronger than previous projections. AUDJPY - JPY Struggles Due To US Tariffs The Japanese Yen is one of the worst-performing currencies of the day, primarily due to President Trump confirming 25% tariffs on Japan. The AUDJPY rose to its highest level since February 21st. Following May's surprisingly low inflation and a deceleration in first-quarter economic growth, forecasts for a rate cut became almost universal. In regards to the Reserve Bank of Australia, according to economists, the central bank is likely to pause rate cuts for 3-4 months before continuing to cut rates towards the end of the year. According to the Governor of the RBA, the committee is looking to wait for confirmation that indeed inflation has fallen and will remain low before cutting rates. This confirms that the RBA is looking to cut, but the timing will depend on inflation over the next months. The country’s inflation rate is currently 2.4%. If the rate remains at this level for a further 2 months or falls even lower at the next release, a rate cut will become more likely. In terms of technical analysis, the price of the AUDJPY is trading significantly higher than the main moving averages. This indicates the level of demand but also prompts caution as investors consider if the price is overbought in the short term. However, if the price declines back to the 95.291 support level, the AUDJPY will no longer be overbought. As a result, traders may take into consideration buying at the discounted price. The performance of the AUDJPY will also depend on tomorrow’s rate decision from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, as well as the Federal Reserve’s FOMC Meeting Minutes. If the RBNZ decide to cut as per current expectations, the AUD may find further support. Key Takeaway Points: RBA surprisingly held interest rates at 3.85%, despite expectations for a cut, causing the AUD to strengthen significantly. The US Dollar (USD) and Japanese Yen (JPY) are under pressure due to renewed US trade tariff threats (25% on Japan/South Korea from August 1st) and expectations of dovish US monetary policy. AUDUSD and AUDJPY are favoured pairs as traders look to go long on the strong AUD against underperforming currencies. AUDJPY hit a high not seen since February 21st. The RBA needs further inflation confirmation before resuming rate cuts later this year, indicating a potential pause for 3-4 months. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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USDJPY Forex Pair Resistance Levels and Correction Forecast The USD-JPY forex pair, also known as the "Gopher," represents the exchange rate between the US Dollar and the Japanese Yen. This pair is a widely traded currency pair reflecting economic relationships and market sentiment between the US and Japan. Today's upcoming news includes important releases from the US NFIB Small Business Index and consumer credit figures from the Federal Reserve, indicating economic health and consumer confidence. A positive reading in these indicators typically strengthens the USD. Meanwhile, from Japan, key data include bank lending figures, the adjusted current account, and the Eco Watchers Current Index from the Ministry of Finance and Cabinet Office, respectively, which indicate consumer and business confidence. Positive results can strengthen the Yen, creating potential volatility and trading opportunities in USD/JPY. Image Chart Notes: • Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00) • Candles’ time-frame is 4h. Analyzing the USD-JPY H4 chart, after testing the upper resistance line of the ascending channel, the price appears poised for a correction before potentially retesting resistance levels. Bollinger Bands have widened, signaling increased volatility and supporting the likelihood of a price correction. If a correction occurs, the middle line of the channel could serve as support. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates overbought conditions, suggesting potential bearish momentum. Meanwhile, the MACD histogram bars are diminishing, hinting at decreasing bullish strength, which further confirms the likelihood of a short-term correction. •DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes. Capitalcore

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