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Date: 1st September 2025. Euro Strengthens Amid Dollar Weakness, ECB Stability, and French Political Uncertainty. The Euro is the day’s best-performing currency, while the US Dollar is currently struggling to maintain its value. Due to the momentum, the EURUSD is trading at a 9-day high after the exchange rate rose 0.33% during this morning’s Asian Session. Traders should also note that the US is currently closed for the Labour Day Bank Holiday. EURUSD - The Euro’s Bullish Trend The Euro continues to be 2025’s best-performing currency as investors look to mitigate risk away from the Dollar. The main alternative to the US Dollar is the Euro, which continues to be supported by the expansionary fiscal policy announced earlier in the year. Some of the latest news impacting the Euro is coming from Germany’s inflation data and the political turmoil in France. Germany’s preliminary August inflation data showed mixed results. The consumer price index slowed to 0.1% MoM (from 0.3%) and rose to 2.2% YoY (from 2.0%), slightly above forecasts. The harmonised index also rose to 2.1% YoY, higher than expected. While inflation ticked up, it remained close to the ECB’s 2% target, suggesting rates may stay unchanged until at least November. The data shows stability and continues to support the Euro. However, European investors are also closely monitoring the political turmoil which continues to grip France. French Prime Minister Bayrou has announced a confidence vote scheduled for September 8th. The move was a result of the government’s inability to agree on a budget. Businesses within France are warning that political instability, which continues to reappear, including growing opposition to Bayrou’s austerity plans, can drag the country towards recession. ECB President Christine Lagarde called a potential French government collapse ‘worrying’ for the eurozone, stressing fiscal discipline while assuring that the banking sector remains resilient. The development is not yet hurting the Euro. However, if the instability grows, economists warn that the Euro can potentially witness a different trend. PCE Index and The US Dollar Investors are closely watching the July personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index, a key indicator for the US Federal Reserve. The index eased from 0.3% to 0.2% MoM and held steady at 2.6% YoY, while the core measure rose from 2.8% to 2.9%. Overall, inflationary pressures are building amid rising trade tariffs. However, uncertainty remains over future moves, as most officials stress that decisions will depend on incoming data. Fed Governor Christopher Waller, however, signalled he expects a shift to a more dovish stance as early as next month. Currently, most economists expect 2 rate cuts in 2025. Meanwhile, Fed official Lisa Cook, dismissed by President Trump, is challenging her removal in court, arguing it was unlawful and based on clerical errors in mortgage records. Trump has asked the court to validate his actions. The tensions between the Federal Reserve and the White House, as well as the expectations of interest rate cuts, are pressuring the US Dollar Index. The US Dollar Index has fallen 1.26% over the past 2 weeks and is pressuring the support level at 97.45. EURUSD - Technical Analysis EURUSD 4-Hour Chart On most timeframes, the EURUSD is obtaining indications of a bullish trend on momentum-based indicators. However, the resistance level at 1.17310 is key and buy signals may remain weak if the level remains intact. However, the upward price movement will also largely depend on the expectations of rate cuts and the political situation in France. Key Takeaways: The Euro is the strongest currency today, with EURUSD hitting a 9-day high amid Dollar weakness and a US holiday. Germany’s inflation data remains near the ECB’s 2% target, supporting the Euro and signalling stable monetary policy. Political instability in France, including Prime Minister Bayrou’s upcoming confidence vote, is being closely monitored. However, the development has not yet pressured the Euro. US rate cut expectations and Fed tensions, including Lisa Cook’s legal challenge, are pressuring the Dollar. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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