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Date: 16th July 2025. Mixed US CPI Data Clouds Fed Outlook While Global Markets React to Tariff Jitters. US financial markets remained choppy following the release of June's CPI report, which presented a mixed inflation picture. While headline consumer prices rose 0.3%—the largest gain since January—core inflation cooled slightly, increasing by just 0.2%. This combination has left investors and policymakers without a clear signal on the direction of the US economy, tempering hopes for a Federal Reserve rate cut in the near term. Rate cut expectations for the September FOMC meeting slipped to 60%, down from 68% earlier this week. Fed fund futures now reflect a lower implied rate of -14 basis points for September, compared to -18.8 bps after the June jobs report and -29 bps following weaker-than-expected ADP data on July 2. The probability of a second cut in December has also decreased, with the December contract pricing in -44 bps, down from a fully priced -50 bps earlier. Inflation Drivers and Tariff Impact June's CPI surge was driven by a 0.9% increase in energy prices, including a 1.0% rise in gasoline costs. Other contributors included medical care services (+0.6%), tobacco (+0.5%), and apparel (+0.4%). Meanwhile, vehicle prices dragged on the index, with new vehicles falling by 0.3% and used vehicles declining by 0.7%. Year-over-year, headline CPI rose to 2.7%, while core CPI edged up to 2.9%. Economists attribute much of the price pressure to the Trump administration’s tariff increases, particularly in sectors like coffee, furniture, and pharmaceuticals. As Fed Chair Jerome Powell previously warned, the inflationary effects of these tariffs are beginning to show, and could continue building into the third quarter, especially as the August 1 tariff deadline approaches. Treasury Yields Rise, Nasdaq Hits Record Despite the cooler core reading, Treasury yields rose sharply, with the 10-year yield reaching 4.495%, the highest since June 11. This movement was partially driven by technical selling and growing concerns that tariff-induced price hikes could spill over into PCE inflation data. Meanwhile, the tech-heavy Nasdaq rallied to fresh record highs, supported by a strong performance from AI bellwether Nvidia. Global Central Banks in Focus The Bank of England is also facing inflation challenges. UK inflation unexpectedly accelerated, with headline CPI rising to 3.6% year-over-year and core CPI climbing to 3.7%. Services inflation held steady at a concerning 4.7%. BoE policymaker Catherine Mann warned that job insecurity is driving consumer caution and increased savings, which may weigh on growth sectors like retail and hospitality. While another rate cut in August is still likely, these inflation numbers may reduce the likelihood of a rapid easing cycle. Asia, Oil, and Commodities Asian equity markets were broadly under pressure as rising US yields and a stronger dollar weighed on investor sentiment. The dollar climbed to its highest against the yen since early April, driven by speculation that the Fed may delay any easing. Mainland Chinese blue chips fell 0.5%, while South Korea's KOSPI declined 1%. Taiwan’s tech-heavy index bucked the trend, rising 0.9%. Meanwhile, oil prices hovered near recent lows, with Brent crude trading at $68.96 a barrel. Despite rising global inventories, Morgan Stanley noted that much of the buildup occurred outside OECD nations, limiting its impact on futures pricing. The bank retained its Brent forecast at $65 for Q4 2025, but warned that post-summer demand might not be enough to prevent a renewed surplus. Gold regained ground, trading near $3,340 an ounce, supported by continued geopolitical tensions and strong central bank buying. Bitcoin, meanwhile, rebounded 1% after a recent pullback from its record high above $123,000. Looking Ahead Investors are now turning their attention to upcoming producer price data for additional clues on inflationary trends. Meanwhile, earnings season is ramping up, with mixed results from major banks like JPMorgan and Citigroup and more reports due from Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Bank of America. As global markets continue to digest a flurry of data and geopolitical developments, the coming weeks may provide more clarity on central bank policy paths and broader economic trends. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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USDT-TRC20: 541932214c6a484da61dfab9685b09fcacabee9259c14a2eda7af564b0618af6 2025-07-16 12:49:15 10 Tether USD USDT-TRC20: 21be7bf3eff5ed5df950e5f8616f2ed4960698e7f74287ee7ac0bd97905b2b65 2025-07-15 10:37:15 (UTC) 6.3 Tether USD
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Dogecoin: 8e271aa8fb896217e9e85c082a0fa830fcb98cb3c82197ff158d4e5457987d6c 2025-07-16 08:22:19 UTC 11 DOGE (~$2.11)
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Paid us: 18 USDT : Jul-15-2025 04:43:08 AM UTC https://bscscan.com/tx/0xf2bf24d3df715b45ca2feaae32a6f3717a657a6fdb9183534f7727d8a7d1e7f6